Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
bemused. i think that kind of simplistic polling can be misleading. if it was that easy .. well it would be that easy. but while Rudd is not in the role he’s not pissing people off (which all politcians do) and the numbers could quite possibly be a bit of ‘the grass is always greener’… bit like when things are tough with a girlfriend and all of a sudden the ex starts to look good again and you wonder why you left her.
to make the change the focus needs to be on how it would be treated by the press and how his collegues would be treated by the press. because at the end of the day, he still needs his collegues to win their seats too.
i just think it would take months to wade through all that regurgitation of the past that the media would love doing.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:16 pm
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/labor-accuses-news-reporter-steve-lewis/story-e6frf7jo-1226409531971
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:16 pm
bg:
Sorry, not sure what you’re referring to.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Just popped in to say I think Sam Dastyari is showing the start of Labors revival.
NSW right will lose its legendary power.
This can only be healthy for Labor.
I personally think it is too late. However I do hope I am wrong.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:17 pm
dwh
I stand corrected. Then again how many people actually read the Oz?
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:18 pm
bg. no i haven’t been lewised. i dont read anything he writes. i actually dont even know which murdoch rag he belongs to. i heard of those stories via others but they certainly didn’t have me taking them seriously. not for a moment.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Bemused
Tony
by spur212 on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Palmer is so arrogant, putting the reef in danger is not newsworthy.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/14044563/pollution-dump-not-newsworthy-palmer/
by Schnappi on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Flicking channels and caught some of Shorten on Lateline. Yeah, nah. Pretty good on Fairfax and Ashby (I missed some of him on Ashby). Missed an opportunity on boats. Alberici, brought up the old “Howard stopped the boats” meme and asked why not now?
It’s too complicated to go over all the reasons why then is not now, you can’t sell that as a grab. But the simple point he should make is: Abbott says they’ll turn back the boats where it’s safe to do so. What happens to the asylum seekers when it’s not safe to do so? And what happens to the asylum seekers who get turned back? Those people don’t just disappear. What does he think will happen there?
Half a plan is no plan at all. You can’t compromise with that.
by Aguirre on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:20 pm
I tend to look at them all when there is a story breaking to try and get a balance of views. I also tend to put more faith in the ABC over other media outlets.
by davidwh on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:20 pm
yep
you have been murdoched and you dont even realise it
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:20 pm
How far along are the Greens in their pledge to stamp out mandatory detention?
And that reminds me. Hopefully we see a pollster conduct an AS poll in Melbourne. Give the Greens a taste of that whole popularly elected stuff.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Dan Gulberry @ 3186
Well as davidwh says, it’s not News Corp
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/james-ashby-fixing-black-mark-of-peter-slipper-link-court-told/story-fn59niix-1226409153824
by Gauss on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:21 pm
RUDDSTORATION ALERT
Will I, won’t I, quote Emily Bronte on obsessive love???
by Rossmore on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:21 pm
yes i think Palmers nice guy routine was all about him wanting to pollute the reef, not Tony or Ashby. His money and business come first.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:22 pm
confessions @ 3189
Your first cognitive problem is that most who support a return of Rudd are not in any sense ‘cultists’ but are loyal party members or supporters who will work for the party whoever the leader is. That loyalty is not tied to a particular leader. I know you have difficulty with this concept.
A Rudd government now would function perfectly well and a lot of the wounds would be healed. If there were a small number reluctant to serve than that would simply facilitate the advancement of Mike Kelly, Andrew Leigh, Mark Dreyfus, Ed Husic and other talented individuals.
The myth that no-one in Cabinet would serve with Rudd is just that, a myth. The last place the myth will die is here on PB when you are overtaken by events.
I can’t wait to read your posts then.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:22 pm
if you say so bg.
(what is it with people on this site and their belief they know the truth?!?!?! bizarro!)
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:23 pm
If true that’s very disappointing. Alberici is better than that in my view.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:23 pm
DG,
Wish I could have been there, but for me it as Geldof at the Nelson Arms in Hobart 1993 didn’t have to be in the room.
BTW, you are a WA PBer, I’m am there next month any good eating places in South Perth.
by Augustus on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:23 pm
@bluegreen
Coalition will attack Rudd again, just like they did round one.
They can’t attack a woman, unless they want to piss off half of the population (the media can though they get away with it).
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:24 pm
RUDDSTORATION
Damn it! I will, but a new quote tonight:
“My great miseries in this world have been Heathcliff’s miseries, and I watched and felt each from the beginning: my great thought in living is himself. If all else perished, and he remained, I should still continue to be; and if all else remained, and he were annihilated, the universe would turn to a mighty stranger: I should not seem a part of it.”
― Emily Brontë
by Rossmore on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:24 pm
bg
Good points on the Murdoch Ruddstoration push.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Confessions
Functioning effective government in regards to Rudd: I refer you to how the GFC was managed.
One of the implications of a Rudd return would be both releasing and implementing the Carr/Bracks/Faulkner review. This would make both the party and the government more functional, not less
by spur212 on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:26 pm
anyway. enough navel gazing.
land of nod calls.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:26 pm
really?
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Confessions:
It’s understandable. I saw it as an opportunity for Shorten to clarify the ALP view and explain exactly what’s wrong with the Coalition view. In this she is just voicing a perception that’s out there. She didn’t stonewall him on it. He did ok, and he did end up with a direct challenge to Abbott to come to the table.
Another point that should be made re “we’ll turn the boats back where it’s safe to do so”: Surely that would be an encouragement to boat smugglers to ensure any boats that come this way are as unsafe as possible, or to scuttle them, in order to force our hand with them.
by Aguirre on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Aug
Not off the top of my head. I lived in Sydney for 20 odd years prior to moving back here last December. I must admit since moving back I’ve never even been south of the Swan River yet.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:29 pm
zoidlord @ 3219
Is that supposed to be a revelation?
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:30 pm
confessions
Mandatory detention can be ended by the Government or by a High Court of Australia decision.
Greens are not in government no matter how many tomes Abbott tells you they are.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Here is one from the Coalition regarding super tax profits:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/coalition-attack-ad-on-youtube-slams-kevin-rudd-tricks/story-e6frgczf-1225872641214
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:31 pm
Again one of those manufactured myths adopted, retrofitted by those needing to find justification for Gillard’s knifing Rudd.
A dysfunctional Rudd govt is simply myth, and people who fell for it did so willingly for other purposes.
Rudd as a first term PM was doing OK, and probably you should say he did very well indeed given his work with the GFC, that people too easily overlook.
But those who adopted the myth must now cling to it, they are too far down the track to admit they were willingly duped.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:31 pm
@bemused/3227
Is that a stupid question?
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:31 pm
DG,
cheers, one of the great adventures in life is to explore.
by Augustus on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Even if I accept the basic premise of the majority here that Ms Gillard should remain as Prime Minister until the next election, isn’t it a waste leaving someone of Mr Rudd’s talents on the backbench? Yeah, I know he’s universally disliked here, but at least Gillard could give her predecessor something more meaningful to do than sitting around tweeting on his IPad(which he seems to spend all of QT doing).
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:32 pm
bg
Yes. The Oalition and News Limited in trouble here comes the negative leader stories.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:33 pm
spur212:
What would a re-elected Rudd Labor govt do?
Given Rudd couldn’t see out one term as leader when his govt enjoyed high poll numbers. What would they be focused on?
The problem you and the Rudd Cult have is that you see everything framed in terms of Abbott and beating him in an election. In essence you are no different to the hordes of Labor supporters who at the time viewed everything Labor did in terms of Howard.
The challenge for Laborites such as yourself is to shake yourself free of the Howard era and embrace what today’s Labor party is doing. Forget Abbott, he will be toppled in December. Focus on what the party is doing, rather than the leader it has.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Coalition. The carbon tax swallowed the C
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Alberici should not state ‘Howard stooped the boats’ as a bald statement, rather “People say H. stopped the boats”.
A simple line the gov. could now run is “We are asking that the parliament allow the government to Take Action” “LNP is barring any action being taken”
Most other arguments take too much detail to argue.
Shorten was nicely reserved on the huge sordid paw prints of libs in the Ashby thing.
by d-money on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:34 pm
zoidlord @ 3229
Are we supposed to quake in terror at that or deal with it?
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:34 pm
@TLM/3233
I said it before, and I’ll say it again, Rudd needs to put his foot in Queensland!!!! and become Labor Leader for QLD Labor!
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Thomas Paine: Their whole justification for knifing Rudd was a crock – you know, I know, millions of Australians know it.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:34 pm
@bemused/3238
It worked didn’t?
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:34 pm
confessions,
It’s good to see that u deign PB with your presence on the “graveyard shift” where, according 2 numerous comments u have made during the morning shift (when u touch base with your cyber pals), wtte the time when all the bullies, ect hang out
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:35 pm
a myth started by steve lewis and spread by arbib etc
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Yes and it’s the only thing you have and it was 4 years ago now, and essentially implementing the advice of Treasury.
Rudd was PM when Treasury gave extraordinary advice which bailed us out of recession, therefore Rudd should be PM for evah!!!!
Do you even stop to think about what you are writing?
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Aguirre, I agree Shorten was poor on boats. Indeed, he was rather flat altogether and sounded like he had had the stuffing knocked out of him: which is how he has seemed every time I have seen him lately.
Alberici was running Abbott’s ridiculous line on Gillard’s “pride”: she won’t agree to the Libs’ policies because they worked and hers won’t. The obvious answer is that the Immigration Dept officials – the same ones who worked for the Howard Government – have advised that Abbott’s policies definitely won’t work and the Malaysian solution will.
Instead, Shorten more or less said “yeah, whatever, what real matters is that two sides with diametrically opposing views ought to meet in the middle and have a win/win”. Terrible answer IMO.
Bowen did it perfectly this morning on RN. More or less: “what Abbott is saying is crap, but we are so keen to solve this problem that we’re prepared to do some of what he wants if he’ll help us to implement what we think will work”.
I’m starting to think that my first impressions of Shorten were the correct ones: nice bloke, well-meaning in some ways, but a show pony more than a man of substance.
by meher baba on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:37 pm
@TLM/3240
There was no reason to knife Kim Beazley either.
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Tp and TLM
I quote to you from Tolkein.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:37 pm
zoidlord @ 3241
You mean to say that is what caused the coup?
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:37 pm
bemused
A definite upside.
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:38 pm