Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
confessions @ 3244
Pity Ken Henry gives Rudd a lot of credit and points to him being ahead of Treasury at the time. Doesn’t fit your alternate universe does it?
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:39 pm
So will Labor compromise with the Coalition by flicking the Malaysia solution?
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:40 pm
A rhetorical question
Enjoy chatting amongst yourselves
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Guytur
absolutely agree, we all need to move on and concentrate on beating the Fibs at the Ballot Box.
Starting with the pathelogical Liar that calls himself the opposotion “leader”
by Mick Collins on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Pegasus @ 3249
I knew you were one of the smarter Greens!
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Confessions: Rudd has officially nominated for preselection for Griffith at the next election.
Yet you assured me very firmly some months ago that Rudd would retire from politics at the 2013 election.
Where’s your retraction?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Shorten had some good policy wins in the disability portfolio. But has failed to convince since.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:42 pm
He will.
Rudd will either retire at the next election, or retire soon after the next election.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:43 pm
@TLM/3255
I don’t think he will retire, especially since he is still popular in QLD.
If anything, he should make his moves around and in QLD.
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Tolkein predicting the result of the next election?
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:43 pm
I’d add to the list of Labor MPs who’d deserve promotion under a Rudd Government Mark II – Nick Champion, Melissa Parke, Andrew Leigh, Amanda Risworth.
Ed Husic a definite for me too.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Goodnight all.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Nah wrong, as usual.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Only if Abbott is still Liberal leader.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Really?
Outline a scenario for me where Rudd remains in federal parliament well beyond the next election.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:48 pm
I’d argue that the government in terms of process would function better with Bill Shorten or Greg Combet as PM over Julia Gillard.
Effective by contrast is a relative term. Electorally effective? Policy effective? I’d argue Rudd was effective on both fronts. He got sidelined on the ETS due to senate maths vs economic certainty vs double disolution timing. That was an electoral issue, not a policy one.
by spur212 on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Meher Baba – yeah. It’s always a bit of a mystery divining what approach works best with the viewing public. At this stage I think sending a direct question back Abbott’s way is a good idea. And the one I’d concentrate on is the one about “turning back the boats when it’s safe to do so” just inviting unsafe boats and deliberate scuttling. It’s the what-happens-when-Nauru-is-full part of the Coalition policy that makes no sense.
Nauru’s not terrible. But it won’t work by itself, simple as that. Some vague “oh we’ll sort out what to do with the rest of them” brush-off is useless. A regional solution is the only one that makes sense, and it will continue to be the case for as long as Australia is an attractive destination.
That’s not a difficult idea to sell. Surely.
by Aguirre on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:50 pm
The closer you get the worse he is. The further away, the better he is.
Gillard is the opposite.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:51 pm
As a first term PM he couldn’t stay in the leadership for one term.
Hardly effective.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:51 pm
herald sun editorialises against abbott
TONY Abbott is not Prime Minister. Not yet. So when Ms Gillard, who is Prime Minister, indicates she is willing to talk about a compromise to restore offshore asylum seeker processing, the Opposition Leader needs to take her up on the offer.
Instead, Mr Abbott insists Ms Gillard is unwilling to back away from her Malaysian solution and so there is no point in meeting her.
At the same time, Mr Abbott insists the only way to resolve the stand-off is for Ms Gillard to agree to process asylum seekers on Nauru and to restore temporary protection visas.
This is exactly why they should meet to find a third way to discourage asylum seekers from attempting to reach Australia on people smugglers’ boats.
Ms Gillard might not have picked up the phone to issue a personal invitation to discuss what is of great concern to most Australians.
But her message is clear enough. Let compassion now prompt Mr Abbott, not politicking.
The consequences of refusing to talk to the Prime Minister are that he will be blamed for causing the deaths of asylum seekers still to come. That is the reality.
Swallow your pride, Mr Abbott. Pick up the phone and at least start talking.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/pick-up-the-phone/story-e6frfhqo-1226409521607
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:51 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/teachers-strike-prompts-earlier-release-of-ice-age-4-20120626-21014.html
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Seems to me slipper should have charged ashby with sexual harrassment
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/claims-of-plot-against-slipper-20120626-210th.html
by Schnappi on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Anyway, nite all, thanks for the weekly repeative discussion on Ruddington.
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:52 pm
confessions
Either as PM or as one of two surviving ALP MP’s in Queensland
by spur212 on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Bemused is correct about Rudd and the GFC response. Rudd took the decision to go on as hard as the government so people cant give the government credit without acknowledging Rudd’s courage to go as hard as they did. Some people like me criticize the size and structure of the response but that’s a different argument.
by davidwh on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:52 pm
For all those who do not live in Rudd’s elecrotate, you have know idea
good night all
by Augustus on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:53 pm
I think there is more to the economy than demographic changes, though they are an emerging factor in the trajectory of the property market. I think the changes in the economy have their origins in events in the 1980′s and 90′s as well. The dynamics of our economy started changing before the GFC, and these changes have been accentuated in the period since.
Essentially, from the mid-1980′s through to about 2006, Australian households added to their debts faster than their incomes grew. Notably, while household assets grew more quickly than incomes, assets also grew less quickly than household debts. By the end of this period, households had become used to incurring debt to finance consumption, had allowed their savings rates to fall to zero and had seen debt:incomes rise to the highest level ever recorded for this economy.
This very long expansion of consumption and borrowing had its beneficiaries. They included those engaged in just about anything to do with property and construction, including especially negatively-geared investors; the very many retailers and building trades-based enterprises aimed at serving demand for household goods and property-related services; those involved in supplying credit and other financial services to households and a myriad of micro-businesses that flourished during this phase of debt-fueled expansion.
Well, this all had to end sometime. It is just not mathematically possible for savings rates to decline indefinitely, for debt:incomes ratios to keep growing and for the property market to keep rising faster than incomes on a permanent basis. So the growth rate of household consumption has slowed, as has the creation of credit, while savings rates have returned to their historical levels.
The households that had come to rely on and expect to benefit from the prolonged cycle of consumption/property/debt driven prosperity are finding that life has changed. Things are much more difficult now than they were 10 years ago for many of these households. Many have high debts. Their assets have stagnated or probably declined in value. There is less demand for their products and services and they have fewer opportunities to expand their incomes or their wealth.
At the same time as the dynamics of the private economy have changed, the financial capacity of the public sector has also changed. While the public sector was able to return surplus revenue to households in the years up to 2006/7 (middle-class welfare) and to add demand into the economy in the years 2009-11, this is also now changing. The public sector is now increasing its savings rate at the same time as the private sector is attempting to increase its savings.
As a result of these changes, even though the gross statistics depict an economy that is growing and a labour market that is still strong, many households are having to adapt to post-boom financial restraints. This is “austerity” down-under.
The political implications of these economic developments are quite plain to see. Taken in the aggregate, households feel a lot less well-off and are blaming the Government.
Really, this should be a good news story. The economy is adapting to a new environment without a rise in unemployment or a crash in our fiscal dynamics. The Government should get a lot of credit for this. They are guiding the economy away from the growth-through-debt model of the Howard years – away from a model that was clearly unsustainable.
The Government should be making a lot more of this – explaining what is happening, why it is unavoidable, how it is being managed and arguing that this is the path to a more secure prosperity.
by briefly on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Btw: it’s not Goverment that can’t be trusted, it’s Telstra, lol:
http://www.news.com.au/technology/internet-filter/data-detour-spying-no-were-tracking-for-a-web-filter-says-telstra/story-fn5j66db-1226409527757
by zoidlord on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:54 pm
So 71 to 31 is a myth?
Bullshit.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:57 pm
For someone who supposedly is a huge crowd puller, they certainly limit Julia’s public appearances to not very much.
But as we know, she’s more about process than popularity – John McTiernen’s line.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:58 pm
The Sun Herald….stated like a poll-bludger. Perhaps they have been cherry-picking the debates here!
by briefly on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:59 pm
TLM
If you want a crowd puller as PM I suggest you recruit Kylie Minogue.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:00 am
A lot of the 71 who voted for Gillard last time had their preselections threatened by the factional bosses if they didn’t tow the accepted line.
People voted for Julia out of fear.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:00 am
davidwh
It’s pretty hard to criticise Rudd for the GFC response when someone like Ken Henry lauds him with praise on it. He even went one step further and said that in conversations Rudd was ahead of him in terms of predicting what would happen
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:00 am
And she’s being propped up by the aforementioned Bill Shorten – if he took the Victorian Right elsewhere, we’d have a new Labor leader.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:01 am
briefly
The problem with economic/demographic transition is it causes massive uncertainty in the electorate. This is why it’s so important for the government to take the electorate with them in terms of policy changes.
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:05 am
TLM Shorten is acting like someone who believes he made an error and who is resigned to living with the error. He has lost a lot of his spark in recent months.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:05 am
Augustus,
Exactly. What would they no?
by Jake on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:05 am
@TLM/3282
Rudd only one when he challenged Beazely via 10 votes (49 votes to 39), which is only marginally better when Abbott challenged Turnbull.
Infact the same Leadership speculation Rudd vs Gillard is happening with Turnbull vs Abbott.
by zoidlord on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:06 am
I find Shorten very wooden in his interviews.
I just don’t see him as Labor leadership material – his end game is obviously to be Opposition Leader if Gillard loses the next election. In other words, supporting Julia suits his agenda far more than putting his lot in with Rudd.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:10 am
Rossmore 3220
________
So it’s guotes time is it ??
This more is not from the Bronte’s but is a great truth
_________
“All history is the history of the class struggle ”
Karl Marx
______
Words for politicos to always remember
It explains almost everything
by deblonay on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:12 am
Enjoy your myths/memes they are all you have left.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:12 am
Man (brough) Overboard!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/peter-slipper-plot-linked-to-top-of-liberal-national-party/story-e6frgczx-1226409627174
by bluegreen on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:12 am
I agree. There is high anxiety in the community. People need to know that the Government not only understand what is happening but have the capacity to respond to and maintain control over events. It is not easy to do this when the Opposition have chosen fear as their political weapon of choice (I mean, they could use hope!)
The Government need to develop a clear economic narrative….the really need to show they understand what is happening and how they are going to handle things. In this they have an advantage over the Liberals, who seem to have almost no grasp of economic events or policy at all.
by briefly on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:13 am
Factional mafia bosses selected who would win and it was the person who best protected their power. And this is why gillard was inserted in the first place and why they remain scared of Rudd.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:13 am
TLM 3289
_______
Absolutely right
Shorten is in the “Crean Class “when it comes to wooden boring interviews
by deblonay on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:13 am
And with @TP @TLM reading from “how to type scripts on the internet”.
I’m really going to bed!
by zoidlord on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:17 am
Well, I think we Ruddites and we Gillardites can agree on one thing: Mal Brough won’t be the LNP endorsed candidate for the seat of Fisher at the next federal election.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:17 am
Oz says McIver and Clive involved in slipper case.
peter-slipper-plot-linked-to-top-of-liberal-national-party
maybe it cannot be pasted ,but will post
by Schnappi on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:18 am
Maybe this one
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/peter-slipper-plot-linked-to-top-of-liberal-national-party/story-e6frgczx-1226409627174
by Schnappi on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:19 am