Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
….or that Albo knows he is on very sound ground…
by zoomster on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:30 pm
guytaur@3588
Fixed.
by Musrum on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Apropos the now former CEO of channel Seven. AFR quotes James Packer on front page:
ouch
by Laocoon on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Lao
That seat will either go to Labor who or the Greens. Whichever the gay community the largest swinging voter block thinks fulfils interests the best.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:30 pm
by lizzie on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:31 pm
[Oppns' Scott Morrison says the boat that capsized last week would not have capsized if they could have turned it back to Indonesdia.
Not only sick, but complete nonsense. It capsized a long time before we could have done anything - and, remember, the Navy quite clearly objects to being told to do this.
And, again, Indonesia has not signed the convention, so he's contradicting himself. Again.
Why do journalists allow him to get away with such horse shit?
by Son of foro on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:33 pm
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:33 pm
The worm continues to turn.
But ever so slowly.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Marrickville Mauler@3618
That is just asking for a parody, with Abbott visiting a marijuana growing operation and blabbing on about the increased costs.
by ShiftyPhil on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:34 pm
SoF
And Indonesia has told OZ on at least three occasions, that they will not tolerate the return of boats
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Bushfire Bill @3596
Crikey Slipper has a diverse bunch of contacts.
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:35 pm
This treaty could be used to reverse the recent Court Case against iinet. Should be interesting.
@AboutTheHouse: Press conference on committee recommendation to defer anti-counterfeiting ACTA treaty in Senate courtyard from 1pm today
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Ummm, wasn’t it in Indonesian waters when it went down?
by ratsak on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:35 pm
My post by AboutTheHouse at 3659 just got a correction the time is from 1:30pm today
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Anyone know how quickly the current AS legislation can be brought on for a vote? Does it need a certain time to be debated again? Put the pressure on and have their No’s recorded forever. Do it this arvo.
by Narns on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Murphy has confirmed this one is in Indonesian waters. Bit hard to turn around a boat that has capsized before it even reaches our territorial waters.
FFS Labor belt these filthy scum. Belt them day and night. Belt them without mercy because they deserve none.
by ratsak on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:38 pm
I suspect Abbott is going to come under pressure from within the Liberal Party on this.
I suspect he’ll come to the table and then take credit for governing from opposition
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m Oppns’ Scott Morrison says the boat that capsized last week would not have capsized if they could have turned it back to Indonesdia.
View details ·
Was it not in i do esian waters.
How could the any way.
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:39 pm
@Joe_Hildebrand: I wonder how many more times the SMH is going to run a front page story explaining why it missed the Peter Slipper yarn.
@Kate_McClymont: @Joe_Hildebrand Seems as though your redoubtable organ The Terror had the Slipper story all sewn up, Joe”
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:40 pm
ratsak yes it was in Indonesian waters and Indonesia was warned of the boat’s presence 2 days before the tragedy which begs the question “why are us Australians blaming each other over the tragedy?”.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:40 pm
@Tzarimas: This is the boat that has capsized. http://t.co/iu1s4jsc @ ABCNews24 #asylumseeker
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:41 pm
guytaur
I am not so sure about that.
True the last general election was extraordinary in so many ways, but ALP came fourth!!
I would have thought the Greens might have been in with a chance had they selected a half decent candidate. Liberals only just lost out against Clover. Don’t think either Greens or ALP have a mortgage on the gay vote (fwiw, which I don’t think is particularly decisive, both Liberal pre-selection candidates are gay)
by Laocoon on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Shifty #3658, yes if only the Chaser was still running.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:43 pm
lao
Gay people look at policies not candidates. So do their independent non Murdoch or Rinehart papers.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Libs; please stop the boats, please give Labor the votes.
Enough is enough.
by rummel on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:43 pm
davidwh
“why are Australians blaming each other over the tragedy?”.
Because logic and truth has flown out the window, courtesy of Abbott, Morrison, Brandis.
by lizzie on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:45 pm
‘have flown
. Popped in trruth as an afterthought.
by lizzie on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:46 pm
I agree with Mr Cameron
@latikambourke: Labor MP Doug Cameron says any cross-Parliament agreement should operate under the auspices of the UNHCR. #asylum
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Hear hear.
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Tony abbotts picture has arrived
Sorry ru l, i am sticking to my decision
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:48 pm
my say
It is a picture of Rudd not Abbott
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:49 pm
lizzie I agree that’s a large part of it but it’s not the full story.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:49 pm
TLM, enough is enough. Stop being a troll. The next time you leave a comment here which cannot possibly be your genuine opinion, and which is very obviously left here with the sole intention of aggravating Gillard supporters, you will be permanently banned.
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:50 pm
It appears that Latika is tweeting the presser earlier. Today re asylum seeker meeting with 41 mps
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:50 pm
3668
davidwh Posted Wednesday, June 27, 2012 at 12:40 pm | Permalink
ratsak yes it was in Indonesian waters and Indonesia was warned of the boat’s presence 2 days before the tragedy which begs the question “why are us Australians blaming each other over the tragedy?”.
DAVID you are liberal tell them u wa t vote for them
I conta cted nick mckim as he is a green a d to,ld him so
I live in his electorate
Stop supporti g abbott and liberals stand up and be counted
Its not hard
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:52 pm
The msm always say a boat has gone down ‘near’ Christmas island or ‘north of’ Christmas Island. They don’t mention that these sinkings happened in Indonesian waters, or if they do it’s buried in the fine print.
Sky News it at it again now, with a map showing Christmas Island thrown in to make sure we all believe these tragedies are happening just off our west coast. No mention, of course, about Indonesian waters.
A while ago Sky’s resident bimbette Gillon was telling us all that so far the PM had not been able to come up with a compromise the opposition could agree to despite trying since Christmas last year to do so. No mention of the opposition’s refusal to consider anything but a return to Howard’s now ten year old policy, of course.
by leone on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Mysay”…….. Once again it’s keven bloody Rudd.
Oh well, ta ta…………
by rummel on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:52 pm
I think a compromise will occur soonish. While this was a problem only for Labor there was no political reason for Abbott to compromise. Now that both parties are beginning to be seen as culpable it is in Abbott’s interest to close it down. Who would have thought, 6 months ago, that the change of perception was likely to occur? A week is a long time in politics and 15 months is an eternity.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:53 pm
it’s inspiring to see there are 41 parliamentarians from across the parties willing to have a decent go at working towards a solution – double that and we’re in with a hope
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:54 pm
For the sake of honesty the ALP needs to rename our Border Protection Policy as our Search and Rescue Policy.
by Compact Crank on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:54 pm
A by-election in Clover Moore’s state seat of Sydney would see a “Clover Moore Independent” candidate win. This party byline appears on the Council ballot paper. I am not sure if it will be on the state by-election ballot (is it a registered party name?)
The upshot is whomever Clover endorses will win; the Libs will get fewer votes than the state election because of this by-election only occuring as an attack on Clover.
by docantk on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Boat carried only women and children ccording to Age.
Could they be wives of those drowned in previous boat
by lizzie on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:54 pm
my say your 3864 is based on an incorrect assumption.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Really i need new glasses.
Sorry rummel
Humblist apology
Gosh now i have my magnifiying class
Out what was tbe old bowling joke
Cant hear cannt see, not a wise monkey , then not
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:55 pm
leone
The media do their best to paint it in a very negative light, but the point is these boats are on their way to Xmas Island which is very close to Indonesia. These people are seeking refugee in Australia, so at some point they become our responsibility. The turning boats back mantra from Abbott and Morrison is utterly disgusting
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:57 pm
by lizzie on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Unfortunately, that is probably correct.
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:57 pm
I think its time the ALP publicly (and loudly) reaffirmed the reasons why they stopped the Pacific Solution in the first place… the misery it caused seems largely to be forgotten… as does the public outrage. The Coalition should be questioned on how they view their refugee obligations beyond simply ‘stopping the boats’, dog whistling, shifting blame to our regional partners and all future diplomatic & trade consequences this creates.
Politically: The ALP should overtly muscle up with an ‘enough is enough’ resolve… use Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s diplomats and their affront to strengthen its stance toward regional responsibility and solution… immediately withdraw offers to talk further with the Coalition calling them out for what they are… hold parliament over to submit their Bill stating an increased swap ratio of 10:1 not 4:1 and let the Greens and Independents take ownership of a refusal and further drownings if it ensues.
by Gecko on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:57 pm
my say
Unless you stretch the image it is hard to tell who it is!!
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:58 pm
TLBD:
If they do, it will indicate how they think the issue is playing out in the electorate. The fact of the matter is that all AS roads lead back to Coaltion responsibility for the impasse. I don’t know if they’ve managed to cloud the issue enough to be able to start asking questions in QT. I doubt it. I reckon they’ll get belted around the head if they try that on.
The fact that they’re even talking about asylum seekers indicates how bereft they are of topics that won’t explode in their faces. Carbon pricing is just about the only one they’ll touch on QT.
by Aguirre on Jun 27, 2012 at 12:58 pm