Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Why would mr oakshotts bill be on e short
What i nndependant is not voting for it
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:00 pm
@ABCNews24: Live Now: Prime Minister @JuliaGillard making a statement on #asylum seeker boat capsizing http://t.co/AhggUgUN #auspol
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Rummy, +1
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:02 pm
nine line from Julia – “no one won, no one lost” as it is an independents bill
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:06 pm
by gloryconsequence on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:06 pm
nice even
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:06 pm
This.
Tom, the Libs are talking about the only issue of importance, Labor is talking about piffle. Waiting until 2pm was a bad move. It’s this sort of reluctance to go on 100% attack when an opening shows itself that is cruelling Labor. It’s the sort of timidity that has the PM agreeing that the Carbon Price ‘acts like a tax’ and all of the other legs ups they have given Abbott.
Abbott has no shame, and no compunction to lie, twist, misrepresent and tear down any standards of decency. Playing nice with those sorts of scum just gets you burned. Abbott is eminently breakable. His crap just won’t stand up to sustained scrutiny. But the government must be constantly on the front foot to ensure the focus stays on him. They just have to stop giving him room to wriggle.
by ratsak on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Julia is pushing Abbott right back into the corner he painted for himself.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:08 pm
now guaranteeing the Greens won support it in even house – pressure will be on Abbott
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Are you listening to parliament? This is as good as it gets.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Well said, PM!
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Gillard is just handing Abbott a win here. Talking about enacting his policy. Weak.
by ratsak on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:09 pm
PM Gillard is speaking like a true “Statesman” whereas Abbott was looking like a desperate politician
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:09 pm
sorry All – sloppy typing
now guaranteeing the Greens won’t support it in even house – pressure will be on Abbott
how many votes short is Labor in the Senate if Xenophon is in side???
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:10 pm
The issue with the Malaysian deal to me was getting Abbott and Coalition MP’s names on a piece of paper saying they opposed offshore processing with the Greens.
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Julia is twisting the knife into Abbott so exquisitely.
The smiling assassin.
by Henry on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:10 pm
@ratsak/3911
AS the PM said, No one wins.
by zoidlord on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:11 pm
I may have to join Rummel and agree that sending 800 people back to Malaysia is a reasonable ethical compromise but only if it does stop or severly limit boat arrivals. Well not so much the arrivals because I have never been worried about those who manage to get here but as long as it stops people perishing at sea.
If it doesn’t work and all we have achieved is to send 800 genuine refugees to Malaysia and the deaths continue then it’s a fail, fail. But it may be all we have.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Now for squirm time.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:11 pm
If the Greens block the legislation in the senate, Gillard needs to get the sword out and start swinging
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Come on Abbott. Get to the point!
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:12 pm
I’m guessing leave will not be granted.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Latika Bourke @latikambourke
BREAKING – PM Julia Gillard says Labor will reopen Nauru and proceed with Malaysia swap if Oakeshott bill is passed.
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Couldn’t agree more.
by Gecko on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Centre whats your thought so far
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Is Abbott about to cave on Malaysia? Sounds like it….
He’s been told.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:14 pm
s212
If the Libs support a bill in the House why do you think they would vote against it in the Senate?
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:14 pm
The grub used the derogatory term “boat people”
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:14 pm
No, Tone is a bigger prick than Rupe.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Yep, he’s caving. Getting the last dummy spit in before he says we’ll go with Malaysia however reluctantly.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Nope.
by ratsak on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:15 pm
morrison washer and bishop chatting
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Abbott is about to crumble and vote with Oakys bill so that no one in his party crosses the floor. They will pass on voices so no record in hansard.
by Gaffhook on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Abbott slowly turning from sympatheric creepiness to aggression.
by lizzie on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Yes then the press mates wilksay how wonderful he is
Whates the bet
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Nauru is not any part of Regional Solution whereas Malaysia Solution is and has potential to be a truly one
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Gaffhook,
Here’s hoping!
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:16 pm
On Abbott’s crap on “with protection…”, Nauru was not a signatory to the UN convention during Howard years, was it??
by Laocoon on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:16 pm
abbott dieing hard, but dieing nonetheless.
Just can’t stop politicking even as the vice on his balls continues to tighten…
by Henry on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm
They might cave in the Senate, but they aren’t going to give Malaysia a go unless the pain on them gets too intense.
by ratsak on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Holy hell – how long is Abbott going to be allowed his ‘indulgence’?
by janice2 on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Maybe.
But I’ii believe it when it happens.
I don’t think he is capable of agreeing to it.
Will happy to be wrong though.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm
As much as i want it i prefer tbe vote
Abbott will get praise
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm
janice,
Lots of rope. Big noose.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Ya reckon, BB? I’m hearing same-old, same-old. He’s really struggling hard not to play politics on this.
by Aguirre on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Abbott: me, me, me, me, me, me….. DUMMY SPIT!
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Tone is calling for time out!
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Abbott wants time to consult with Credlin
by Laocoon on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Now he calls for time out!
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Perhaps he rightly sees the threat of Moylen & Co crossing the floor as the beginning of the end?
by Gecko on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:19 pm