Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I can’t guess what will happen if this passes. If it would pass the Senate it would go straight there, but the govt doesn’t want a defeat, so I guess they’ll put it to the Greens in private. They’ll say no and they’ll all go to the winter break with no change.
by triton on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:39 pm
I’ve had the mute on for most of Abbott and Morrison speeches – only so much of the same old that I can bear the repetition of- now Bronny chiming in with more.
The News24 quotes underneath summarising are fun. Morrison apparently concerned with human rights! LOL!
It did give me the chance to observe a few opps behind the speakers. Often during those rants there’s the odd cheerleader with a few laughs and smiles. None today, which may reflect the latest disaster. It could also be that the opposition morally doesn’t have a leg to stand on and finally realizes it.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Or supplied by the Shooters Party.
by leone on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm
what an evil witch is the Member for Mackellar. Her time has indeed expired. But let her speak again and again in hopes it might provoke decent Libs , and there are some, to have the courage to be decent.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm
@latikambourke: Would not want to be a Coalition MP getting chucked out at this critical point…. #asylum
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Perhaps by introducing Mr O’s AS Bill into the house the PM is trying to show that Parliament can work together for a positive result and this may result in Parliament as a whole regaining some respect in the eyes of the public.
Who knows ?
by Doyley on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Bowen doing a Churchill.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Bowen speaking very passionately.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm
The Opposition raising human rights in the context of this debate is the equivalent of a sexual abuser telling the court the victim wore provocative clothing.
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:41 pm
DWH
I find the blood on Mr Abbott’s hands disgusting.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:41 pm
David abbott could of voted back nearly 18 months ago for this.
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Lots of talking going on behind the scenes by the sound of it
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:41 pm
If you are raising issues of human rights for purely petty and machiavellian reasons then you are a grub. I make no apologies whatsoever. The reports of senior liberals saying Abbott wants the ALP to keep bleeding show the real depth of their concern for human rights. Grubs is a very mild rebuke for the low germs they are.
by ratsak on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:42 pm
@BernardKeane: Wilkie in conference with Pyne and Crook
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Bowen doing a great job.
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Bowen spoke very well
by Laocoon on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Pyne’s trying to get Coalition MP’s to filibuster
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Great speech by Bowen.
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:43 pm
This little black duck
Fighting them on the beaches ?
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:43 pm
spur
I thought only in America could you filibuster.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:44 pm
The Minister’s line on return to Indonesiia (non signatory to Refugee Convention) on leaky boat ok by Coalition but return by plane to Malaysia (also non signatory) not ok, surely unanswerable.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:44 pm
s Dunny Posted Wednesday, June 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink
I’ve had the mute on for most of Abbott and Morrison speeches – only so much of the same old that I can bear the repetition of- now Bronny chiming in with more.
The News24 quotes underneath summarising are fun. Morrison apparently concerned with
I left the room gd
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Keenan is getting awfully emotional about his work on the committee on the Christmas Island tragedy.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Bowen quoting Howard – nice move
This guy very emotional whoever he is
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:44 pm
sitting here in my shitty office I am absolutely glued to PB! i cant hit refresh quick enough!!
by middle man on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm
I would think if the Bill passes the House today the government will put it to the Senate irrespective of the probable outcome.
If not why bother ?
Getting the House to pass the Bill is the main game on this from all angles. It is then completely up to Abbott.
by Doyley on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Is he cying
This lib on now
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm
womble
It is Michael Keenan may be one to cross the floor.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm
How DARE you challenge the Opposition’s consistency on this issue!
They have been PERFECTLY consistent all along!
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Surely Keenan will cross the floor.
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Poroti # 4068 – more like , speaking for Australia (ok that wasnt Churchill with that interjection)
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Keenan’s contribution will be remembered more than Bowen’s
by shellbell on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Keenan is basically giving support to the bill with this touching and emotional contribution.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Son of Foro 4041 they would eat me alive in Canberra. Much too scary to contemplate.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Please telll me why is he crying
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:46 pm
A great speech by Keenan. Surely, they must vote for this.
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Well there is an answer for Keenan vote yes for the Oakshott Bill.
by Muskiemp on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:46 pm
guytaur, yes surely or what is his point, his sincerity is clear but what will he do with it
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Keenan obviously cares. But what he is talking about highlights the urgent need for a solution to be found. I can’t imagine for a second why he might be in favour of the Coalition “turn the boats around” policy.
by Aguirre on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:47 pm
poroti,
Close: fighting the bitches.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Crocodile tears by Keenan.
by Muskiemp on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Keenan surely cannot sleep at night.
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:47 pm
oh crap
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:47 pm
my say
He obviously was deeply affected by his experience at Christmas Island.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:47 pm
fascinating contribution from Keenan
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:48 pm
150 minus morrison and the LOTO mate
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Danny said:
I didn’t use a definite article or an initial pronoun either.
i.e I’m heading off to the teachers rally …
It was an elliptical note in a setting in which sentence fragments are acceptable.
In this case {teachers rally} it is optional because “teachers” can have adjectival (rather than possessive) force. “Teachers” describes the rally (rather than being possessive. It’s in this case a rally (composed of) teachers. Thus idiomatically: “teachers rally”.
Nouns are often used adjectivally. An ice cream shop is not usually composed of ice cream but is rather a category of shop where ice cream is sold. A brick house is however, normally composed of bricks. Would you insist on an apostrophe in the following sentence for example?
I have a doctors appointment this afternoon.
That sentence (idiomatically) specifies the nature of the appointment rather than who possesses it. If it is possessed by anyone in that sentence, it’s the person declaring they have it, but that would be silly, particularly as it’s likely to be with only one doctor.
Hope that helps.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:48 pm
So is keenan crossi g tbe floor
Good god shell bell a minister doesnt
Cry, in theses cases
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:48 pm
come on Malcolm now or never
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Keenan probably cares .. and is probably struggling with a massive conflict within.
by middle man on Jun 27, 2012 at 2:48 pm