Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
hmm, 5 for 1 swap. Dog Whistle!! We’ve been dudded! Saving TOO MANY people. Bastard.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Albo taking note in readiness, I hope, for a crunching finale.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Gillard should use the Greens blocking the legislation as justitification to end the formal alliance with the Greens during this parliament
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:25 pm
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:28 pm
I don’t understand why so many Coalition MPs get to talk. This has been going on for over an hour.
by Mithrandir on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:28 pm
My god! Now Morrison gets a rerun! Is this the Day of the Grubs ?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Jeebus, Mary, Mother of Dog, why do we have to hear from Abbott & Morrison TWICE!?!
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Back to playing both sides of the fence again. Long hand-wringing episodes over human rights, followed by “those bastards should never have left Indonesia in the first place”. No human rights for them, then.
by Aguirre on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:29 pm
So this is interesting: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/smartphone/article.aspx?id=8490382
by rishane on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:29 pm
The Liberals’ position on all of this is completely incomprehensible to any intelligent and interested listener.
They are talking about human rights and all the countries of the region getting together and working out a humanitarian solution and are sounding just like the Greens.
But they what they really want to do is to turn boats around, send them to rot in Nauru, etc.
Now Morrison is up on his feet again and he is making even less sense than before: it’s almost random word generation.
Most Australians are intelligent (or at least reasonably intelligent), but the overwhelming majority aren’t very interested and they won’t appreciate what a load of codswallop this all is.
And I’m not expecting the media to do much to help them. It will be presented as a mexican standoff with neither side being prepared to budge.
by meher baba on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Thank goodness for the Mute Button.
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Fair point from Abbott re not sending women and children to Malaysia – or at least children – will they still be put on boats under the Labor policy???
Malaysia, as proposed, is not the answer
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Oh bloody hell, Hunt now!
by Aguirre on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Morrison doesnt have a conscience to wrestle with.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:31 pm
The Opposition is attempting to blackmail the government into their way by using the Greens’ intransigent position against sides.
Truly disgusting.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Morrison’s reasoning for making Indonesia an exception don’t stand up. If Indonesia is not a convention signatory then, by the coalition’s definition, it is not a safe place for asylum seekers. Therefore, once we come across a boat from Indonesia we have a duty to rescue them.
by triton on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:31 pm
He probably uses an electron microscope.
by leone on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:33 pm
c@tmomma – good to see you can post even if in grabs. Make sure you get it checked out properly tho. Stay safe and on your feet
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Now The Jockey! Fortunately while I’m still on Mute. If his supposed speciality of climate change is any guide, he’ll be of zero value to the debate.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:33 pm
The government whip has told Labor MPs not to talk on Morrison’s amendments in order to save time.
The Coalition in turn is having as many MPs speak to the amendments as possible to buy time in order to convince its back bench not to support the bill.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Now Ed Husic to raise the tone.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Sadly most voters are completely irrational on this issue.
They just want the boats gone and couldn’t care less how it is achieved.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:36 pm
There’s hypocrisy, there’s rank hypocrisy and then there’s the Coalition under Abbott.
If they win this one, surely the karma, vengeance of God or whatever you believe in will be awesome.
by ajm on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:38 pm
agreed Dave #4272, “heartless vacuous moron who I hope is jobless very soon” is more like it
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:39 pm
You have to GET ON A BOAT to get to NAURU!. it’s bloody miles away!.
by 1934pc on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:39 pm
I think it will pass the House (without the Opposition amendments) by 1 vote, but then the Coalition and the Greens will kill it int he Senate.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:39 pm
BH,
Thank you.
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:40 pm
i was out, relying on quick glances at PB (who else??) for updates. Where is the reps up to now? Has anything bombshell-ish happen so far? Will this leg’n pass?
I just put APH reps on.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:41 pm
point from Abbott re not sending women and children to Malaysia – or at least children – will they still be put on boats under the Labor policy???
Tell u there is no way i would want to be seperated,
From my loving husband and he from us.
Abbott
Does not give a dam he thinks it sou d nice
Thats all
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Husic excellent and calls out the Greens.
Oh no! It’s the Puff Adder!!
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:41 pm
BK – And now Mirabella to lower it.
by Burgey on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:41 pm
sent to- NAURU
by 1934pc on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Bk
I am really sorry
My oh called yes the lady herself his mate
Lol
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:42 pm
womble – what would you like the Greens to do?
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Is the Puff Adder wearing those novetly Groucho Marx glasses?
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:42 pm
The headmistress is talki g to her studens
Dont u dare cross the floor
I want to be loto
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:43 pm
No one is listening to Mirabella
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:43 pm
They go to the M. for Indie for compassion???? I am going to the butcher for a vegetarian burger.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Progressive members of the ALP unfortunately outnumbered by those on the right
But for her to use them to support her argument is a massive stretch
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Didn’t Gillard say originally that she would not send anyone to a country that was not part of the UN Convention?
by McFly Marty on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Puff i dont think so
But the head lines will excuse abbott
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:44 pm
God, she’s awful!
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:45 pm
I hope we have QT after this.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Just when I thought it couldn’t be worse, they bring on Sophie!
I suspect Pyne is trying to torture us into submission.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Mesma’s finally got back to her spot after harassing the potential floor crossers.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Bilson
Glens pm
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:46 pm
I’d be very sure Malaysia would sign the UNHCR first!.
by 1934pc on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Mirabella naturally gets in a shot about deaths being a sign of the incompetence of “this hopeless govt”.
by lizzie on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Was Nauru a signatory to the UN Convention when it was opened?
by Lynchpin on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Seems more liberals than labor are speaking
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:48 pm