Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Apostrophical!
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Dee,
I’m watching on my laptop. I just mute and move to a new tab whenever an Opposition MP gets up to speak.
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:36 pm
BH,
My youngest son wants to join the Navy.
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:37 pm
They’ve been on this since 14:21.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:37 pm
@ThangNgo: SBS’s nifty Census Explorer says there are 43 ppl in Aust who speak Vietnamese but were born in Iraq. #census2012 http://t.co/aWV8j8e5
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Now Frydenberg is being slimy. It must be bred into the new generation of Lib pollies.
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Boerwar
I would say they have appointed a Chief Whip & Taser.
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:38 pm
@JulianBurnside: A modest proposal to deter asylum seekers. Great piece by Jonathan Green. http://t.co/Sz39Hz6F We should be ashamed of ourselves
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:39 pm
26 have spoken on the amendments, so far. Could be a long evening.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Josh must think Iran is a good place to send refugees.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:41 pm
How many times has “border protection” been mentioned in this debate?
by ShiftyPhil on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:41 pm
c@tmomma – An admirable career for your son and I hope he achieves all he wants. A neighbour has 2 sons in the Navy and both retired at 45 as Ltn Commanders, one in charge of a patrol boat at the time of Tampa.
Speers just saying that talk now is the Moylan and Washer will stay with Libs and Oakeshott may vote for Morrison amendment.
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:44 pm
shifty
I do not know, but there has been 30 speakers so far
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:44 pm
A bit of perspective from Julie Owens.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:44 pm
The Midwinter Ball is on tonight.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:45 pm
My car is kaput. I’m sitting in a shopping centre car park, waiting for hubby to drive an hour to come to my rescue.
Aren’t IPads magic?
by zoomster on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:45 pm
@jonkudelka: Has nobody told these asylum seekers about the carbon tax? That ought to stop em.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:46 pm
They may have to rename it The Midnight Ball.
Speaking of which, who’ll pick up the Slipper?
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Fran: pray tell, what is the difference between teachers’ rallies and teachers’ students?
Would you really omit the apostrophe if you were referring to a teacher’s students?
by Danny Lewis on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:49 pm
In this report by the abc on the capsizing of the boatload of women and kids today, Abbott is the only MP speaking on the Bill who is quoted verbatim. What chance does anyone have in such a media atmosphere. How are we ever going to get a workable legislation supported? How many more of these sinkings will there have to be before everyone gets off their political horse and supports the Bill? At least they could try to see if it will work.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-27/asylum-seeker-boat-in-distress-off-christmas-island/4095566
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Ducky no problems as I am sure the three ugly sisters will be there.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Smurf the apostrophes. Here, have as many as you like. ””””””””””””””””””””””””
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Zoomster – hope you’ve got the car heater on. It’s freezing here and I’m closer to the tropics than you are.
Will they call a halt to the debate to get ready for the Ball tonight? Journos might be getting a bit worried.
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Yahoo News thinks that Moylan and Washer are likely to cross the floor:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/14056347/asylum-disaster-sparks-fierce-debate/
So the extended debate on these amendments is the coalition buying time to convince them not to cross the floor.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:53 pm
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:54 pm
WOW what a day, it always happens when you get snowed under
Shades of when the Grech story broke
by Centre on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:54 pm
How is Katter and that nutcase loon Bandt going to vote?
by Centre on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:56 pm
But Speers on Sky said that they changed their minds about 20 mins ago.
Did you see my post where Speers also said that Oakeshott is considering voting for Morrison’s amendments.
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Zoomster do u have a sim card or o e of those toggles
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Car heaters are for wusses.
I have a nice warm blanket….
by zoomster on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:56 pm
BH@4411,
My youngest son isn’t that smart.
He wants to get paid for getting a trade and see the world.
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:57 pm
What are morrissons amendments
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Katter has previously said he will support the bill, Bandt reiterated today that he and the Greens will vote against it.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:57 pm
….mind you, I’d like a handbrake, and maybe doors that locked…
(thinks….time to upgrade??)
by zoomster on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:58 pm
His amendments are simply wrecking amendments designed to make the Government’s preferred option, the Malaysia Deal, unlawful.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Now we have this!
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Where morrisson amendments just nauru
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Shows: yup. I’d say Abbott and his henchmen – and henchwomen – will either pressure them to support the Opposition or to at least abstain.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Who is this twit speaking now? It is HIS bloody leader who won’t give an inch and here he is appealing to the PM to give in totally to Abbott/Morrison.
by janice2 on Jun 27, 2012 at 4:59 pm
@HilaryStyles: A friend just spied Sarah Hanson Young accepting a deal with the Coalition on Nauru in Lib lounge, check it out @latikambourke #auspol
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Member for Hasluck is dishing an extraordinary guilt trip at Gillard.
He is asking HER to compromise, when he is a completely moron that doesn’t realise that it IS THE LEADER OF HIS OWN PARTY THAT WON’T COMPROMISE!
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Well i hope oakshott does not vote for tbat, amendment if so he should not have bothered
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:02 pm
my say the opposition ammendments mainly require any offshore processing country to be a signatory to the UN charter which Malaysia isn’t.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:02 pm
FFS
by Gecko on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:02 pm
janice2
If you check the Coalition’s dictionary..
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Ken Wyatt a certified idiot if there ever was one.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Here’s an ABC report which refers to a “drivers licence”. And here’s another one which refers to a “drivers’ licence”. It would seem to me an arguable point whether “drivers” should be regarded as possessive, and hence requiring an apostrophe, or adjective, and hence not requiring one. Each is true in its way. Same goes for a teachers’ rally. My instincts tell tell me to use “drivers licence” and “teachers’ rally”, but I wouldn’t go telling people what’s what on the subject.
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:04 pm
I don’t understand what the Opposition’s objections to Malaysia are (apart from politics, that is).
They have said a lot about human rights (which is hilarious, as this is something that doesn’t seem to trouble them when they are in government), but they haven’t exactly explained WHAT it is about Malaysia that is so awful.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:04 pm
I prefer the Malays’ian s’olution.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Bilbo: I’ve made my last comment on the subject.
I’m sure it’s very boring for everyone else
by Danny Lewis on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:05 pm