Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
harry doing well = kicking goals
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Great to have Harry Jenkins able to say what he thinks.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:40 pm
George Christensen showing again that he is all (cl)ass!
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:40 pm
@Tzarimas: Fairfax Media has told billionaire Gina Rinehart it’s “unable to extend an invitation” for her to join its board. #fairfax
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:40 pm
I like partisan Harry
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Yep. He is doing really well here.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm
How on earth can you in good conscience condemn ‘malaysia’ if you then support towing the boats back to indonesia ?
talk about trying to walk both sides of the street at once
by Mick Collins on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm
go Harry!
by Kinkajou on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Good on you Harry. Finally someone talks sense.
by janice2 on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm
I doubt it. Even moderates like Gary Humphries seem to be lined up behind the “Don’t compromise” option.
I doubt it sadly. It seems the Greens always vote as a block and don’t allow floor crossing.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Perhaps Gina can buy the NewsCorpse papers when they are sloughed of a little later.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Abbott
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm
From the Refugee Council of Australia (RCOA), @:
http://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/n/media/110726-Malaysia.pdf
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:43 pm
the slimes are on
by mickt on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Good onya Fairfax. The Board has a pair.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:43 pm
How will the media pack treat Abbott her I wonder?
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:44 pm
….that was from the start of the deal by the way, not today!
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Abbott on ABC24 – I wish him the horror of being unable to open his big mouth.
by janice2 on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:45 pm
I wonder if Gina can find buyers for her 19% in Fairfax?
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Abbott sounds completely shit scared that the Oakeshott bill is going to pass the House, which would look Abbott look like a certified dickhead.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:45 pm
20k refugees…finally, moving in the right direction!
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:46 pm
That position will probably sew up Moylan and Washer
by spur212 on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Abbott proposing a delayed, relatively minor increase in refugee intake as a compromise with the indies. How will that “stop the boats”?
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Interesting, Abbott has offered to increase refugee intake to 20,000.
The government should support that increase, but also reject the opposition amendments.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:47 pm
@ShowsOn/4569
I thought he always was a certified dickhead? Even back when he was a Howard Minister.
by zoidlord on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:47 pm
looks like there is some movement – surprised if any libs cross the floor now
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Tony Abbott’s word “compromise” is Frank Sinatra’s “My Way”
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Shows On
That would be a killer move!
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:47 pm
meher baba,
It is also the case that the Labor Party’s economic philosophy was altered to a very great and influential extent by Peter Walsh, the West Australian farmer from Katanning, I think it was. He believed that the days of the workers seeking to own the means of production were over and the ALP should modernise it’s thinking and adopt a type of compassionate capitalism. All boats to rise as equally as possible.
However, as far as the Neo-Kenesian response of Swan/Tanner/Rudd & Gillard to the GFC, I was all for it because it was the right thing to do at the time. It worked!
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:48 pm
12 months makes boats an election issue
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:48 pm
hay! thats what i have been saying for over a year now
by rummel on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Is anyone listening to Abbott and Morrison who seem to be saying that the Indies are going to support the Morrison amendment.
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Morrison talking of centres run by UNHCR. If truly in the amendment then Labor vote for it.
It undoes Howard and undoes Abbott as well.
Truly stupid they do not realise it.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Why doesn’t the PM have a Press Conference?
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:50 pm
looks like something has happened – Abbott wouldn’t move this much unless some kind of agreement was close
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Tony Abbott, you are a liar.
by Mick Collins on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Splendid effort from Harry Jenkins.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Time enough when the deed is done.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm
mod lib #4520 said “Exactly how is rendition of women and children to Malaysia ethical?”
Why is it any less ethical than towing them back to Indonesia? Or taking them to Nauru?
The reason the Libs have no ethical core is because all this rabbiting on about human rights is just a ploy. They couldn’t give a toss about the human rights of refugees. The Malaysian solution doesn’t suit them politically. It’s as plain as the noses on their faces.
So, as Mark Dreyfuss said, the Libs actually prefer – for political reasons – to continue to have people die. Hear them bleat, what a disgraceful thing to say. Nope. It’s the truth and he’s called them on it: a man with the surname that resonates with a story of how evil consequences come to those who stoke the fire of prejudice by telling outrageous lies to further their own grubby ends.
Maybe the amoral (and often immoral) press gallery will continue to keep the general populace feeling blase about what the Libs are doing (although I note that even some of the “all’s fair ’cause it’s only a game” brigade like Grattan and Kelly are starting to feel decidely uncomfortable). But, as occurred in the Dreyfuss case, what goes round eventually comes round. Abbott is on an inevitable collision course with the karma that maintains cosmic balance. I have no idea how it will manifest itself, but it tends to act in a swift and decisive fashion. (Of course, it’s hard to see how anything more humiliating could happen to him than finding out that he was cuckolded in fathering his own illegitimate child, but I believe it’s going to).
by meher baba on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm
it appears that the press pack are finally calling abbott on his hypocricy
by Mick Collins on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Are there any Labor senators who would cross the floor and vote with the Greens to block the legislation.
No, I forgot, they can’t or they will be expelled.
Why is it all very well to criticise coalition MPs who don’t cross the floor but not the ALP? After all, the ALP Left such as Doug Cameron were opposed to the Malaysia solution … time for them to stand up and cross the floor if they have a conscience view, and dare the party to expel them.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm
proud to be part of Harry’s electorate
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Abbott’s TURN THE BOATS has been rejected by Indo. Gillard’s Regional Solution has been accepted by Malaysia. Yet, he said his is better
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Check out Hansard from today, his exact quote is:
“We don’t like Malaysia.”
What a diplomat.
by deflationite on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:54 pm
meher baba
I have been expecting this to occur for the best part of 12 months, and still waiting!!
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Sprocket, there’s nothing in your comment of #4481 to convince me that you know much about the subject. No media outlet I’m aware of puts an apostrophe in Magistrates Court.
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:55 pm
ModLib
The HCA doesn’t consider ethics — just the scope of authority, in this case, of the Howard-designed provisions of the Migration Act. They decided that the minister was exceeding the terms of his authority in implementing Malaysia — and they’d probably rule the same way on Nauru, were it tested as things stand.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:56 pm
C@tmomma
Thanks for your kind remarks re my Mum. she is a little brighter today! Broken leg getting back into bed on Friday night. Great care and attention in the public Prince of Wales in Randwich.
by MTBW on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:56 pm
I’ve been a player and observer in national Australian politics for 40 years. It’s never been as low or putrid. It lacks the slightest semblence of class. Its sending a message to the world. I’ve been in Washington ( and things are pretty crook there) recently, but people there can’t believe what they read and hear about us. It was writ large today. Go no further than Morrison’s words and deeds. He’s contemptible. I’m wondering what to do.
by al palster on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Abbott simply won’t let the government take up the Malaysia deal because he is paranoid that it will work, and thus take illegal immigration off the table as an election issue.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:56 pm