Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
C@tmomma @ 4578 I didn’t have any problem with how Rudd and co responded to the GST. I was referring to Rudd’s misguided waffle that featured in some of his international speeches and in one coma-inducing articule he wrote for The Monthly.
by meher baba on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:56 pm
I can recall Bill Hayden’s definition of a Social Democrat as a “Capitalist with a Conscience” – back in the early 1970′s I guess.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:56 pm
BBS only Coalition MP’s can be hypocritical. This is despite Coalition MP’s crossing the floor over refugee policy in the past.
By the way ML is technicaly correct about rendition which is the handing over of a person by one country to another. If the act is illegal then it becomes extraordinary rendition.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Short Abbott.
“It’s OK for us to vote with the Greens in the Senate to defeat a bill passed by the HoR but it’s not OK for Labor to vote against a bill in the Senate.”
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:57 pm
If Ms Rhinehart wants to shift 19% of Fairfax shares I am willing to take them off her hands if she pays me, say, 10c a share.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Ah, yes, rendition.
Would that be rendition with torture or rendition without optional and random drowning?
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:59 pm
So that means turning boats around and sending them back to Indonesia is rendition.
But Mod Lib seems to support that.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:59 pm
meher baba
Aren’t there far more important issues before us today than talking about how Rudd speaks?
Lord help us!
by MTBW on Jun 27, 2012 at 5:59 pm
At this stage I want to say no matter what side you are on you have to give one Mr Oakshott credit. He has worked hard to save lives. Greens, Labor, Liberal and National would agree I would think.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Lets see what they do on this vote before you blow your trumpet too much.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Translation: The Greens are a party that declares its principles, campaigns on them in good faith, and thus csan ensure that those who support us know what they are supporting.
It’s hard to imagine any member of our party who wouldn’t be scandalised by an MP of ours ditching our values to curry momentary favour with the xenophobes and political hacks of the right.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:01 pm
guytaur @ 4608
Hear hear!
by MTBW on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:01 pm
r Posted Wednesday, June 27, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink
Stuff the Ball! Keep sitting until the Bill dealt with – and QT conducted.
Here here
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:01 pm
No it isn’t because a boat in Indonesian waters trying to get to Australian waters without authority is an Indonesian problem, not an Australian one.
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:01 pm
The drum have an actual refugee on their panel tonight,
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:02 pm
The government should support the opposition’s refugee intake increase AND it should add it to the Oakeshott bill to make it law.
But it should reject the current idiotic wrecking amendments.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Wow a guy goes offline for a few days to get an arm full of chinese hamster juice and the MOARS and BOATS explode.
by ruawake on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Shows On yes I would argue that is correct leaving that part of ML’s argument open to question. Of course legally it would depend on whether Australia took responsibility of the boat initially and subsequently passed that responsibility to another country.
Under our international obligations I personally don’t believe we can hand a boat of people back to Indonesia but I’m no international law expert.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:02 pm
The coalition has lost the debate by default
by Meguire Bob on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:03 pm
I made a more generous offer than that on Twitter the other day, BW. I offered to take them off her hands for $1 … and donate them all to GetUp!
by Fran Barlow on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Good on you moderate libs (Broadbent, Washer and Moylan)
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:03 pm
View details ·
View details ·
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Probably not the greatest time but are there any takers for the,,,
END OF THE WORLD SYDNEY BLUDGERS JULY 1st LEBBO NOSH-UP
at Abdul’s 12 noon Sunday?
If so please email me at bushfirebill1953@hotmail.com
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:04 pm
4560
Bk did you see williams link a few oages back then
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Hi ru
Trust all is well?
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Gee bushfire did u just give your age away
Your a youngster
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Um, actually they haven’t voted for the bill yet so there is little to thank them for.
But I agree you are a moron so you don’t understand what is actually happening.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:05 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/no-seat-for-rinehart-fairfax-chairman-says-20120627-211×2.html
No seat for Rinehart at Fairfax.
by MTBW on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:06 pm
my say @ 4624
I may have. What was it about?
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:06 pm
@BreakingNews: European court upholds Microsoft fine, cuts it by 39 million euros to 860 million euros ($1.1 billion) – @AP
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:06 pm
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:06 pm
The coalition are lying in this debate
the howard government used Nauru when it was an non signatory country
it has never used Nauru as an un signatory
by Meguire Bob on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Dave wasn’t blowing anything just telling it like it happened. I think on balance Coalition MP’s have a better record of voting on principle than Labor MP’s if crossing the floor is a way of measuring that.
by davidwh on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:06 pm
4613 – Mod Lib – How well do you think the indonesians will react to an Australian military vessel entering it’s waters?
So what’s the effect of this thing Abbott and Morrison just did a presser about? Anything?
by Burgey on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:06 pm
From the University of Technology Sydney Publications Style Guide:
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:06 pm
ruawake
Ah so you are the cause of this MOARAGEDDON !!
You should take a short break more often !!
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Fine, just wiped out a few bazillion B-Cells.
by ruawake on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:07 pm
If it is in international waters it can stay there, but it just cant come into Australian waters.
If it is in Australian waters, it is very much Australia’s responsibility and it should come to Australia and the occupants of the vessel should be managed here (mandatory health and security checks- fine, but then some form of humane housing that doesn’t include having children behind barbed wire).
If it is in danger then the nearest help needs to provide help and it should be taken/the occupants should be taken to the nearest logical place where they can be managed.
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Greens in an interesting position here – if one of these two options is going to get up – and i think one will – are they better off staying out or trying to shape it???
out would be my call but it might be the way they go
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:07 pm
ru
Bazillion? Sure it was not eleventymillion?
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:08 pm
From my perspective, I am not sure how increasing the total refugee intake helps get the bill through, but it may well have helped the moderate liberals not cross the floor and I suspect they used it as a bargaining chip in their negotiations with Morrison and Abbott…
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:09 pm
The same lib faces lining up to give speeches on the amendments, then the same people lining up to do it again in order to spin the time out.
abbott back in the house to get a vote reported on the ABC 7 pm News ?
He looks like he has any defectors under control. Hope I am wrong.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:09 pm
[C@tmomma re
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/smartphone/article.aspx?id=8490382
Surprise surprise!
by Gecko on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:09 pm
And achieves SFA on 90% of the issues they give a stuff about. Other than a warm and fuzzy feeling of maintaining some self-righteous purity.
by bluegreen on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Is Abbott that stupid, does he think his bill would pass the senate
by Meguire Bob on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Abbott now putting his “sweetener” on the table.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:10 pm
rendition BOO!
I would rendition Mod Lib anywhere if it would help stop these drownings.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:11 pm
He just wants the bill to fail on Labor votes so he can blame the government again.
Of course he won’t mention that the Morrison amendments are just wrecking amendments designed to stop the government from pursuing its preferred policy.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:11 pm
William
What else would you expect from UTS?
by bluegreen on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:11 pm
uh oh!
@BBCGavinHewitt: Spanish Prime Minister concedes that Spain cannot afford to finance itself for much longer at the rates it is having to pay #spain
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 6:11 pm