Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
But who, as an asylum seeker, wants to be in the first 800 who get shunted off to Malaysia? This basic fact needs to be communicated to the potential boat passengers and the tour guide’s business plan will be severely damaged.
by It’s Time on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:27 pm
This little black duck
An R’s one.
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:27 pm
womble
The Greens are not against Off Shore processing. They are for upholding the UNHCR and UN Refugee Convention. What the Greens will do is start lobbying hard for Malaysia and Indonesia to sign up to those treaties.
That regional solutions is the important thing the Greens will be working for. I assume that there has been discussion on this and is part of the reason for Bandt voting as he did.
Otherwise to me it does not make sense as a move from the Greens.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:28 pm
finny
300,000 is very conservative, if you take in health effects as well.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Meher
Could this be part of abbotts karma
His whole term has depended on boats and other things,
If this gets through the senate
Is this his karma
Something he played all tbe time nullified
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Remember when Mr Beazley said in Parliament that the [Howard] Government doesn’t need a “carping opposition” to get in the way when the national interest is at stake during the 2001 Tampa crisis?
Mr Abbott’s behaviour is unconscionable – and it’s regrettable that our press gallery has such short memories that they are unable to draw this stark contrast.
Shame on them and those who make apologies for them.
by Darren Laver on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:28 pm
“A Pyrrhic victory.”
You know what happened to the Romans?
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:29 pm
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:29 pm
What happens if one of the 800 sent back to Malaysia hops on another boat and heads back?
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Albo now pointing out that Abbott has done an about face from this arvo.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Has everyone already forgotten that there was a lull in boat arrivals after the inital announcement of the Malaysia deal? The boats stopped in anticipation – no-one wanted to end up in Malaysia. When the deal was off the boat arrivals increased.
by leone on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:30 pm
how could the liberal party go with abbott as leader, if this bill passes the senate
by Meguire Bob on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Leigh with Mother Milne on 7.5 shortly. Now, let’s see.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Albo saying he is “not comfortable” with current arrangements.
In other words, he doesn’t have the ticker of the moderate liberals and is going to cave in and not ‘rock the boat’.
Epic fail.
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Anyone who is sent to Malaysia is barred from ever settling in Australia.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:32 pm
I am really proud of this Minority Parliament. It’s a BISON to me
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Getting close now.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:32 pm
about face from this arvo.
In what way ducky
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:32 pm
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Amendment to be voted on. Division.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:33 pm
jessica @jessiikkaaahhh
@JoeHockey Howard sent two 9 year old boys back to Afghanistan They are now dead. Don’t tell us about refugees.#auspol #asylum #qt #HoR
by Lyne Lady on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:33 pm
They not only go to the back of ‘the queue’, they are off it forever.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:33 pm
This issue is very close to backfiring in Abbott’s face.
Most Australians, regardless of their previous views of Malaysia or Nauru or anything else, are crying out for the Parliament to just come together in a non-political way and quickly pass relevant legislation to remove any and all incentive for people to make this perilous journey.
Enough is enough — we all know Abbott would like to score more points on this, but even many of his supporters can see political point scoring has its limits when women and children can drown.
The Hansonist element while strong in the LNP is still not the majority.
by Darren Laver on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Maybe but they have probably also read this “how to” manual.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/16735390@N00/3852471007/
by citizen on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Too Right Finns
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Tone was supporting the Oakeshott bill. When his amendments weren’t carried he spat the dummy.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Lyne Lady,
Jeebus wept, he did that?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Proud of my member Oakeshott, also Windsor – we must work to counter the getridofrob the nationals are promoting…..
by Lyne Lady on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:34 pm
puff!!
apparently
by Lyne Lady on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Yep, that’s what I pointed out.
Abbott knows this, hence he doesn’t want it to be implemented by this government.
But you can bet he will implement it, or something very, very similar, if and when he has a majority in the House.
by Darren Laver on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:35 pm
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:35 pm
leone
Going back a few nights and my link to some pre war delta blues. This could be the song sung in ‘Jacksonville’ . Basically shite happens to every man she hooks up with.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPGzKEhQUsw
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:36 pm
If this is true and the greens make a deal the I fully expect it would be on the basis of the lesser of two evils. This would be a significant increase in the numbers coming through the camps from Malaysia. So it probably won’t be 800 for 4000, probably more 800 for 10,000.
Having said that it WILL be the beginning of the end for Abbott because he (and his hench poodle) have caused people in his own party to act against their internal beliefs.
If it hasn’t started already then the white anting will start very soon. The media will also, given the fact that the government would have succeeded, go for Abbotts throat. Given their reaction at this afternoons b*llshit briefing I would expect lots of harder, more critical and difficult questions.
by Smaug on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Could be the best we’ve ever had… and the Coalition have added absolutely zip.
by Gecko on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Dee,
Just when I thought my loathing for Howard could not deepen any farther, I find I have to dig a bigger hole.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:36 pm
How about fewer drownings at sea. Isn’t that a big enough payoff?
by It’s Time on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Mod lib
Albo is from italian origins like we are dutch, boat people
Thats what i would say he means.
He also attended a chritian bro. School which has the philosphy of helping all people
No matter
Words and deeds .
Our motto
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Guytaur – Greens believe, and rightly so, that if some makes it here they should be processed here not sent off-shore. That is off-shore processing and what they are against
Regional processing on the way through is the right way to go though – take away the need to get on boats because there are genuine, fast moving queues
Sunset clause gets up by looks of things
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Ah Milne explains why Bandt voted for Wilkie amendendment. Will still vote down in Senate.
So impasse remains.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Greens won’t support in the Senate.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Darren @4972,
Good points.
Especially tomorrow when he comes out screaming and shouting about how it will not get through the senate etc. etc.
The perception will be of more No No No.
Parliament has passed the legislation now he will not accept it.
by Doyley on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:38 pm
How honest and brave is that? Top stuff Mr. Hat
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Where is rudd
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Unbelievable. The greens are as bad as Abbott. Unfricking believable.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:39 pm
womble
Yes you are right. I was thinking of Regional as Off Shore.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Then they will own the deaths alongside the Coalition.
by Gecko on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Tory SCUM.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/refugees-howard-rejected-are-back/story-e6frg6so-1225792639421
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:39 pm
wow. Milne still going to block in the Senate. talk about obstructionist.
by middle man on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:39 pm
So is katter voting yes this time
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:40 pm
WeWantPaul
The law or not the law is the Green position.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 7:40 pm