Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Shorter Christine Milne – “Australia should take in an unlimited number of refugees”.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Dave
Perhaps I interpreted that tweet different to you.
As in, looking tortured and sitting next to Bishop.
It seems from observers comments that she was shadowing him.
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Guytaur, the deep blue water in the way and its inconsistency with reliable human survival is a more significant fact in my mind. Ever been close to drowning? I have. Didnt like it much.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Its Time.
That is not the answer. We could just fly them here. Give more funding to the UNHCR so it can have more than two people in the camp in Indonesia. They are serious suggestions if you want to avoid death at sea. Of course it will mean more numbers coming.
So choose death at sea or numbers coming as your principle on this issue.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:13 pm
If he posts again, sprocket_, I’ll tell him to find a new name. But I don’t think he’s going to.
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Mod Lib
I DO NOT give a smurf about the polls tonight.
I am not a Liberal.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Im pissed off with the Libs and disgusted with the Greens.
by rummel on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Ms Bishop did not kiss Mr Washer.
She inserted her ovipositor and wham, bam, thank you Ma’am! The resultant hatchling ate his bran.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Mauler
see 5153
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:14 pm
MM
Ditto. It is dreadful.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:14 pm
This is a very sad question but has the actual legislation passed the House or just the amendments ?
I have been too busy typing !
Cheers in advance.
by Doyley on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Utterly pathetic. Not much solace to those drowning.
Go tell it to them.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Doyley,
Gruesome details at http://aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Chamber_documents/Live_Minutes_-_House
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:16 pm
William, see
http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Chamber_documents/Live_Minutes_-_House
All the names on last division now up
by Leroy on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Poor mod lib
Got beaten by a party that cares
Sweet dreams all what a day
I
Pray hope do what ever for a miracle in the senate
May the force be with us
God bless
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Ok, here is a fun game. The wet, moderate, liberal Liberals. They go off and form their own party. (Suspend your disbelief for a minute)
What do they call it?
by Scrutineer on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:16 pm
I remember St Bob gloating on Lateline after defeating Rudd’s ETS in the Senate. He smirked and raved on about having control after the next election when the Greens would get their legislation through. Christine Milne is after the same chance to gloat.
The Greens should enjoy their current senate numbers, they won’t see it ever again. If they vote against Oakeshott’s bill tomorrow they will alienate a lot of the deluded folks who voted for them last election thinking they were just Labor candidates in different coloured shirts.
by leone on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Gillard/Bowen presser about tomorrow’s Senate deliberations.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Good on Rob Oakeshott for introducing amendments which purged Bowen’s nonsense about non judicial review of the minister’s decisions.
That this clown still gets a guernsey at pressers defies belief.
by shellbell on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:18 pm
It looks like it will be a Milne/Abbott victory in the Senate tomorrow. Ms Milne wants onshore or drownings. Mr Abbott wants Nauru or drownings. They are prepared to accept a compromise of drownings or drownings.
Seems logical to me in today’s Australia.
They will have blood on their hands, if so.
BTW, I do hope the Liberal senators do not get confused and try and run out of the Senate to avoid accepting Ms Milne’s green-tainted vote.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:18 pm
That was no kiss from Bishop, she was whispering something to Washer. A death threat probably.
by leone on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:18 pm
You never know, we might have a repeat of December 2009. The Libs have a leadership stoush tonight and the new leader changes the outcome in the Senate.
I doubt it will, but it’d be good if it did. I think several Liberals are deeply upset with what Abbott forced them to do tonight.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm
rummel
Well said good sir.
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm
dave @ 5114
Absolutely agree. Washer and Moylan have a history of taking the high moral ground on these sorts of issues, but then fold when the crunch comes. Pathetic!!
by feeney on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Tlbd @5162,
Thanks.
by Doyley on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Hopefully the greens and aunty milne are just using this as an opportunity to get some amendments tomorrow.
If they flat out vote against it without proposing amendments then we know they have jumped the shark.
If compromise is attempted and/or reached they stay in Al’s eating hamburgers (tofu of course).
by deflationite on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm
And here’s that act’s Western Australian equivalent, sans apostrophe.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/mca2004214/
Rather proving my point, I feel, that it doesn’t pay to get prescriptive about this particular point of detail.
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm
I see it’s still about politics with some people here….honestly, slogans, gloating and sniping is totally inappropriate when people are drowning off our shores…
It remains to be seen what the Greens will do tomorrow.
by liyana on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Labor
by rummel on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm
How about ‘Compassionate Conservatives’?
LOL
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Further to post 5165. There are 5 names which should be easy to pick for those historically minded.
by Scrutineer on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Ohh talk about emotional blackmail Bowen’s appeal followed by a casualty report. Noaltion gonads in a vice.
by poroti on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:20 pm
I do have to remind people who may not have been here when I posted this the first time.
My mind on the AS has not been made up. I am still wrestling my conscience on the issue.
I actually have a lot of sympathy to the Labor position here.
I am just pointing out that for the Green policy position they have what they want. What they want is to reduce the drowning with on shore processing. None of what has been said to them by any of the arguments you are putting here seems to have changed their minds.
Calling any green votes and supporters names and accusing them and their party of not being responsible is very rich aimed at the party that at its core is at the preserving of the eco system.
This includes population as an issue. As a result do not think supporting on shore processing would have been an easy policy position to reach.
They have decided they are going to support the UNHCR and UN Refugee conventions as their bottom line. Like it or not it is their position.
The government is going to have to deal with that. Or embrace the Coalition.
That is the Government’s dilemma tonight. Calling the Greens names will not change that essential fact.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:21 pm
There will be toMOARrow in the Senate say the BISONs
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Finally, Rummel and Mod Lib are back to their value adding best…
by Scrutineer on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:21 pm
I have a very rude answer to that question which involves the word wet and also a very naughty word.
by deflationite on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Isn’t that last division on the gag motion, rather than the second or third reading? The key votes are the 74-72 results referred to here, where the votes aren’t recorded:
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:22 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Christine Milne on 7.30 bursting into sudden praise for an apparently reforming Abbott. FITH Syndrome.
Criticism of Labor’s dismantling of Howard’s asylum seeker keeper outer mechanisms ignores the fact that Turnbull & his troops didn’t show up to vote against it, owing to the threat of some Liberals to actually use their vaunted right to cross the floor & vote with the government.
by BSA Bob on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:23 pm
I think it is all about Greens feeling the need for relevance.
I’ll probably get ” shot ” for saying this but does the Afghani goat herder have the same chance of trying to get on a boat to seek asylum or is it only the rich? If $20,000 is the asking price then I suspect it’s again only the rich who get an opportunity. If what I’m saying is correct then the romantic notion of a poor refugee doesn’t ring true to me.
by RNM1953 on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:23 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Memo to The Greens: Once is an accident (ETS), twice is very very stoooopid
by The Finnigans on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:25 pm
For once i agreewith you
by scoutdog on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:25 pm
guytaur
I didn’t forget. That’s the choice where lots of people drown.
P.S. I am actually not opposed to people getting on boats if that is the only option open to get away. People take responsibility for their actions, and if they believe that it’s worth taking that risk to escape their current dire circumstances then I’m not going to tell them they’re wrong. But politicians, senators in particular now, who want us to intervene to force people to stay where they are have to consider the available choices. There are only two.
by triton on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Mod Lib: Moylan and Washer just proved there is no such thing as a “compassionate conservative” when the numbers are tight.
They just follow the party line. Except when they know their numbers don’t count and then they get on their moral high horses … which mysteriously disappear as soon as it is possible to seriously embarrass your leader.
Mind you, this also calls into serious question the “Liberals are a broad church” line.
If there is one thing Liberals are good at, it’s shifting the goalposts.
Or coming out with outright BS, whichever your choose …
by Danny Lewis on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:25 pm
think you’re spot on William and the PM seemed to support that just now as well
well done Mal – stood up for what he believed in
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:26 pm
So all this liberal *broad church* stuff is crap. If you try it on you will be stood over.
Moylan leaves at the end of this Parliament but also failed to carry her own convictions – which she & Washer had talked loud and widely about for days to big groups of politicians from many party’s – “concerned people” of course.
And at the first shot of gunfire – they shit themselves and rollover.
Pathetic.
I just hope its all replayed on the media and a copy given to them for their golden years.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Finns
Exactly the same memo can be sent from the Greens to Labor.
by guytaur on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Will Mary Jo Fishers vote tomorrow be a tainted vote.
by Schnappi on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:26 pm
So Washer did not vote with the gov’t. They sent the shepherdess to get the straying sheep?
So what the-smurfing-well happened to your ‘proud tradition’ of Liberal floor-crossing, Mod Lib?
Not a chance in the Abbott Stasi-land you support, we can all see.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:26 pm