Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BK Wow, she can wear a frock! Thanks
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Abbott has been ‘gawn’ every week on PB for the last two years.
Anyway what is this sprocket/sprocket_ stuff? Who is the imposter?
by bluegreen on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:07 pm
I guess there’s another possibility – the Greens move an amendment that Labor agrees with, it passes the Senate, then goes back to the HoR. In fact it’d have a higher chance of passing since Bandt would have to vote for a Greens amended bill.
But they seem very set against the whole premise of the bill, so I don’t think it’ll happen.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Well with libs (and Greens) there is ever the need to have it documented, particularly now. You cannot to vote for measures thatr result in drownings and walk away with blood on your hands.
Even more so is to hold them to account for putting barriers in the way of people trying to stop drownings and playing games in the parliament for abbotts political benefit.
The libs are a total disgrace. The party of menzies are long gone.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Sadly a lot don’t feel that way. There are just too many redneck Nats and too many Sydney expat bigots in Lyne. Let’s hope a few thousand voters have a good hard think and change their minds before the next election.
by leone on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Generally yes, Mod Lib, but not always as politically savvy as some others.
Then again, political savvy is well down my list, after negotiating skills, being a decent human being and not being a Bronwyn Bishop or Sophie Mirabella.
by Swing Required on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:08 pm
by bluegreen on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:10 pm
How will this wash out with the populace? Hoping it is a case of one side actually offering a solution(the Govt.) with another going No no no no no no
but then again the way it will be reported in the msm will be completely different
by scoutdog on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Tells you all you need to know about the Greens. When it comes to a vote on refugees, they are on the side of Morrison and Abbott. No guts, no morals.
My wife and daughter are Greens supporters, or were until today.
by Michael on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Does anyone know of a direct link to the list of countries that are signatories to the refugee convention?
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:12 pm
I have discussed the apostrophes situation with an extremely well-regarded, multiple award-winning, professional editor (OH) who consulted the only true national standard viz, the authoritative Commonwealth Style Manual, before venturing an opinion.
The answers are: ‘magistrates court’; ‘teachers rally’ because these are descriptive rather than possessive.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:13 pm
What’s the problem? Bronnie is very caring for old people with her kerosene and Sophie is so nice to older men.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:13 pm
This little black duck,
Noorty Ducky!
by scorpio on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:13 pm
Dee
Its most countries of the world except oddly the majority of SE Asian nations.
by bluegreen on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:14 pm
If the Greens were intelligent, they could bury Abbotts career Tommorow.
As I said, IF they were intelligent
by Mick Collins on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Australia suffers from ASSDD: asylum seeker solution deficit disorder.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Thanks for that, tlbd.
You are totally correct, of course.
by Swing Required on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:15 pm
St bob pulled them back from the end often. He had a lot of political savvy – an overused expresions – but true in his case.
When more die at sea – its down to abbott and his extreme thugs and his mates the greens.
Bossum buddies in causing mayhem and heartbreak and they will be reminded of it long and hard.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Search engine is your friend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_Relating_to_the_Status_of_Refugees
by It’s Time on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Send your thoughts to Rob Oakeshott. He’s done good today and deserves some kind words.
http://roboakeshott.com/contact-rob
by leone on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:16 pm
scorpio,
Thought you might find an internet connection.
by This little black duck on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:19 pm
@Poroti 5034
Not a Scouser or a Mancusian.
Born in Wallasey on the Wirral peninsula – makes me from Cheshire.
Was a baby then – now an Aussie citizen by choice.
by deewhytony on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:19 pm
The price of oil was north of $100 per barrel. It is now hovering at around $80 per barrel. The US has higher oil reserves than it has for the last 22 years. OPEC is having problems arrangement a cut in oil production by the 1 million bb per day which would have an inflationary impact on the oil price.
For all these reasons, kerosene should, therefore, also be cheaper.
Just in time for the retirement bulge of the baby boomers.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:20 pm
Another “peak Abbott” comment about 15 months before the first one, eh?
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:20 pm
How about “good bye”?
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Poll: Has the Fairfax board done the right thing by denying Gina Rinehart representation?
Yes 76%
No 24%
Total votes: 6428.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/no-seat-for-rinehart-fairfax-chairman-says-20120627-211×2.html#ixzz1yzY3XRsW
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:21 pm
after
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:22 pm
[Send your thoughts to Rob Oakeshott. He’s done good today and deserves some kind words.
http://roboakeshott.com/contact-rob
I did mybit.
Told him he’d “Played hard, done fine”.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:23 pm
CLEARLY YOU’RE JUST FUCKING ANGRY THAT HE FUCKED YOUR LEADER’S SHIT UP TODAY.
HE SHOWED HOW TO ACTUALLY NEGOTIATE SOMETHING THROUGH THE HOUSE WHICH YOUR LEADER HAS COMPLETELY FUCKING FAILED AT FOR THIS ENTIRE PARLIAMENT.
NO WONDER YOU’RE DEPRESSED.
by ShowsOn on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Sure anytime.
Good bye, Good bye.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Re #5242 sometime I’d like to attempt to register an Actually Liberal Liberal Party (ALLP). The ideological imposters who call themselves the Liberal Party would certainly attempt to stop it but hopefully the attempt would at least generate a platform for further criticism of their failure to live up to their name. I add that under Abbott that failure seems especially acute and comprehensive, and I am not using “liberal” in the modern American sense here either.
by Kevin Bonham on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:24 pm
leone:
O did good today, and deserves to be praised.
Why aren’t you at all concerned at a) the decline in moderate Liberals, and b) that today’s Liberal party is more jacketted than the ALP when it comes to free votes?
Why occupy your obsessions with the fate of non-Liberal MPs like O and not with the very real and disconcerting fractures in the party your screen name purports to support?
by confessions on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Just for you punctuators..
http://www.apostrophecatastrophes.com/
by cud chewer on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:24 pm
i’ve never seen you so bitter Mod Lib.
by middle man on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Mod Lib, remember when the Independents were working out who to support after the election?
I remember that just about everyone thought they were great.
It was only when they made the ‘wrong’ decision that they suddenly became toxic to some.
I listen to Rob Oakeshott when he speaks in Parliament.
He’s a decent person, IMO.
by Swing Required on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:26 pm
BB
I have also sent RO an email.
by BK on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:26 pm
There is another possible course of action for the Coalition in the Senate – abstain.
Could be attractive – means they can’t get fitted up with every death in transit. You can bet the media will draw that inference from now on if the legislation is defeated – the government won’t have to say a thing whenever a boat sinks. It’s just too juicy a story for the media to pass up – they love reporting mass death – really brings in the advertising dollar.
Abstaining could be justified on the basis that this is such a putrid, nay “tainted”, bit of legislation that they can’t even touch it with their votes – sort of fits with Abbott running from Thomson.
by ajm on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:26 pm
A Liberal voting friend of mine has in the past toyed with the idea of registering The Genuine Liberal Party, out of protest for what the actual Liberal party has become.
by confessions on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:26 pm
leone
Thanks for Oakshott link. Have sent an email of appreciation.
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Wonder why FairWork did not discover jackson credit cards in brothel??
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/smartphone/article.aspx?id=8490382
by Schnappi on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Where did you get the idea I am not concerned about the paucity of moderates?
LOL
I was just saying he was gone. Its a political blog, I don’t see your problem.
Well, I do, but do you?
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Something about organizing a root in same?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Mick C – Milne and Bandt are too busy praising him for something he promised knowing full well that the Morrison’s amendment was not going to get through. I thought it strange that he expected everyone to accept his promises today and yet he said that his policy for the election campaign will not be released until the battle begins. He could easily drop the 20,000 extra promise.
or is Milne just praising Abbott to put pressure on Labor to increase the numbers. I sound a bit like Michelle Grattan there
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Leone . Have done
by my say on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Conversly, voting with the Abbott Fibs in the senate would do damage to the Greens over the longer term
by Mick Collins on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:28 pm
It’sTime
Moi has been searching for a collated list via google and have been frustrated by detours.
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:29 pm
The libs were always like that . They just lied about it as they always do.
That really what it means to be a so called liberal. You are free n easy with the truth and everyone knows it.
Now if there is a quid in it….all the better.
Apparently.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:29 pm
The GLIBs?
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:30 pm
BB
or maybe,
Something about a spare dick at a HSU team building course?
by Boerwar on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Tom Hawkins said:
That passage from Robbie Burns comes to mind. Simply astonishing. Plainly, being seeing oneself as a manifestation of the PR needs of a major conservative party does dreadful things to one’s ability to avoid saying patently absurd things in public.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 27, 2012 at 9:31 pm