Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Let’s make no mistake about this.
When it comes to being “a broad church”, Liberal members are only allowed to vote with their conscience when the numbers aren’t tight.
When the Liberals overwhelmingly have the numbers, they can do what they like.
When numbers are finely drawn, they have to vote with the party leader – or else.
That is NOT a broad church. That is a dictatorship.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Some Labor people – like Doogie mouth off and it doesn’t seem to effect him.
But the so called liberal wide church is shown today as crap – like most stuff from the libs, even when they are leaving the parliament – they cave in….after mouthing off
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:04 pm
Perhaps exhibit A for the case that you condemn anything I post because you have seen the “Lib” in my moniker, I suggest.
I have posted so many things critical of Abbott I don’t know where to start.
There is no paucity of Abbott criticisms here, what is missing is any objective analysis of how pathetic Gillard has been.
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:04 pm
For those who are interested in The Greens Party position and finding out what is being proposed and said by its parliamentarians firsthand (a selective list)
1. Transcript of Christine Milne’s interview on ABC 7.30 program tonight:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3534359.htm
2. SH-Y media release, 27 June 2012: http://sarah-hanson-young.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/greens-take-proposal-safer-pathways-cross-party-meeting-refugees
3. Safe Pathways for Asylum Seekers and Refugees: Possibilities for a Regional Solution: http://sarah-hanson-young.greensmps.org.au/sites/default/files/26_06_12_-_safe_pathways_regional_solution.pdf
I understand that there are some people who would rather make a judgment based on an uncritical acceptance of the emotively charged opinions offered by some of the Laborites here.
I am not speaking to them. Personally I am not interested in engaging with individuals who justify and argue their position while calling those who disagree with them as “murderers who have blood on their hands”.
Politics of the two major political parties – emotive sloganeering, fear-mongering, and appeals to the dark side of human nature – enjoy.
My OH and I remain steadfast members of the Greens Party.
Regardless of what policy Australia adopts, asylum seekers and refugees will continue to use whatever means are at their disposal, including boats, to reach a safe haven.
by Pegasus on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Finns
American Indian quote
I know now what this meant, that the bison were the gift of a good spirit and were our strength, but we should lose them, and from the same good spirit we must find another strength.
Black Elk
by Rossmore on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Mod Lib,
I say that because the Liberals say they can cross the floor when they can’t.
The ALP does not pretend their members can.
The Liberals are liars.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:06 pm
OK, so we know the Coalition senators won’t support Oakeshott’s bill tomorrow, and it requires Greens support.
At the moment, that seems virtually impossible.
However, as we have seen, something that seems virtually impossible in this parliament sometimes ends to the contrary.
As we have seen, the Greens are open to negotiation. It’s easy for us to suggest that they are all mugs and don’t know how to play the political game, and as a result of voting against the bill, “all their cred will be lost”. It’s silly to say that. In fact, to many, their cred will be lost should they do a complete 180. They’re standing up for long-held beliefs which you can disagree with, but not question their credibility.
I suggest that Labor know the bill is dead, and will move on to the next phase over the winter break knowing that the public perception is the Greens siding with Abbott to force a stalemate. Another belief that will play out in the MSM is that Gillard couldn’t get it done this time.
My question for serious discussion – what AMENDMENTS could be made to the already amended Oakeshott bill to get Greens support in the Senate tomorrow?
There’s always something to offer. No doubt the offices are working on it as we speak.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:07 pm
CO:
I don’t know if it was you, but somebody did say recently that up close he’s a buffoon. I’ve never bought into that persona of his, not since back in the days he appeared with Rudd on Sunrise. First sign of difficulties with his line of argument and he turns into a prick. He’s got the same problem as Robb – neither of them have the faintest idea how to pull apart an opponent’s argument, so they just resort to a stream of negative adjectives. And then go on the defensive.
by Aguirre on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:07 pm
But the ALP isn’t a dictatorship of course, yeah?
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Danny
They are more broad church when it comes to backgrounds and professional careers than your typical six years at Uni then working in a MPs office then working as a staffer and in a Union and then getting pre-selected…
Independent when voting on issues? No the Libs are not you are correct but is Labor? Don’t you automatically get the boot from the Party if you ever vote against Caucus??
by Gary Sparrow on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Hey Mod Lib,
Just swallow your pride and think of Turnbull. You never know, in a situation like this he might have done something (gulp) decent. Not like that guy Abbott who claim you don’t like but you still stick up for everything he does.. lol
by cud chewer on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:08 pm
CO – I can imagine Hockey being nasty. He often looks and sounds that way but today the faux emotion really made me sick. His praise of Nauru was mindblowing if you think back to how the place was shrouded in secrecy to benefit the Howard Govt and keep us in the dark.
The Senate shld be interesting tomorrow. Just picture Barnaby Joyce participating in the debate!
Orf to bed. Night all
by BH on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:08 pm
ModLib
I think the reason the moderate libs are being condemned is that they’ve been pretending for the last couple of days that they were going to do something they didn’t.
In other words, they reaped all the glory out of potentially crossing the floor whilst managing to avoid the long term consequences.
It’s even more pathetic when there’s really nothing for them to lose, given they’ve gone as far, career wise, as they’re likely to.
At least Labor people don’t pretend they can do something they can’t.
by zoomster on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Ashby Lest we forget
by Rossmore on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Pious Belief and Faith are wondrous things.
They salve the conscience and make the most outrageous obscenity, carried out in their name, palatable.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Aguirre
A close relative of mine has worked up close and personal with the Libs. He says Hockey likes to play nice guy, but he is a buffoon.
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Confessions:
He’s said it a number of times. Not of the Liberals, but of Abbott. I don’t see how he can separate the two, but he claims he can.
by Aguirre on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Is that the reason? OK.
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Glory
I think Milne was pretty adamant in much the same way as Rabbott.
It’s my way or the highway!
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Puulesss – All you ever do is talk up the liberals.
Now you try Mr Nice Guy.
The Liberals all have blood on their hands .
Just forget trying to even pretend the libs care about people drowning *TONIGHT* NOW anywhere, as we speak.
Your party’s initial and ongoing fraudulent conduct with Haneef and the financial liability it opened taxpayers up to !
FFS!
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Gloryconsequence – a hell of a lot of money for regional processing and guarantees around women and children and a BIG increase in the numbers we take and……
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Hey Rob,
I’m sure some days you shake your head and wonder why you are in this game. Well today isn’t one of those days.
You can be very proud of your efforts and sleep soundly in the knowlege that many Australians appreciated the extraordinary efforts you went to today.
I have been somewhat disillusioned over the playing of politics on the bodies of far too many dead people. You restored my faith in humanity tonight.
Thank you,
by Space Kidette on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:12 pm
The cracks in the organic bamboo and mung bean facade of The Greens and their support base are starting to appear:
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:13 pm
by C@tmomma on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Puff
Don’t know if it was me, but I’ve certainly signed one in the past (well, several actually).
Someone has already alluded to why it’s a reasonable system – up until the issue gets decided in the party room, you can say anything you want on the subject. You then get the opportunity to argue your case, to a room filled with like minded individuals, who share much the same values you do.
If you can’t, under those circumstances, convince 50 + 1 %, you have to at least consider that you’re wrong (or the time’s not ripe).
Local councils work under similar rules, and all experts on governance I’ve ever listened to recommend it as a model.
It doesn’t stop you working to change the vote next time the issue comes up; indeed, I can think of multiple examples where I’ve been rolled, after passionately arguing for an outcome, accepted that, explained the outcome in public (you can explain the thinking behind a particular course of action without agreeing with it, that’s not hypocritical), but kept plugging away quietly to change the situation.
by zoomster on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:16 pm
i think people are pretty harsh on the moderate Libs – they got a fair bit out of Abbott – increase to 20k etc
by womble on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:17 pm
If you are fair dinkum, so us these *many things critical of Abbott*
Show us NOW, or you are talking crap!
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:17 pm
zoomster
That may be, but how many of them have family business interests heavily tied up in their Lib/Nat networks or have kids who are interested in a political career in politics? Do you think Abbott, Morrison, Hockey, Brandis would ever forget?
Three generations back and forward, to quote that book, Shogun.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Mod Lib:
Lib MPs refusing to vote with their convictions, and the Lib leader refusing to grant Liberals a conscience vote has nothing to do with Labor.
by confessions on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:18 pm
I have decided to watch the first episode of Game of Thrones. My daughter has been nagging me. She says I will love it.
Very good so far
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0944947/
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:19 pm
If Mob Lib and any Coalition MP actually cared, this deadlock would have been done yonks ago and again tonight, but by the sounds of it, it’s going to continue onwards tommorrow.
by zoidlord on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:19 pm
True, but ALP MPs refusing to vote with their convictions, and the ALP leader refusing to grant ALP MPs a conscience vote does.
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:20 pm
zoomster 5424
It seems fair all the way around to me.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:20 pm
And I should add quite gruesome
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:20 pm
The real question is C@tmomma,
Will the Greens simply vote no, or will they put up their own amendment?
They could in theory (and if they were practical about this) put up an amendment that in effect created a processing center in Indonesia itself.
Now that does two things. If you believe that a processing center in Indonesia itself will be effective in preventing people from getting onto boats, then you could argue with the greens that also allowing a “People swap” has no effect so can do no harm – only to those who get onto boats anyhow, who had the opportunity to be processed in Indonesia anyhow.
Also, it establishes the principle, and creates something that no doubt will be found to be effective, and will be enough out of sight out of mind that whoever comes to power next time is likely to keep and expand on it.
Worth a thought.
by cud chewer on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Waleed Aly got a few texts tonight along those lines.
Interesting times for the Greens.
by confessions on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:21 pm
The ALP cajoling Greens Senators to vote for rendition of asylum seekers to Malaysia will be quite a sight to see tomorrow!
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:21 pm
cud chewer
As per tweet I posted earlier, Milne told Sam Maiden that the Greens may put forward amendments tomorrow
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Mod Lib,
Can you list for what you have criticised/are criticising Abbott? Topics will do, just to jog my hazy memory.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Interesting that out of the 41 who attended the cross party AS meeting today trying to come up with a workable solution only four were from the coalition.
The rest were indies, greens and labor.
Pretty much sums up how little coalition members really care about this issue.
Moderates my arse.
Cut off the head and you still have crap underneath.
by Doyley on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Gary: have you taken a look at the resumes of Liberal/LNP members elected recently?
Apart from those who didn’t expect to win (very young candidates, those with zero community experience or both) – if you look at those pre-selected for the Libs/LNP for WINNABLE seats, exactly the same set-up exists for Lib members in winnable seats as for ALP members … people who have put in the hard yards for the party and are being rewarded.
Look at Pyne. He might have a law degree, but he has worked as a political adviser from the day he graduated (maybe even before) and then became an MP. And he’s not alone.
And the Libs have the gall to suggest that working for a Boo!union is somehow an illegitimate way to get into parliament?
I would argue that putting 5+ years into working for a union, where you get to see legislation that affects real people’s lives up close and to represent said people against those who seek to exploit them gives you a far greater insight into the lives of ordinary people than those who are seeking to exploit said real people in order to preserve their budget bottom line.
One of the great furphies of modern politics is that working for a union is less valued pre-parliamentary work than being a bastard boss. It’s absolute BS from where I stand.
As someone who has spent plenty of years working in the private sector in a “temp” capacity, my observation is that most people appear to go into business for themselves because they have a fundamental inability to get along with other people, hence their desire to be the boss and therefore not subjected to “other people’s rules”. They were crap employees and they are crap bosses as well.
Ask yourself why said people need to get temps in to fix up their administrative messes in the first place …
by Danny Lewis on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Mod Lib:
Labor doesn’t pretend to allow ‘free’ votes.
The Liberals do.
Those Libs who whinged and moaned publicly about AS only to vote with their party should hang their heads in shame.
Incidentally, why doesn’t this outrage you?
by confessions on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Dave
Mod Lib had posted critical comments about Rabbott and his policy positions.
Over the last while, perhaps last couple of months his support seems to have swung in behind him.
Alas, it’s his party of choice, we all get that!
by Dee on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:25 pm
The Coalition grandstanded on GFC and NBN (and delayed!), why AS is any different? I think not!
by zoidlord on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Mod Lib still persisting with that pejorative ‘rendition’ term?
by Rossmore on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Puff
It’s not like it’s something dark and sinister.
I’ve been a member of a Labor policy committee for nearly fifteen years. The vast majority of the decisions we’ve made haven’t even gone to a vote. We manage to work through points of disagreement until we have a consensus.
In those situations, no one’s ‘voting against their conscience’. All the views have been aired, all the problems discussed, and solutions found that (as far as possible in an imperfect world) make everyone happy.
by zoomster on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:26 pm
victoria,
Ta. Wonder if I’ll get a response. It’s bluddy freezing here. Come on doggies, doona time …
Goodnight all.
by Scringler on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Floor crossers:
89% Liberal and National party members
11% ALP
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/31KH6/upload_binary/31kh64.pdf
43% of floor crossers went on to hold higher office (PS or Ministers etc)
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Dee:
Thanks, but bzzzzt. wrong!
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Mod Lib,
Why would ALP members need a conscience vote or the PM to grant one? The ALP does not pretend their members can cross the floor anytime they feel like it. It is the ALP parliamentary team. It is the L/NP who pretend they are a group of like-minded individuals who can vote any how they like and only get together for reciprocal deflea-ing.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:28 pm