Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Have it your way david
Cannot wait tillyou are effected by something
As sute as day meets night u will be or indirectly but thts the risk you take being a tory
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Sue Hoffman @ 522
Thank you for the link.
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:09 pm
According to that, we only need SIX in ONE HUNDRED to change their Vote, piece of cake!.
by 1934pc on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Centre
You refuse to retract and apologise I will ask William to ban you for homophobia.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:10 pm
zoidlord where did I side with Lewis?
My say where did I say the C-M was biased against Newman?
All I am saying is that media at times publish stories for effect and don’t go out of their way to confirm all the facts for fear of killing their stories.
by davidwh on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:11 pm
guytaur
I am confused. What comments from centre are homophobic. I fail to see it
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:11 pm
That’s how valuable Emmo’s tweets are. He usually finds something pertinent to lay on the Libs. Loved the one he put out about Coulson voting with the Howard Govt. in the Senate. Abbott said Howard had never accepted Coulson’s vote – Emmo found about 65 times when he did including the sale of Telstra. Great value for Labor. Latika Bourke retweeted it to her 30,000+ followers who all have their own followers.
by BH on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:12 pm
BH
But according to some, Emerson tweeting demeans him.
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Centre called Guytaur “Gaytaur”, which was obviously very childish of him.
by William Bowe on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Good to see a clear out from the top of fairfax.
by rummel on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Davidwh,
I thought it was NSW where the rent increases were happening as a result of the carbon price compensation not QLD.
by Augustus on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Get over yourself.
Maybe he thinks you’re gay. That doesn’t make him homophobic.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:14 pm
guytaur stop being absurd.
read post 482 and move on!
by Centre on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:14 pm
William
I see. Childish.
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:14 pm
My say 550 I would prefer for you to tell me where I am mistaken than just let me have it my way. However what I wrote is based on what is actually happening in QLD and what the QLD Housing Minister said on the ABC after the story went viral.
by davidwh on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:15 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jun/25/cameron-tories-slash-benefits
Same words entitlement culture
Joes teacher may be
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:15 pm
victoria
Fran Barlow
Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 12:51 pm | Permalink
Centre started:
gaytaur The Greens have a choice;
I assume that is a typo … I hope so.
Centre
Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink
Fran
I make typos, but that is NOT one of them!
You know, if Abbott wins, and he will if Labor concede defeat and adopt his boat policy, there will be a positive.
The Greens will lose balance of power.
Can’t wait!
I then challenged centre on this.
No oh sorry it was a typo. I have seen this typo several times and let it pass because it was a typo. Centre however stated it was not a typo and when challenged refused to retract and apologise.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:15 pm
If the Libs are such the shoo-in that people like Rummel, Mod Lib et al suggest, then why do thier lap-dogs in the press, like Lewis, feel the need to print lies about Goverment descisions ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Centre
Was it a typo or not?
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:15 pm
That’s a typo I made as a genuine mistake.
I withdraw!
by Centre on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:16 pm
If Washer, Moylan and Broadbent abstain from a vote on the floor re Oakeshott’s Bali process amendment then surely the it will pass the HoR.
It could then go to the Senate where maximum pressure from the community would be placed on the Greens and the Conservatives in the lead up to the next election to stop the drownings and resolve the issue .
by Rex Douglas on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Centre
You seem to really HATE Greens. Not sure why?
You should just learn to live with them?
They are a separate party. You cannot tell them what to do or not do.
Labor must make its choices. However I do not think that automatic Greens to Labor preferencing can be taken for granted. This is why Labor needs to keep them sweet. Just as the Libs need to keep the nationals sweet.
I am not sure whether the Greens will end as a soft left party usually in alliance with the ALP or as a centre party which can swing both ways like the Democrats or LDP in the UK. I think the first but it is by no means clear.
What I do suspect is that it will be education/progressive issues that is the decider.
A genuine small L liberal party led by Turnbull would probably get many Greens preferences.
by daretotread on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Tom Hawkins
Look at the thread of comments.
This is not me being precious. This was me asking for a retraction and apology after declaration it was not a typo.
The point Fran was making was exactly that.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:16 pm
OzPol Tragic
Think you made a typo,lewis is The Daily Terror
by Schnappi on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:17 pm
My Say, I can see you including Iraq in that ‘two illegal wars’ … is Afghanistan the other? If so, you seem to be criticising what has been a bipartisan policy since 2001.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Centre
I am guessing you were stating there was no typo with the statement you made, but did not notice how you addressed guytaur
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:17 pm
I am enjoying PB today. Most amusing.
Really looking to 1st July too as it has been a predicted game changer.
The polls have been narrowing for months but only in terms of beta factor ie. Less volatility.
September 2013 getting closer and looking forward to it immensely.
by stanny on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:17 pm
centre
Thank you. I appreciate it,
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:17 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2012/s3532194.htm
full transcript
by Leroy on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:17 pm
guytaur
I still say get over yourself.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:18 pm
To Labor that is, and none moving their vote in the other direction. However what pisses off, appeals to another.
And the polls indicate quite clearly that voters have issues with Gillard in huge numbers, and this will be a significant block to any movement toward Labor. However the Libs are better position to increase their vote, though it would involve making Sidonis and or Turnbull much more prominent.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:18 pm
It hard not to write crap when labor talk crap every day. It must be very hard being a reporter under this government.
by rummel on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:19 pm
BH @ 556
I assume by ‘Coulson’ you mean ‘Colston’.
Obviously too much Leveson Inquiry for you!!
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:19 pm
As i said ihave 9 cousins in qld
One is beeside himself
Words used
Flat, job loses. Fear , re speaking out
Big unemployment coming, depressed, depression,
Wisi we could leave ,
I would put the whole email here but that would be an invasion of privacy
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Augustus there was a report last week in QLD regarding notices sent to people in social housing advising them that their arrangements would be reviewed and where the housing was being under-utilised then they would be offered smaller accomodation to free up the larger housing for families or face a rent review. It was poorly done even if the outcome made some sense. As a result of these notices the media as they tend to do beat it up as a story that people were going to be tossed out of their homes.
People on PB still believe the original media beat-up.
by davidwh on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:20 pm
centre. he’s upset that you spelt his name wrong. gaytaur instead of guytaur.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:20 pm
It was a genuine misrepresentation of your name Guytaur.
I like gays (no not like that) not that there is anything wrong with that
Directly above plagarised from Seinfeld
by Centre on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Tom Hawkins
You do know that cyber bullying starts by doing such things.
That has caused a lot of damage to a lot of people. I will bear looking like a fool to stop any attempts at such behaviour.
After all as you saw. It was a genuine mistake by the looks of it and once centre realised it was fine.
I did think that at first it was the Not a typo that got my back up because that means then it is cyber bully behaviour you see.
So no need to get over myself,
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Obviously too much Leveson Inquiry for y bsp
Hope your watching it its a grear education for u torries
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Would probably get many Greens voters as well.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Centre
You just dont like the Greens.
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:22 pm
centre
I took your withdraw in the full meaning of retraction and apology ala Parliament.
I meant it when I said thank you I appreciate it.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:22 pm
And why is that Rummell ?
Seriously, if the Fibs were such a lay-down-missere, then Lewis wouldn’t need to write crap in an attemp to deflate the Government.
Unless, of course , the Fiberal vote is very soft.
by Mick Collins on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:22 pm
TP
The same APPLIES to ABBOT!.
Turnbull – Utegate anybody!.
by 1934pc on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Mick Collins @ 567
Abbott loses the coalition by default , the pro coalition media and supporters know that
Even on pro coaliton radio show, they have conceded if labor changes some policy’s they dont like
labor wins easily
by Meguire Bob on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:23 pm
WRO NG PERSON NOT MY QUOTE
Conditions that were exacerbate or created by two illegal wars that the Howard Government got Australia into, a government that Tony Abbott was a part of.
NOT ME U KNOW I DONT USE WORDS LIKE THAT LOL
My Say, I can see you including Iraq in that ‘two illegal wars’ … is Afghanistan the other? If so, you seem to be criticising what has been a bipartisan policy since 2001.
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:23 pm
The Puff Adder’s lost a lot of weight.
But the mouth’s still the same!
by BK on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:24 pm
My say it’s not my experience however I can understand that Labor supporters are feeling depressed and also that public servants have very genuine concerns at present. When the media starts talking about 20,000 public service jobs being lost then that causes concern.
by davidwh on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Mick collins
That is definitely the 64,000 question. The polls consistently show a landslide victory to the coaltiion. They can just sit back and relax and wait for power to fall in their lap. But they are not relaxed at all. Obvious reason is that they are the Emperor with no clothes, afraid of being exposed naked
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Mike Bowers@mpbowers
Unprecedented in 181 year history of #Fairfax to loose senior editors across mastheads from outside looks like massive vote of no confidence
by Schnappi on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:24 pm