Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Found one! Mod Lib on Monday:
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:19 pm
DDT
great stuff above # 5536
Are you understudying old coke bottles now ?
THAT WOULD be a STEP UP in the world for YOU
BUT you SEEM to HAVE covered most angles.
Kisses
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:20 pm
The Greens cite the UNHRC as the basis of their opposition to the Malaysia option.
Yet the UnHRC support the Malaysian option.
Go figure.
Ms Barlow and her Green colleagues have still to address this paradox. I suspect we won’t get a response. So much for principle.
by Rossmore on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:21 pm
The Greens adherence to idealism is the same one the Church had when they burnt witches (and wizards) at the stake.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Dave (or should I say Louie)
Will take you post as a compliment
Mind you insects should be scared of DDT.
by daretotread on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Do you want a job as my PA? I desperately need one.
I would insist that you submit your PhD and have it awarded as a bare minimum of course, you understand…..standards and all…
by Mod Lib on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:26 pm
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/ipad/libs-vote-snub-for-deputy-leader/story-fn6bqvxz-1226410525867
by Leroy on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:26 pm
dtt,
The Bolton/Frey/Seaworth storylines were those I was least interested in I am afraid. I appreciate those who hold the books close to heart. I have the same feelings for different books and know what it is like. As with all artforms enjoy what you like and do not worry what others think about it.
by deflationite on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:26 pm
one of the traditions in the Parliament is that members are advised how the record keepers (the chamber departments and Hansard) intend referring to them. They can change this if they so choose.
When told he was to be referred to as R.J.L Hawke, he said he preferred Bob Hawke and this is what he is recorded as. Maybe young Wyatt has pretensions to emulate him?
by sprocket_ on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Why ever not.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Tidbit from Latika at the ball
by victoria on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Will Ashby/Slipper get a run tomorrow?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:31 pm
I used to refer to the Greens as Karl Marx in a Koala suit, idealism irrespective of consequence but look warm and fuzzy.
Might watch Animal Farm again.
by Augustus on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:31 pm
PtMD asked;
Similarly Muttley MacGee proposed:
These questions or their variants have been asked and answered many times, including by me at this place.
No rational person wants to see people drowning. I don’t even wish that on heinous criminals. The question turns on whether one should seek to deter them from making dangerous marine passages by resort to punishment and bullying or by extending compassion and respect for their rights.
Along with my party, I prefer the latter. Your parties prefer the former, decisively one strongly suspects, because you’ve convinced yourselves that nothing else will satisfy bigots or others beset with existential angst. There’s the basic difference between us.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Lets see these *many* things grasshopper ?
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:33 pm
here’s a nice shot of Peta Credlin (seated in the advisor’s box) giving instructions and waving her finger at Abbott and Morrison. Judi Moylan looks on somewhat glum.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/06/27/3408618/judipeta-20120627154204559465-420×0.jpg
by sprocket_ on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:33 pm
The ‘surge in boats’ had sweet fanny adams to do with the changes 2007 border protection laws as Howard’s draconian measures had no substantial effect on lowering the rates of SEIVs trying to get to Australia. The man was a complete dunce when it came to that issue, as well as a liar.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Wednesday, June 27, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink
Will Ashby/Slipper get a run tomorrow?
doubt it, but the MSM has picked up on Kathy Jackson
by Augustus on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Emm.
One is not really *many*
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:35 pm
If the Libs want Nauru so bad they should be handed it tomorrow – with a 12 month sunset clause.
by PAAPTSEF on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:36 pm
I read your link, carefully. It said no such thing. It merely cited them saying that in some respects, the proposal might be less pernicious than locking them up in chokey here. Nothing declares the solution just or even maintainable.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Did any of the Liberals in parliament today point out that Nauru wasn’t a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention in 2001?
There was a lot of hypocrisy from the conservative side today – all these sudden converts to human rights.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:39 pm
9by extending compassion and respect for their rights.]
Yeah Fran,
Exactly how are you going to do that, assuming you are not going to fly 10 million asylum seekers to Australia? Or are you?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:40 pm
TLM
Iran is a signatory, Abbott can send them there. It would solve Fran’s little problem too.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:43 pm
It is both misleading and an exaggeration to claim that the UNHCR supports the Malaysia solution.
Re-posting….
—————————————————————————————
UNHCR submission to the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee inquiry into Australia’s agreement with Malaysia in relation to asylum seekers:
https://senate.aph.gov.au/submissions/comittees/viewdocument.aspx?id=6b284007-5898-4031-818c-07220d04076b
Assessing something as “workable” and stipulating conditional caveats is not the same as supporting or endorsing something with a great big tick of approval.
by Pegasus on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Labor – the Party you include in your blog name did it, over and and over and over and over again.
Why would the liberals sink their own case?
As I’m sure you are only well aware.
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:45 pm
@Peg/5574
Perhaps you should read the ABC Article before blasting off in your green rocket!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-05-09/unhcr-welcomes-malaysia-refugee-deal/2705796
“Malaysia is not a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention, and the Opposition has accused the Government of hypocrisy after it refused to re-open the Nauru centre on the grounds the Pacific nation had not signed the convention.”
“But UNHCR regional representative, Richard Towle, says Malaysia has agreed to abide by key parts of the convention.”
Once again, blame lies with Coalition Party.
by zoidlord on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:47 pm
hmmm
Oh to be a fly on the wall.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:47 pm
Pegasus,
So you are happy to send AS to Iran?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:49 pm
zoidlord,
Amazing. Around here you are considered a fool if u believe everything as reported in the MSM.
The link and excerpt provided was a submission written by the UNHCR itself.
by Pegasus on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Can’t stomach any more of Fran or Peg tonight – such casual evil
by hairy nose on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Stats on floor crossings in isolation of party processes (fuhrerprinzip vs factional compromise; centralized vs decentralized preselection; balance in party and especially joint coalition rooms) are meaningless. All they tell us is that a couple of swinging Libs in the swinging 60s/70s made a habit of it; but that under Howard even that isolated maverick habit died.
by Graeme on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:50 pm
@Peg/5579
Then read the Oakshott bill:
http://thewall.com.au/topics/78879-oakeshot-bill-replaces-unhcr-signatories-with
Oakeshot Bill replaces “UNHCR signatories” with “Parties to the Bali Process” – so Indonesia, Malaysia are in, whilst Iran and Zimbabwe out
by zoidlord on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Nice description Spocket
by dave on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:51 pm
We need a regularised set of arrangements for resettling those who need it. Australia would be the major player in the region — qualifying displaced persons for resettlement, and moving them to places of safety. In some cases, applicants would quailfy under other immigration programs of course.
These people need not, for example, all be settled in developed states, but with suitable support could be assisted in settling in places where MDG programs led by Australia were active. Funding should come from all parties to the convention.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:52 pm
PTMD,
“Carla @carlajd1
And FYI, her speech is hilarious. And Abbott isn’t laughing. #midwinterball”
I’m red and Mr. Abbott is cross, still gets his goad. Me thinks Mrabbott takes himself a wee too seriously
by Augustus on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Graeme,
Howard crushed all opposition to him and put the small-l Liberals against the garden wall. What we have left is survival of the nastiest.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:53 pm
ABC says that Mal Washer would have crossed the floor and voted for Oakeshott’s bill IF Wilkie hadn’t done a deal with the Government.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Can Fran and Peg cut back on the casual evil please.
by William Bowe on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:53 pm
What have the US and it’s allies gained after 40 years of intervention in the Islamic world
Australia included
__________________________
A vast debt,a mountain of corpses and a huge slice of the world from Libya to Afghanistan in war and revolt..and the USA bleeding to death with debts from wars ,endless wars…and the legacy of 9/11
…and everywhere the Moslem Brotherhood is on the ascendency
,,,and what has been acheived
Pat Buchanan in a brillant article looks at this period of world history and the effects on us all
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/making-the-world-safe-for-islamism/
by deblonay on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Augustus,
I hope someone had their phone on video-record and uploads it to u-tube.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:54 pm
zoidlord,
I have no idea what UR on about.
I simply posted the UNHCR’s submission into the Senate Committee Inquiry into the Malaysia Solution is response to those who continue to claim that the UNHCR have given the MS a great big tick of approval.
by Pegasus on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:55 pm
Deblonay 5589
I would totally agree with you on that one. We should not have touched it with a ten-foot pole.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:56 pm
William,
It’s a battle, but I will give it my best shot and try to curb my evil tendencies
by Pegasus on Jun 27, 2012 at 11:58 pm
peg
I know what the UNHCR said about Malaysia and there is very little chance they will ever sign, given their situation. However, that does not mean engagement by the UNHCR cannot bring the standards up to the that level and improve conditions for all AS there, as has already happens.
Nauru is a signatory, as you know. Do you want AS sent there instead?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:01 am
William asked:
Not sure what you’re asking me to refrain from doing. If I can work out what it is, I’m inclined to comply.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:01 am
Doesn’t do irony well
by grey on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:03 am
Time for me to retire for the night and indulge in casual evil
by Pegasus on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:03 am
Fran I think William was referring to #5580 but that is what I think anyway
by Slav G on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:04 am
“Nauru is a signatory”
Why?, was it because of promised financial aid if the tory’s got in?, it wasn’t a question under a previous Govt.
by Augustus on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:05 am