Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Im so lucky.
The moment every parent dreads. Projectile vomit across our bed, pillows, floor wall and hallway.
by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:05 am
Is Murdoch’s “Australian ” on deathrow
Could we be so lucky ???
Will we see Shanahan and Co down at Centrelink ?
http://www.theage.com.au/business/axe-hangs-over-news-titles-20120627-212u9.html
by deblonay on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:08 am
rummel: I don’t envy you.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:09 am
So here’s the situation:
We have legislation proposed by an independant that has passed the lower house but may be rejected in the Senate by the Greens thereby opposing the combined vote of more than 90% of the electorate.
It’s a FARCE!
R.I.P. Greens.
by Centre on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:10 am
Of to bed, see you all tomorrow.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:10 am
In any organisation, people have an obligation once a decision has been democratically determined to accept the decision and publicly defend it. If they cannot accept the decision (that is that they regard the issue as so fundamentally at odds with their views that they cannot in conscience support the decision), they ought probably to resign. This applies to company boards, school councils, tennis club committees as well as the various decision-making units of a political party. The Parliamentary Paper to which William has referred, reveals that since 1950, just 12% of the cases of crossing the floor have had a decisive impact, and the study concludes that:
The paper notes a spirited defence of the solidarity principle by Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson. The principle of freedom of conscience needs to be viewed against the conflicting obligation of an MP or Senator to the Party which in contemporary politics is the vehicle which secures the passage to Parliament of all but a handful of those who make it.
William, on the subject of your rulings aired earlier, they are obviously of such impeccable quality and impartiality, that you are a logical choice for Speaker, if we ever achieve the goal of a Speaker entirely independent of the political process (i.e. not appointed from among the MPs, and therefore untainted by party affiliation).
by Peter Fuller on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:10 am
rummel
Oh dear, rather you than me. I have done my time with that.
I hope the poor little mite is better asap.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:10 am
Bilbo for Speaker – Vote 1
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:12 am
Centre 5603
_________
Wishful thinking on your part…no real analysis there
more likely R. I. P Gillard
by deblonay on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:12 am
Little joke, Fran.
by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:13 am
rummel,
glad I’m past the PV, now they are wanting to leave home, the 2nd at 16 has decided he wants to make his mark, stresses his mother but gotta let him do it, don’t know what’s worse.
by Augustus on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:13 am
Too much casual evil can make you go blind.
by deflationite on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:14 am
Rummel re sick child
Thank dog for hot water services and washing machines’
How did our forebears cope with out them ?
hard work I guess
by deblonay on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:16 am
The Greens won’t do it.
The Greens will get amendments, but they won’t “kill” it.
by warwick on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:16 am
Augustus.
Who knows why they signed? Promises a few $billion in infrastructure etc might have helped. But Nauru has put pen to paper and it seems to the Greens that is the be-all and end-all.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:16 am
Can the oakshott bill be used by labor for a double dissolution,or is it an independent bill , or can it be counted as a labor bill as the PM endorsed it ?
by Schnappi on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:19 am
Good piccy of Peta and acolytes.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/06/27/3408618/judipeta-20120627154204559465-420×0.jpg
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:19 am
I think the opposition leader should get a chance to prove himself. Give him the AS issue for 12 months.
by PAAPTSEF on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:19 am
Warrick
You’lld hope so, as I stated earlier this evening, if they were intelligent they’d take the oportunity to bury Abbott. Which is what would happen if they showed a bit of pragmatism and voted for the Oakshot bill. Certainly there long term interests are better served with Abbott out of the way
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:21 am
snap
I do not think the ALP will go to a DD with the polls as they are and on an issue where the Fibs have always staked out the higher ground.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:21 am
There = Their
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:22 am
The Greens can declare their position, not support the legislation on principle, but must PASS the bill.
Effectively, the Greens are doing naught to halt the people smuggling business and stopping lives being lost on the high seas.
The Greens – one more sinking boat off oblivion.
by Centre on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:25 am
PTMD,
As ML had asked, where do they go from Malaysia, shit mate where do you go from Nauru, at least from malaysia you will get re-settled, but! Nauru?, there just doesn’t seem to be any thought past that point, all it looks like to me is nothing but hanging onto old Howard policies because they don’t actually have any idea of what to do.
As for Nauru, money in the bank, you’ll do what it takes I guess.
by Augustus on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:25 am
Both Greens and Coalition are opportunists, at least Oakshott has the integrity to help end the debate, and makes Greens and Coalition look opportunistic.
I understand that Greens want AS to be sent to Australia, but at this point in time that’s not going to work (current and future political climate), greens need to look outside the square they live in.
by zoidlord on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:25 am
Based on the Milne press conferance this evening the Greens will not pass any legislation that allows offshore processing.
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:27 am
Btw, if you noticed the Australian reporting incorrectly of Oakshott’s Bill:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/oakeshott-compromise-bill-doomed-to-defeat-in-senate/story-fn9hm1gu-1226410518530
by zoidlord on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:28 am
Wimbledon
______
For the first time since 1938 all male Australian tennis players have been eliminated in the First Round
Is this due to the Carbon Tax >??
by deblonay on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:28 am
The greens live more in a rhomboid than a square.
by deflationite on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:28 am
Zoidlord, since when have the OO reported anything with accuracy ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:29 am
Mick Collins
About the Greens being pragmatic, here is your answer. (Unless Bob Brown has a few wise words in a few ears.) If it aint an ‘ideal’, it aint happening.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:30 am
@Mick/5628
True.
by zoidlord on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:31 am
Puff, unfortunatly I think that the Greens will learn the lesson of the democrats the hard way.
Abbott will love seeing them make this mistake
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:33 am
off to hit the hay
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:34 am
Yeah its getting late too, Off for the remainder of the night!
by zoidlord on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:35 am
Might be the first time in a long time that we havent had a singles player make it past the second round. I think Ch7 ratings are going to take a hit from tonight but at least we can now concentrate on the Tour de France.
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:36 am
@5627
I think that could become a circular argument, but it is good to know where they all are.
by grey on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:36 am
If Milne does not pass the bill in the Senate, it will be an ABUSE of power.
What karma hey?
Labor and the Liberals agreed to the CPRS but it was rejected by the Greens. The Greens got away with it then, but they won’t get away with this now.
In extreme contrast to pricing carbon, every voter in the country has an opinion on boatpeople.
“The Greens”, the Party that did not let them stop the boats!
Oh don’t worry, they’ll go down, Milne will be their last leader before joining the Democrats in the dust bin of history.
R.I.P. Greens
by Centre on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:38 am
davidwh
When I see all the overweight kids at the swimming pool each week when I go, I can understand why.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:38 am
debloney
Must be as stosur lost , so no females either
by Schnappi on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:41 am
Did the daily terror aplogise to swan or the government over the lewis bottled water gaffe
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/news-reporter-turns-newsmaker-20120627-212t7.html
by Schnappi on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:51 am
Schnappi,
After the Grech affair I thought Lewis would do the honorable thing and fall on his sword. The fact that he’s involved in the Slipper affair doesn’t suprise me. I hope this time he gets the sack.
by cud chewer on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:56 am
cud,
In that first line is a word that does not fit.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 12:59 am
snap
Your first line contains a word the DT would not recognise if it ran up and bit it on the ankle.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 1:10 am
Gina backsdown ,but still wants more than 2 seats
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/14056860/rinehart-supports-journalistic-integrity/
by Schnappi on Jun 28, 2012 at 1:13 am
Puff
seen , and appears spelt incorrectly
by Schnappi on Jun 28, 2012 at 1:14 am
Conroy speaks about newspaper ethics, in alboarticle asking abbott libs to cpme clean.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/come-clean-on-slipper-links-labor-tells-abbott-20120627-212yl.html
by Schnappi on Jun 28, 2012 at 1:40 am
snap
Who cares?
Typo, snypo. The apostophe police have gone to bed.
Speaking of which, I assume there were many teachers in the teachers’ teachers rally.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 1:43 am
apostrophe
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 1:45 am
Puff
Spelling police as well
by Schnappi on Jun 28, 2012 at 1:48 am
snap
A pocks on the Greens and the Libs if they don’t pass this Bill.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 1:54 am