Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
womble – Joe Hockey has been everywhere this morning explaining just that
1. The people on boats returned to Indonesia will be OK because they have relatives and friends there who will look after them. No worries, cobber.
2. The boats won’t be leaving for the high seas anyway – the TPVs will stop them taking the trip. No worries again, cobber.
There is no question you can ask which will not have a simple short answer provided by the Oppn.
FranB’s comment that Milne would be a goner in the Greens if she voted for the legislation is interesting. So her personal position may be more important than the lives of vunerable people. I was surprised to read that, Fran
by BH on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:28 am
@lyndalcurtis: The Senate bells are ringing. The migration bill is first up. #asylumdebate
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:28 am
I think we can say that it’s virtually certain Brough has lost his chance for pre-selection. Not a smart thing to become involved in for someone considered to be a possible future leader.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/role-in-peter-slipper-scandal-jeopardises-mal-broughs-bid-for-his-seat/story-fn59niix-1226410579592
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:29 am
The complete universe of potential explanations for this approach to “high quality journalism” (LMAO) appear to be:
Any others?
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:29 am
Laocoon
All of the above
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:30 am
Triton
Prove Milne wrong. Does the law make it possible to send people to Syria or not? That is not a fantasy question. That is a black and white what is and is not in the legislation.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:30 am
smissiva
Yes the hypocrisy burns
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:31 am
Victoria
Would Linda Mottram have been at the Winter Ball?
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:31 am
Muskiekemp said:
(re Milne and the alleged benefits of the sunset clause + Malaysia)
I apologise. Your post was under Tom Hawkins’ post and I failed to note the separation. You’d been posting on the Democrats and the G&ST.
I’m sorry to have attributed the remarks quoted to you.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:32 am
guytaur
Would it make it better if the words were written into the legislation.
“asylum seekers not to be sent to Syria”
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:32 am
No QT in the Senate unless AS bill is done by then.
by triton on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:32 am
Laocoon
No idea. All i know is Latika was so surprised to see a different side to the PM last night.
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:33 am
The complete universe of potential explanations for this approach to “high quality journalism” (LMAO) appear to be:
(A) Laziness
(B) Stupidity
(C) Bias
Any others?]
D) Mr Scott accepted Santo Santoro’s offer.
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:33 am
I notice that the Vatican is not a signatory to the UN Convention on Refugees
http://www.unhcr.org/3b73b0d63.html
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:34 am
guytaur
I don’t know, but I doubt Milne would be wrong about that. I think the qualification is any country that’s a signatory (or in agreement with, or whatever the correct term is) to the Bali process. As far as I know the bill does not refer to Malaysia specifically.
by triton on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:35 am
Senators will love to blow their hot air all day today. Not a single vote will be cross-party lines.
PM should convene non-political group of navy, maritime safety, immigration department, DFAT to look at solutions that move beyond the offshore detention millieu.
get is to be chaired by someone like Peter Cosgrove. Get it to be filmed for a documentary.
by bluegreen on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:35 am
victoria
It would make it better if the legislation had the following. Abiding by the protections of Treaties Australia has signed with the United Nations the UNHCR and UNHRC.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:35 am
Victoria
Yes, I wonder if there will be any breach of Chatham House to get some insight to PM’s speech
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:35 am
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/out-of-here-under-paid-and-over-there/285/
worth a read
by Leroy on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:36 am
@lyndalcurtis: And the Oakeshott Migration bill is introduced into the Senate. #asylumdebate
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:37 am
Laocoon
Fortunately Zimbabwe is so we can send them all there
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:37 am
I would love to see any country try and force Syria to take a group of refugees. I think they have other problems they are dealing with at present. People say really dumb things during these discussions.
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:37 am
poroti
Santo Santoro! The Qld LNP is chock full of the public spirited, working for the common good…
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:38 am
Again, if the Greens don’t support the legislation today in the senate, the Prime Minister should use it as justification to end the ALP’s alliance with them in this parliament.
by spur212 on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:38 am
BH said:
The distinction is moot because her personal position is the party’s position. The party executive is united on this and the party as a whole is united on this. There is no dissent.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:39 am
davidwh
Milne mentioning Syria highlights a major problem with the Bill. Abbott has recognised that and is using it to his political advantage. Thus this new found regard for the Coalition on human rights.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:39 am
‘Balance’? If you’re going to give Milne a platform to tell her fairytales, you need something from the other side as well…
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:39 am
Vic. Was Latikarella tweeting from the ball?
by middle man on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:40 am
I was so pissed off at Mottram letting Morrison get away with his sob story about “an 18 year old boy, condemned to a Malaysian slum” that I rang in and demanded to be put on air.
Got on and asked Mottram “Where would Scott Morrison send this 18 year old boy? Turn his boat back, and IF he got to Indonesia safely, they’re not signatories… or send him to Nauru.”
Mottram said it was “a good point”, but the next caller then came on and told us that Abbott would only send boats back “when it was safe to do so”… which gives the lie to his pissweak “talk macho, act like a wimp” policy of turning boats back, and even if he did it they’re still in Indonesia anyway!, without their $10,000.
The government has offered the opposition just about everything it wants, NOW (or as soon as practicable, anyway): Nauru, a TPV inquiry and so on. Yet, in return, the opposition offers the government nothing.
Yet wankers like Mottram, Hartcher and Grattan (who yesterday showed signs of taking Abbott on, but must have slept on it since) are saying that “the parliament is broken.” Passive voice.
Apparently “compromise” nowadays is defined as “negotiation, as long as one side caves in completely.”
The only thing Hartcher said that I agree with is that the Opposition will not let the government govern.
Unfortunately, for this he seems to blame the government.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:41 am
FB 5874
Sounds like the Greens are the Borg
by smssiva on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:41 am
triton Australia cannot just decide to send people to another country. That country has to be prepared to accept them first. It’s rubbish stuff that distracts from the real issues.
It’s kind of ironic that only two countries have expressed a desire to relieve Australia of our international obligation to these refugees and neither of these is a particularly palatable option.
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:42 am
mm
latika did a few tweets last night. You can see them here
https://mobile.twitter.com/#!/latikambourke
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:44 am
…and as many dead refugees as is possible to further our political agenda
There you go……… just gave your spiel a burst of truth.
by Ian on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:45 am
It might have been better to add further qualification to the bill – some agreement with an assurance of human rights such as that we have with Malaysia.
Chris Evans is using his whole speech to persuade the Senate to do something today. He’s really piling on the pressure.
by triton on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:45 am
$25 M would be peanuts to Murdoch, his shareholders are picking most of it remember, but with him retaining sufficient voting shares, he still holds the reigns. That is until the Brits get finished with him.
$25 M a year to make the government take notice – peanuts in the scheme of things.
Sadly.
by dave on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:45 am
@beneltham: Let’s remind ourselves that the Oakeshott asylum seeker bill is not about saving lives. Nothing in it will deter asylum seekers.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:45 am
No disagreement from me, davidwh.
by triton on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:46 am
The Greens can’t, won’t, and shouldn’t reverse party policy on this.
Unlike Labor, where policy is dictated from above, and you all just leap at the chance to comply with the wishes of your betters, we actually consult our members. The policies reflect the will of the membership.
We made a decision, as a party, to support on-shore processing of refugees.
A regional framework is necessary, but only truly workable and cost-effective in the context of on-shore processing.
The recent deaths are an unfortunate consequence of the failure of both the current Labor government and it’s predecessors to provide a humane, ethical and just solution. That’s the real motivation behind all of this anti-Green hand-wringing – in your heart-of-hearts it’s your limping, decaying Labor Party that has failed.
And you know it.
by badseed on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:47 am
Thanks Vic. Unfortunately/fortunately I dont have a twitter account so I cant see them. I’m definitely not in the ‘early adopter’ category of people…
by middle man on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:47 am
Can someone please tell me what happens to the Malaysia Solution after the first 800 people (about 3 weeks worth) are sent there? How is it meant to work as a deterrent after that?
by McFly Marty on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:48 am
From the OO
So he was warned?
Who warned him?
What was it they warned him of?
When did they warn him?
How much did the people warning him know?
This affair is a cesspool and somewhere swimming around in it is T.Abbott resplendent in his speedos.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:48 am
Finns, I don’t often disagree with you, but I must on this one; because it’s just not fair! His statements about his father’s plight after WW II were, if anything, understated, and strike chords with anyone who does remember early post-war horror battle-zone like E Europe’s migrants’ stories. It’s a cheap political point unworthy of you, Finns, and I’m sure you know it.
I do recall what happened to his father, & other Palestinians in similar circumstances, who lost everything in the 45-8 & ongoing civil wars in what had been, until 1948 – irrespective of what religion they followed – Palestinians’ homelands for millennia; moreover, unlike those whose homelands were over-run by the Soviet Army, there has never since been a time when Palestinians from homelands handed to Israel have had a hope in Hades of getting their lands back.
In addition, for a number of reasons – inc having a (deceased) grandfather who served in the 2nd Q Mounted Infantry (after 01/01/1901 Aust Light Horse) in the Boer War, and my having not long before lived in Toowoomba (see below) – I remember Palestinian refugees’ plight during and after the civil war & declaration of the state of Israel, especially Palestinian Christians who, as well as losing their land homes & possessions, were set upon by Jews, Muslims & others involved in the bloody conflict.
Their plight seemed not, at the time, to be overly different from Cordon Sanitaire residents’ (who hadn’t backed the Nazis); but to Australians who’d served in 2 WWs’ Palestinian campaigns, they were special. Australia, just beginning to ship in multiple crowded boatloads from Europe, would normally not have taken ME refugees, except for the special Oz AIF-Palestinian relationship established esp. during WW II – Kev Rudd’s father served in Palestine (probably one of the reasons he and JoeH were – still appear to be- so close); as did one of my closest friend’s fathers.
WW I’s Light Horse Campaign, led by General Sir Henry Chauvel is treated in his Warwick-born nephew Charles Chauvel’s 40,000 Horsemen; WW II campaigns in Gavin Long’s III: Greece, Crete and Syria in the Australian War Memorial series: Australia in the War of 1939-1945: Series 1 (Army).
Probably as a tribute to Chauvel’s close association with Toowoomba (& T people who donated to his filming etc costs), Downs horse-breeders who contributed so many horses to the Light Horse in the Boer War as well as WW 1, and WW1 & II veterans, the local Art Gallery was recently chosen to host an exhibition of paintings & photographs of ME campaigns, esp in Palestinian.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:48 am
No-one has been able to explain to me yet why someone would pay $10,000 to a people smuggler in the certain knowledge that they would risk their lives making the trip in a sub-standard boat and, if they did not drown at sea, would be taken immediately to Malaysia and put on the end of a very long queue, broke.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:49 am
Just to be clear, I’m not saying that the assurance from Malaysia means human rights are assured. I just meant that the bill might have a better chance of getting through.
by triton on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:49 am
mm
You do not need a twitter account to view her tweets. I dont have a twitter account either. I just following their twitter pages and copy their comments here for our perusal.
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:49 am
Vic. and add to that not going to a cinema in over 15 years and never owned a game console, dvd player etc probably even excludes me from the mass market wave that follow the early adopters.
by middle man on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:49 am
Aguirre
May I summarise that as
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:50 am
FB
Another sooky contemptible copout. You value your idealistic bullshit over people’s lives.
I hope there are some fellow greens about when you fall out of your tinnie – why should anyone else pull you out? You shouldn’t have fallen out, should you?
by muttleymcgee on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:51 am
Okay I will try and refrain from reducing the debate to a name calling exercising but today the Greens need to choose if they are seriously compassionate for if they are then they should support this bill.
Due to the sunset clause this debate will be open for review in 12 months therefore supporting this will hopefully prevent any more drownings.
So far due to the Greens obsession with policy purity, several hundred people have drowned and this is on the Greens hands.
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:51 am
beemer
Nothing to do with the Liberal and National Parties then?
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:52 am