Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Russell Broadbent certainly won’t cross the floor over AS.
I know Russell personally and I’m really ashamed he has been coerced into toeing the party line:
Seems like he lost his integrity when Petro Georgiou left parly.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Victoria
also dont forgot the opinion polls ask who would you vote for now
not in 15/16 months time
by Meguire Bob on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Davidwh – yes, due to the floods and cyclones over the past 3 years you do have a temporary higher than usual call on Govt. funds. Crisis? No, but Newman called on Cossie to help say you do have one – and Cossie didn’t disappoint altho Poss called him for what he is and that’s a total wangker.
Your info on the public housing issue is good and I totally agree with you and it was well said. Everyone takes their turn in the size of public housing needed at each stage of life and the agreements are, from the beginning, that people move on to smaller homes when requested.
by BH on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Like centre i have had to correct my spelling many times
Is it center or centre, my memory is dreadful
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:25 pm
From some broker research today:
by Laocoon on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Fran Barlow,
My 18yo son has just finished reading ‘Inside the Whale and Other Stories’ by Orwell.
He has now moved on to ‘The Bhagavad Gita’.
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:26 pm
bk
We will have to wait till QT to see if the slither still is.
Just a thought is SM going for leader? The whole lose weight to become leader think like BOF did.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:26 pm
My Say @ 595
I don’t want to misattribute if you were quoting. Do the square brackets [ ] give you the quote on your ipad?
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:27 pm
1. Spur, it was for Confidence & Supply. There were agreements with Indie & Greens about Committee representation – normal after an election & Senate change-over when party numbers often change – formal contact with PM & ministers etc.
2. If the “document” is “torn up” after 1 July, PM Gillard no longer has Green support for Confidence and Supply (although “supply” is not an issue until 2013′s budget). It would be her duty to advise the GG of lack of support on Confidence & Supply, and consult with her over whether the Parliament should be dissolved, or a motion of No Confidence tested in the HoR. If she loses. Abbott will become PM.
3. IOW, if the ALP were stupid enough to do what you advocate – that That document needs to be torn up after July 1st – you’d be living under an Abbott government.
You really need to check exactly what “tearing up” guarantees of confidence and supply really mean re who governs & supplies the PM, and who doesn’t.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Bill Leak’s classic cartoon from today. Nails Sloppy beautifully!
http://twitter.com/latikambourke/status/217093127595495426/photo/1
by BK on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:28 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2012/s3532192.htm
full transcript
by Leroy on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:28 pm
davidwh,
Ok, I hadn’t heard that one
by Augustus on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:28 pm
centre@ 482
This is 100% correct. Even if all other negative issues are resolved the Government will not be returned unless this issue is not taken off the front pages of the tabloids.
It is so toxic (even a significant majority of Green voters want to ‘stop the boats’) it is also possible that last week’s tragic incident helped the
in Newspoll.
by CO on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:28 pm
The shit reporters like Lewis and the paper about to dissapear, are reinforcing the reason for a media code of ethics.
by gapnel on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Meguire Bob
That is priceless, isn’t it?
Imagine if the question was: who are you going to vote for in 16 month’s time?
People would tell the pollsters to get stuffed – and rightly so.
Although we would get an idea of the rusted-ons!
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Victoria
Blue is my favourite colour, is that close enough
by Centre on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:31 pm
The Community Cabinet in Qld should send a few oh here into a tizzy.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:31 pm
1934PC 552
“Essential: 56-44, ALP 33, L-NP 49, GRN 10. All unchanged.
According to that, we only need SIX in ONE HUNDRED to change their Vote, piece of cake!.”
Six in 56 actually.
by Haydn on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Phillip Adams@PhillipAdamsABC
Todays Oz.Abbott to close ‘at least 5 major climate change agencies and dozens of p’grams’ in govt.And appoint Ian Plimer Governor General?
by Schnappi on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:32 pm
r info on the public housing issue is good and I totally agree with you and it was well said. Everyone takes their turn in the size of public housing needed at each stage of life and the agreements are, from the beginning, that people move on to smaller homes when requested.
Bh u and i know why your disagreeg with me,
No its a dreadful thing.
I know a lot ofelderly people in tneir family homes, in housing areas.
They have there gardens, they have two dogs, cat, chooks.
Lots of nice furniture.
Put your self in teir poition.
Lets say your house is not your house but a government one,
U have to leave , even your beloved dog be hind that is aged.
Your neighbours, your favouite plants trees,
These people went to these homes as young people. Rared a family its their family home
By the way THEY DO THIS IN COMMUNIST RUSSIA?
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Centre
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Hmm is that not the point of the tax? Labor saving Labor jobs from a labor tax… Don’t panic you know every thing will be ok.
by rummel on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:33 pm
My Say, Center is American
by Centre on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:34 pm
rummel
What is there to panic about?
Interest rates are low
Unemployment stable
Lower taxes
Lower petrol prices
All good
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:35 pm
It is 10 months since the Malaysia Solution was thrown out by the High Court. There has been a political impasse since between the Government and Opposition.
Why has the government not come up with an alternative policy solution in the 10 months since? Is there nothing in the policy barrell or are they totally afraid to move?
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:35 pm
How can u say that when it was not even under my name
You looked at the wro g post POST
SORRY NO BRACKETS BECAUCE IT WAS NEVER SAID BY ME OR EVEN IN A FOLLOWING POST
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:35 pm
bbp
In case you missed the meme, they need either the coalition or Greens to support it
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Abbott should be asked if he supports continuation of the 50 year agreement to supply electricity to this outfit at 10% of the going rate.
by BK on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:36 pm
So u are american
Welcome
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:36 pm
BH I am really quite reasonable when it comes to social issues. I heard a report last week of an 89 year old man who had lived in the same house for 20 years, his wife died in the house a few years ago and was very upset when he received that notice. I think that is one situation where you bend the rules until the man passes away. Thankfully the minister agrees with me and requested details of the person so they could deal with the situation.
The problem with administrators and rules is that they tend not to be flexible when dealing with human lives.
Regarding Costello and the financial report, of course it has a political element but it also has a reality element which has to be dealt with. Basically most QLD’ers want the LNP to get our finances and economy back on track and have given the government a massive majority to deal with it. They will be judged on how they perform over time.
by davidwh on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Should these people not be moving into green jobs that Labor has promised and spent billions of dollars on.
2012/13 is going to be very painfully under the tax and the swan budget. Jobs being destroyed all over the country.
by rummel on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:37 pm
My Say @ 619
You make an extremely good point in that community links can be destroyed. It does have a ‘touch’ of the deportation about it. I wonder also if the houses were looked after less by tenants if they felt no long term interest.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:38 pm
They can be as anti Newman as they wish. He can be replaced with another puppet. What they can’t be is anti Clive.
Even though I live in Qld, and will be hurt along with the rest, I must admit that just watching the cauldron of slime that Qlders voted to hang above the heads start to drip, drip, drip is fascinating.
by Ian on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:39 pm
My say 619 that is why I said each situation has to be taken on it’s merits and handled with due consideration.
by davidwh on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:39 pm
For once the entail gazing of the Media about itself is of public interest and not just gossip when it comes to Fairfax.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:40 pm
I’m not, in fact I’m very relaxed about the current political climate. A long cold winter is comming for labor on the shadow benches.
by rummel on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:40 pm
You’re overegging your hubris again Rummel
by Mick Collins on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:41 pm
@davidwh/554
Yes I do.
The media don’t just post some times, they post all the times.
For example, ones posted exactly at the new day, and exactly at 12 midnight reduces the credibility of the Journalist/media company.
Also, there has been a number of false articles by the media, one which led to the Press Council over information on the NBN.
http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2011/12/23/3397389.htm
by zoidlord on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Victoria @ 626
I know that!! But all policy seems to have stopped dead at the Malaysia solution and as we all know that ain’t going nowhere fast. The Rudd and Gillard governments have dug themselves into a hole and don’t show much inclination to move from the bottom of it.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Heres a scoop for mr bowe
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/06/25/340051_tasmania-news.html
POLITICAL newcomer is set to take on Denison Independent MP Andrew Wilkie in the next federal election after getting the tick of approval from her ALP colleagues yesterday.
Labor is hoping the name Jane Austin will become a household name beyond book lovers as the mental health policy adviser announces her push for pre-selection today.
Ms Austin was overwhelmingly endorsed by the ALP’s left faction in a meeting yesterday and is expected to emerge as the candidate of choice at the party’s state conference in August
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:42 pm
15 months until the Abbott Spring.
by rummel on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Ian.
as a QLD’er it is going to be interesting to watch this mob go about their business.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:42 pm
It may be time for Chris Bowen to move on or be moved on from Immigration. He is politically off side with the PM so probably wouldn’t be missed.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Thanks you Sue. I will read later and post some comments.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:43 pm
I will work in denison and franklin
I noted a news letter . I d dont put labor isdues and achievments in their newsletter
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:44 pm
my say
Interesting
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:45 pm
bbp – Obviously! thanks for the correction. How could I ever forget Colston!!
by BH on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Adam Bandt?
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Ian. I see the QLD Council of Unions is going to do its own review of state finances.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:46 pm
rummel
And isn’t it just as readily discernible that private companies always want the biggest welfare?
The aluminium smelter had to upgrade. What better way to do it than to threaten job losses and receive taxpayer money for their own lax business practices?
I wish you “market knows best” advocates would get a grip on reality.
The ones with their hands out for the lion’s share of tax receipts always has and always, will be those who espouse individual responsibility.
How does it go again.
Privatise profits, socialise debt.
And now we can include, socialise corporate infrastructure upgrades.
Can’t undermine profits, can we?
Or it might just expose corporatists for the psychopathic shonks they are.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 1:46 pm