Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
TLM please tell me you don’t have a blog set up specially to talk about Rudd? OMG!
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:50 pm
knife
Thats what i object to
None of its
But why use violent words
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Posted Thursday, June 28, 2012 at 3:43 pm | Permalink
@William/6774
But it’s totally random comment not in the spirit of current debates.
Thats how i understood it
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:52 pm
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Anyway kids, I’m off to cross-mark some tertiary exams. Hopefully I can find the odd mark – it’s never fun having to fail people on 49/100
Apologies for some heated words earlier. I should not have implied that ALP supporters were ‘without principle’ – that was indeed out of order. Sometimes unfortunately the adversarial nature of my legal training kicks in, and you effectively put yourself in the position of your team / your client, and you want to provide a robust defence / offence.
I think many here could probably identify with this.
I am someone who does understand the legislative process – part of my job is to interpret it. No bill is perfect, and I believe the Greens have demonstrated willingness to work with both sides of the house on a whole variety of issues. On the Carbon tax for example – we supporters really did not like the subsidies to polluters.
Furthermore, despite the tragic events of the past few days, the plight of refugees did not suddenly appear this week, and many, many thousands of people have perished in unfortunate circumstances around the world this year.
Hopefully some intelligent minds meet around a table in the next little while to de-politicise the debate to at least some extent. We do need a regional framework, but in the context of a more humane, transparent system with appropriate levels of oversight. The Oakeshott bill, specifically the provision to expel asylum seekers, is incompatible with a humane, ethical, and transparent approach.
We can, and should, do better.
by badseed on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:53 pm
They do
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:54 pm
So are u him also evan
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Not necessarily. We also have a skilled migration program that might be trimmed of cut. In any event, I don’t accept that Australia alone is facing any kind of extinction event. I do agree that we need to make better use of our resources than we are. Much of the agriculture is quite marginal.
More broadly though, even if Australia were a lot more challenged by the likely flows of asylum seekers …
a) we are economically better placed to accept these flows than less developed countries
b) it would be more equitable, in global terms, for Australia to bear a larger burden of such flows than LDCs, especially if the source countries were above carrying capacity and more fragile than us, had less sutiable infrastructure etc
c) It’s likely that over and above refugees associated with civil conflict there will be refugees associated with climate change events. It’s hard to imagine that Australia could pull up a figurative drawbridge and invite those displaced to accept their fate even if one put aside the ethical objections to acting in that way.
So really, over the next 30-50 years, those in charge really had better work out a way of preparing for the likely upsurges in displaced persons. What I or the Greens or anyone else thinks of that situation is really a secondary question.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:55 pm
davidwh@6800
It exists: http://www.ruddfactor.com/
by Musrum on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:55 pm
No, you’re down to about 15 comments a day.
by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:56 pm
About cats -
Last week I was at the chemist waiting for my drugs and some bloke came in to talk to one of the staff. She wasn’t there, somethiing to d owith a cat and the vet, they said. This charming bloke then announced ‘I hate cats’ and raved on about what he did to cats. I won’t go into details, but it wasn’t pleasant listening. There was stunned silence, me, the staff and the customers just froze. Then a woman said very loudly in a very headmistressy voice ‘Well, don’t come to my place, I’ve got 5 cats’. The raver suddenly found he needed to be somewhere else and left in a hurry, the rest of us clapped. I went home and hugged my kitty. She understood.
by leone on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:56 pm
David he may have google is your friend
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:56 pm
TLM
The caucus wanted Rudd GONE, and Julia was told take the JOB or we will find someone WHO will!.
Stop telling porkies TLM!.
by 1934pc on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:58 pm
MPI:
Shayne Neumann for Labor.
A good finish (?) to the day.
Now, for the Senate.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:59 pm
That says it all really – it is Oakeshott’s Bill – and good luck to him for having done the work. We have a government that is so bereft of policy nous on this issue that they have to depend on a crossbenchers private members bill.
Frankly, what has Bowen done for the past year since the High Court struck down the Malaysia Solution? except complain that the Libs ate his homework.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 28, 2012 at 3:59 pm
My wife reminded me that her year 10 formal date was banned from attending because he and his deliquent mates were caught killing feral cats.
But for his crime, our wedded bliss may have been thwarted.
by shellbell on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Cat owners have a responsibility to keep their animals from killing wildlife. That does not give cat murderers the right to collect neighbourhood cats and kill them. I know a couple of areas in Adeaide where this is happening. This causes extreme distress, especially when elderly people lose their only companions. Posting crap like that just gives people licence to act in such despicable ways. We also have had dog poisonings (ratsak-filled tennis balls are the latest. And what if a kid gets one?) in the southern areas of Adelaide recently. There was also the recent vile act in NSW where someone’s two adolescent dogs were hanged from a beam in his garage. He found them dead. That is a matter of police investigation.
So anyone who is encouraging the death of people’s pets earns my utmost disgust and complete disdain.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:00 pm
OMG just checked out that site.
Talk about cult of personallity, whom ever wrote that blog needs help
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:01 pm
@BBS/6814
And the Libs complain about the Gillard Goverment ate their homework.
by zoidlord on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Quite apart from matters of ethics and the asylum seeker question, I have achieved one thing here today that PB’ers should like. “Ruddstoration” was pushed into the shade.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Driving home I heard Penny Wong’s speech in the Senate on the AS bill. She simply was superb. That woman is an inspiration.
by BK on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:02 pm
@Gay_Alcorn: Gosh, am proud of the #Fairfax board. No seat for Rinehart, Fairfax chairman says http://t.co/JRMhxqMY via @theage
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:03 pm
BK
I did not hear Penny today, but she is a gem
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Mick it was like entering into a comic book world
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Obama Clings to a Narrow Lead
New Poll Shows Him Doing Better Than Romney in Swing States; Both Candidates Face Challenges
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303640804577490964112343348.html
by dave on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:06 pm
@BreakingNews: 4.5 magnitude earthquake hits near the east coast of Honshu, Japan – USGS http://t.co/e8dyeV2y
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:07 pm
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/qld-govt-moves-to-replace-wild-rivers/story-e6frf7kf-1226410914562
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Glad to hear this as long as good safeguards are in place.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/media-public-interest-test-looms-20120628-214g7.html
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:11 pm
I wonder if willliam has concerns about that site
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Q: How can you tell if someone hates cats?
A: Give them five seconds, they’ll effin tell you.
by Captain Obvious on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:12 pm
It has been a marked feature of Indonesian-Australian relations that while the elites have a relatively good relationship, the peoples distrust each other. Australia used to rate very, very low in approval amongst Indonesians.
Apparently Australia has, in the past few years, has zoomed to the second most approved foreign country in Indonesia, (after only Saudi Arabia at No1.
The reason given is the Australian aid to schools program. This is enable hundreds of thousands of Indonesia children get access to schooling.
Congratulations are in order to Mr Howard and Mr Downer who initiated this most successful of foreign aid programs, to Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard for continuing it and for saner heads in the Opposition for stopping Mr Abbott from cutting it from his ‘notional’ savings list when he was trying to figure out how to pay for the Queensland Flood Ley.
This program is a far, far better value-for-money program than a couple of JSF.
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Messers Baillieu, O’Farrell and Newman have started what the Feds will finish: a speed up in our national mass extinction event.
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:14 pm
@BBCWorld: News Corp board approves split http://t.co/OKClL9ql
Its Official. Sayonara to the Australian.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:14 pm
http://www.democrats.org.au/news/index.htm?press_id=6764&display=1
Seems the Democrats are calling for compromise on the Refugee tragedy. what a pity that neither the Greens nor the Fibs can take a leaf out of their book.
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Booo!!!!
We will return.
by bluegreen on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Badseed indeed.
I never fail a 49/100
I accept I’m fallible, take a deep breath and re-mark, then re-mark again and then settle on 50.
by rosemour on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Putting aside my political differences with her, I’ve long believed Penny Wong to be the government representative with the highest reserves of both EQ and IQ. I doubt, as a matter of practice, that she will ever be in the “big chair” but that’s no reflection on her personal acumen.
Greg Combet would be another who always comes off as very effective, quick on his feet and on top of his brief.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Outside @6770. I really hope you are right. JG has have given both Greens and Libs chance to be the ones who compromised. Instead one party shows it has only political interests at heart and the other demonstrates it cannot deliver actual solutions because of an inability to compromise or negotiate. Then JG goes off and solves issue without them. That would be some effort.
by roaldan1000 on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:17 pm
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Or NTB
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:18 pm
victoria
I linked this earlier and it looks like open season on the environment in Queensland has just been declared.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/derm-is-dead-and-doomsayers-are-too-emotional-seeney-20120627-2128c.html#ixzz1z4A8QOqX
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:18 pm
ndeed. I never fail a 49/100 I a
Yes tbat mark has broken many heart especially year 12
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:19 pm
This is the reason I support the money the Government is spending on a freight line in Sydney.
This will drastically reduce horror and tragedy like this.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/driver-waiting-at-lights-crushed-to-death-by-container-truck-20120628-2145q.html
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:22 pm
poroti
The Qld electorate voted for this mob. Will they rue the day?
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Mick yes that too
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:23 pm
roaldan1000
What is your read of the current asylum seeker debate?
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:23 pm
victoria
Probably but unfortunately it will be after the environment is trashed and so too late.
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:25 pm
@guytaur/6842
I prefer Japanese Rail system, it’s awesome, and happy to announce that I will be going there next month
by zoidlord on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:26 pm
What a poisonous little cesspool that must be.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:27 pm
TH
More like cuckoo land!
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 4:28 pm