Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Just passing through on the way to Whyalla to see it fall into the ocean.
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:14 pm
BBP:
Of course they should stand by it. Just as long as they recognise that by standing by it they ensure boats continue to come, and asylum seekers continue to drown. SH-Y has, to her credit, admitted that. They should also admit that by standing up for their long-held principles they move the parliament one step closer to achieving the exact opposite, getting the Coalition proposal passed after the next election. More boats, more drownings, asylum seekers turned back to an Indonesia that won’t accept them etc.
As long as they’re cool with all that, well and good. Kumbaya.
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:14 pm
S
I accept your point. We are in it. But we are not in the middle of it yet because it is open-ended, the pressures are growing and we have no idea when earth’s systems will again reach some sort of equilibrium. Not in our lifetime. Not in our chidrens life time, and, because of the lags effects, almost certainly not in our grandchildrens lifetime either. We are today causing extinctions that will continue for well over a hundred years.
My meaning of ‘facing’ was meant in the sense of having to address it. But I suppose I should have said, ‘We are turning our face away from…’
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:14 pm
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:15 pm
The Greens/Conservative alliance stands condemned tonight for actively allowing for the continuing drowning of children, women and men.
May those who’ve supported this stance feel the weight of their own consciences every night as they lay their heads on their pillows with the thought of waking up to another mass drowning.
Shame on them.
SHAME ON THEM!
by Rex Douglas on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:16 pm
It is absolutely stupid – but they do have a right to say it. Views like that really do show that their rightful place is with the pixies at the bottom of the garden.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:17 pm
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Rome is burning and they’re arguing over the fwarking fiddle. I dispair but living in Queensland what can you do.
by Smaug on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:18 pm
So once again the Greens have sided with Opposition to vote down the Oakeshott Bill, just like did with ETS. How patheticment
by The Finnigans on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:18 pm
The Greens, by way of their intransigent support of their “no offshore processing” have taken themselves out of the legislative equation on AS.
So the reason nothing is happening is purely Abbott’s selfish and disgusting politicking.
by BK on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Its official Oakshott Bill voted down
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:18 pm
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:19 pm
reply to complaint to press council… at least more positive than any complaint to actual newspapers
The Council has received your complaint form in which you raise concerns with reports in the Daily Telegraph and Australian. As I understand the complaint, the principal concern is with the accuracy of the reports, particularly with whether Jose Manuel Barrasco “lectured” or “slapped down” the Prime Minister.
I will write to the newspapers, seeking their response to the matters you have raised. I will then send you their response and ask you to decide what, if any, further action you would like us to take.
Information on the Council’s Statements of Principles about media standards of practice and also a summary of the Council’s processes for dealing with complaints is available on the Council’s website (www.presscouncil.org.au).
I will be in touch again with you when I have heard from the newspaper.
Yours sincerely,
Jack R Herman
Executive Secretary
by Lyne Lady on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:20 pm
I will never vote for the Greens in the Senate EVER again. Enough is enough.
by The Finnigans on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Been out all day and caught a section of Pyne’s rant and Julia’s reply on Sky.
Someone walking past who obviously had no idea what it was all about, said “Oh, politics. What’s the matter with him? Why is he so angry?”
I replied “It’s his job to be angry every day,” which brought laughter, because Pyne really looked stupid, pointing fingers and screaming “liar, liar”.
by lizzie on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:20 pm
@TheFinns/6913
Yup same here, Labor or the highway now.
by zoidlord on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Probyn and Mark Kenny this afternoon showed great admiration for Abbott’s clear, cut through lines and said that the Govt. can’t get over them. He is too good.
Abbott and Morrison on now blaming the Govt. on AS and giving advice(!) on what the Govt is to do now.
Probyn also said that the Rudd forces have been talking to him. I reckon we’ll see lots of stories provided by an ‘unknown Labor source’ in the next week.
The holier than thou Morrison and Abbott are ready to talk to anyone in the Parliament.
by BH on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:22 pm
OPT
Mr Robb made it quite clear the other day that an Abbott Government would ‘rebalance’ develoment v the environment. He said it was, ‘…visceral.’
You need to understand that these guys hate the environment. They think it should just go away and stop bothering them.
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:22 pm
bh
Probyn and Mark Kenny better start worrying about their job. Sky TV is going to be split from Foxtel. News and Entertainment never to meet with Newcorpse again.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:24 pm
The Finnigans@6913
I wonder if these peeps have a chance?
by Musrum on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Exactly. They (or at last SH-Y) seems to believe that everyone who wants to come to Oz must be suffering threats of death. Obviously didn’t watch 4C.
Why couldn’t Greens have offered amendments instead of throwing the whole thing out?
by lizzie on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Where has John Madigan the DLP Senator stood on this issue. He has received no coverage at all – he wasn’t even mentioned by Jon Faine this morning.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Melbourne can keep Alan Jones. Please! After all, NSW relieved Melbourne of Cardinal Pell. Time to return the favour.
I’m sure that somewhere in Melbourne ther’s a deep, dark, secure cellar you lot could keep him in. NSW might even chip in for the padding on the walls and the straight jacket.
by leone on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:25 pm
The ones that are ruled invalid by the High Court of course.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:25 pm
When the next mass drowing event arrives, you wonder what the political pillow talk will be between Mr Abbott, and his partner in death, Ms Milne?
‘Did you hear a splash?’
‘No honey, it must have been the rain on the window.’
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:26 pm
It would be nice, from here on in, if every time a boat capsizes with loss of life a Greens senator is invited for comment. And asked, in particlular, whether it is better that those on that boat would be better off in Malaysia or dead at the bottom of the ocean. I’d be very keen to hear the answer.
If they want to play with people’s lives they need to be answerable for it.
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Lyne Lady – that’s encouraging from the Press Council altho they are probably getting a bit worried about Conroy and what he will propose.
Abbott calling for an election because the Govt. can’t govern but he can.
He’s avoiding saying he will meet with the multi party committee on AS.
by BH on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Finns, I am most surprised that you ever have. I would have thought it would have been the whole Labor ticket for you.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Finns @ 6913
I will never vote for the Greens in the Senate EVER again. Enough is enough.
Me, too (not even for the redoubtable Cate F)
by Brian Mc on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Boerwar
do you have a link for Robb’s rebalancing line?
by bluegreen on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Sorry to keep postign but I have been starved of PB all day.
Heard Rafael Epstein on 774 say that the PM had beentrying all morning to “bludgeon” people into agreeing with the Oakeshott bill.
Whether you agree with it or not, the shouldn’t have used that word.
by lizzie on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Finns
Just hope enough people vote Green next time that vote liberal in the Senate. They are the ones needing punishing plus it helps stop any attempt to return to WorkChoices.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:29 pm
For the ultimate Melbourne experience … Tell him to look to the left just when a tram is coming … hard luck on the tram driver but some might see him as a hero!
by blackburnpseph on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:29 pm
sohar@6887,
You are so right. The Greens appear to be unable to see past the end of their noses with their proposed solution to the Asylum Seeker issue.
I watched Senator Milne give her speech to the Senate today, and all I could think to myself, as she lavished praise on Tony Abbott was, “Lady, change your name to Meg Lees. You’ve been played like a violin by a master manipulator.”
She preferred to believe the word of a man who can’t even lie straight in bed at night, that he would actually implement, given the chance, any of The Greens policies that he told her he agreed with yesterday. Good luck with getting him to keep his word. He had promised $1 Billion to Andrew Wilkie, which he would never have delivered. He would say anything and do anything to win a tactical battle. Then reneg without batting an eyelid.
You just had to listen to the BS coming out of the Coalition Senators today to know that. Nothing about the concessions to The Greens, everything about creating the perception of a parallel universe where John Howard’s solutions worked, and would work again.
Nigel Scullion said, “John Howard turned back the boats, and not one person drowned.”
Also, the Coalition persist in ignoring the reality of the High Court decision. It has been explained elsewhere that the effect of that decisiion is such that a country cannot just pay lip service to signing the Refugee Convention, they must give practical effect to it. Which Nauru is incapable of doing on it’s own. Maybe as part of a regional co-operation framework, but not in the way the Coalition are attempting to suggest it can.
Not only that but the simpering Senator Milne is playing right into Tony Abbott’s hands by agreeing with him that, like his LNP Coalition, it is impossible for her party to compromise on their position and vote for the Oakeshott Bill.
All of them appear sanguine with the fact that their bloody-mindedness will continue to cost human beings their lives. For their is one thing I know as sure as night follows day, and that is that asylum seeker number 20,001 will get on a boat in Indonesia to come to Australia. And not all of them after that will make it here.
But what do The Australian Greens care? They’re on board with the “Shit happens” crew.
by C@tmomma on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:29 pm
bbs
The only policy of Mr Madigan with which I am familiar is his suggested response to AGW: that Australians should buy more Australian-made jumpers.
I am sure that he has others, and that any AGW policy discussion between Mr Madigan and Crocodiles-in-the-Attic would be a Wonder of the Modern World.
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:29 pm
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Make no mistake. The press will attack the PM on this. Not the Greens other than as a sideswipe on the way through.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Abbott is the only one who is being stubborn
by Meguire Bob on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:30 pm
The only way to stop the boats is to change the govt. Doncha just luv him!
by BH on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Abbott lied saying changing government is the only way to stop the boats
by Meguire Bob on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:31 pm
bg
It was in an article by Kelly or Shanahan, but very probably the former, in ‘The Australian’. I posted on the article, which canvassed broadly what an Abbott Government would bring with it. As for when, within the last month… probably within the last fortnight.
Beyond that, can’t help you, sorry. Googling ‘visceral’ with some other terms might work!
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Tony Abbott is, without doubt, still the biggest prick in the known universe.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Bob Carr is also reported to have had a swing at the High Court for rejecting the Malaysia Solution – not a good look Bob, not a good look.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:33 pm
TLBD
That is crystal clear.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:34 pm
I agree Guytaur. The Greens have been grandstanding all along because they know they’ll get away with it. Purely political responses to an issue that urgently required cooperation.
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Speers now saying that the Govt. has to give Nauru a go. How can they go back to TPVs? or am I missing something?
by BH on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:34 pm
C@tmomma
And that is why Abbott is loto and not PM. The indies know him all too well, they’d been around parliament long enough to know what Abbott is really like. They knew that if they sided with him it would be all bets off, an immediate election and all the resources of the Coalition aimed at getting rid of them.
by leone on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Another comment I heard was – if the Greens can’t join with the govt to sort this out, they will find that when Abbott wins the election, they will have lost the ability to negotiate.
by lizzie on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:36 pm
I guess not much happens now. We carry on processing asylum seekers the way we’ve been doing it since last year. I doubt there’ll be political roadkill anywhere in particular. Abboptt gets to rabbit on about unworkable government.
The good news is we can all go back to Ashby.
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:37 pm
guytaur
Don’t worry – those votes will go to Labor, who will do an even better job of staving off WorkChoices than any Green would.
by zoomster on Jun 28, 2012 at 5:38 pm