Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

Monday, June 25, 2012

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.

UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Matters federal:

• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.

• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.

Matters state:

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

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I miss u derstood

Thought some one said the greens obstained

by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:03 pm
I can see a connection between pretty much everything and the economy

As can I but what about the strength of the connection between CC and the economy? I’d say it was a very strong connection. The connection between AS and the economy is IMO very slight. Sloane’s opinion (or Garnaut’s for that matter) on AS is no more valid than those of a butcher or panel beater.

by Tom Hawkins on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:04 pm
BER Mark II – The Australian hasn’t lost its touch with a news beat-up:

Report exposes flaws in set-top roll-out

MORE than 900 set-top boxes installed under the government's $308 million household assistance scheme were completed by unapproved subcontractors.

It then says:

In a review of the administration of the digital televisions switchover program, Auditor General Ian McPhee found installers not yet approved by the Department of Broadband and Communications had been used through every stage of the roll-out beyond the initial pilot in country Victoria.

But he found the scheme - which as at March had installed 85,326 set-top boxes at a cost of $37 million - had established sound governance arrangements and had a low complaint record.

The department had to withhold almost $200,000 from the service contractors it had hired to implement the program, that provides set-top boxes for aged pensioners, people on a disability and war veterans ahead of the digital television switchover.

It concerns 900 box installations out of 85,326 at a cost of $200,000 out of $37,000,000 – MIlanda Rout, the reporter, must be so pleased with the sub-editor’s heading to her article.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/report-exposes-flaws-in-set-top-roll-out/story-fn59niix-1226411433088

by Scarpat on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Poor Tony, he’d been wedged and done like a dinner by the PM and the poor fool hasn’t realised what’s happened yet. He’s too busy swaggering and strutting and back-slapping Morriscum. And even better, the Greens are so busy raving about their ‘principles’ and telling us how much all those refugee supporting groups love them that they have not yet realised they’ve been done over too. This is a long game, the PM has it well in hand. Oakeshott’s bill was just the start. Labor (and many of us, and I’d bet, Oakeshott too) knew ages ago that it would pass the reps but be defeated in the Senate. It’s not over, there’s a lot more coming. Eventually there willl be a solution. We just have to hang on and let that expert group do it’s work.

Abbott’s buddies are already bad-mothing Angus Houston – a sure sign that the PM has come up with an excellent idea that will get good results.

I won’t even start on Ashby/Slipper, Abbott seems to have forgotten all about that. He should swagger while he still can, it won’t be for long.

by leone on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:05 pm
my say

The no vote may have been part of the chess game.

According to Sky it is different when the committee reports.

by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:06 pm
guytaur

@BBCBreaking: UK Chancellor George Osborne will make a statement on #Barclays in House of Commons this afternoon.

I listened to a report about Barclays this afternoon and it is obvious the whole system is bent.Barclays is far from Robinson Crusoe. The cosy lot involved with LIBOR were fuacking around with $500 Trillion dollars worth of financial fairy dust. Fcuk sake the global GDP is “only” about $65 Trillion.

LIBOR

Barclays tried to manipulate a $550tn market for almost half a decade. Internal controls and risk management functions were inadequate. The compliance department failed to do its job. The bank's actions created the risk that the stability of the UK financial system would be threatened.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2012/jun/27/bob-diamond-barclays-libor-scandal

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/libor-how-a-rate-setting-mechanism-in-london-affects-americans/articleshow/14459091.cms

by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Tom, Garnaut does not profess concern about climate change on the basis of his expertise as an economist. He defers to the judgement of climate scientists.

by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Don’t know about anyone else but I’m fed up with seeing SH-Y’s teary stunt in the Senate. But then, I can’t stand the sight of her at any time.

by janice2 on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Eventually there willl be a solution. We just have to hang on and....

Is this the motto of the Gillard reign?

by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:07 pm
At least the PM has offered her policy up for public scrutiny and has the courage to accept the findings no matter.

Over to the greens and Abbott.

by Doyley on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:07 pm
(k Posted Thursday, June 28, 2012 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

Agree with Mod Lib @ 7144.

The move will only be a success politically for Gillard if it leads the Greens agreeing to pass a bill allowing some form of offshore processing outside of Nauru.

If it comes back and says just use Nauru then Gillard is probably finished. If it recommends)

Agreeing with a liberal

God give me strength

Never i still cross tbe road when i see them

by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Dont read mod lib she speaks for abbott

by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Scarpat,

“This incompetent government has wasted many hundreds of thousands of dollars on set-top boxes that they have forced on unwilling pensioners. This is just a foretaste of what SHE will inflict on the poorest Australians with the Great Big New Carbon Tax.”

by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Tom, Garnaut does not profess concern about climate change on the basis of his expertise as an economist. He defers to the judgement of climate scientists.

And Sloan called the experts ‘a joke’. She defers to no one in her endless attack on everything the government does. Hence my objection to the ABC giving her air time. She offers nothing to the debate.

by Son of foro on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Mod lib and the other coalition supporters know the coaltion are in trouble under abbott in the boats situation

and if the greens support the committee recommendations

bye bye coalition under abbott

by Meguire Bob on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Agreeing with a liberal

God give me strength

Never i still cross tbe road when i see them

What are you going to do over the next decade when they are ruling everything?

by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:11 pm
I don’t think a deal on AS will be a win or a loss for the PM.

It will however destroy a point of attack for Rabbott.

by Dee on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:11 pm
MY Say

The Greens merely sided with the devil.

The TV shots of Milne and Morriscum in conversation in a hallway tells it all.

The Greens decided to stand on principle even if that leads to drownings. They are confused handwringers without a clue about how to actually solve a problem.

Speaking in generalisations sprinkled amongst their wish list is the best they can do.

Useful as tits on a bull.

by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Poroti

This is the price paid so far. With this news much worse to come. I hated the Howard Costello team. However at least they never let Australia get to this state like everywhere else. Then even the Aussie Team Labor could not have saved us.
@TheKouk: UK “lesser depression” confIrmed as GDP falls 0.3%.”

by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Did La Sloane explain exactly what was humorous?

by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:13 pm
What are you going to do over the next decade when they are ruling everything?

There you go again making an idiot of yourself.

by Tom Hawkins on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:13 pm
The Greens decided to stand on principle even if that leads to drownings. They are confused handwringers without a clue about how to actually solve a problem.

I was completely astonished this morning when I heard Christine Milne say on NewsRadio that the status quo is preferable to the Oakeshott / Labor bill.

As if ~150 people in one week drowning isn’t cause for concern.

by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Meguire Bob
Posted Thursday, June 28, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink
Mod lib and the other coalition supporters know the coaltion are in trouble under abbott in the boats situation

Keep dreaming.

The Abbott spring is still locked in.

by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:13 pm
@rummel/7223

How can they when they failed so much since High Court Decision. ?

by zoidlord on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:15 pm
forgive the Greens, now they are backing PM Gillard’s brilliant Expert Group move
Finns posted.

Well if so what will they say if they dont like it,

Blue green
that sort of clinches is bet wilkies on the committee

by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:15 pm
There you go again making an idiot of yourself.

Right, so saying that you cross the street when you see someone who votes for the other party is fine, but asking what that person is going to do when the Liberal party is in government is idiotic.

As long as we all know the ground rules!

LOL

by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:15 pm
@BBCWorld: #Turkey moves anti-aircraft guns and missile launchers up to border with #Syria http://t.co/ajrdjlZw

by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Shows
It is the principle of the thing, didn’tcha know?

by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Standing on principles?

The boy stood on the burning deck
Whence all but he had fled;
The flame that lit the battle’s wreck
Shone round him o’er the dead.

Yet beautiful and bright he stood,
As born to rule the storm;
A creature of heroic blood,
A proud, though child-like form.

The flames rolled on–he would not go
Without his Father’s word;
That father, faint in death below,
His voice no longer heard.

He called aloud–’say, Father, say
If yet my task is done?’
He knew not that the chieftain lay
Unconscious of his son.

‘Speak, father!’ once again he cried,
‘If I may yet be gone!’
And but the booming shots replied,
And fast the flames rolled on.

Upon his brow he felt their breath,
And in his waving hair,
And looked from that lone post of death
In still yet brave despair.

And shouted but once more aloud,
‘My father! must I stay?’
While o’er him fast, through sail and shroud,
The wreathing fires made way.

They wrapt the ship in splendour wild,
They caught the flag on high,
And streamed above the gallant child,
Like banners in the sky.

There came a burst of thunder sound–
The boy–oh! where was he?
Ask of the winds that far around
With fragments strewed the sea!–

With mast, and helm, and pennon fair,
That well had borne their part–
But the noblest thing which perished there
Was that young faithful heart.

Thanks, Felicia.

by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:16 pm
The Abbott spring is still locked in. Rummell posted

New where pretending

by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:16 pm
“This incompetent government has wasted many hundreds of thousands of dollars on set-top boxes that they have forced on unwilling pensioners. This is just a foretaste of what SHE will inflict on the poorest Australians with the Great Big New Carbon Tax.”

tlbd,

I believe that Rupert has been trying to contact you. He would like to know whether you would accept to be Chris Mitchell’s replacement.

by Scarpat on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:17 pm
The Abbott spring is still locked in

Ask Peta for the key.

by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:17 pm
The vision splendid. The Northern Food Bowl. May doG preserve Australia from this grandiose folly.

You’re such a bullshite merchant, Boerwar.

I taught the kids of, then worked on the same small staff as some the people doing the sort of groudbreaking research I mentioned – and we do have, in town, the Q Wheat Institute and Lesley Research Centres, with their international linkages, and internationally experienced Dr John Standley recognised in Queen’s birthday honours (OAM)

The South Johnstone Research Station near Innisfail was his first posting and it was here Dr Standley contributed to work on soil fertility and plant nutrition in tropical pastures, "so much of the agricultural work there focused on the work of tropical pastures so that cattle fattening could continue through the year, because one of the disadvantages out west, if you get long dry spells cattle tend to lose weight.

"From there, we did ground breaking work on soil phosphorus…This work eventually in us receiving the first junior international agronomy award of the World Phosphate Institute, I was proud to be able to go to Brussels to put north Queensland on the map".

Queensland agricultural scientist awarded an OAM

A move to the Biloela research station in 1979 saw Dr Standley involved in research projects for soil fertility, plan nutrition, dryland cropping and tilling systems...

In 1982 Dr John Standley and a colleague Philip Moody were awarded the inaugural Junior International Agronomy Award from the Istitut Mondial du Phosphate (World Phosphate Institute).

The final years of the scientist's career was spent in Toowoomba working at the Queensland Wheat Research Institute and the Leslie Research Centre.

Not that an internationally recogised expert would know as much about tropical agronomy, soil fertility and plant nutrition in tropical pastures, or ground breaking work on soil phosphorus, and any of the other areas of expertise mentioned above, as you do, Boerwar, would he!

You’re messing with the wrong Old Gal here, Boerwar. She spent decades doing research and still does her homework!

by OzPol Tragic on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Listen Shifty

This is what you said

What are you going to do over the next decade when they are ruling everything?

and this is what you have now said

but asking what that person is going to do when the Liberal party is in government

You won’t even quote yourself accurately

by Tom Hawkins on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Little Black Duck @7212

Wankers complain that the set top box program costs $800 when the unit can be purchase for $20-$30.

The box is installed, tuned in, aerial adjusted/replaced if necessary and 6 months follow-up (“warranty”).

The $800 loks fair enough to me.

And if you were old, poor, immobile, unknowledgeable about technology, unskilled in connecting / tuning devices, and unsupported by family, then you would really appreciate this.

by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:19 pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18622140#TWEET165887

Thought this was a sleeper

by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Scrapcat,

He called but I told him that he couldn’t afford me. That was just before I told him http://tinyurl.com/7fxhju6

by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:21 pm
NEWSHouston ready to give tough advice
AAP June 28, 2012 7:01PM
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Former defence chief Angus Houston has a track record of delivering unpalatable advice on the subject of asylum seekers.
AS acting defence chief in 2001, he told then defence minister Peter Reith in emphatic terms that no children had been thrown overboard from an asylum-seeker vessel.

This was just before the 2001 federal election, which was dominated by the asylum-seeker issue.

The then coalition government of John Howard had revealed - quite incorrectly it subsequently emerged - how an asylum seeker had thrown a child overboard from a vessel to ensure the passengers were picked up by the Australian navy.

Mr Houston - a former helicopter pilot who was recognised for bravery after a sea rescue conducted in gale-force winds off the NSW coast in 1979 - joined the air force in 1970.

He later commanded the RAAF and became defence chief in 2005.

His intervention in the children overboard scandal did him no harm.

He later served under the coalition government and then Labor, in a period when defence was busier than at any time since the Vietnam war.

Mr Houston won high praise from both sides for his calm and forthright manner and sound advice.

He retired in July 2011 and, after a brief vacation, took on the job of leading planning for the ANZAC centenary celebrations in 2015.

i
He is also chairman of Airservices Australia, the nation's air-traffic manager.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced on Thursday that Mr Houston would lead an expert group to examine asylum-seeker policy.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/houston-ready-to-give-tough-advice/story-e6freuz0-1226411501966

by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Dont get me wrong, i want Libs to support Labor on boats. I am however not jumping on the end of Abbott band wagon. The end of Abbott has been predicted more time then the second coming of Keven Rudd.

Would not be surprised if the Libs get a nice poll bounce out of this dysfunctional week for the government. Libs dont have to support the government, the greens on the other hand signed the wedding papers and have a nice photo to boot and should cut a deal with labor.

by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:22 pm
psyclaw,

You’re new here, aren’t you?

by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:23 pm
my say

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18622140#TWEET165887

Thought this was a sleeper

Just remember that the Turkish jet was shot down over the sea by land based anti aircraft guns. Which means they were definitely and with navigation these days intentionally in Syrian territory.

by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Ask Peta for the key.

TLBD

Pete? i was going to ask Gina.

by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Do you know what I love? I love that the journos who aided all the talk about JG’s choice of clothes and bright jackets are now wearing them

by BH on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:24 pm
...asking what that person is going to do when the Liberal party is in government is idiotic.

Yes. We are in complete agreement on this issue.

by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:24 pm
mod lib i managed it very well while your lttle mate john was around

At a dinner party, which was in fashion arou d that time

Which turned out to lubs
I declared very loud i was labor and proud

Two nasty lubs

Said well tbe next time we see u we will cross the road

And your arragance knows no bound

DONT COUNT YOUR CHICKEN LITTLE YET mod lib
As as it plain to see i detest liberals to the core of my bei g

Id better go

by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:24 pm
guytaur 6984

Stop verbalising it is appalling behaviour.

What drivel you come out with! NOTHING is more apalling or revolting than supporting the loss of human life as your mob of duplicitous clods did today. Today gives real meaning to Keating’s excellent description of the Senate as ‘unrepresentative swill’

The crocodile tears of that great windbag SHY was one of the more disgusting and self indulgent displays I have witnessed. Reading the idealistic rubbish you and your fellow greens produce, and watching Milne imitate Meg Lees gives me hope that the demise of the greens is imminent.

The sooner the better.

by muttleymcgee on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Would not be surprised if the Libs get a nice poll bounce out of this dysfunctional week for the government.

I agree. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Labor’s poll numbers dip a bit since border protection has been in the news so much.

Even though Labor’s position is the best one, it will always lose on this issue even when it is right.

by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:25 pm
rummel,

Gina is a lightweight: ain’t got no seat.

by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:25 pm
psyclaw
The set-top units also have to be accessible for people with disabilities. This costs a lot more than twenty bucks. Also I believe it includes adjusting the aerial if needed.

by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:25 pm
My Say

Ms Gillard should act with bipartisanship and appoint Hanson-Young to assist Bob Carr in solving the Syria-Turkey crisis.

And she could meanwhile send Milne straight to Damascus to sort out the anti government rioters.

Today I wrote this slogan for Greens INC ……”Australian Greens ——-We Are Practical and Pragmatic. We Get the Job Done”.

Then quite suddenly I woke from my dream and my arvo nap on the lounge was over.

by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:26 pm

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