Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Paroti
I know i ve been following it
Re julias jackets
Ive noticed that twoo
And people are dyi ng their hair red
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:27 pm
You might like to check what “verbalising” means.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:27 pm
janice2@7207,
I don’t seem to remember Sarah Hanson-Young shedding a tear for any of the asylum seekers who drowned. Just the ones who survived the boat trip over here and got to meet with the Green Princess.
by C@tmomma on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Puff
Quite right. But who wants to know the facts. Easier for ignoramouses to whinge “I could have done it for $50 each”.
by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Don’t Greens apologists just take the Organic Carrot Cake?
by C@tmomma on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
I seem to remember that Harvey Norman had a whinge but was slapped down when Conroy said if he can do it cheaper then “come on down ” and bid for the work. This was met by Frank’s “crickets” .
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:28 pm
my say,
Hair is now an accessory, isn’t it?
Cheaper than buying shoes and handbags.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:28 pm
muttley
Are you zoomster? No you are not so why do you not let zoomster fight his own battles.
You too have made the same mistake. The comments I was making was on the good tactics by Gillard.
So the points in your post in reply are totally irrelevant.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:29 pm
I don’t see much downside for Labor at all at the moment with “the boats”
In the context that it has been seen to be a “no win” for Labor in any event in times gone by:
Now -
*The government has tried to “do” something and about the issue. The only hole the critics can find in the Malaysian “solution” excludes women and children thereby encouraging boatloads of these to keep coming.
*Abbott and the opposition are seen as total frauds as they really don’t want a “solution” at all. Morrison cynically admitted as much a couple of days ago. Their tears were the monstrous crocodile type while their hypocrisy caring about UN conventions is totally hollow.
*And the Greens? About the best that can be said for them is that they are consistent – and wrong – on this occasion. They have clearly shown, that as a party, they are nowhere near mature enough to cope with compromise as well as principle at the same time.
*Finally, for those on the conservative side who claim an “unholy” alliance between Labor and Greens exists, they might care to think how reliable this “alliance” has been when the Greens virtually destroyed Rudd’s attempts at CC legislation and now have played the Virgin Queen role in relation of on-shore processing.
I think Labor has come out of this well.
Up to now, the conservatives have had all the running on the boats claiming both the moral high (self-righteous indignation for years) and political high ground (we will decide who comes here).
They have been shafted on both.
Of course, whether the media can stomach not blaming the government is yet to be seen.
However, I sense Abbott’s posture suggests the Noalition tag is biting.
You know this is the case when the opposition, yesterday went all gooey and talked about “principle” when they actually do not give a stuff.
by Tricot on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:29 pm
So Scott Morrison has reserved the chair for himself on Lateline tonight to browbeat another ABC journo and get some more free publicity for the reprehensible Coalition line?
by C@tmomma on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:30 pm
TLBD
Actually it was a typo. Verballing was the word meant.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Pusyclaw
I had sev eral yell down the phone at me ( staffers)
Over the last couple if days
That i didnt have a clue
About politics
So is that all there is on their mind
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:30 pm
@LisaMillar: Aussie veterans having a cuppa before the Bomber Command unveiling. Their families excited to watch live on @abcnews24 http://t.co/nPaULN4W
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:31 pm
TLBD @7239
Visiting on and off for about a month.
Cheers
by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:31 pm
MY Say
Whose staffers?
by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Lbd well unless u colour your own
Try 210 dollars for colour and cut
Gee i hope i have not given a se ret away
by my say on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:33 pm
C@tmomma,
Exactly – bawling stunt over a boy who is safe and sound in Sydney.
by janice2 on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:36 pm
psyclaw,
You’ll get to know us by and by. Some of the humour is not to everyone’s taste.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:36 pm
my say,
swmbo cuts my hair, what’s left of it. Velly cheap.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:37 pm
People who think that somehow Abbott is finished due to the events of the last 48 hours about asylum seekers need to remember the following:
1. Abbott hasn’t covered himself in glory with NO, NO, NO. But he is not in government so Gillard will get her share of the blame about the boat arrivals.
2. Even if the AS issue is now toxic for Abbott, the political discourse will not be wall to wall asylum seekers until the election. There will be clear air for Abbott to talk about other more favourable topics.
3. Abbott will not be dumped by the Libs unless the polls narrow to 52-48 LNP at least. There is no guarantee of this.
Abbott isn’t gone yet.
by Scrutineer on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:38 pm
I am outta here.
Have fun everyone.
by guytaur on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:38 pm
I put $5 that Tim $180,000 Flannery gets a run on this new expert pannel.
by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Gee, I’m getting sick of seeing SHY doing her teary bit! Do something about the problem, lady!
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:38 pm
This little black duck
Both of them ? Sacre beaujolais !!
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Chris Bowen with Leigh. Clarke and Dawe in 10 or so.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Garnaut reviewed the scientific evidence and the projections of impact on humanity and the environment. He then assessed the economic impact on Australia and recommended an economic tool to reduce the emissions rate.
Sloan comments on a small number of asylum seekers which have minimal economic impact on Australia. In which case is the input of an economist more appropriate?
by It’s Time on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:39 pm
poroti,
I thought my computer camera was secure!
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Dear dog, will the bullshite never cease? This time (via Scarpat) from the OO
1. the analog -> digital changeover predated the Gillard and Rudd governments and, from memory (not, i hope faulty), even the Howard government
2. I was one of the pensioners offered free assistance – set-top box or antenna replacement & installation – in converting analog to digital TV.
3. there was absolutely NO “forced” – we were given numbers we could contact – or “unwilling pensioners” – if we didn’t ask for the service, that was our choice.
4. All the oldies I know – quite a few in a small city full of retirement Villages and Aged Care facilities – were very grateful for the free service which saved a lot, esp for people who needed antannae/ set-top boxes, installation and lessons on how to use the new systems.
IOW, The Australian LIED, at least TWICE – in the same sentence. And there’s not an excuse for any journo – esp not one from the Australian – not to check the facts before lying in print. And it’s not even a NewsPoll weekend. Or is there a Galaxy or a Nielsen set for this weekend?
Whatever happened to “Tell the truth and shame the devil”?
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Can see why Paris Aristotle was invited onto the Expert Group (from Sep 2011):
[As Julia Gillard cut short her New Zealand trip in part to deal with the asylum seeker crisis, the plan to revive the Malaysian deal won qualified support from Paris Aristotle, a prominent voice on refugee issues who chairs a government advisory body.
Among Mr Aristotle’s conditions for support is that there be a further lift in Australia’s humanitarian refugee intake.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/pms-allpurpose-asylum-plan-20110908-1k001.html#ixzz1z4zJXzu1
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:41 pm
rummel,
You need those odds: JG wants a foreign affairs expert.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Well, if Paris Aristotle says that Asylum Seekers won’t be tortured in Malaysia if sent back there, I guess you will have to believe him.
by C@tmomma on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:42 pm
To all those complaining about no more “pictures of Lily” on Letters and Numbers.
The show that replaces it, Countdown from the UK, features one Rachel Riley.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTlx7Heh0MA
More than adequate.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Leigh is going in hard.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Bowen getting powned
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:43 pm
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Flannery has vast experience with tinnys, he’s perfect.
by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:44 pm
guytaur
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/sunday-mail/dambusters-anzac-legend/story-e6frep2o-1111112291891
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Abbott wins even when he loses on this stuff. He shows himself to be a bit of a mongrel on this stuff, unfair and uncaring and simply playing politics. And that is why the public prefer him on this.
He plays to people’s conscious or subconscious xenophobia. Probably most are subconsciously not too keen on refugees, boat people.. but maybe would never admit it. Abbotts position is always in sync with this. They might hate him, but they want him in on this.
Labor shouldn’t expect to win any votes on this, even when their position actually is good for the xenophobes.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Bowen looked terrible. The worm is turning and the government is starting to flail.
by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Mod Lib and Duck – details.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Dan,
If I may venture. Not quite as cute a face and too prone to having forgot to dress.
Lily dresses absolutely beautifully.
Maybe the two ladies could do a Numbers Challenge.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Thomas Paine – anyone who ever though Labor would win votes on this issue is stupid.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Another terrific performance by Bowen on 7.30 tonight and a surprisingly poor performance by Leigh Sales. In the end he managed to shut up her interruptions and give a very good explanation as to why the government thinks Nauru won’t work and why they won’t set Nauru up by itself.
by Darn on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Darn reckons Bowen was terrific on 7.30.
Mod Lib reckons Bowen was terrible on 7.30.
There’s more agreement in the HoR!
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:50 pm
She is sinking a lot of reds. Maybe she’ll do a 136 shortly.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Italian snags will be wiped off the map on the 1st.
by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:51 pm
glorybe!,
Leigh did a lot of shouting: 10/10. Bowen 2/10 on shouting.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:52 pm
7:30 report, Leigh went through the ALP history (words to the effect of):
“1. You dismantled the Howard government policies and there was a surge in boats
2. You said you were going to send them to East Timor but that fell flat
3. You said you were going to send them to Malaysia and the High Court threw that out
4. Now we have this debacle
Your policies have been a complete failure on this issue”
She forgot the ridiculous freeze on Sri Lankan and Afghani refugee applications until after the 2010 election and the “there is no queue, there is a queue” and “we don’t agree with Nauru as it hasn’t signed the convention” and “we are still going to send people to Malaysia even though they haven’t signed the convention” etc etc etc
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:52 pm
TLBD, get mine cut 2 or 3 times a year. Starts of very neat [so say my girls] then gets feral[love it] Then relent and start again! Loved the 70′s when I didn’t start again
by outside left on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Evening all.
Today proved that you can’t rely on the Greens or the Liberals to act in the national interest. Milne’s (or was it SHY’s?) comment that the status quo is preferable to O’s bill is simply shocking in its lack of care factor for people.
It’s the kind of sentiment I’d expect ABbott to express.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 7:54 pm