Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
This little black duck
John Clark has come a very long way from…….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efrZdbDh5tk
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:16 pm
I had the unfortunate experience of hearing SHY on the ABC this evening and she was not convincing. Not was Brandis while trying to justify turning boats back but criticizing sending people to Malaysia.
by davidwh on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Mind you, WA carries more weight within the Liberal Party than it did in Hasluck’s day. Look at Julie Bishop.
by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:17 pm
William,
Porter has ambition, obviously.
Two questions, I guess:
Would his to-be electorate warm to him?
Does he have sufficient money behind him?
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:17 pm
@7337
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bomber_(novel)
Read this one Gary?, revisionist historians are right up your alley I would have thought Glen.
by grey on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Is there a penalty if I don’t?
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Gary Sparrow
On the other hand “back in the day” W.A. did not have hundreds of billions of dollars worth of resource projects on the go.
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Pity Clarke and Dawes didn’t do one on how the carbon price caused all or
Wimbledon-ers to get beaten.
Maybe next week.
by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:19 pm
If I am provided with two options: The ALP’s rendition to Malaysia and the LNP’s relegation to Nauru there is absolutely no doubt that I support Nauru, without hesitation.
If you want to know what I recommend, it would probably be the tenth time I have said this here, but again: Anyone who seeks asylum within Australian territory should be processed within Australian territory, in a safe and respectful environment, they should have mandatory health and security checks, the former should only take 2 or 3 days (I know because I do them) but the latter might take longer. No child should be detained under any circumstances and without exception. Those individuals who are deemed to meet the requirements of refugees should be granted such status, provided with medicare cards, healthcare cards, housing assistance and a case worker (plus SSI services) …. and some will come to see me!
If a boat leaves any country without authorisation to do so it should go back to its port of origin and get the appropriate authorisation. If it is about to sink, the nearest vessel able to provide assistance is obliged to do so, then it should be taken to the nearest logical port.
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:19 pm
It’s also hard to judge because he was a shining light in a front bench of duds.
You’d need to see him placed among other shining lights in order to determine whether he actually has the goods, or was made to look good by being surrounded by also-rans and incompetents.
Although he is joining the federal Liberal party, which is laden with front bench duds of its own.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Thanks William
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Leigh Sales’ eyes were twitching with anger. In fact, her entire face was hard and unpleasant. Her questioning was simply awful. BB, you’ve described her so well.
by gigi on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:20 pm
I don’t think his electorate’s a problem, TLBD. Did Tony Abbott have “money” behind him? I could perhaps insert a conspiracy theory here about Harold Clough, if I was that way inclined.
by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Correct.
Though would this change following an election in which most if not all seats in Queensland are won by the LNP thus dwarfing the WA Liberal contingent?
That being said Ms Bishop is a stayer and must have some clout after being deputy leader since 2007.
I wonder Mr Bowe if you heard anything about Fiona Nash moving to the Lower House and what you believe her prospects are at a leadership or deputy leadership of the Federal Nationals?
by Gary Sparrow on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:20 pm
OH REALLY!
I’d like to see your business model then, Mr Sausage Maker.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:21 pm
psyclaw – that was the first time in a long time that I haven’t yelled at Ewart. We had stopped watching 7.30 Rpt but thought we’d give it another go with Sales but if she continues to i/v Labor pollies in the same way, we’ll give it a miss again.
Loved the comments on the ‘minimal effect’ the carbon price will have. So good to see different views to the usual negative stuff.
by BH on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:22 pm
poroti,
I’m a big Dawg lover and all that goes with what Clarke has done.
He is a fine comparison with Max Gillies: both have an acute sense of humour; Clarke does dry and Gillies did / does mimic.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Mod Lib
From the Free Dictionary:
“rendition – handing over prisoners to countries where torture is allowed”
Like a true conservo, hyperbowl and truth bending is stock in trade.
by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Whether Bowen was good, bad or indifferent dies not excuse his complete failure in his portfolio. His record:
(a) original act tossed by High Court;
(b) introduces amendments which exclude judicial review of his decisions – an affront to our cherished system thankfully ousted by the Oakeshott amendments;
(c) a bit of reflected glory when the Oakeshott bill passes the HoR
He is a passenger shown up by Jason Clare.
Why Bowen us kept on is anyone’s guess.
by shellbell on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Interesting move though.
Lined up to be top dawg in WA. Then he is up and off ?
Current federal LNP types will all want the best jobs should abbott get up, so why will they give way to him?
Does he just want to *spend more time with his family* or is something else brewing away ?
by dave on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:23 pm
psyclaw:
They are held in detention here
They are beaten by authorities in Malaysia
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:23 pm
shellbell – punishment.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:24 pm
William,
I love conspiracies. Pity they don’t come up nearly as often as stuff-ups.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Maybe she knows something I don’t, but Fiona Nash’s plan to contest Hume looks pretty ballsy to me. Not really sure about the Nationals leadership. If Warren Truss can do it, why not Nash. Hell, why not anybody.
by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Nauru was closed off by the Howard govt to outsiders, even those whose job it was (is?) to check on their emotional well being.
From memory there was a report which came out which found that people detained on Nauru suffered worse mental health outcomes than if they’d simply come to Australian facilities. At least with the Malaysia agreement the UNHCR would’ve been involved.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:26 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rendition_(law)
Extraordinary rendition
Main article: Extraordinary rendition
Human rights groups charge that extraordinary rendition is a violation of Article 3[5] of the United Nations Convention Against Torture (UNCAT), because suspects are taken to countries where torture during interrogation remains common,[6] thus circumventing the protections the captives would enjoy in the United States or other nations who abide by the terms of UNCAT. Its legality remains highly controversial, as the United States outlaws the use of torture, and the U.S. Constitution guarantees due process. Rendered suspects are denied due process because they are arrested without charges, deprived of legal counsel, and illegally transferred to a third world country with the intent and purpose of facilitating torture and other interrogation measures which would be illegal in the USA.
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:26 pm
psyclaw,
I come on PB to relax. Give your ulcer a break and go with the flow: just look what intensity is doing to Sarah Way-Too-Young.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Do we have to?!!
Is Troy Buswell now married or partner of the Greens pollie from Freo?
by BH on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Lined up to take on the premiership at exactly the wrong point in the electoral cycle. I think entering federal politics is a pretty smart move for him, actually.
by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:27 pm
BH
Ditto.
She caught us off guard too. We’re so used to crap and suddenly there’s a bit of balance.
And to make it more of a surprise, the interviewees looked like big end of town guys, one especially, and I thought here we go with the poor-me business perspective.
I’ll have to be a bit more circumspect.
Either “not all those dressed like big enders are big enders”, or “big enders are not all selfish fools” is a proposition I’ll have to get used to.
by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:27 pm
It’s interesting watching the political interviewers, especially on the 7.30 report.
A possible way of interpreting what’s going on is as follows. I’m just advancing the idea because its a bit different from the standard line that the media is just biased against the government. Since they’re always squealing that they’re not biased perhaps we should look for a different explanation.
The way they react with aggression when interviewing government ministers is an indication that the government ministers are smarter than the interviewers and the latter start to flounder badly – that’s what happened to Leigh tonight.
On the other hand, when interviewing opposition spokespeople they can relax because they know they are smarter than the opposition flunkey sitting opposite. The paradoxical result is that the opposition interview is less conflictual than the government one.
by ajm on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:28 pm
I wouldn’t expect it to go through our parliament. Should the Indonesians send the people they caught in their own soveriegn waters, using their own personel, to a Malaysian processing centre there really is not to much Australia can do about it. Is there? Other than finance, under a humanitarian aid program, the regional centre itself.
I really don’t think Australia has any role in developing or implementing Indonesian legislation.
by Ian on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:28 pm
You can add to that his complete failure to lay a glove on the hapless Morrison, who repeatedly takes the position (along with Abbott) of opposing Malaysia because they aren’t a signatory to the Convention, yet continually asserting a willingness to tow boats back to Indonesia, which also isn’t a signatory to the Convention.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:28 pm
Buswell and Carles are no longer an item, and he is famously sleeping on the floor of fellow minister Peter Collier (“Australia’s first Minister for Housing who doesn’t have one”, quipped VexNews).
by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:29 pm
TBLD
Thanks for the advice???!!!
No ulcer here. But I do enjoy debating which is a bit fact based.
by psyclaw on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:29 pm
If Australia managed the centres which held those who were returned from Australia in the deal I wouldn’t have the same objections. In other words, Malaysia allowed Australia to take over a centre, take responsibility for its inhabitants, and manage it completely then it could work, but the inhabitants need to be able to appeal against their situation through Australia’s legal system…so not sure Malaysia would agree to that…in fact I am pretty sure they would NOT agree to that.
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:30 pm
This is not what the coalition is proposing.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Fiona to replace Warren Truss? Nah, give it to the other Warren. Leichhardt hasn’t been given enough prominence.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Situation normal I see. Government criticised for failing to compromise, followed straight up with Government criticised for not being consistent.
Gillard’s done really well out of this. We’ve had the unedifying spectacle of both the Coalition and the Greens bawling their eyes out for two days while refusing to do anything at all about the issue. At the end of all that, Labor, after offering compromises all over the place and getting the usual ‘up yours’ from the usual mendacious prats from both parties, sets straight out to seek a new solution to the issue. While the Coalition and the Greens set off on a PR jaunt to tell everyone how wonderfully pure they’ve been.
Now, Gillard could have paid lip service to the AS issue and got on with putting the blow-torch to the Coalition over Jackson and Ashby. There’s easy pickings there. But she wants this resolved and she’s determined to do that. I don’t mind seeing Lib-bots pointing and giggling at the polls. It’s all they’ve got left seeing as they’re scared witless to talk about anything else apart from Carbon Pricing (a battle they lost months ago). So I don’t want to take their last refuge away from them. I can take the Greens weeping over drownings they could have helped prevent because they think ‘human rights’ is a magic mantra they can chant to make things better, rather than a real thing you have to really work towards.
But when I want things to get done, there’s only one party I can rely on.
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:30 pm
OPT
Unlike you to be rude, OPT, calling a country boy a bullshitter!
The core of my article was some variables I was focussed on which meant that Australia might well have difficulty feeding itself at the end of four generations.
The issue is that expensive food is what creates starvation. People cannot afford to buy the food.
There are a set of variables which were going to make food very much more expensive. The first is that we might have more than triple our population by 2030.
The second is peak phosphorous. We will get clever about how to use it and how to recycle it. But it is running out. It cannot be manufactured. And, as supplies run low, it will cost more. Productivity will decline. This will be a global phenomenum affecting all food commodity exporters. Food will cost a lot, lot more.
I had a go at the myth of the North. This is in the context that lately we have been hearing about the myth that North will be China’s food bowl. Something seems to happen to the brains of my fellow Southerners when they start imagining things about the North. It started with Burke and Wills and, in many ways, has not improved a whole lot since.
Peak phosphorous
1982 is 30 years ago. Concerns about peak phosphorous are, relative to concerns about peak oil, recent. The agricultural scientists and crop scientists I talk to are from CSIRO. They could all be mistaken. They could even be bullshitting. If so, I hope they steer clear of you OPT.
Dr Dana Cordell, is a researcher at the Global Phosphorus Research Institute in Sydney. She thinks 50-100 years will see peak phosphorous. (Industry figures are for longer but there is a deal of concern about the transparency and reliability of those figures).
Like peak oil, peak phosphorous is a flexible notion. As it gets more and more scarce it will become more expensive, which means that there will be more and more of it again. Australia’s soils, including northern soils, are very low in natural phosphorous. (This is one of the reasons, BTW, why some Australian native plants can go extinct: they ae adapted to low phosphorous and when farmers apply phosphate fertilizers…)
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/08/05/2973513.htm
On the general quality of Australia’s tropical soils:
‘Except in the Lake Eyre Basin and adjacent areas to the east, the soils of Northern Australia are quite remarkable in global terms for their low fertility and difficulty of working. Most of them consist chiefly of hard laterite developed during period of climate much more humid than even that of Darwin today. Since there has been no mountain building in the region since the Precambrian and no glaciation since the Carboniferous, the region’s soils have generally been under continuous weathering without renewal for over 250 million years, as against less than ten thousand for most soils in Europe, Asia, North America and New Zealand which have been formed from recent mountain building or glacial scouring of the land.
This immensely long weathering time means that nutrient levels in Northern Australian soils are exceptionally low because practically all soluble minerals have long been weathered out. The major constituents of most soils in Northern Australia are iron and aluminium oxides, both of which are not only very insoluble but also serve to reduce the soil pH and remove phosphorus from the soil as insoluble iron and aluminium phosphates. The insolubility of these metal oxides also serves, under the extremely harsh conditions during the dry season in the north and generally in the south, to create massive sheets which are impossible to plough.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Australia#Soils
And on prospects for large scale, irrigation-based opportunities in Northern Australia.
The Northern Land and Water Taskforce report limited itself to groundwater and there is little doubt that there are opportunities for turkey nest storage and some dams on some rivers. But it is not going to be the vision splendid.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-02-08/report-kills-northern-food-bowl-dream/2572856
“The task force found that irrigated agriculture in the north could be expanded from 20,000ha to 60,000ha – less than the size of some farms in Australia,” he said.
“That answer wasn’t good enough for the Coalition even though the taskforce was set up by the Howard Government, so Tony Abbot resurrected Bill Heffernan’s scheme again last…
(Of course, these guys have a gut hatred for the environment. They will rip up there, rip into it and then bugger off when the soil is shot.)
Even if you round about quadrupled the high end Northern Task force estimate for irrigation land, by way of local irrigation systems, you still only get a quarter of a million hectares. Let’s be generous and you grow 40 tonnes to the hectare per annum, still only gets you around an extra 10 million tonnes of grain in a good year. Rain up that is quite uncertain and good years will be intermittent. AGW might have an even more chaotic impact. So these production figures are fairly heroic.
I won’t bother with links to my other points. I note that AGW will have disruptive and expensive impacts on agricultural systems. These will add to food costs by way of infrastructure, increased risk premium and variable productivity until farmers work out new systems. Valuable lowlands will increasingly be subject to saltwater intrustion from the sea, putting further pressure on our most productive coastal soils.
Many of the current processes of soil degradation in southern Australia will continue, as they are continuing now, placing additional pressures on food prices – either through lost productivity or through remediation.
We have done huge damage in less than two centuries to our southern agricultural land. While there are opportunities at the margins to improve irrigation-based agriculture these are not huge. Our northern soils are, for a range of reasons, not reckoned to be good for agriculture.
My main point is this: in general input costs to Australian farming over the next 120 years are going to be very large as we pass through peak oil and peak phosphorous, learn to cope with AGW consequences and try to feed a population that is going to be two-three times as big as it is now.
Australia farms out of a bag and that bag is going to become more and more expensive. Generally weakly-structured Northern Soils are not going to last for anything like two centuries compared with the more robust, younger southern Australian soils.
I reckon that the people who are talking about the North being a foodbowl for China are like Burke and Wills.
Nardoo, anyone?
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:32 pm
For the first time in a long time, Labor is on the front foot with “the boats”.
It has become increasingly apparent to all but the politically ignorant and just plain ignorant, that most if not all of the simplistic “solutions” offered up by Abbott from towing the boats back to banishment to some hell hole camp will either not work or are no longer available.
For too long Labor has copped all the flak – and Leight S on ABC is continuing in the same way apparently – but now Labor can call the bluff of both the conservatives and the Greens by going along with most of what they think is the way to go.
It is a straight forward job now to bag the conservatives as being happy to see boats come and sink – despite the crocodile tears to the contrary – for crass and cheap political gain while Labor can legitimately play the “Greens are not us” card as they are painted by some.
It was not so long ago (days? weeks) when the pundits were predicting the “end” of the government and JG “gorn”.
Well, the government looks very much in control to me and I don’t think the PM is going anywhere she does not want to for months to come.
And………barely a word about the end of the world with the Carbon Tax………and perhaps some nice juicy bits from the Slipper thing to hit the conservatives as well.
And………no sittings for what, 6 weeks?
And………..all be praised, we think Whyalla will still be there in 3-4 days time.
Yes, indeed, a week is a long time in politics.
by Tricot on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Sure you know a lot more about the WA political cycle etc than many etc.
What about the Federal members of the LNP who have done time in opposition – all who want ministers jobs.
Christian who? is that what they will say?
OK I acknowledge WA’s relative strength economically etc currently, but a vote is still a equal vote – particularly if the WA political cycle looks to be turning against the LNP.
by dave on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Ms Carles seems to be between husbands / lovers. Self-inflicted or not, not a pleasant prospect. Not to mention her odds of being re-elected tom the WA parliament.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Mod Lib
Posted Thursday, June 28, 2012 at 8:30 pm | Permalink
At least with the Malaysia agreement the UNHCR would’ve been involved.
So we are talking policy now which one would you prefer the govt one or the no alitions?
by scoutdog on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Carles is not re-contesting at the next election.
by William Bowe on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:35 pm
My email to the Greens Party:
I am so disappointed in your intransience. I hope you remember how you denied the chance for those in the Malaysian refugee camps the opportunity of a life of freedom each time you see a boat floundering with the resultant loss of lives.
Your party was once a second preference to me, now your gleeful leap into the bed of the LNP has sunk you to the bottom of any card and if there was a section for nil preference at all on the voting sheet your party would merit that.
First your insane destruction of the carbon pricing and now your closeting yourself with racists such as Abbott, Morrison, Abetz, ect is so low your future is sure to be a mirror of the Democrats and I hope it occurs at the next election.
by HaveAchat on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Not passing the Malaysian solution is far better than passing it.
Clear and simple.
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Any chance of peeps reducing the length of their posts?
I would be very happy to be given urls to the various doctoral theses, which I would refuse to expose myself to.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:36 pm
What the hell are you going on about? Offshore processing limits the rights of judicial review because the asylum seekers aren’t in Australia’s migration zone, but now you are saying they should have extra rights to judicial review even though they are in another country?
Clearly you don’t have a clue what you are posting about.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Mod Lib:
The mere prospect of Australia sending asylum seekers to Malaysia focused international attention on the circumstances of AS in that country. Imagine what would eventuate if AS headed for Australia actually did get re-routed there.
My own view is that Malaysia would be forced to clean up its act.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 8:38 pm