Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Garry Sparrow
Howard was a dogwhistling racist. Pure and simple.
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:04 pm
meant to add to 7445
and whatever suburb Fran Barlow lives in.
by Ian on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:05 pm
I think Mr Keane should pay more attention to language: they are not “rhetorical tricks”, which have an honorable place, they are – how shall I put it kindly – lies.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:06 pm
OK, but you need to accept that 90% of the people sent to Nauru ultimately ended up in Australia.
So maybe it acted as a deterrent of sorts, but it didn’t stop people from coming to Australia ahead of people in UNHCR camps in other countries who never had a chance to get on a boat.
Maybe so, but there were other events that discouraged people from getting on boats around that time, including the 350 odd people that drowned on SIEVX.
Well actually you are re-writing history. When the PARLIAMENT, not simply the GOVERNMENT voted to abolish temporary protection visas, the Coalition SUPPORTED IT!!!!!!
The Coalition didn’t even call for divisions, the bill passed on the voices.
But now the Coalition is lecturing us saying how terrible it was for temporary protection visas to be abolished!
But why didn’t the Coalition call for divisions on the bill? Well it is OBVIOUS!
Members of the Coalition SUPPORTED THE GOVERNMENT”S POSITION! Petro Georgiou, Judy Moylan, Russel Broadbent, Mal Washer, Judith Troeth all said they would be supporting the government’s bill, and so Malcolm Turnbull arranged that the Coalition wouldn’t call any divisions because he KNEW it would show that there was clear bipartisan support to abolish TPVs.
But now we have hypocrites like Scott Morrison and Tony Abbott using that to attack the government!
I listed to all of the debate in the House yesterday and about half of the debate in the Senate today and I didn’t hear ONE Labor MP say that solving this issue will be easy and simple!
You are the first person who has argued that it would be simple, but I pointed out that both of your ideas are critically flawed!
What you don’t seem to accept is that the Coalition is flat out refusing to allow the executive government of this country to pursue what it thinks is the best option, when Labor oppositions have done so in the past, even when it has involved bitter internal debates within Labor.
It is obvious that the Coalition is more interested in hurting Labor politically on this issue than supporting ANY bill that would give Labor the legislative powers it needs to pursue what it thinks is the best solution. As each boat comes you can be assured Scott Morrison will be out there blaming it all on Labor.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Then Abbott could say “Bring it on”….evens stevens.
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Nauru?
Bred severe mental illnesses.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:08 pm
WOW, compare the difference in performance between Bowen and Milne over the last two nights on 7.30?
One of the above actually has the final say in our parliamentary system. It’s a farce, it’s got to be fixed
by Centre on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Two boat load sof people have died, but ha we are greate we can come up with a deterant better than that.
What an absolute wank.
by fredn on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:10 pm
The alternative which you support would see teenagers towed back to Indonesia, or sent to Nauru.
AT least in Malaysia the UNHCR would be involved.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Labor would lose any election where border protection / illegal immigration etc was a major issue.
It doesn’t matter that Labor has the best policy on the table, they simply lose by default when this issue is the focus of attention.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor’s 2pp slips a bit over the next month.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:10 pm
rummel,
You might like to have another butchers come 14 August.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:12 pm
There is absolutely zero chance the Oakey bill will be represented in the same form. There will be no DD election. Its a pretty laughable idea that they would.
by Leroy on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:12 pm
The Monkey
will lose in a DD, people aren’t stupid. Abbott has been badly damaged by the issue. Wait and see 
by Centre on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:13 pm
I find it hard to accept that the AS situation is a result of minority government.
The Government guided the legislation through the HOR. The authority of the government was confirmed in that House.
The legislation was held up in the Senate. Unless the government of the day controls the Senate, legislation has every chance of being blocked irrespective of minority government or not.
I am sure Howard had legislation held up in the Senate. Rudd did and from 2007 – 2010 labor held a majority in the HOR.
The Parliament is not broken, it is operating just like any other where the government of the day does not control the Senate.
by Doyley on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:13 pm
Why isn’t Bowen making this point? It would leave Morrison and Abbott stone cold dead.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Yep, just count the bodies if you want proof.
by It’s Time on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Shows:
Not correct. 36% went back, mainly to Afghanistan. Of the other 64%, the vast majority came to Australia.
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Doyley – I wish you could tell that fairly basic political history observation to most of our political journos & commentators.
by Leroy on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Centre:
Labor would lose an election held now. Leroy is right: there will be no DD, and esp not on an issue which so favours the coalition.
by confessions on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:16 pm
You missed the Greens’ announcement this evening about off-shore processing?
by Son of foro on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Howard own gst could not get through the senate despite being a majority government
and the gst was suppose to been a major piece of legislation
He had to go negotiate and go with the democrats gst
otherwise the gst would have been defeated
by Meguire Bob on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Thank you for confirming that sending people to Nauru was waste of money.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Fran 7428
I respect the right of Greens to vote to uphold policies which they took to last election.
Howver, no point coming here with untruths.
You claim Greens have not stopped refugees being brought in from Malaysia. This is not true. Today’s vote stops increase in refugee quota and hence stops many refugees being accepted here.
You claim Greens not responsible for people boarding boats. But today Greens voted for a continuation of approach which gives absolute preference amonst many deserving refugees to those who arrive by boat (over eg those waiting in camps in Somalia and Malaysia). As a result that now continues to be Australian law despite the wishes of the government. Given the desperation of refugees that directly leads to deaths at sea.
by ___cog___ on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:19 pm
And it would have been interesting if howard majority government couldnt get the gst through
would he had called a dd
by Meguire Bob on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Boerwar
Buggered if I know. Not my field of expertise. Anyway a couple of things I came out of the work with was a) An awe that the farmers could produce so much on such shite land and b) I became a fan boi for Terra Preta Oi Oi Oi !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Os-ujelkgw
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_preta
by poroti on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Where?
The Greens had a chance to legalise offshore processing today, but they voted against it.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:19 pm
How much does “the Malaysia solution” cost?
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Please produce the source of this data.
by dave on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:19 pm
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/09/06/what-happened-as-a-result-of-tpvs-and-the-pacific-solution/
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:20 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Indonesians had talked about how Australia might become so exasperated that we would sell Christmas Island.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:20 pm
I respect the people who realize that, like religion zealots, their precepts need to adapt to circumstances.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:22 pm
Was driving home from work and the press conference from TA was being replayed. Well I was yelling and screaming at the radio. Does this man have any policy that is any different to the Howard years? It’s like a broken record, the same shit every day. Nothing new just a rehash of the same policies that aren’t guaranteed to work now. It is like we are going to be transported back in time to 2007, the so called glory years before the GFC. Is he that stupid?
How the hell can the Australian people be so dumb to actually elect this fool? It beggars belief.
by Kirky on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:23 pm
poroti
Interesting stuff. I suppose that a bit of soil carbon sequestration could do the same thing for the MDB?
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Yes, have an election on Coalition strong points, right or wrong.
If it wasn’t already looking like a thrashing for Gillard, going to a DD on this issue would wipe Labor out for a generation.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:24 pm
It depends on how much you care about people drowning at sea, which sending people to Nauru won’t stop, because they will know if they get on a boat and make it to Christmas Island they will go to Nauru and then end up in Australia. That is not a deterrent, it would just be a tremendous waste of money.
That’s how bloody ridiculous your position is.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Why, in the name of fortune, would the government go to a double dissolution!
Boy on the burning bridge stuff.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Is that not imminent anyhow?
LOL
Before you all get angry, you made the bed by keeping Gillard so don’t complain about being about to be put to sleep!
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Shows On
by Son of foro on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Stephen Fry on ABC1 shortly.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:26 pm
The shortest distance between Australia and Indonesia would be West Irian to Australia, I imagine: about 100 km.
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Mod Lib
This is a really simple question.
Why is Nauru a deterrent and xmas Island is not?
by victoria on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:27 pm
And if they go to Malaysia, they hop on a boat and head right on back to Australia…
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:27 pm
And it is time the Australian people realised:-
1) low interest rates
2) low inflation
3) low unemployment
4) good growth
Enough said and you want to piss it up to let Tone the Wrecking Ball in charge. Give me a fcuking break!
by Kirky on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:27 pm
It blows the libs case totally away.
by dave on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:28 pm
boerwar
NOOOOOOO. It wasn’t me. And I ain’t saying who did it. Wild horses couldn’t drag the name out of me.
OK, ’twas Ducky.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Nauru is not Australia.
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Growing support for my Tasmanian solution…
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/06/28/340831_tasmania-news.html
Meanwhile Centre continues to hunt the Greens, as Captain Ahab hunted the white whale, and thinks a DD would see them gone.
by Fargo61 on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Terrorist bees:
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/bees-kill-as-many-britons-as-terrorists-expert-says/story-e6frfku0-1226411556906
by Boerwar on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Let’s put this unique set of circumstances into perspective. A bill was put through the house by an independant to solve a stalemate to save lives.
That bill passed the lower house with the support of a combined vote of more than 90% of the electorate – but was rejected by the Greens.
It’s a fair dinkum disgrace.
The electorate will not accept our democracy being controlled by a loudmouthed protest minority group.
This issue WILL be the end of the Greens!
Wait and see
by Centre on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:29 pm
We are told thats what they really really want.
by dave on Jun 28, 2012 at 9:29 pm