Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
middle man
Here it the Barclays stock chart too…it is very weak indeed
http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON%3ABARC
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:11 pm
TOM HAWKINS!!!! @7683
by grey on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Spoken like a true thug.
by Pegasus on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:12 pm
I agree that this whole debate over the last week will further damage the government, even though the government has the best policy.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:13 pm
SHY doing teary-eyed is like the Noalition bloke yesterday in the Reps:
1. Present a distressing circumstance, then
2. It’s Julia’s fault.
Save me from the hypocrites.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:13 pm
a mate from UK sending me emails they uncovered that were sent between bank divisions supposedly cut off by chinese walls… saying ‘come over i just popped some bollinger” etc… truly wrong behaviour.
by middle man on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:13 pm
middle man – the other big bank story tonight is JPMorgan…reports of its “hedging” (LMAO) losses being rather more than the $2bn
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkzSlQDfwKny2BuOKEpi16beUpHQ?docId=145215ba9020426e99eeed619aba8909
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:14 pm
laocoon. they obviously weren’t doing anything corrupt!
by middle man on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:15 pm
I do not espouse violence I will simply remind these hypocrites they had the chance to end the drownings, to try something that might actually work but oh no, we think the UN should have greater resources to solve the problem.
Please.
by Henry on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Not really. She’s done the right thing by calling an enquiry. She’s the only one at present sincerely looking for a solution. I don’t know if it’s a winner, but it’s the right thing to do.
Beazley couldn’t wait to follow Howard’s lead. He practically offered to. That’s the big difference between him and Abbott, who has crafted a whole LOTO career out of saying no to everything. You can’t craft a narrative around that. Or maybe you can. Could you perhaps tell us what that narrative might be?
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:16 pm
any way. bedtime.
by middle man on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:16 pm
gloryconsequence@7669,
by C@tmomma on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:17 pm
I highly recommend, for the can’t-sleeps, listening to the ABC World Service overnight. It is usually on ABC News Radio from about 2300 hours AEST. It gets repetitive but the reporting from real reporters is worth listening to.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:17 pm
by Pegasus on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:17 pm
I’m not sure Morrison was lying tonight. When he makes statements like “I have always believed in increasing the refugee intake from Asia” and “the Liberal Party has consistently believed in protecting the rights of applicants processed offshore”, I think he truly believes he is telling the truth. He’s an evangelical Christian who believeds that every word in the Bible is God’s word. But the Bible continually contradicts itself. As does Scott.
Now that the journos have worked out that they need to ask “how is towing people back to Indonesia consistent with protecting their rights?”, I’m finding myself tickled by the response. “Towing back boats to Indonesia is the same as their never leaving Indonesia.”
Gorgeous. Spoken like a true champion of humanitarianism. But then our Scott isn’t a humanitarian. He doesnt care about the fate of any person who never gets a chance to impose an obligation on him. It’s all about him. Christian charity, especially when practiced by Protties, is always like that: it’s first and foremost about making sure I get to heaven. Humanitarianism is abour making sure the other oerson doesnt have to kive in hell on earth. According to my morality, humanitarianism thrashes the pants off Christian charity every time.
Sorry to offend anyone by putting it so bluntly, but there it is.
It’a always fun to debate whether it’s better to be stupid and good or evil and clever (good and clever having already been awarded the prize as best). Scott Morrison is undoubtedly evil, but he sure ain’t clever.
As thr old saying goes, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to be Scott Morrison.
by meher baba on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:17 pm
middleman
Here is but one example of the email comments. There are a whole raft of them. The spooky thing about this is the date – 2006. Well before the GFC (there was a lot of talk that LIBOR was
just made upless reliable a barometer than usual during GFC times)http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shocking-details-barclays-epic-lie-bor-fraud-duuuude%E2%80%A6whats-ur-guys-345-3m-fix%E2%80%A6tell-him-get-it
by Laocoon on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Beazley had thoughtful contributions to make to parliament. He wasn’t a gutless, obstructionist Opposition Leader willing to trash political discourse to get what he wanted.
That’s why Howard “got what he wanted”. Beazley respected that he was the Prime Minister. Disagree with him in parliament, state your case, but allow the Government to govern as elected.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Showson.
I will accept you line of reasoning noting that the Libs are in opposition. Now using that reasoning i should be celebrating the first female Liberal Prime Minister giving it her best shot to pass Liberal policys on Boat people.
Now thats a pleasant thought on the current status of the Labor party, and on that note good night.
by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:20 pm
I wonder if Keane’s dear old Mum is typical of many voters.
by CO on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:20 pm
really? you think? and you know how I think. It is a very complex question, I know the areas where I have doubts, I know the areas where I’m sure. I don’t detest coalition supporters. I have very close friendships with many a coalition member, believer, advocate.
There are labor members I detest.
You seem so sure, but yet you are so incredibly far off the mark.
Is perhaps the self loathing yours and you are trying to project?
by WeWantPaul on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Cot@mooma
The unpalatable truth is that so many Laborites like you behave and talk in exactly the same manner as the conservatives you despise.
by Pegasus on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Did you check his rapid eye movements? It wasn’t just discomfort, he was lying.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Why wouldn’t the greens be happy.
Every time the light of life fades from a drowning a/s eyes the shining beacon of zealotry shines a little brighter.
by Ian on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:21 pm
SHY and Hockey can do a great duet like Ray & Barbara – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-magrm3Voo
by The Finnigans on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:21 pm
It’s been an historic victory for Greens purity over human lives today. I’m not surprised you’re so happy.
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Abbott’s strategy is to deny this government legitimacy, he ain’t going to give Gillard an inch.
And as reprehensible as this is, you know what? It’ll just boost the Liberal poll numbers even more.
Who gets blamed for the deadlock in parliament? The government of the day – that’s the ALP.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:21 pm
The best thing for Obama would be if the individual mandate is the ONLY part of the health care reform bill ruled unconstitutional.
If the individual mandate is ruled constitutionally, this could energise the Tea Party wackaloon faction of the Republicans.
The main effect of no mandate would be faster insurance premium increases because fewer people will be insured and they won’t have to pay the 2.5% penalty tax.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:22 pm
CO
My father-in-law and two of my uncles are voting for Abbott at the next election because Gillard’s a woman.
At least Keane’s mum has a semi-rational reason.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:22 pm
TLBD
Possibly Saturday. Possibly Friday arvo. Depends on the time. Offspring works nights so nothing (except my PB posting) happens until midday.
Do I ask William to send Scorps my email, or does Scorps ask William to pass his on to me?
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:22 pm
rummel,
Primary fail.
by This little black duck on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Horsey, dont wallow in self hatred
by The Finnigans on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Boats for Julia Gillard have always been about votes and political positioning. It was one of the things she ran on when she knocked off Rudd. It has always been a political issue for her. For bludgers to be duped into thinking she takes a moral view of the asylum seeker issue shows an astonishing naivety.
If her policies at the moment really are the “right” thing to do, then it would be entirely by accident. Julia Gillard is all about the politics. It is one of the reasons people don’t like her.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:23 pm
BREAKING NEWS: Man Lands On Moon
by gloryconsequence on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Exactly.
I agree.
The government won’t get blamed because it is a deadlock, it will just get blamed because it is the asylum seeker issue.
On some other issues I could see the opposition getting the blame.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Yes Yes we all know by now that you’re voting for Tony.
by Mick Collins on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:24 pm
WWP
And u know how I think..and you know how i feel
by Pegasus on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:26 pm
I finally got my high dudgeon up this morning and called into 702 ABC local radio Sydney on this exact point.
It’s unanswerable, unless you try to argue, “Our non-convention compliant hell hole is better than yours.”
They’re not going to tow boats back to Indonesia. I don’t know why anyone wastes brain cells worrying about it. The Indonesians have said “No” to the naysayer.
Looking forward to a comprehensive denunciation of Abbott’s policy by Bang-Bang, next week. That will put the seal on send boats back.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Irrelevant nonsense.
Why should I accept your irrelevant nonsense as any form of “reasoning”?
There you go again saying that it is a Liberal policy that the currently Liberal Party won’t support.
Ergo, even you think the Liberals are extremists because they won’t support something that you characterise as a Liberal policy.
So you just step in a load of shit by pointing out that Labor has compromised, and the Liberals won’t, but you can’t see how that means the Liberals are a bunch of extremists who aren’t interested in solving this issue.
You’ve done it again, you’ve condemned your own argument.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:27 pm
LSL, it’s not all that important to me how you arrive at the “right” thing to do. It just matters that you get there.
by Aguirre on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:28 pm
The other irony: Since the 2010 election, Julia Gillard has trumpeted her alliance with the Greens as the supposed proof that she’s better at managing a minority government than Rudd would have been.
Who was it who sank Oakeshott’s bill today? The Greens.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Over the next few weeks Labor will be four points behind the Libs and the Green vote will be down by 5 percentage points.
by sohar on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Well Jeez LSL, so you are saying Abbott’s position on “boats” is not about political positioning?
Epic fail.
by Henry on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Ian,
Some pretty damn good wordcraft there. Kudos.
by Jake on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:29 pm
US Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare expected in about 1 hour from now.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Waxing lyrical tonight Aguirre.
ALP blameless in your eyes eh?
by Mod Lib on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Well of course this should kill off once and for all that Labor is in “coalition” with the Greens.
But I suspect Liberal and National MPs and fellow travellers will keep spreading that lie.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:31 pm
Agguire,
U have no idea how to read a person, do u. But then perhaps u do and are deliberately misrepresenting….yes, that would fit.
People who are comfortable with the position they adopt about a contentious issue do not have the need to characterise those who civilly disagree with them as “murderers who have blood on their hands”.
by Pegasus on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:31 pm
CORRECTION: Labor voted for the bill.
Beginner’s mistake.
by ShowsOn on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Tony Abbott is the most mendacious, principle-free opportunist to lead a major political party in living memory. There is nothing he won’t do to become Prime Minister. His position on the Asylum Seeker issue is hypocritical, dishonest, nakedly opportunistic and judged by his side’s own supposed principles, not much short of a disgrace.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Just want to note that the banks on both side of the the atlantic are in the shit for different issues. Is this the start of GFCII
by rummel on Jun 28, 2012 at 11:34 pm