Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mod Lib
And you are doing a lot of laughing tonight over this issue, when just about everyone else is upset that people will still be drowning. You Liberals really are inhuman bahstahds aren’t you?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:39 am
IT always struck me as strange that her way of trying to neutralise the issue was by talking about it a lot. The Coalition talks about industrial relations as little as possible because it is one of their weaknesses, but it is crazy for Labor MPs, let alone a Labor PM, to voluntarily talk a lot about illegal immigration because they just can’t win on the issue no matter what they do.
by ShowsOn on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:39 am
And in even better news for Obama:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/sixty-five-percent-americans-obama-better-suited-handle-171143465.html
Hehe
by Mod Lib on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:40 am
No, but I’m sure there’s a point there somewhere …
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:40 am
@TP/7848
Your forgetting that the greens new leader did the same as well.
Photo Opportunity and all.
And Abbott? Well he’s one of the gate crashers.
Also your arguement about Offshore Processing is silly, Rudd did the same thing in 2007 onwards.
http://www.amnesty.org.au/refugees/comments/8717/
The Rudd Government has been criticised for refusing to abolish the offshore processing of asylum seekers outside of Australian law on remote Christmas Island.
In 2001, Labor agreed with the Howard Government’s move to excise Christmas and Cocos Islands as well as Ashmore and Cartier Reefs from Australia’s migration zone, and thus preventing asylum seekers who reach them from invoking Australia’s refugee protection system.
Short memory and all.
by zoidlord on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:41 am
Obamacare decision:
http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/11pdf/11-393c3a2.pdf
by ShowsOn on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:42 am
This is a problem.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/law/2012/jun/28/supreme-court-ruling-health-care-live
by rishane on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:42 am
Everyone is upset at people drowning at sea.
I am also upset at people suffering in terrible refugee camps all over the world. I have always wanted asylum seekers to be treated humanely, this is not a last minute view when it works to the perceived advantage of my party.
You have misunderstood my posts if you think I am blaming Rudd for deaths at sea. I was merely pointing out how ridiculous Aguirre et al. have been in claiming that the Greens have blood on their hands.
I didn’t see you criticise him, but I take it that you agree that position is ridiculous?
by Mod Lib on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:43 am
Huffington Post Front Page headline
JUSTICE
“OBAMACARE LIVES”
ROBERTS SAVES IT… STANDS AS TAX… 5-4 VOTE… DEVELOPING…
Guardian
10.29am: On the Medicaid expansion: the court has ruled that the government can only offer a carrot in terms of higher funding, but not the stick of taking away all of a state’s Medicaid funding.
States have complained that the expansion costs them money, despite the extra funding they’ll receive. Now they can turn down the expansion, which offers the expansion of coverage to mainly low income people without health insurance.
We’ll need to see some analysis of the consequences of this decision, and which states may decide to snub their noses at the Medicaid expansion.
10.28am: The history of the supreme court is that presidents make appointments and are often disappointed by their subsequent career. Has John Roberts joined the likes of Warren Burger and David Souter?
10.21am: In the detail: the supreme court appears to have also redefined the commerce clause and tightened its use. The clause’s power has been trimmed by the court in recent decision, but this is another attempt to box it in further.
10.23am: There’s a big silver lining here for Obamacare opponents. Here’s the majority opinion on the Medicaid expansion, as written by Roberts:
Nothing in our opinion precludes Congress from offering funds under the ACA to expand the availability of health care, and requiring that states accepting such funds comply with the conditions on their use. What Congress is not free to do is to penalize States that choose not to participate in that new program by taking away their existing Medicaid funding.
That means that states that refuse to accept the federal government’s expansion of Medicaid can’t be penalised by the government – the status quo remains.
That’s actually a tricky decision, and it can be read as a defeat for the Obama administration. It puts the ball back in the court of the states that – for whatever reason – want to reject the Medicaid expansion, which is a key part of the reform’s attempt to expand healthcare coverage.
This blows a hole inside the Affordable Care Act. Hold off popping those champagne corks
Huff Post
10:23
Amy Howe:
The Court does not reach severability issues, having upheld the mandate 5-4.
10:24
Lyle:
To readers of the Roberts opinion, a caution: It is the opinion of the Court through the top of p. 44; the balance is labeled as, and is, Roberts speaking for himself.
10:24
Amy Howe:
Another way to think about Medicaid: the Constitution requires that states have a choice about whether to participate in the expansion of eligibility; if they decide not to, they can continue to receive funds for the rest of the program.
10:24
Tom:
Apologies – you can’t refuse to pay the tax; typo. The only effect of not complying with the mandate is that you pay the tax.
Amy Howe:
The Court holds that the mandate violates the Commerce Clause, but that doesn’t matter b/c there are five votes for the mandate to be constitutional under the taxing power.
10:26
Amy Howe:
The Court holds that the Anti-Injunction Act doesn’t apply because the label “tax” is not controlling.
10:26 Lyle:
Justice Ginsburg makes clear that the vote is 5-4 on sustaining the mandate as a form of tax. Her opinion, for herself and Sotomayor, Breyer and Kagan, joins the key section of Roberts opinion on that point. She would go further and uphold the mandate under the Commerce Clause, which Roberts wouldn’t. Her opinion on Commerce does not control.
10:27 Lyle:
Kennedy is reading from the dissent.
10:28 Lyle:
Justice Ginsburg would uphold Medicaid just as Congress wrote it. That, too, is not controlling.
10:28 Lyle:
In opening his statement in dissent, Kennedy says: “In our view, the entire Act before us is invalid in its entirety.”
10:32
Amy Howe:
In Plain English: The Affordable Care Act, including its individual mandate that virtually all Americans buy health insurance, is constitutional. There were not five votes to uphold it on the ground that Congress could use its power to regulate commerce between the states to require everyone to buy health insurance. However, five Justices agreed that the penalty that someone must pay if he refuses to buy insurance is a kind of tax that Congress can impose using its taxing power. That is all that matters. Because the mandate survives, the Court did not need to decide what other parts of the statute were constitutional, except for a provision that required states to comply with new eligibility requirements for Medicaid or risk losing their funding. On that question, the Court held that the provision is constitutional as long as states would only lose new funds if they didn’t comply with the new requirements, rather than all of their funding.
10:33
Tom:
We’re checking on whether the Court is still reading.
10:34
Amy Howe:
Yes, to answer a common question, the whole ACA is constitutional, so the provision requiring insurers to cover young adults until they are 26 survives as well.
10:35
Lyle:
Kennedy still reading from dissent.
10:35Amy Howe:
The Justices are still reading from their opinions in the courtroom. We will get more info on who is reading what when we can from Lyle at the Court.
10:35
Amy Howe:
The Justices are still reading from their opinions in the courtroom. We will get more info on who is reading what when we can from Lyle at the Court.
10:36
Amy Howe:
The ACA is the acronym for Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act — the health care bill, also known as Obamacare.
10:37
Kali:
The opinion in First American Financial v. Edwards is now on the Court’s website. http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/11pdf/10-7081b2d.pdf
Kali:
Here is the opinion in the health care cases: http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/11pdf/11-393c3a2.pdf
10:38
Lyle:
Kennedy is finished reading from dissent. Ginsburg now reading from her opinion, which helps make the majority but not necessarily in agreement with Chief’s reasoning.
————–
That’s it. Being a good ruling for Obama… but. Later it will make more sense
A few more minutes & I’ll wake up bright as a button!
Good night.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:43 am
So why did you blame Kevin Rudd for adopting government policies that caused people to drown at sea?
by ShowsOn on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:46 am
Well, Democrats could make it an election issue by saying they will accept the increased funding.
It would be a risk for a politician to campaign in a sate saying they don’t want more money for health care.
by ShowsOn on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:47 am
Thanks, TLBD. Nothing there yet, but it could come later.
Off to sleep. Good night.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:48 am
Black Caviar win was better than thought as she was injured during the race.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/turf-thoroughbreds/black-caviar-beat-pain-barrier-in-ascot-win-chiropractor-reveals/story-fnajufri-1226411542179
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:52 am
It’s kind of incredible that the minority against Obamacare all agreed that the ENTIRE legislation was unconstitutional! So if Roberts sided with them, the ENTIRE law would’ve been thrown out!!!
by ShowsOn on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:55 am
@Mod lib/7857
Well you spend alot of time looking at Labor, than your own party or the Greens?
Like the NBN, the AS issue became political because of idiots in Parliament (all 150 of them) think it’s a good idea to score some political points, no matter how much you try and hide from the crocodile tears.
by zoidlord on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:56 am
PPS: The Court ruling has upset Speaker Boehner. That has to be a positive
(From Guardian)
OH, and CNN & Fox news got it WRONG
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/28/cnn-supreme-court-health-care-individual-mandate_n_1633950.html
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:57 am
Mod Lib
Of course the Greens do not have blood on their hands. Generally, there is no blood when some-one drowns.
The rest is between the Coalition, the Greens and whatever scraps of their consciences they can find in the wreckage of their integrity.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 12:58 am
Gary Younge@garyyounge
BREAKING NEWS: Fox News reports that Kenyan-born Supreme Court Justice John Roberts has converted to Islam
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:04 am
snap
My Mum picked it just after BC went over the line. She even said where the injury was, just from how the horse moved coming back after it pulled up. I wish I could bottle and sell my Mum’s knowledge of horses.
PS Mum has picked Abbott as a weird nutter. She knows about people too.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:04 am
To date I have usually voted Labor 1 Greens 2 and occasionally Greens 1 Labor 2.
From now on it will be Labor 1 and the Greens second last (or as close as possible to the bottom of the list just ahead of the Libs and the usual assortment of right-wing crazies)
Their performance today, particularly SHY, was nauseating.
by Jolyon Wagg on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:10 am
Puff
2 out of 2 for Mum, but abbott was easy.
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:10 am
snap
Whaddya mean converted? You cannot be converted if you wazza closet one all along?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:16 am
Snap
Yes, that one was easy.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:18 am
Puff
????????????????
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:19 am
Puff
Sorry, no idea what the above refers ???
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:21 am
Puff
just saw you are referring to justice roberts.
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 1:23 am
With legislation blocked in the upper house, Dennis Shanahan somehow concludes that “the asylum-seeker impasse is a direct result of minority government”.
by William Bowe on Jun 29, 2012 at 2:04 am
Shanahan either is a wriggling Liberal shill or has the IQ of an ANZAC biscuit.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 2:12 am
jeez puff I just ate a Coles anzac biscuits,and was nibbling coles fruit and nut mixture,no idea what their iq is.
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 2:21 am
snap
Never mind the Coles ones, I make traditional recipe ANZAC biscuits. YUM!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 2:50 am
My Mum used to but now stuck with coles or woolies,think Mum used to put in weeties or something like that,coles are mainly bran,by the feel.
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 2:55 am
US Congress just passed Alien Registration Act: all non-citizens resident in USA must register with FBI, to catch spies & “5th columnists”.
by William Bowe on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:21 am
Sorry, did I mention that was from RealTimeWWII?
by William Bowe on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:23 am
You have written, what I have been thinking, while I have been reading all the nonsense written on the issue over the last few days.
by fredn on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:43 am
Were the hokey pokey labor, have to wonder what he would have said.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/lib-pays-tribute-to-hokey-pokey-senator-20120629-215uf.html
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:49 am
This site has convinced me that the Greens have a very solid future, and that Labor will never hold power again in their own right.
by fredn on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:53 am
snap
rolled oats, and not the crushed up ‘quick oats’
you can make them, they are easy.
No margarine either, real butter.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/nsw/2012/04/glad-shutes-anzac-biscuits.html
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 4:05 am
Puff
Thanks,bookmarked that.
Think why my Mum used weeties at times,was everything was rationed during and after the war,she always used up anything available for lots of recipes.
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 4:14 am
Probable only time before the number of Canberra political reports equals the available news.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/news-corp-divides-to-conquer-in-challenging-times-20120628-215dc.html
by fredn on Jun 29, 2012 at 4:23 am
My email to the Greens:
Well done Greens!
So now we know that when it really comes to the crunch a vote for the Greens is a vote for the Liberals. Loved those images of your people and theirs, plotting.
At least now all I have to decide is whether to put you or they at the very bottom of the ticket from now on.
by Just Saying’ on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:12 am
Just Saying
Could be intresting as others would also do so,really a matter to see if widespead.
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:16 am
Yeah the greens are certainly ruthless and heartless like Abbott together they will rule for 1000 glorious years …
by WeWantPaul on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:22 am
Hooray for the wise leader and his ever glorious decisions…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/rupert-murdoch-finds-way-for-papers-to-thrive/story-e6frg996-1226411627986
by joe2 on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:36 am
morning bludgers
see THEIR ABC has been busy overnight finding an ‘expert’ from Darwin ready to trash the Angus Houston Committee. no doubt about them!
by Lyne Lady on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:39 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Overnight rossmore posted this. I feel that many Labor voters will feel the same and it might damage the Greens’s Senate quotas. But in reality this will only happen if the ALP places the Greens low in the “above the line” submission. It might however bring some Greens voters back into the ALP fold.
The next week or so will be very interesting as we see the composition of the committee develop and Abbott’s support or otherwise becomes known.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/impasse-politicians-throw-up-their-hands-20120628-215ay.html
Phil Coorey summed it up OK.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/mps-stand-up-for-their-beliefs-and-fall-down-on-their-duty-to-protect-lives-20120627-212yt.html
Cathy Wilcox puts Abbott’s only plank into perspective.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
David pope on yesterday’s proceedings.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg NAILS the disgraceful Abbott with a ripper!!!
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
by BK on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:44 am
Oops, an apostrophe error!
by BK on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:46 am
BK,
Quick, run! The grandma police are after you …
by fiona on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:50 am
Doing tweets and restricted to 140 characters,have got in the habit of not using any punctuation,only been rubbished by one person so far,and that person is immaterial.
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:56 am
Republicans are going apeshit over the SCOTUS “Obamacare” ruling.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/06/28/former-gop-spokesman-after-supreme-court-obamacare-ruling-is-armed-rebellion-now-justified/
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/28/1104085/-Rep-Mike-Pence-compares-Supreme-Court-ruling-to-9-11
http://www.buzzfeed.com/daves4/people-moving-to-canada-because-of-obamacare
And FoxNews let their rampant bias get in front of their understanding of the decision.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/scarce/cnn-fox-news-blow-health-care-ruling
And from the idiot Rand Paul.
http://crooksandliars.com/nicole-belle/rand-paul-just-because-scotus-says-it
And the prize goes to the Catholic Bishops.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/28/1103966/-Catholic-bishops-very-sad-SCOTUS-upholds-health-care-for-ladies
by BK on Jun 29, 2012 at 6:58 am
BK
Great picture of president harry truman holding up dewey had won,they keep getting egg on their mooshes.
by Schnappi on Jun 29, 2012 at 7:02 am