Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
w
It is the overall left vote rather than Labor per se that is suffering.
Apart from that your argument might have legs if you could demonstrate that the Greens are taking more votes from the Coalition than they are from Labor.
I have no feelings of nostalgia about the centrist Demoracts…at all.
This is true. There are two models: one is where the range of views are resolved within a single party. The other is where the range of views is expressed by several parties. What the current split has demonstrated is that in Australia, the multi-party approach is destructive of the left vote and destructive of the environment.
The Reds amongst the Greens are pulling the Greens too far to the left for ideological reasons.
I am not all that interested in ‘compliance’ most of the time. But this time it will result in more drownings. So I don’t like it at all.
by Boerwar on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Followed by a Tsunami of MOAR ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:11 pm
My advice for those in Whyalla: If you can’t get to hiqh ground, consider heading for HMAS Whyalla. The old bucket should still float.
by smithe on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:12 pm
GG you are assuming the Coalition has policies.
Look the best hope for Labor is that come polling day people will wake up with the sound of Abbott ringing in their ears “send back the votes, send back the votes …” and therefore vote for Labor instead.
by davidwh on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:13 pm
smithe
A corvette stuck in semi-arid short shrubland is one of the true delights of Whyalla, of which there are not many.
by Boerwar on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Boerwar is that the car or the ship?
by davidwh on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:15 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/tony-abbott-set-to-ignore-any-findings-from-the-labor-panel-set-up-to-find-boats-solution/
by lizzie on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Indeed the thing that is missing from the policy debate is whether or not Whyalla should be encouraged to disappear in the first place.
by Boerwar on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Greensborough Growler
Don’t forget that as well as Whyalla being “wiped off the map.” (Didn’t Mahmoud Ahmadinejad use that line ?) Tones has predicted the “death” of Latrobe Valley, Portland, Hunter region ,Illawarra and Kwinana. All felled by the “carbon tax wrecking ball” .
by poroti on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:16 pm
dwh
http://www.google.com.au/search?q=image+hmas+whyalla&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a
by Boerwar on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Perhaps Tony can make use of Saddam’s WMD’s for all that destruction.
by davidwh on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:17 pm
I dunno – I’d be avoiding anything named Whyalla on Sunday, just to be safe. Saint Tony the Prescient, patron saint of fearmongers, may have got his wires crossed, he could have predicted the vanishing of anything/everything named Whyalla.
by leone on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Thanks for the link Boerwar. Hope it still floats then.
by davidwh on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:19 pm
they are economic refugees and will be put on a boat and towed out to sea, that they have no place to return to as their town no longer exists is not a concern of the liberal party.
by castle on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:19 pm
by leone on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:19 pm
lizzie. he is a first class… so and so…
by middle man on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Abbott says he “will not compromise… my way or the highway.”
Perhaps he thinks stubbornness is the sign of strong leadership.
I say it is the sign of a weak leader who cannot cope with changing circumstances and therefore digs in the heels.
by lizzie on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:20 pm
And Port Pirie, why does everyone forget about Port Pirie
by castle on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:20 pm
dwh
Whoa! Whose side are you on here?
by Boerwar on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:20 pm
middle man
I refuse to allow him to be first class anything. He’s not good enough.
by lizzie on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Boerwar currently I have a fence picket well and truely wedged up where the sun can’t shine. I am afraid of sneezing.
by davidwh on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:24 pm
lizzie, ratsak …
The Democrats vanished precisely because they had no enduring principles. Like all unprincipled parties, in the end, they became the vehicle for policies that those supporting them found objectionable — the sale of Telstra (with a pokrbarrell to RW anti-abortion ALP renegade Harradine) and of course, the G&ST. They helped pass legislation criminalising secondary boycotts.
They went from “keeping the bastards honest” to ensuring that they acted like bastards. Yet theier voter base was generally small-l liberal or soft-environmental in character. One suspects that many ALP lefts even gave them a preference. In the end, the bulk of their support base fractured. Some returned to the Liberals under the pressure of Tampa, others moved by the desire for a small-l liberal concern for social justice and environmental issues moved to us and of course, those voting ALP who wanted the old 1970s slogan “a Labor Government with socialist policies” saw in The Greens a vehicle for keeping the ALP from drifting right. The Democrats simply ran out of rationale for existence, notwithstanding that many of them were personally, quite reasonable people.
There will never again be a Democrat-like Party holding the balance of power in this country. We’ve been there and done that. I suspect that we will continue to see roughly the balance we have now for some time to come with a slow but steady drift to the Greens from the ALP.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:24 pm
and Gladstone …
by Fran Barlow on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Gladstone is fine. It’s protected by both the reef and Newman.
by davidwh on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:26 pm
The government should expose Abbott and morrison , Nauru is ready to go at any time claim
and go with the idea similar to turnbull and see if he votes for it
If nothing changes and no one on the coaliton votes for it , all of the coaliton will be seen as frauds in looking for border security
by Meguire Bob on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Journos write that Abbott is a talented (choose your own adjective) LOTO and politician. I thought politics was the art of compromise in which everyone thinks they’ve won.
With Abbott, no one wins.
by lizzie on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:26 pm
by victoria on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:27 pm
BW – comments about Democrats/centrists weren’t in response to you.
Regarding Labor and Greens. In both France and Germany at present the broader left – Centre left, Social Democratic/Socialist Greens and Left are gaining at expense of the Conservatives. They will also have their disagreements. In Greece PASOK is being demolished by other left parties rather than Greens.
In Australia it helps if Greens and Labor have a good relationship but it is impossible to expect agreement on all issues. It doesn’t help for each party to say the other should abandon its policy and agree with the other. Life isn’t like that. When a large % of Aust population (much greater than the Greens votes) supports on-shore processing then expecting Greens to just drop this is a bit unrealistic.
by Wakefield on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Wakefield’s right … 8593 Re ALP and GREENS
___________________________
As he says”all social democratic parties have to deal with with the reality of a range of Green ,Centre and Left Paries” nowadays
There is no better example of this than the recent French elections where cooperation between the Socialist and Green parties and other leftist groups was a fact of life in the second round of voting for the parliament
Indeed after the Presidential election the Greens were given two cabinet seats even before the Assembly election.took place
A number of left parties also co-operated in the polls including the Left-A;lliance a revival of the French Communist Party who got 10% of the vote
In one key seat.Pas de Calais..the Greens dropped out in the second round and their votes went to the Socialists who fought off a strong bid by Marine Le Pen,the National Front leader who just failed by a few hundred votes to gain a seat in the National Assembly..suprising given the high vote(18%) for the NF in the Presidential poll
In Germany the Greens recently emerged as the ,major party of the left in a key state elections and hold the Premiership of the state and now have a coalition with the Social Dems
In the Berlin City Council the Soc Dems are in a coalition with the Greens and the “Left Party:” formed from the old German Communist Party who are doing quite well too in various German polls ,,notably in eastern germany
Elsewhere in Europe this is a fact of life,,,In Scotland for instance the long dominance by the British Labor Party has collapsed and the Scotnats won an absolulte majority in the recent Scottish elections
Why would any Scots vote for an english-dominated party of any kind ?
Some on this site seek every opportunity to attack the Greens .
Yet In the Melb electorate I live in the sitting ALP member only won last time with the essential prefs of the Greens(84% I think ) and that would be true of many other caucus members and of many seats that posters here live in
Ask your local ALP member if he/she wants to pick a fight with the local Greens
The DLP-like-Labor Right hate some aspects of Greens policy and vent their spleen on them
Ask the Tas ALP if they will end their coalition with the Greens there
The answers obvious
by deblonay on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:31 pm
What was Mesma thinking when she went for black lace see through number?
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/gallery/gallery-e6frewxi-1226410533423?page=5
by joe2 on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:32 pm
The panel chaired by Huston may well not lead to the Liberals backing a workable solution but it WILL underscore the lies and flush out the crap that is Abbotts position. It will also lead to significant rumblings from those few Libs with a conscience. Abbott is very much a dead man walking in my opinion (politically that is, I’m sure he’ll live to a ripe old age Fran.)
by Smaug on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:33 pm
joe2
And she had the famous Mesma eyes andd school prefect pouted lips on full display.
by BK on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:34 pm
LSL,
I have no problem admitting my problem with the Greens is mainly political. I don’t think there is any magic bullet to issues of asylum seekers. Personally I have no problem with people of any race or creed making a new life for themselves here and if they arrived by boat having fled tyranny then they should be taken in. But I also concede others hold differing opinions on this. I also concede, and share to some extent, that people of good faith can question the mechanics of how we deal with refugees such as how many can we accommodate, how do we best use our resources for the greatest benefit, are those who come via Indonesian people smugglers really as desperate for asylum as is made out, and is the price in drownings something we can justify?
These are difficult and intractable problems. People of good faith can disagree over these issues. No one has a mortgage over the best answer.
That being so, the issue is unquestionably political. It used to be that our politicians did not politicise these issues and worked in a spirit of bi-partisanship to seek a solution that did not inflame racist sentiments. Now it could be argued that Gerry Hand may have started the process of politicising the issue with the introduction of mandatory detention, although I’d call that a stretch (I don’t remember if the Coalition supported or opposed at the time).
The real death of bi-partisanship over these issues is pretty obviously Howard’s deliberate strategy of vilification in 2001. Since that moment the issue have been overtly political, and it will remain so until both sides believe there is more political pain than gain to be had. Abbott clearly doesn’t feel that he will suffer any pain whatsoever, and that’s the complete and final explanation for why he will not budge an inch.
With that being the case the Greens are in a position where their intransigence doesn’t just give a political victory to Abbott, but potentially fatally wounds the government. The consequences of that are profound and go to far more than just the matter of dealing with unauthorised boat arrivals. The Greens seem to have made a calculation that they can block the winding back of all of the important legislation enacted this term as well as any nasties Abbott might think up once he gets the keys to the Lodge. Some might call that high risk, personally I see it more as a fools hope. Alternatively the Greens may simply naively think they can maintain their purity on this issue and it has no wider political consequence. Either way they are aiding and abetting Tony Abbott becoming Prime Minister. A result I’m sure the vast majority of Greens supporters find repugnant.
As I said, there is no perfect answer to this. The government’s position is obviously driven largely by a desire to end their political pain more than any other reason, but I think it would be churlish to deny that many if not most members of the ALP have had to make some painful reassessments of their position on this matter in light of the drownings. They have taken a big bite out of a shit sandwich to get to where they are now. Also despite the obvious political nature of the ALP’s position it is at least supportable as that nominated by the department. There are reasonably arguable reasons to justify their position, and justify not using Nauru only.
This was an occasion for the Greens to bend. By sticking to their ‘principles’ in support of a politically unsustainable position they have achieved nothing positive but to salve their own consciences. The consequences of their inability to find a way of giving Gillard a win will be to still end up with offshore processing eventually, and very likely see an Abbott government destroy most of the things they claim to cherish.
Whilst the boats were just coming in reasonably manageable numbers I was confident Abbott’s policy idiocy would collapse in on itself and his obstruction of Malaysia would be seen as a negative. However with the recent increase in numbers and subsequent deaths the present situation has become untenable. The boat capsizing on Wednesday brought it to a head and ensured either Gillard or Abbott would have a major political win. The other would be severely politically damaged. The Greens had a choice to make and I would argue that on any reasonable reading of the total situation they have chosen to sacrifice an enormous amount to maintain a policy purity that events have overtaken and kicked to the kerb. I’m not a fan of such pyrrhic victories.
by ratsak on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:34 pm
deblonay
I love the taunt thrown at the Tories in Scotland. There are more pandas in Scotland than there are Tory MP’s
by poroti on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:34 pm
I’ve just remembered – in the car this morning I briefly heard Tim Wilson on 774 pushing the fight against the “carbon tax” and finishing with an invitation to people to join the IPA in the fight. Gave out the web address and while Faine tried to talk over him and say “you can’t do that”, he got it out.
Baaaad ABC. Not Faine’s fault. Apparently Mark Scott believes in a “broad cross-section of views”.
by lizzie on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:35 pm
joe2
Not sure if see through. It seems to be skin toned fabric underneath
by victoria on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:36 pm
They’re too obsessed with the polls to bother caring about such things like people’s welfare or the political climate. The only way they’ll call him a failure is if the polls change, unfortunately.
by rishane on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:37 pm
cc
And the PM never said there would no carbon trading scheme either, which is what we have. But she is verballed and called a liar by that heap of trash who leads the coalition.
So join SHY,and cry me a river.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Yes … in the election 6 weeks ago the Greek Greens missed out by about 4000 votes on getting party recognition. (You need 3%).
In the June 17 election their vote collapsed to about 1% — most all of them went straight to SYRIZA (Greek for “Coalition of the Radical Left”) which increased its share of the vote to about 28% — about 4 times what it was before the previous election. PASOK — the closest equivalent of the ALP, declined further.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:37 pm
smaug
Whilst it apoears that Abbott has had a victory of sorts so far. Depending on the advice of the expert panel and the response Abbott, coalition and the Greens, this has a while to play out yet.
by victoria on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:38 pm
wakefield
I agree that things are different in Europe. I suggest that if left parties were in when the GFC hit, they were bundled out. If right parties were in when the GFC, they were bundled out.
I have to say that I feel a deal of anger with what is happening in Greece and therefore tend not to accept what is happening in Greece as an argument for doing anything at all.
IMHO, it is actualy not fundamentally about whether Labor and Greens get along. It is about whether the left vote is more effective if it is split into two parties or one party. Going on results in Australia, you would have to say that a left vote united in one party is going to be more effective.
I am not expecting the Greens to drop anything. I accept that they have their preferred policy.
But, in the current circumstances their preferred policy was not available to them. Therefore they had to try to choose the lesser of two evils.
So they chose mass drownings and supporting Mr Abbott.
In my judgement both of these are the greater of two evils.
by Boerwar on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Ratsak, are you coming to lunch on Sunday?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:40 pm
The Oakeshott Bill is not the end of the debate. Gillard has some positive – people can see that Parliament is difficult. Gillard should be prepared to do this more often – avoiding putting up the pokies Bill being an obvious case.
If there can be some some Labor Green and other dialogue there might be a positive outcome over the next few weeks. Getting Heuston and some Navy types involved is also useful. LNP misuse of Navy is an issue.
by Wakefield on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:41 pm
I see Mr Abbott survived another intense round of questioning from our fearlessly independent fourth estate today. Wow, that fella has some backbone, bravely standing there and taking questions on any and every subject thrown at him by our courageous journalists, intent on using every last ounce of their integrity to hold Mr Abbott to account for everything that he says.
It was fascinating viewing, but in the end you have to say that Mr Abbott, after what seemed like hours of to and fro, and after checking once, twice, three times that there were no further questions, walked away with his head held high.
Don’t worry, journalists, you have nothing to be ashamed of. Honestly. You keep trying and trying to hold Mr Abbott to account, you keep analysing every word he says for contradiction, hypocrisy or even the slightest hint of cant, but there just isn’t anything there, the man is as pure as the driven snow. Sleep true tonight, press pack, you’ve given your best for us, sacrified yourselves on the rocks of political truth, and just have to admit you’ve come up against a better man.
Australia is the better place for all of them, and I for one am today proud to call myself Australian.
by Son of foro on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:41 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Labour picked up a 3% swing in the most recent Scottish local elections.
by kakuru on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:43 pm
i wrote a post a few days/week ago saying that the Greens and ALP need to start educating their voters on how informal alliances work. They aren’t tidy, congenial affairs.
Australians are used to tidy alliances like the conservative Coalition. It’s one of a myriad of reasons the Dems didn’t last and why other parties such as One Nation, DLP, Katter’s etc never take root.
however the Greens appear to have built a foundation and are the first minor party to openly align itself with the left. The ALP and the Greens need to get this sorted for the benefit of BOTH of them. The alternative is a continual leaking of votes to the “clear and decisive” conservative parties.
by middle man on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:44 pm
SoF
You mean to say that the journos have been beating Abbott with dry lettuce leaves?! Well I’ll be….!!!!!
by victoria on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:46 pm
fb
Little wonder, then, that Greece’s environment is in such a mess.
http://www.chem.uoa.gr/scinews/env01/Env_problems2000-2010.htm
by Boerwar on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:46 pm
I would stay away from the Whyalla shipyards. Asbestos was sprayed around there continuously in the 60s and 70s.
by shellbell on Jun 29, 2012 at 3:48 pm