Seat of the week: Corangamite
Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne since its creation at federation, its complexion changing somewhat with the absorption of the Geelong suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont in 1955. It was one of Labor’s two gains in Victoria when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007, giving Labor its first win in the seat since the Great Depression. In its current form the electorate includes the Geelong suburbs south-west of the Barwon River and the Great Ocean Road as far as Apollo Bay, together with rural areas to the west and north. The Geelong suburbs, which include Liberal-leaning Highton and marginal Belmont and Grovedale, contain a little over a third of the electorate’s voters, and are distinguished (along with Torquay) by a younger demographic profile and a preponderance of mortgage payers. Growth in Geelong, Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula left the seat over quota at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, resulting in the transfer of most of the Bellarine Peninsula (accounting for about 5700 voters) to Corio. This has had a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which on Antony Green’s calculation goes from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Labor’s only wins in Corangamite prior to 2007 were in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became member for a term (he would return as member for the inner Melbourne seat of Yarra in 1922), and at the 1929 election when Scullin’s short-lived government came to power. The Country Party held the seat for one term from 1931, after which it was held by the United Australia Party and then the Liberal Party. The enlargement of parliament in 1984 cost the electorate its most conservative rural territory in the west, but it took another 23 years before Labor was able to realise its hopes of gaining the seat. It was assisted to this end by the “sea change” phenomenon, the ABC TV series of that name having been set in the electorate at Barwon Heads. This has drained about 10% from the Liberal primary vote in the Great Ocean Road towns since the early 1990s, with the Greens vote there burgeoning to 17% at the 2010 election.
Corangamite was held from 1984 to 2007 by Stewart McArthur, who to the dismay of some in the Liberal Party sought another term in 2007 at the age of 70. His Labor challenger was 31-year-old Darren Cheeseman, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union who won a hotly contested preselection over Peter McMullin, the Right-backed mayor of Geelong and candidate from 2004. Cheeseman went on to overwhelm McArthur’s 5.3% margin with a 6.2% swing that was evenly distributed throughout the electorate. Faced at the 2010 election by a fresh Liberal candidate in Sarah Henderson, a former state host of The 7.30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, Cheeseman was brought within 771 votes of defeat by a 0.4% swing that went slightly against the trend of a 1.0% statewide swing to Labor. Cheeseman went on to receive substantial publicity in February 2012 when he declared Labor would be “decimated” if Julia Gillard led it to the election, which set the ball rolling on Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge a week later.
Sarah Henderson will again represent the Liberals at the next election after winning a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection in 2010. Henderson’s backers reportedly included Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, with Nockles having support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer. In the event, Henderson won a surprisingly easy victory with an absolute majority on the first round.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
But, at the end of the day, you’ll preference Abbott’s party ahead of Labor, won’t you.
by It’s Time on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:17 am
Eminently determinable prediction, lets see.
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:18 am
Oh will I? Probably not, actually….as I have said about a zillion times on PB already if you actually read my posts rather than furiously starting to write your rebuttals as soon as you see my monicker appearing!
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:19 am
BB:
Just saw a coalition advert along the ‘she lied!’ lines.
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:19 am
I see what Cassidy is doing. It’s good. These things need to be discussed. But his argument is disingenuous too. If he argues that the GST is good yet the ALP wrongly opposed it, the identical claim can be made that opposing carbon pricing is wrong as well. Maybe Abbott should just get out of the way and give it a chance to work.
by Aguirre on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:20 am
Moddy, how’s the head this morning? Tongue a bit furry, what?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:21 am
will still work, its just going to cost you more money today compared with yesterday! MOD LIB SAID
MYSAY
mod lib you are as bad as abbottt.
3000 extra for many re thresh hold. , pensions extra., in all areas.
And on top of that cleaner air, just think we may see te end of for ex. Asthma.
Australia this morning is i deed the lucky cou try
Abbott waits in the wings with you, to turn us backward.
If you are saying u work in the are mentio , the may be u should hang
Your head in shame
It should be your job to spread happiness and positive vibes
Not gloom and doom
But ha, no u dont
Being on akey board in the same room with your negstive vibes, makes me feel unwell
We planned a trip to national park to day
In our new diezel bmw. Oh gift to himslf after worki ng 48 years
Mi d u its last years model so cheaper price. Much cheaper, wante one since he ws 15
So i said why not
So the kids all ages off tothe highland to breath in the clean air we have an y way
The areas through the coal areas will haver cleaner air soon
Thankyou’ julia , thankyou
by my say on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:21 am
Mod lib @ 1397
you look at when the polling was done
when the polls were 58 -42 & 59-41 after the budget not when the compo started
by Meguire Bob on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:21 am
Why doesn’t Gillard slap down Cassidy and any other clown that uses the term ‘Carbon Tax’? She keeps saying ‘Price on Carbon’ herself, but lets him get away with it.
by bemused on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:21 am
I am a Buddhist, Fulvio, I have never been drunk in my life…assuming that is what you are implying!
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:21 am
@tveedercom: PM Julia Gillard “Mr Abbott.. cannot go to the next election pretending anything else than carbon pricing is going to stay.” #Insiders
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:22 am
You shouldn’t even have asked the question – you should have sent it to Bilbo and told Ruawake that you had
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:22 am
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:22 am
Must have been the omm juice then…
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:23 am
Guytaur
or if the liberal party primary falls to 41-42%
by Meguire Bob on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:23 am
I will look, all I was asking you is when the compo started (June) and the previous month of Newspolls had the result at 54-46, then after the compo started the Newspoll was worse for the ALP (55-45) although within the margin of error.
The point is there was no bounce with the compo, lets see whether there is a bounce when the prices start to go up.
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:23 am
Today is the day that I have to pay, so I was just checking whether or not I have to make a copy or not…nothing to do with you Tom!
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:25 am
Bemused
if it was an tax, wouldnt prices rise 10% automatically like they did when the gst came in
by Meguire Bob on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:25 am
AS now. Cassidy expects Gillard to own the intransigence of the other parties in parliament.
by Aguirre on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:25 am
lol ok mod Lib @ 1414
by Meguire Bob on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:26 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
The BISONs ROAR: Aust is in Asia, the growth engine averaging 6%. It’s middle and aspiration class is expected to hit 1 billion by 2020
by The Finnigans on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:26 am
Mod Lib on the polling expertise again, rofl!
by zoidlord on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:28 am
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/want-to-hang-out-with-the-prime-minister-heres-how-20120630-219g5.html#ixzz1zK2nBacx
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:29 am
Mod Lib: We’ll wait & see if the tax cuts boost Labor’s polling over the next couple of months.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:33 am
Meguire Bob @ 1416
That is an amazingly confused statement.
1. I don’t think it is a tax and have never said it was.
2. I was mildly critical of the PMs failure to slap down Cassidy for calling it a tax.
3. Where do you get 10% from? The price on Carbon emissions is $23.00/ton.
4. The GST is 10% but it replaced the old WST so it was only items previously untaxed that rose 10%
5. The CPI impact of the Carbon Price is estimated at 0.7%
by bemused on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:35 am
Bemused
Abbott is claiming prices will rise 10-20%
that is where i get my statement from
by Meguire Bob on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:36 am
sorry for the confusion
by Meguire Bob on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:37 am
Chairman of Whyalla CCI on RN taking the piss out of Abbott’s wiped off the map declarations.
Good stuff.
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:37 am
What the hell? Journalists now calling it a carbon price and slamming Gillard for calling it a tax??
by Aguirre on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:38 am
What was your 2010 election prediction zoidlord?
I can’t seem to find it!
Or your NSW or Qld State predictions, any will do…
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:40 am
Vanstone sounding like an AGW denialist talking about doubting the science of AGW. What is it with Liberals and an inability to accept rational post-Enlightenment thinking?
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:41 am
The Finnigans
Oh great. One billion bitching about what a struggle it is on $150,000 + a year what with the mortgage on the McMansion and investment propery the private school fees for Ffiona running the 2 SUV’s and the cost of overseas holidays
by poroti on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:41 am
Meguire Bob @ 1424
My apologies.
Be careful quoting a nutter.
by bemused on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:42 am
Paul Barratt: the physics of climate change were settled in 1854.
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:42 am
Serious discussion amongst journos on Insiders on the fact the carbon price is not a tax, so why didn’t the PM shut down any reference to it being a tax?
How about journos not using terms they know are incorrect to begin with – or don’t they have any responsibility to be truthful?
by zoomster on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:42 am
She just had to say the “t” word …
Watch the media have a field day
by spur212 on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:43 am
zoomster:
Bit ruff blaming the media for using a term the Prime Minister said she was happy to use herself.
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:43 am
Get over yourself, mod lib, I don’t studiously follow your postings.
You disavow Abbott, but would still be prepared to vote for a different Lib leader who is obviously sitting in the current party and giving at least nominal support to Abbott and his “policies” and not voicing any criticism. So, which hypocritical potential Lib leader would you vote for? And why are you prepared to accept their current hypocrisy?
by It’s Time on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:43 am
FYI on the panel of eminiant Australians, the PM was superb.
by spur212 on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:44 am
@TRON_Lord: Wow Probyn proving how idiotic he is by deliberately misleading people on Greens position on the issue. #insiders
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:44 am
morning
Thanks to all the bludgers on Whyalla watch. So relieved it has not been wiped off the map!
by victoria on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:47 am
And you supported Rudd as leader and I presume Latham as leader and the current leader supported both of those leaders (in one case right up until she backstabbed him and the other right until he had his political version of a nervous breakdown).
Hoist by your own petard.
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:47 am
The Insiders panel is excoriating Abbott’s “turn back the boats to Indonesia” plan
by BK on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:47 am
ML
zoomster is right. Journalists are supposed to be professional. If what you claim is true then Journalists could say the PM mistakenly calling it a tax. The fact is the media has been unprofessional to give the Coalition a free kick in the carbon price debate.
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:48 am
The interim measure for the government on Boat People is obvious.
Send the next boat load to Nauru. Immediate.
This will be challenged in the High court and most likely found wanting, as there are no facilities on Nauru, even though they have signed the Convention.
If the High Court says “No” to Nauru out of hand, then the Opposition is wedged and should then compromise.
If the High Courst says, “It might work, assuming good facilities, but ‘No’ this time,” then the government will start to build facilities that it hopes will pass the High Court’s new test. What are these facilities to be? And how much will they cost?
When the facilities are built, then it will go back to the High Court. The government will be betting that the new facilities will pass the “test”. What if they don’t?
Will the High Court set out a plan for them? Will it commission blueprints from architects? Or will it keep on saying, “Guess what we want, and then ask us again”?
The simplest way to fix this problem will be for the rights or wrongs of Nauru to be taken out of the equation by changing the law to allow both Nauruan AND Malaysia.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:48 am
Since Bob Brown left the Greens have looked far more extremist
by spur212 on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:49 am
Beautiful sunny winter morning here in Perth.
Good wishes to the people of Whyalla for having made it to July 1 without being wiped of the surface of the earth – and the good people of Yallourn – except the town was actually wiped off the surface of the earth by the then SEC years ago.
My prognostication: One week from today the CT will be old news. However, I don’t anticipate huge jump in polls for some weeks yet.
The ploy now will be to blame every price rise on the CT – even Aunty Floe’s new set of dentures.
by Tricot on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:49 am
guytaur:
Many here want the media to function as ALP media or PR companies!
If the PM said she was happy to call it a tax, you cannot criticise the media for calling it a tax AND saying that the PM was wrong.
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:49 am
victoria:
The Chair of Whyalla CCI referred to a replica HMAS historical statue in the town as residents’ escape vessel when armageddon struck.
Hilarious stuff. And he said it deadpan as well.
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:50 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
The hypocrisy and crocodile tears of Joe Hockey have been exposed. Shame, Joe shame
by The Finnigans on Jul 1, 2012 at 9:50 am