Seat of the week: Corangamite
Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne since its creation at federation, its complexion changing somewhat with the absorption of the Geelong suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont in 1955. It was one of Labor’s two gains in Victoria when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007, giving Labor its first win in the seat since the Great Depression. In its current form the electorate includes the Geelong suburbs south-west of the Barwon River and the Great Ocean Road as far as Apollo Bay, together with rural areas to the west and north. The Geelong suburbs, which include Liberal-leaning Highton and marginal Belmont and Grovedale, contain a little over a third of the electorate’s voters, and are distinguished (along with Torquay) by a younger demographic profile and a preponderance of mortgage payers. Growth in Geelong, Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula left the seat over quota at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, resulting in the transfer of most of the Bellarine Peninsula (accounting for about 5700 voters) to Corio. This has had a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which on Antony Green’s calculation goes from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Labor’s only wins in Corangamite prior to 2007 were in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became member for a term (he would return as member for the inner Melbourne seat of Yarra in 1922), and at the 1929 election when Scullin’s short-lived government came to power. The Country Party held the seat for one term from 1931, after which it was held by the United Australia Party and then the Liberal Party. The enlargement of parliament in 1984 cost the electorate its most conservative rural territory in the west, but it took another 23 years before Labor was able to realise its hopes of gaining the seat. It was assisted to this end by the “sea change” phenomenon, the ABC TV series of that name having been set in the electorate at Barwon Heads. This has drained about 10% from the Liberal primary vote in the Great Ocean Road towns since the early 1990s, with the Greens vote there burgeoning to 17% at the 2010 election.
Corangamite was held from 1984 to 2007 by Stewart McArthur, who to the dismay of some in the Liberal Party sought another term in 2007 at the age of 70. His Labor challenger was 31-year-old Darren Cheeseman, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union who won a hotly contested preselection over Peter McMullin, the Right-backed mayor of Geelong and candidate from 2004. Cheeseman went on to overwhelm McArthur’s 5.3% margin with a 6.2% swing that was evenly distributed throughout the electorate. Faced at the 2010 election by a fresh Liberal candidate in Sarah Henderson, a former state host of The 7.30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, Cheeseman was brought within 771 votes of defeat by a 0.4% swing that went slightly against the trend of a 1.0% statewide swing to Labor. Cheeseman went on to receive substantial publicity in February 2012 when he declared Labor would be “decimated” if Julia Gillard led it to the election, which set the ball rolling on Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge a week later.
Sarah Henderson will again represent the Liberals at the next election after winning a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection in 2010. Henderson’s backers reportedly included Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, with Nockles having support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer. In the event, Henderson won a surprisingly easy victory with an absolute majority on the first round.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
melbourne anti carbon tax rally starting to warm up
https://twitter.com/mikestuchbery/status/219250231307538432/photo/1
maybe the sydney one will out do even this endorsement of Abbott’s call to action?
by sprocket_ on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Thanks SK – I’ve whipped off an email asking her to resign.
Today is a day all labor should be celebrating but once again we have some stupid twit spoiling it with leadership talk. The woman should be asked to resign immediately.
by BH on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Space Kidette:
The Holly Cooper thing just highlights that there are people in Labor who still don’t understand that Liberal staffers, Liberal politicians, Liberal-friendly journalists are not your friends.
The political battles that go on between supporters on internet platforms have never really been the lived reality in Canberra with both sides seeing the life in politics as something in common. Those times are have changed and that same battle mentality that has played out on Twitter and in the online comment sections of newspapers, blogs and forums is now flourishing in Canberra. Collegiality is dead.
by Fiz on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:10 pm
indeed there is “about 1000″ at Hyde Park, with this first report filtering through of the outrage of the citizenry
by sprocket_ on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:11 pm
sprocket
A thousand people in Sydney. How many in Melbourne?
by victoria on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Classy
by sprocket_ on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:15 pm
BH
Without knowing anything. How do we know the Liberal Staffer is being truthful?
by victoria on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Fiz:
It is indeed bizarre. I personally shall go wild when Abbott is finally deposed.
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:18 pm
by victoria on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Max Suich is writing a three-part series of articles in ‘The Weekend Australia’s Enquirer’ magazine.
Geez, they are good. They should be a must-read for every Australia.
The basic question he examines is this: ‘Is Australia repeating the mistakes in the 1930s in relation to China, India and Indonesia?’ (His view is that these mistakes contributed materially to the onset of the Pacific War.)
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm
https://mobile.twitter.com/mikestuchbery/status/219248772146933761/photo/1
by victoria on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm
I thought the tweet said holly cooper was a Labor staffer?
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm
victoria
The tweet I saw said it was a Labor staffer. Where is the story???
by lizzie on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:20 pm
I refer PBers to the ACCC dob-in-a-carbon-price-gouger form.
Brandon Lynch, Town and Country Hotel, St Peters, Sydney says on P13 of today’s Sunday Telegraph that he will put his residents’ rents up 10%-20% because of the carbon “tax”.
Come on PBers ….. if the ACCC gets 10 or 20 reports from us, this could become a well publicised test case.
You can do it online NOW at:
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/maintain/create/index.phtml?contentTypeItemId=1059405&informationSpaceItemId=268347&inPop=1&returnUrl=.&type=Other
Do it!!!
by psyclaw on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:20 pm
confessions
Apparently Liberal staffer reckons Labor Staffer Holly cooper made those comments in a bar in Melbourne.
by victoria on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:22 pm
LSL – Labor’s opposition to the GST was repaid with 12 years of Howard rule.
We owe Abbott nothing. In fact, he owes us for the coverups within the Howard Govt. over many of those years, the obnoxious dogwhistling and for the wilful waste of mining revenue.
by BH on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Victoria
not sure about these anti carbon tax rallies – were they advertised? Seems like a bunch of Convoy wackers, loyal Abbott followers.
Maybe Abbott will make an appearance at the Melbourne one to bolster the numbers?
I actually hope these extremists do get some press
by sprocket_ on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:23 pm
So, around three decades of AGW action delay by the Australian branch of AGW Reactionaries Inc, ended in a temporary tactical defeat at midnight last night. They will not give up on their strategic objectives.
They have already guaranteed that we will pass through 400 pppm atmospheric CO2 concentrations. IMHO, they are climate criminals, responsible for deaths and misery.
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:23 pm
I think you will find that the people with 5 digit salaries who you see complaining about the devastating financial impact of the carbon price in the News Ltd and other media over the next few days will all be lifelong Liberal members/supporters. As many on PB demonstrate daily (sorry to be unkind,, but it’s true) the sense of tribal loyalty to their chosen political party is so strong that they are prepared to argue black is white in support.
But my guess is that the issue will fade in significance fairly quickly in the minds of most people. The issue of Julia as a liar will take longer to fade: in fact i doubt it will Therefore, now would be the ideal time for her to step aside for Shorten or a Combet.
I thought she looked magnificent this morning on Insiders. She is a first rate PM. But she can’t win. She hasn’t got what it takes to cut through the web of media lies. If she was just becoming PM now, she might. But she’s taken too many hits, and the impact of sexism among older voters (especially, oddly enough, among the women) cannot be underestimated. A clean skin could immediately turn the balance against Abbott and just about put him away.
She should step aside and become a sort of super minister on issues of national importance. First, the boat people, then Gonski, then disability insurance. Maybe Murray-Darling too. She is a terrific negotiator.
And for those cherishing thoughts of Ruddstoration in their hearts, dream on. Apart from his total incompetence and the divisive impact he would immediately have on the Caucus, how would he handle the boat people issue? He has an identical view to the Greens on the matter. Abbott would turn him Into mincemeat.
by meher baba on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:23 pm
sprocket
Judging by the pics in Melbourne, no one showed up!
by victoria on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Followed with psyclaw saying “No”
LOL!
Just as I predicted.
Shows: Have you posted the direct quote where I said Rudd should be blamed for drowning people yet?
No?
by Mod Lib on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Wadda we want?
MORE POLLUTION
when do we wannit?
NOW
by sprocket_ on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Finss, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co denies all knowledge of the failure of the main cooling mechanism and the consequent failure of the back up cooling mechanism.
There is no connection between the current so-called ‘news’ in relation to Fukushima spent rods pools cooling malfunctions, and the sudden decision of the F,B,F&Co executives to participate in a corporate team-building function in Swaziland.
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:27 pm
by sprocket_ on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:28 pm
The Opposition wasting money on ads:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/anticarbon-tax-ads-launched-by-the-oppn-20120701-21aa3.html
by zoidlord on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:29 pm
victoria:
Thanks for clarification.
by confessions on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:30 pm
It used to be senior unnamed source in the labor party, oh how far Ruddsteration has fallen.
by fredn on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:30 pm
sprocket
The anti-Afghanistan War rallies I attended was bi-modal, about 50:50 young folk with strange hair arrangements and be-suited remnants survivors of the anti-Vietnam War demos.
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:30 pm
meher baba
It wont be Shorten
by victoria on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Hi Poroti, BH, and Boerwar,
Thanks for your advise and update.
Yes, there are some instances of nature’s fury occurring in the ‘lower 48’ at the moment, in the form of fires and storms.
Although, I should point out that my US-born wife and I now reside in Vancouver (we’re holidaying with her folks in their RV).
As for global warming; that’s not occurring in the US.
Glenn Beck said so a few months ago on FOX News.
Julian
by Julian Watson on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:33 pm
I would have thought it would be better to stay indoors for the end of the world.
by fredn on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Is Ms Cooper a Greens Party Plant, a Liberal Party Plant, a Rudd Plant, or just plain effin stupid?
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Or dids the Liberal staffer just make shit up?
by fredn on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:35 pm
seems the sydney rally is something stirred up by ShockJock radio, which would explain the angry older particpants, which is thedemographic
by sprocket_ on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Fran,
I will only respond to a few points as I think there is a risk that hugely long posts run the risk of becoming tedious (I know that is a risk you are prepared to take
)
A more generous person would have used admirable rather than defensible. A committed pedant would also have used commas more carefully
.
In my first post I included a link to the ALP site in question. When you did not respond to that part of my post I followed up with a post that interspersed your remarks with quotes from the ALP site. I should have included the link in my follow up post as some may not have read my initial post. Mea culpa.
Not sure what you meant here, but my recollection was that Whitlam was widely criticized by the opposition and media for his recognition of China, and that his stance was vindicated when Nixon visited China shortly after.
It looks like I (and the ALP site) might have been wrong about this. Anyone else care to comment.
See…I knew you had a more generous side.
Any assessment of the actions of political parties need to take into account the culture and political background when the actions were taken. Your criticism here is a bit like having a go at the Curtin government for not tackling the issue of same-sex marriage.
by Jolyon Wagg on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:36 pm
On this “is it a carbon tax?” thing.
I’m pretty sure the media had picked up the Libs’ TAX theme well and truly before the PM was pinned in a corner by Heather Ewart. Reading the i.v. again, (courtesy of Mod Lib) the aggression of Ewart is obvious. She was barracking for the Libs.
One of the Insiders (not sure who) said it wouldn’t have made much difference whether the PM agreed with “tax” or not. It was still going to be an attack by Abbott.
Because of that factor, by using the “Carbon Tax” almost every time, the ABC has effectively been prejudicing audience against the PM, IMO.
by lizzie on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:36 pm
So, only one man and his dog have turned up to the Melbourne chapter meeting of the “we love pollution club” ?
Isn’t this the one that Gloria Jones is adressing ?
Will he turn up ?
How embarrasment
by Mick Collins on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Julian
It is good to know that Glenn Beck is in line with the North Caroline Senate which passed a bill, wtte, that coastal planners would only be allowed to listen to climate scientists who are wRONg.
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Mod Lib said
Followed with psyclaw saying “No”
Another incomplete quote which ever so slightly changes the message.
Psyclaw actually said:
No.
Nor has he apologised for habitually posting out of context and misleading quotes and “data”.
Chickens home and roosting still……
by psyclaw on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:39 pm
fredn
Impossible. No one in the Coalition lies. About anything. Ever.
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:41 pm
victoria – asked for an explanation but it was returned ‘mail not directed’. Let’s hope someone in Labor gets to the bottom of it.
by BH on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:41 pm
News travels fast, this is an extract of an email from a firm in Hong Kong I deal with.
Kogan Offsets the Carbon Tax
Today marks the beginning of the operation of the Carbon Tax. According to the governments’s Clean Energy Website, the Carbon Tax will result in a 0.7% increase in the cost of living for Australians.
In response, Kogan is proud to announce the immediate introduction of a Carbon Tax Offset Trading Scheme. For the next 14 days (unless the Carbon Tax is repealed earlier), any Australian can claim their Carbon Tax Offset Trading Scheme Entitlement by simply entering the code CARBONTAX at the checkout of kogan.com, which will reduce the price of an order* by 0.7%.
Kogan’s Carbon Tax Offset Trading Scheme – There is always a better way
by Schnappi on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:42 pm
An Iraqi refugee who was tortured by Saddam Hussein’s region and made his way to Indonesia in 1999 and then worked in the smuggling business to get himself and his family to Australia :
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/a-way-to-stop-the-boats-20120630-219gh.html
The Greens position (in part):
http://sarah-hanson-young.greensmps.org.au/content/news-stories/heres-how-create-long-term-safer-pathways-australia-asylum-seekers
by Pegasus on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:42 pm
BH
george can’t find a link to the Abbott, Bishop, Hockey poster you mentioned. Can you help?
by BK on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:42 pm
I would doubt very much if any backgrounding against the PM would be organized through a staffer.
three options,
1) she was just trying to big note or
2) misquoted or
3) all bulls..t
i would go for a bit of 2 and 3.
Remember lib staffers say…
Anyway, in the overall scheme of things is it really front and centre ?
Only time will tell.
by Doyley on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:43 pm
So far not seen any rallies on News 24.
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:44 pm
P
‘…genuinely…’
Love it. The Greens have just assisted in ‘genuinely’ making a decision that effectively helps maintain the status quo, which is drowning people.
‘Genuine’ is good.
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Alan Jones addressing the Melbourne anti-CT throng?
and
by sprocket_ on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Peg
That is exactly what both Julian Burnside and George Newhouse are arguing.
by MTBW on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:47 pm
DTT said:
Here’s a table for Australia with listings for major cities:
How Solar Panel Systems Work
The lowest daily output (for a 1.5kW system which these days is generally the lowest chosen) is 5.2kWh (in Hobart). The average output is just above 6kWh.
Currently (no pun intended) one can buy panels at about $1500 per kW so assuming a 1 kW panel operating every day for 10 years at about 4kWh per day, you get 14,608kWh or 14.608MWh. Allowing a CO2 intensity of 0.9tCO2e/MWh for coal fired generation (this ignores full lifecycle which would include emissions in harvest, transport and processing, the incidental CO2 cost of running the coal plant and energy losses in transmission which can be as high as 10%) you get a CO2 emissions bill of … 14.608 * 0.9 tCO2e = 13.1472tCO2e. i.e a little over $111 per ton.
That’s obviously still fairly expensive, given that our carbon price is around $23tCO2e. Of course, those tons of CO2 are abated forever not just ten years. The “long tail” of the perturbation extends for as long as silicate weathering permanently with draws CO2 from the flux. Some estimates put that timeline at longer than 50,000 years.
There’s talk of panels that will double the efficiency of current panels from 15->30%. On the above calculations, that would put abatement at $55tCO2e. Abatement (and I exclude CC&S from this because that simply stores CO2 in under pressure in aquifers until it escapes and is estimated at about $100tCO2e by coal industry figures) is not going to be cheap at least on the timelines we would like it to be cheap along. Panels are falling in cost, and of course, fossil HCs are not inexhaustible and not free and likely to edge upwards in price as harvesting them becomes more technically challenging. Not the least of the reasons for decarbonising is foreclosure of price shock inflation. One might add to that a more decentralised energy system is likely to be less costly to maintain and less subject to brownouts during anomalous surges in demand. Thus, even if the abatement cost is higher, the total public goods value of near zero fossil HC energy supply is radically understated by reference to abatement of CO2e alone.
My own view is that a trajectory to a price of $(AUD2012)100tCO2e by 2020 is where the world needs to be as soon as possible.
Usage Note: kW is a capacity specification. It describes the peak output of a system, much as it does in relation to a car’s engine. The specification “kWh” describes total output over a period of time. For example, one can get 3000kWh from a 1kW system running at capacity for 3000 hours, or a 10kW system running at capacity for 300 hours.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 1, 2012 at 12:47 pm