Seat of the week: Corangamite
Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne since its creation at federation, its complexion changing somewhat with the absorption of the Geelong suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont in 1955. It was one of Labor’s two gains in Victoria when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007, giving Labor its first win in the seat since the Great Depression. In its current form the electorate includes the Geelong suburbs south-west of the Barwon River and the Great Ocean Road as far as Apollo Bay, together with rural areas to the west and north. The Geelong suburbs, which include Liberal-leaning Highton and marginal Belmont and Grovedale, contain a little over a third of the electorate’s voters, and are distinguished (along with Torquay) by a younger demographic profile and a preponderance of mortgage payers. Growth in Geelong, Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula left the seat over quota at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, resulting in the transfer of most of the Bellarine Peninsula (accounting for about 5700 voters) to Corio. This has had a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which on Antony Green’s calculation goes from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Labor’s only wins in Corangamite prior to 2007 were in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became member for a term (he would return as member for the inner Melbourne seat of Yarra in 1922), and at the 1929 election when Scullin’s short-lived government came to power. The Country Party held the seat for one term from 1931, after which it was held by the United Australia Party and then the Liberal Party. The enlargement of parliament in 1984 cost the electorate its most conservative rural territory in the west, but it took another 23 years before Labor was able to realise its hopes of gaining the seat. It was assisted to this end by the “sea change” phenomenon, the ABC TV series of that name having been set in the electorate at Barwon Heads. This has drained about 10% from the Liberal primary vote in the Great Ocean Road towns since the early 1990s, with the Greens vote there burgeoning to 17% at the 2010 election.
Corangamite was held from 1984 to 2007 by Stewart McArthur, who to the dismay of some in the Liberal Party sought another term in 2007 at the age of 70. His Labor challenger was 31-year-old Darren Cheeseman, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union who won a hotly contested preselection over Peter McMullin, the Right-backed mayor of Geelong and candidate from 2004. Cheeseman went on to overwhelm McArthur’s 5.3% margin with a 6.2% swing that was evenly distributed throughout the electorate. Faced at the 2010 election by a fresh Liberal candidate in Sarah Henderson, a former state host of The 7.30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, Cheeseman was brought within 771 votes of defeat by a 0.4% swing that went slightly against the trend of a 1.0% statewide swing to Labor. Cheeseman went on to receive substantial publicity in February 2012 when he declared Labor would be “decimated” if Julia Gillard led it to the election, which set the ball rolling on Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge a week later.
Sarah Henderson will again represent the Liberals at the next election after winning a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection in 2010. Henderson’s backers reportedly included Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, with Nockles having support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer. In the event, Henderson won a surprisingly easy victory with an absolute majority on the first round.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
From? I see for private consumption only.
by The Finnigans on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:46 pm
The proletariat have spoken….
https://twitter.com/TonyBarry/status/219274553308872704/photo/1
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Finns
We have already posted a disclaimer. We know nothing, right? BTW, I do hope you can join the F,B,F & Co Executive Team Building exercise we are running in Swaziland on a sudden whim?
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:46 pm
JG should slap him with a writ or whatever they call them nowdays.
by BH on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Biggest applause so far to abolish the marriage act entirely
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Yep 37 C both times. But someone needs to tell Barnaby that you are not meant to sleep while taking rectal temperature
by poroti on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:49 pm
poroti
*laughs*
by Boerwar on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:50 pm
And derisive booing for the god-bothering clown in the audience.
by BK on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Boerwar
Depends on who’s in charge of the stats, I suppose. Wouldn’t trust the Tea Party not to “adjust” everything. After all, if they have the power to deny CC and Evolution, well…
by lizzie on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:51 pm
So, 50 odd (very odd) at Melbourne rally and 1000 at Sydney, yeah?
Any photos of the massive crowds up yet?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Someone called the slow caravans “aluminium roadblocks.”
by This little black duck on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Fulvio
There’s this -
https://twitter.com/mikestuchbery/status/219263140888715266/photo/1
by leone on Jul 1, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Did she provide heating to the demented sugar daddy she kept locked in a shed in her backyard
by castle on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:00 pm
News 24 still not showing rallies unless they do a live cross.
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:01 pm
guytaur
Thanks for alerting me to the debate – interesting!
by MTBW on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:02 pm
More evidence of abbotts liberals deceit.
Andrew Leigh@ALeighMP
Although I pointed out the error in parlt on Thu, a Lib ad deliberately misquoting me still hasn’t been pulled http://bit.ly/LY9pQQ
by Schnappi on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Guytaur, I wonder why?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Some random tweets about the rally.
by leone on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Fulvio
I do not know. Probably so the ABC can avoid lawsuits. I do think they could cover in the same way as they did Hanson rallies though.
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:07 pm
I wonder if the Sydney Chapter are enjoying their lunch. They should be just far enough away not to hear Jones and Mirrabella ranting.
by BH on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Solly Bludgers, i am facing extinction here at Bradfield.
the end of the world at Bradfield afternoon – http://twitpic.com/a2iht5/full
by The Finnigans on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Fulvio
In my view its actually great they are getting no coverage. From the sounds of the numbers in Melbourne such a decision is justified. Not big enough to cover.
So much for Abbott’s big day.
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Received a letter yesterday from our electricity supplier, ActewAGL, saying there would be a price rise effective today:
Interestingly they also give a breakdown of the components of the increase:
. Energy (generation of electricity) – down 0.6%
. Carbon price (price on CO2 emissions) – up 14.2%
. Green schemes (government renewable energy schemes) – down 0.5%
. Network (poles & wiring, metering) – up 4.4%
. Retail (bills & marketing) – up 0.2%
making a total for consumers (residential, small business) – up 17.7%..
by This little black duck on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Hey guys, did you know that an inflatable Anti Carbon Tax baseball bat could be purchased for $10 including handling and postage?
Of course that was before today. Today they’ll have to charge eleventy billion because of the tax … although, on reflection, if the forces of supply and demand, as demonstrated at both rallies, were invoked, rather than the effect of the Carbon price, that would fix the cost at … oh … 3.7 cents.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:17 pm
All happening today
Séan@esseeeayeenn
Today, the minimum wage increases from $589.30 per week to $606.40 and approx $361.53 will be tax free instead of $115.38
by Schnappi on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Finns, is your neighbour in Bradfield into nude sunbathing?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Fulvio,
Not after that!
by This little black duck on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:22 pm
The preference deals Labor is prepared to do.
In the Melbourne by-election there are 16 candidates.
William has reported:
Will Labor strike similar deals in the next Federal election?
by Pegasus on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:24 pm
So what next? Media reform? High speed train report? More City train lines? Restoring some major country lines?
Tax incentives to build warehouses for online shopping?
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:26 pm
A lot of smugness here today – you guys can laugh about it, but there are a lot of people who can’t afford to put the heating on this winter.
Go and ask the Salvation Army, or St Vinnies, and they’ll give you some horror stories.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:29 pm
TLBD – How come it is that high?
by BH on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:30 pm
ABC estimates that thousands of people attended the anti Carbon Tax Sydney rally – yep, the ABC……hardly a card carrying media outlet for the Liberals.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:30 pm
These stupid anti-carbon rallies make me ashamed to be a retiree. World please note: these are not my people!
by lizzie on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Show us the photographs, Evan.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:32 pm
BH,
I’m just reporting what they told me. They didn’t go into any more detail.
by This little black duck on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:32 pm
All public housing where State Givernments have taken rents out for “maintenance” should have wind and solar power installed.
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Typo city for me today. Givernment should of course be Government.
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Same here lizzie!
by BK on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:35 pm
One thing worse than being smug about poor people – it’s using poor people to falsely scare the shit out of the nation.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:35 pm
virtualkat:
Fair enough. I missed that. Apparently the unsubsidised cost is closer to $2500kW so that would push my estimate up by about 2/3. As a tenant, I’ve never bought panels. Apparently though the industrial scale (i.e. not rooftop) panels are already around the $1500kW mark and are set to get to $1000kW by 2014.
I don’t agree this follows. CO2 not emitted as a result of fossil HC not being combusted is never released and thus is abated forever. With the arguable exceptions of refrigeration and possibly transport demand for power is specific to time. Power not sold today will not be compensated by greater power sales in the future.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:35 pm
TLM
Well, we’re not using our central heating atm as it’s bottled gas and the price has risen astronomically over the past few years. We’re getting by with evening wood fire and small elec heaters and extra clothing. But I’m not silly enough to blame the C.Tax.
by lizzie on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Wont be surprise if Alan Jones spread this propaganda
July 1 anti-rally in Melbourne should have Gillard and other labor members on notice and l threaten how successful it was for tony abbott
by Meguire Bob on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Well, what are you doing about it? Many of us donate and support them in many ways. What do you do?
by BH on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:38 pm
TLM
Those are people on Government Benefits. The ones that Hockey talks about having an entitlement mentality.
by guytaur on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Abbott is clear on what he will do, but totally clueless on how he would do it, none of the hangers on know either.
Libtard Banshee@LibtardBanshee
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! >>>@LiberalAus: The Coalition’s Plan to Abolish the Carbon Tax http://bit.ly/MYbzRP #auspol #MyLiberal
by Schnappi on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:41 pm
TLBD – I’d be asking a few questions about the 14%. That’s a lot more than the Treasury modelling and the amount other states are saying it is. NSW says 9% and the others are less I think.
by BH on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:44 pm
@TLM/1829
Your the one who’s being smug about it.
by zoidlord on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Fulvio, hope not, else it could be ugly
by The Finnigans on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:48 pm
So Sophie is suggesting that all those pensioners who can’t heat their homes will have less money available to them after Abbott gets on and rolls back the carbon “tax” and the offsets.
by BK on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:48 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
On this fateful day the BISONs can report: Gillard Govt’s reforms to fin advice’ll boost retirement savings of OZ workers by $130B over 15y
by The Finnigans on Jul 1, 2012 at 2:48 pm