Seat of the week: Corangamite
Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne since its creation at federation, its complexion changing somewhat with the absorption of the Geelong suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont in 1955. It was one of Labor’s two gains in Victoria when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007, giving Labor its first win in the seat since the Great Depression. In its current form the electorate includes the Geelong suburbs south-west of the Barwon River and the Great Ocean Road as far as Apollo Bay, together with rural areas to the west and north. The Geelong suburbs, which include Liberal-leaning Highton and marginal Belmont and Grovedale, contain a little over a third of the electorate’s voters, and are distinguished (along with Torquay) by a younger demographic profile and a preponderance of mortgage payers. Growth in Geelong, Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula left the seat over quota at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, resulting in the transfer of most of the Bellarine Peninsula (accounting for about 5700 voters) to Corio. This has had a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which on Antony Green’s calculation goes from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Labor’s only wins in Corangamite prior to 2007 were in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became member for a term (he would return as member for the inner Melbourne seat of Yarra in 1922), and at the 1929 election when Scullin’s short-lived government came to power. The Country Party held the seat for one term from 1931, after which it was held by the United Australia Party and then the Liberal Party. The enlargement of parliament in 1984 cost the electorate its most conservative rural territory in the west, but it took another 23 years before Labor was able to realise its hopes of gaining the seat. It was assisted to this end by the “sea change” phenomenon, the ABC TV series of that name having been set in the electorate at Barwon Heads. This has drained about 10% from the Liberal primary vote in the Great Ocean Road towns since the early 1990s, with the Greens vote there burgeoning to 17% at the 2010 election.
Corangamite was held from 1984 to 2007 by Stewart McArthur, who to the dismay of some in the Liberal Party sought another term in 2007 at the age of 70. His Labor challenger was 31-year-old Darren Cheeseman, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union who won a hotly contested preselection over Peter McMullin, the Right-backed mayor of Geelong and candidate from 2004. Cheeseman went on to overwhelm McArthur’s 5.3% margin with a 6.2% swing that was evenly distributed throughout the electorate. Faced at the 2010 election by a fresh Liberal candidate in Sarah Henderson, a former state host of The 7.30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, Cheeseman was brought within 771 votes of defeat by a 0.4% swing that went slightly against the trend of a 1.0% statewide swing to Labor. Cheeseman went on to receive substantial publicity in February 2012 when he declared Labor would be “decimated” if Julia Gillard led it to the election, which set the ball rolling on Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge a week later.
Sarah Henderson will again represent the Liberals at the next election after winning a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection in 2010. Henderson’s backers reportedly included Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, with Nockles having support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer. In the event, Henderson won a surprisingly easy victory with an absolute majority on the first round.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh – yes, William’s style guide is MUCH more helpful
by fiona on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:04 pm
lizzie…in the light of William’s (well deserved) rebuke, I apologise for calling you lizzie.
(Joke, Joyce!!)
by zoomster on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Thanks Schnappi.
I tried ( and ) but that failed.
by psyclaw on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:05 pm
psyclaw
by Schnappi on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:05 pm
I have not once seen what the libs intend to do for the 6 months, at least , it takes to upgrade the facilities on Nauru if they do not embrace the Malaysia option as well.
I have a great deal of respect for Mr O. and Mr Windsor but they as well as all those looking at this option need to explain what policy will be put in place to cover that time period.
Turning back 200 boats is not a solution neither would tpv’s.
What do they suggest ?
by Doyley on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:05 pm
by Schnappi on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Bilbo @734
Just saw your advice.
Gracias amigo.
by psyclaw on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:06 pm
by Schnappi on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:07 pm
zoomster # 734: No. The first receiving country doesnt have an absolute obligation to provide refugee on its own territory, whether its us or Nauru or places trying to deal with refugee flows in 5 or 6 figures. The absolute obligation is non refoulement (non return to place in where there is a well founded fear of persecution). Provision of refugee can happen in all sorts of ways.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:07 pm
fess
I am not sure. It would not matter anyway. Whatever their conference outcomes, Abbott will do what Abbott will do.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:08 pm
by Schnappi on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:08 pm
by Schnappi on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:08 pm
by Schnappi on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:08 pm
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/14090666/defiant-rob-lets-loose-on-critics/
Aside from the possibility that Abbott might have competition for having the longest dummy spit in history, I am simply amazed that after all his incompetent botching of issues as police minister, and having Barnett continually stand by him, Johnson has the hide to accuse the Premier of betraying him!
by confessions on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:08 pm
A few hours and Mod Lib’s powers of prediction will be proven for all to see. Over a year ago he foolishly bet $100 that Ms Gillard would not be leading the ALP on July 1st 2012.
The money will go to charity.
So whenever you hear Mod Lib make any prediction, remember his failure when money is concerned.
by ruawake on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:09 pm
confessions
Since 2007, the ideologies have drifted too far apart to be compatible.
Wets vs Dries is probably the wrong lens to view it in. Free Market vs Conservative Protectionist is closer to the mark.
The reason people like Peter Reith keep appearing is not because he wants to attack the ALP. Their real target is Abbott and the Nationals
by spur212 on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Puff:
You are probably right.
I just sense that if the coalition are to implode, it will be over issues where the Liberal party is seen to be too close to the Nationals.
by confessions on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Which charity? I hear there’s a few miners short of a quid.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Fess #746: in the interests of decency probably best that I not post a few obvious anagrams of Peta Credlin …
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Sure.
by Mod Lib on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Ah, thanks, mm….even though it was a question more in cheek than in substance…
by zoomster on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:13 pm
The ALP foolishly stayed with Gillard.
That will cost me $100 and the ALP a generation.
by Mod Lib on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:14 pm
schnappi, as has been pointed out to me before, preview often helps
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Bill Maher on Romney’s choice of VP candidate.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/maher-suggests-zimmerman-for-romney-vp-campaign-theme-%E2%80%98i-think-the-black-guy%E2%80%99s-up-to-no-good%E2%80%99/
by BK on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:15 pm
I agree with this. But more in the sense of my comment @ 766.
As to Reith, I see his frequent media appearances as having more to do with Reith than Abbott and Joyce.
by confessions on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:15 pm
713 ML
And how many of the coalition spoke out against the abuse of due process by Abbott and Pyne over Thomson and Slipper? (Oh yes, Washer did once mention the mental health of Thomson). How many complained about the same two reneging on pairing arrangements which are normally a common courtesy. It culminated in a some MPs being denied a chance to go to a funeral. You’d think the conscience might stir sufficiently for somebody to say something. But not even Mal Washer then.
As if this wasn’t enough nobody called them again when Pyne demanded a second opinion or some such before grant a pair for Thomson’s medically confirmed sick leave. Nobody prepared to call that for the disgrace it was?
And let’s not get started on the abuses of question time by their pointless and repetitive MPIs and SSOs. Not a soul prepared to call that? And you’re complaining about Labor MPs standards? Pot …Kettle.
To your credit, I can’t remember you defending this type of behaviour, albeit I sincerely hope you haven’t and Dave discovers! He’s the best deconstructionist on this blog.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:15 pm
F,B,F&Co would like to announce that we have established the Whyalla Disaster Relief Fund. In the event that the funds are not actually needed for Whyalla, funds will be redirected to other worthy causes.
by Boerwar on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Ruawake
I am sure Modlib would like to cut a cheque to the ALP or the ETU or the ACTU in fact
by gough1 on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:15 pm
MM:
Or Warren Truss.
by confessions on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:16 pm
psychlaw and schnappi,
The square brackets trick is best used for italicising and indenting quoted text (and is much easier than the blockquote surrounded by the “less than” and “more than” symbols syntax). The “less than” symbol followed by i followed by the “more than” symbol at the start, and the “less than” symbol followed by /i followed by the “more than” symbol at the end is best for other italicising.
by fiona on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Boerwar:
I had a feeling you and Finns would see opportunities from Whyalla’s imminent decline. Very enterprising!
by confessions on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Sorry with your poor history of prediction I do not accept your assertion.
by ruawake on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:19 pm
BW:
It’s always amusing when the defenders of the boss class complain that the struggle to empower working people and the marginalised amounts to class warfare.
How do they imagine the privileged became privileged and stayed that way, if not through effective class warfare?
One side’s acts are naturalised and rendered unremarkable and presumably eternal while the other’s are seen as subversive. Telling indeed.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Anyone who follows a party with Abbott as its leader has no business complaining about anything ALP members do or don’t do.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:19 pm
zoomster
Sorry I took so long to laugh. I was checking the roast and trying to remove the dog from his spot too close to the fire.
by lizzie on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Mod Lib @ 769
Thanks for your reply.
Do you concede that neither the original nor the amended law actually has any effect on actual rain, the sky, the climate, the clouds, el nino or la nina ie they are just words put together in a room by lawmakers?
by psyclaw on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:21 pm
ruawake:
WAs that the bet?
Silly Mod Lib.
by confessions on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Sure
by Mod Lib on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:22 pm
ML
Bullshit. The government under the Oakeshott Bill will only be able to sign agreements if they are endorsed in writing by the UNHCR, MIO, Red Cross, AND Red Crescent. Just one of them has to say sorry the protections you are providing are inadequate and the whole deal is off.
There is no argument about the need for protections of people sent for offshore assessment. It simply wouldn’t have gotten through the ALP caucus without them.
The Government and Opposition agree that not having them legislated in the receiving company is not the problem. The Morrison amendments change (1) the status as an offshore assessment country from at the Minister’s decision to simply party to the Refugee Convention or Protocol, (2) changing the requirement for the country to be party to the Bali Process to being party to the Refugee Convention or Protocol, and (3) change presenting to the Parliament confirmation that the country is party to the Bali Process, to a copy of the instruments of accession by the country to the Refugees Convention or the Refugees Protocol.
Nothing in the Morrison amendments provides for any further legal protections than the Oakeshott Bill. The High Court noted that simply being a signature to the Refugee Convention would not satisfy the current law. It is nothing more than a cynical attempt to derail a proposal that they fear will work. They deserve nothing but contempt.
by ratsak on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:22 pm
In the unlikely event that anyone here subscribes to the online AFR, I’d be curious to know what this article says. Only the line I’ve copied can be seen otherwise. No doubt its a post Conference article.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/libs_upbeat_but_mindful_of_challenges_OjDBcVZRECx9swtj5tVTnM#
by Leroy on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:22 pm
When italicising I use “em” to open the italics and “/em” to close them.
NB: of course these strings must be enclosed in the greater than/less than characters (shift + , ), (shift + . ):
The (square) brackets are for quotes. These are by default, italicised. Using the ital. tag (or bold) in the quotes turns off italics.
HTH
by Fran Barlow on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Clive Palmer does have a point regarding lobbyists holding political party positions. It reeks of corruption, if the Minister being lobbied has his preselection due to, say, Santo Santoro what will they do when he comes a knocking on behalf of his fee paying client?
by ruawake on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Marrickville Mauler
With the preview shows [] brackets but does not post, brackets at start of post that is with nothing else.
by Schnappi on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:25 pm
ModLib doesn’t understand the law. Like many conservative types I’ve met, he thinks it has something to do with right and wrong.
Of course, the law isn’t at all interested in whether something’s right or wrong. It’s simple interested in whether something is legal or illegal.
The High Court didn’t find that anything to do with the Malaysian solution wasn’t ‘right’. It didn’t find that the protections provided under that agreement weren’t ‘right’. It found that, under the Act, they didn’t meet the legal requirement to be ‘protections’.
The Migration Act can be amended to allow quite outrageous, inhumanitarian actions and the High Court wouldn’t object, just as long as those actions were legal.
I don’t know why conservatives have this starry eyed view of the law standing as a protection between people and injustice. It doesn’t do that, and doesn’t pretend to do that. It is simply the law.
by zoomster on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Did Reith and Costello serve in Cabinet together? The sneer and the smirk in the same room trying to outdo one another.
by RNM1953 on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:29 pm
I’m not allowed to call ModLib names any more, other than ModLib (I assume). I ask posters reading any post I address to him as being liberally strewn with all sorts of invectives, until further notice.
by zoomster on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Jeff Goldblum appeared in Taxi Driver!
by confessions on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Watch the right wing in the US go ape droppings over the SCOTUS ruling on “Obamacare”.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101737813
by BK on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:30 pm
zoomster:
It’s often best to ignore such people rather than engage with them.
by confessions on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Moderate Libs? Crikey moses, last time I looked they’re an extinct species. All that is left is a couple of jellybacks and a heap of redneck reactionaries.
by janice2 on Jun 30, 2012 at 5:31 pm