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Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.

Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.

We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.

The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.

Preselection news:

• ReachTel published results from an automated phone poll of 644 respondents in Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Denison, which showed Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote (compared with 21.3% at the 2010 election) to 28% for the Liberals (22.6%), 17% for Labor (35.8%) and 14% for the Greens (19.0%), panning out to a 65-35 win over Liberal after preferences. However, a Labor internal poll of 400 respondents reported by Matthew Denholm in The Australian had very different results: 23% for Wilkie, 26% for Labor, 31% for the Liberals and 17% for the Greens. Peter Brent at Mumble considered the likely wash-up after preferences, which – despite the roughly 10% swing in Labor-versus-Liberal terms – was as it was at the 2010 election: Wilkie would win if Greens and other preferences allowed him to overtake Liberal and/or Labor, but otherwise preferences from him and the Greens would deliver Labor a comfortable victory. The poll was also said to show Denison voters giving Julia Gillard a strong lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, of 51% to 26%. Anne Mather of The Mercury reports mental health policy adviser Jane Austin is assured of Labor preselection in Denison after winning the endorsement of the Left. The preselection will be officially confirmed at the party’s state conference in August.

• The Nationals have conducted their preselection for Rob Oakeshott’s seat of Lyne, again choosing their unsuccessful candidate from 2010, Port Macquarie gastroenterologist David Gillespie, from a field of five candidates.

• The Nationals have also conducted their preselection for the north coast NSW seat of Page, held for Labor by Janelle Saffin on a margin of 4.2%, choosing Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan over Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.

• The Parramatta Advertiser reports that Martin Zaiter, a 29-year-old partner in a local accountancy firm, has won Liberal preselection for Parramatta. The unsuccessful candidates included Charles Camenzuli, who ran in 2010. Julie Owens holds the seat for Labor on a margin of 4.4%.

• Accumulating political difficulties for Mal Brough have refocused attention on the Liberal National Party preselection for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, for which nominations close tomorrow. The most widely mentioned alternative contender has been Peta Simpson, director of Maroochydore recruitment agency New Staff Solutions.

Brett Worthington of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Jack Lyons of Lyons Constructions, business owner and teacher Peter Wiseman and transport business owner Greg Bickley have nominated for Liberal preselection in Bendigo, where Labor members Steve Gibbons will retire at the next election. An earlier report in the Bendigo Advertiser reported Anita Donlon, an activist for anti-carbon tax group the Consumers and Taxpayers Association and candidate for Bendigo West at the state election, was weighing up whether to nominate.

ABC Newcastle reports Troy Jurd, a director with the NSW Department of Corrective Services Troy Jurd, Greta heart surgeon Duncan Thompson and Upper Hunter councillor Michael Johnsen will contest Liberal preselection for Hunter, which Joel Fitzgibbon holds for Labor on a margin of 12.5%.

Ken McGregor of The Advertiser reports the SA Liberal Party state council will meet on July 27 to determine a replacement for outgoing Senator Mary Jo Fisher. Kate Raggatt, a former staffer to Nick Minchin, has backing from her old old boss’s Right faction and has been widely discussed as a front-runner, but Michael Owen of The Australian reports that her membership has lapsed, and factional rivalries will make it difficult for her to win the waiver she will need from state executive in order to nominate. The other front-runner is said to be moderate-backed Anne Ruston, owner of a Riverland flower-growing business. Serial aspirant Maria Kourtesis has ruled herself out, saying she wishes to stay focused on the state seat of Bright, which she narrowly failed to win from Labor at the 2010 state election. Still circulating as possible candidates are “Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu and Chris Moriarty” UPDATE: The ABC reports the nominees are Bev Barber, Gary Burgess, Greg Mayfield, Kate Raggatt, Anne Ruston and Marijka Ryan.

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  • 1
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    When does the “Just wait until ……” end now?

  • 2
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib (form prev thread)
    You know my position on the PM.

  • 3
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    I said October. I’ll go with the end of September

  • 4
    Mithrandir
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Wonder what ALP primary vote Nielsen will produce.

  • 5
    Thomas Paine.
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Well you might call this a temporary blip because of all the recent noise over the boat people issue. And you might expect it subside again to 55/56-….except now we will have wall to wall scare campaign on the Carbon Tax and the CT lie….which is going to go some way to reinforcing this deterioration.

    They cannot afford at this late stage to be going backwards, and have the prospect of being gut kicked for a few more weeks. Time is running out.

  • 6
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    William

    Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 46-42 to 46-44.

    This does not make sense to me – the numbers need reversing, IMHO. But then nothing about Australian support for Mr Abbott makes sense.

  • 7
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    spur212
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:04 pm | Permalink
    I said October. I’ll go with the end of September

    Give us as much of a head start and as many seats as buffers for future elections as you choose.

    Whatever you do, don’t think you made a mistake keeping Gillard, you didn’t, you should stick with her and eventually the 12 million Australian electors will suddenly wake up and listen, hanging off her every word, rushing to the TV when they can hear her voice….oh, quick, I think the PM is talking, lets listen to what she is promising not to do this time…

    Face it, you guys backed the wrong horse and shot the other one…now you have no Plan B.

  • 8
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar @ 6

    This does not make sense to me – the numbers need reversing, IMHO. But then nothing about Australian support for Mr Abbott makes sense.

    He is not Julia Gillard?

  • 9
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Quite so, BW. Corrected.

  • 10
    Mick Collins
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Given the past weeks bru ha ha over Refugees then this poll is not that surprising.
    As far as being better off under Carbon Pricing and its “compensation package” goes, thats a question that needs time to wash through the electorate.
    When people realise that they have actually been given a Tax-Cut today, they might start to lose some of that negativity. So to when they realise that Whyalla is not for disappearing.

  • 11
    womble
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    could’ve been worse after last week – gives a new baseline now the tax is in – where does it have to be to avoid a change of leadership before Christmas???

  • 12
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 46-42 to 46-44.

    Three Stooges’ maths.

    Apostrophe OK?

    Ducks quickly.

  • 13
    CO
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Unless the Greens can be persuaded to do something on offshore processing there is no chance of recovery. Abbott won the boats standoff easily – unfortunately enough of the punters just want to stop the boats and Abbott is dog-whistling for all it is worth. The shock jocks are murdering Labor on this issue.

  • 14
    Mithrandir
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Didn’t realise there was an election to be held this August. Shit, Labor is screwed.

  • 15
    It's Time
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    I see the mod lib is cheerleading for Abbott’s party again.

    BTW, all movement within MOE so no need for silly predictions.

  • 16
    fiona
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Bemused,

    He is not Julia Gillard?

    Unfortunately, from my perspective, you may be correct.

    Even more unfortunately, from my perspective, people of this opinion have no idea what they are letting themselves in for.

  • 17
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    Mick Collins @ 10

    Given the past weeks bru ha ha over Refugees then this poll is not that surprising.
    As far as being better off under Carbon Pricing and its “compensation package” goes, thats a question that needs time to wash through the electorate.
    When people realise that they have actually been given a Tax-Cut today, they might start to lose some of that negativity. So to when they realise that Whyalla is not for disappearing.

    It will come as a surprise to many that there is no ‘Carbon Tax’ deduction from their next pay and in fact their take home pay has increased.
    That offers some hope.

  • 18
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    b

    The latest person to intimate that Mr Abbott is a physically threatening thug is Mr Palmer. We know that he does character assassination without compunction. We know that he lies without compunction. We know that he adopts whatever position is popular. We know that he changes positions and/or holds multiple positions simultaneously. He treats institutions and individuals with public contempt is they say something he does not like.

    Just the kind of person we really need for a prime minister.

  • 19
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    PEAK Carbon Time

  • 20
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Rudd isn’t Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott

  • 21
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    As far as being better off under Carbon Pricing and its “compensation package” goes, thats a question that needs time to wash through the electorate.

    So of the approximately 45% or so of voters wanting an ALP government (in TPP terms) in most of the polls only 5% think they are better off after the compensation (which they have already received) for a tax they haven’t even paid yet.

    Wait till the electricity bill arrives.

    After Gillard “wore her shoes out” explaining this, you can only convince 1 in 9 ALP voters (that is ALP voters, not all voters let alone the swing voters you actually need).

    She can only convince 1 in 9 ALP voters of what she is saying, thats the maximum rate, not the minimum rate.

  • 22
    fiona
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Westron wind, when will thou blow?
    The small rain down can rain.
    Christ, if my love were in my arms,
    And I in my bed again.

    I shall at least seek my bed.

    Goodnight, all.

  • 23
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    fiona @ 16

    Bemused,

    He is not Julia Gillard?

    Unfortunately, from my perspective, you may be correct.

    Even more unfortunately, from my perspective, people of this opinion have no idea what they are letting themselves in for.

    I am afraid it is the brutal truth and the polls spell it out crystal clear for anyone not practising self delusion.

  • 24
    Pegasus
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    bemused (from previous thread)

    Greens seem to have no trouble holding 2 completely opposed ideas simultaneously. So what’s your problem?

    Have u noticed any other PBer but zoomster bootstrapping the “Greens are racist” schtick?

    RU agreeing with her?

  • 25
    womble
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    option for Labor – and I hope they don’t take it – is to adopt the Liberal policy but they would have to do it in full OR if the panel comes back and says no tow backs, leave them out

    kills boats as an issue, if one comes you say it’s their policy

    would be awful though, Nauru is just Christmas Island further away so not much of a change – TPV’s are evil things, tow backs crazy

    soften it a little by increasing numbers

    overall though they aren’t that far apart imo

    I could imagine people here being happy with that if Julia did it

  • 26
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    spur212 @ 20

    Kevin Rudd isn’t Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott

    And that also shows in polls.

  • 27
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    I CAN’T BELIEVE WE TALKING ABOUT RUDDERSTRATION AGAIN F U PB.

    It’s about to abuse with the Media and the Coalition.

    That’s all it will do!

    Let go of the past.

  • 28
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    You also got to remember too that there was an article out this week that said Turnbull won’t cancel NBN.
    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/we-will-not-cancel-the-nbn-turnbull-20120629-217f3.html

  • 29
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Pegasus @ 24

    Have u noticed any other PBer but zoomster bootstrapping the “Greens are racist” schtick?

    RU agreeing with her?

    The Greens are able to completely dissociate their actions from the consequences.

    The more boat people ‘self select’ and take positions out of the quota, the more desperate Africans miss out.

    The intention is the usual ‘feel good’ warm inner glow, but the effect is to discriminate against Africans.

  • 30
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    Where is GG?
    __________
    He told us that all would be right after July I…which I think he observes as the Feast of St Julia,..The Patron Saint of Lost Causes
    so when does the big uplift GG promised us occur ??

  • 31
    Pegasus
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    THE head of the US Senate's powerful intelligence oversight committee has renewed calls for Julian Assange to be prosecuted for espionage.

    The US Justice Department has also confirmed WikiLeaks remains the target of an ongoing criminal investigation, calling into question Australian government claims that the US has no interest in extraditing Mr Assange.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/us-senator-calls-to-prosecute-assange-20120701-21b3n.html#ixzz1zNQRbNJC

  • 32
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    He told us that all would be right after July I…

    Emmo better get that tape measure out, the sky might be falling after all!

  • 33
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Newman taking away from us QLDer’s:
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/newman-stamps-his-mark-20120630-219×3.html

  • 34
    Mick Collins
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Bemused

    It will come as a surprise to many that there is no ‘Carbon Tax’ deduction from their next pay and in fact their take home pay has increased.
    That offers some hope.

    Exactlly. The tripling of the Tax-Free-Threashold is something you cannot quantify until you see it in your pay check, when people see that their pay rises by $50.00 dollars a week, yet their expenses rise by only about $10.00 then it will slowly dawn on them that the hype was mostly overblown hysteria

  • 35
    Pegasus
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    The more boat people ‘self select’ and take positions out of the quota, the more desperate Africans miss out.

    Your opinion based on what evidence?

  • 36
    Pegasus
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Emmo better get that tape measure out, the sky might be falling after all!

    I missed the explanation on the news…what is the context of this?

  • 37
    rishane
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Exactlly. The tripling of the Tax-Free-Threashold is something you cannot quantify until you see it in your pay check, when people see that their pay rises by $50.00 dollars a week, yet their expenses rise by only about $10.00 then it will slowly dawn on them that the hype was mostly overblown hysteria

    I hope! Problem is that there are some very powerful people interested in keeping up the hype.

  • 38
    Thomas Paine.
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    I CAN’T BELIEVE WE TALKING ABOUT RUDDERSTRATION AGAIN F U PB.

    Wake the fuck up. 42/58

    Gillard will lead labor down to its greatest loss in history if she follows this path. And fuck wits are still saying it will be different just over the next hill…ad infinitum.

    Jeezu … I can understand the bizarre effect cultism has on people. I think a Jedi party would beat Gillard Labor at the end of the day.

  • 39
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    I missed the explanation on the news…what is the context of this?

    He did an Abbottesque stunt where he got the cameras to tape him measuring the sky with a tape measure to check that it wasn’t falling since the start of the carbon tax. A lot of laughter and joy which would have gone down a treat with the voters given how the carbon tax started and the worry people have about its effects on their jobs.

    Watching the ALP Ministers skylarking would have gone down like a lead balloon…just like the ALP TPP vote!

  • 40
    Mick Collins
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    The hardest thing for the Government to combat will not be “Carbon Pricing” that issue will be relatively benign come the election, it will be the perception that the PM “deceived” the electorate.
    RAbbott cannot keep up the rhetoric on CP, but he can on “Julia Lied”.

  • 41
    Thomas Paine.
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    People will get pay increases, then promptly forget about them. But every time they pay a bill that they think is more expensive they will blame the Carbon Tax.

  • 42
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Pegasus @ 35

    bemused

    The more boat people ‘self select’ and take positions out of the quota, the more desperate Africans miss out.

    Your opinion based on what evidence?

    A quota is a fixed number. If one component increases, one or more others must decrease.
    Arithmetic logic. Another Green weak point.

  • 43
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    I CAN’T BELIEVE WE TALKING ABOUT RUDDERSTRATION AGAIN F U PB.

    You can set your watch by it.

  • 44
    Pegasus
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib,

    Ta for the explanation.

    Agree, denigration and mocking a person’s deeply held insecurities and fears isn’t the way to win the hearts and minds of ‘wavering’ voters.

  • 45
    Mick Collins
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Yes Yes, we all know your angst at having a female PM TP

  • 46
    Pegasus
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    bemused,

    Are quotas and their composition fixed in stone never to be altered when circumstances change?

  • 47
    Mick Collins
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    People will get pay increases, then promptly forget about them. But every time they pay a bill that they think is more expensive they will blame the Carbon Tax.

    Not if they don’t think that they are worse off. Thats economics 101

  • 48
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    @TP/38

    F U, U WAKE THE FUCK UP.

    IF THEY CHANGE TO RUDD, HELL BREAKS LOOSE AND OPPS AND MEDIA WILL HAVE A FIELD DAY FOR THE REST TILL AFTER THE ELECTION.

  • 49
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Apr-Jun Quarterly Primary Votes: ALP 30 (-2) L/NP 47 (+2) GRN 12 (+1)

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Apr-Jun Quarterly 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 (-2) L/NP 56 (+2) #auspol

  • 50
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    42/58 – 44/56 with a primary vote at around 30-31% 15 months away from an election.

    No political leader has enough political capital to survive that.

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