Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
My advice is don’t watch it…
by Mod Lib on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:35 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
Selamat Datang & Selamat Makan to SBY
by The Finnigans on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:35 pm
oh I’m familar with you all – I have been reading Pollbludger since its foundation! I have jy heroes (including you btw) and some I loathe ( hi Evan and TP) but I took that old wisdom to heart about it better to be silent than thought a fool I guess and its mostly all can do to just read.
Will try harder but dinner calls
by Just Saying’ on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Superb.
by joe2 on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Despite failing at the Victorian and Qld elections, and failing to live up to hype in NSW, I have a feeling the Greens would never declare themselves “depressed”, Mod Lib.
by confessions on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Just Saying’
Welcome, we need some new blood. Glad you made the transition from lurker to poster!
by Space Kidette on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Just watched Channel 7 news and I have come to the conclusion that Labor is screwed. Totally, utterly and absolutely screwed. The coverage was completely hysterical with reports of an air conditioning firm putting up their prices by a lazy 300%, among others. Total bullshit of course but unchallenged and presented as fact. That’s going to happen every day until they get their election and the change in government they have been screaming for for five years.
The reportage will be what has been for years. Anti ALP. Anti Rudd. Anti Gillard. Tony good. Tony great. Tony greatest. Of course, the other two things they spoke of were leadership (of course) and Emerson making an utter goat of himself. Does anyone seriously think they will let that one go? The reporting that case was actually genuine.
As for these mythical fines and butchers and bakers and florists playing up, nothing will come of it. In 90% of the cases, said butchers, bakers and florists will simply put up their prices, blame it on the carbon tax and get paid. Some will go elsewhere but Australians being the lazy slobs they are, will just pay it, hinge about it and grind the image of Labor further into the dirt – at least in their tiny minds. So an unintended by-product will be even greater inflation than planned for with the “pricing”.
Anyone here who thinks the media are going to play a straight bat is delusional. Certifiably delusional. Away with the dolphins. And it is never, ever going to change. Not unless Gina waddles into one of the ALP branches spruiked here and signs up, anyway. I have said here a couple of times that the message in the media and the polls is that people want the ALP gone. Kaput. Why people can’t see that is beyond me. I’m just glad that I will be in a position to put my feet up and to watch the cretinous population of Australia get reamed and scraped. Particularly those Queenslanders. Apparently 65% of them are very pleased with themselves. Plonkers…
by Roy Orbison on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Just Sayin’:
We were all new at some stage.
My advice is to throw caution to the wind and just jump in!!
by confessions on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Hahahahah……….JoHo in a keg room at pub….”refridgeration up and and gas too”
Dickhead………..put in beer pumps and gas costs drop by by about 60% over a year!!
by Last name red wombat on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:40 pm
it better to be silent than thought a fool I guess and its mostly all can do to just read.
Gee JUST SAYING
dont be hard on yourself look me
Left school at 15 and half and it shows
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:40 pm
…slightly miffed I didn’t get a mention in the loathe column….what does one have to do?????
by Mod Lib on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Just Saying
The conversation moves very fast on here, as you have gathered. Sometimes the person (people) who appreciate your post may not read it until 2 hours later and may just think “well said” and not feel the need to answer.
When I first started posting I felt ignored when no one seemed to pick up on what I said, but I got used to that, and now I reckon if a post of mine is acknowledged by one person, I’ve done well! When I put in a link I don’t fret if it’s not acknowledged because I know that a lurker somewhere may find amusing/useful so I’m adding to the general info stream of PB.
It’s only the argumentative/provocative types who are answered every time – which is probably what they’re fishing for
by lizzie on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Mod Lib
Emo has a wonderful sense of humour and always relates events to songs or music much like PBer’s Poroti.
by Dee on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Fran @1065,
As well as the incredibly long term effect of our emissions, I think that most predictions, including the IPCC and Garnaut, don’t take into account possible tipping points.
At some point the melting of the ice on Greenland may become unstoppable (huge sea level rise), or methane stored by being under sea grasses or locked in the Russian tundra may start to be emitted (huge ‘natural’ boost to the CO2 in the atmosphere).
The leaders of 300 years ago are pretty much forgotten except for history buffs. I expect that Australians in 300 years time will know of Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Wong, Combet, Abbott, etc, and cursed will be their names.
by Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH) on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:43 pm
In spite of all the doom and gloom about carbon ,carbon tax,etc, life goes on. I bought a big diesel guzzling truck today to service a new contract and neither myself nor the truck vendor and my new client gave the carbon debate much thought.l
by Joe6pack on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Just saw the Emerson performance. It’s OK & gets the message out, no big deal. Much better to look at than Sophie Mirabella who also featured in the news story I just watched.
by BSA Bob on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Just Saying – many of us don’t get time to post before the subject moves on but like to get snippets of what has gone before. Just post what you want to cos we all catch up at some time and will see it. Cheers
by BH on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Roy we knowwe know,
We u derstand , we know all those paragraphs offyour chest feel better
I wantedtos ream this morning but over it now
But hope springs eternal that t peope are not tbat stupid in the end
New media laws willhelp
Ok who writes tbe newsscripts i wonder the news reader does not
But i find
myself dis liking tbe news reader,
Love to know tbe names and faces whi write te scripts
Any one/ know
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Emmo was singing his version of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7l8rlnMpCI
by This little black duck on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:49 pm
A bit harsh if you don,t live here and don,t understand all the issues that went into labors downfall in QLD.
by Joe6pack on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:49 pm
J6P:
I hope you are well.
Today filling up the car with fuel, at the next bowser was a contractor filling up his bobcat on the back of his truck, which cost him $152. The service station attendant (no self service in my town – love it!) made some crack about the carbon tax, to which the contractor jumped down off the back of the truck, looked him in the eye and said (wtte) ‘are you saying you’re putting your prices up because of the carbon tax when oil prices are going down?’
The conversation was overheard by the owner who was filling my car, and he was very quick to say no, no price carbon tax price rise here. The attendant slunk off after a glare from the boss.
by confessions on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:50 pm
FB @ 1054
Scarily accurate.
by poroti on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Had a similar conversation today with my mother. We both agreed that if the polls are to be believed then Australians deserve to be run through by a dose of Rabbott salts.
I cannot remember the poster, ‘Sorry’ but I also agree with them on voting mentality in Australia.
Voters only turn to Labor in times of pain, usually inflicted by the Coalition.
by Dee on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:51 pm
This is what I find difficult about Turnbull. He said previously that the DAP was a heap of junk and designed so that Abbott could be dropped like a hot cake once in Govt. From his speech last night
[Mr Turnbull said those parties currently attacking the Labor Party for its carbon tax would also attack the Coalition if it tried to implement its plan to reduce emissions.
"If we form a government and then seek to meet that 5 per cent target [by 2020] through purchases of carbon offsets from farmers and payments to polluting industry to cut their emissions, the opponents of the science of climate change will be criticising that expenditure as pointless and wasteful with as much vehemence as they are currently denouncing Julia Gillard’s carbon tax,” he said.]
by BH on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Posted Monday, July 2, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Permalink
In spite of all the doom and gloom about carbon ,carbon tax,etc, life goes on. I bought a big diesel guzzling truck today to service a new contract and neither myself nor the truck vendor and my new client gave the carbon debate much thought.l
JOE v ery good business decision , there was your chance tosay so mething about diesel
Nd tne carbon price
Bought a diesel car does 800 to the tank
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:51 pm
MUST READ:
by Space Kidette on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:52 pm
I remember discussing politics a few weeks ago with an ordinary Liberal leaning voter. 4 major points were raised:
1. The carbon tax was a huge tax far greater than the GST.
2. Julia Gillard is a liar for saying she would not introduce a carbon tax before the election.
3. The compensation given to consumers for the carbon tax would be insufficient.
4. The Liberal Party had stopped the boats.
I hope that people will have the commonsense to judge points 1. and 3. for themselves.
Points 2. and 4. has got to be fixed!
Rotten Greens
by Centre on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Turnbull did give a serve to the deniers so here’s the link
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-22/turnbull-climate-speech/2805536
by BH on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:53 pm
This little black duck
The Skyhooks song he really wanted to sing is
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4Uf8bLl6yU
by poroti on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:54 pm
My Say,
Thanks for the feedback. However, I hate to break this to you. There will be no new media laws. Just because someone here says it doesn’t mean it will happen. It shouldn’t have escaped you that this is one of the very reasons that the media is so hostile to Labor. Unless there is a miracle, Labor is going to get slaughtered in the next election – 40/60 could mean around 10-15 seats. It happened in NSW and it happened in Queensland and there hasn’t been a shred of buyers’ remorse (did I get that apostrophe right, Fran?). I can guarantee you that Abbott won’t be doing anything to jeopardise the relationship the Libs have with News, Fairfax, TV, radio and the ABC. Not going to happen.
And yes, people are that stupid. Really stupid. And vicious. Ask any ex ALP voter and I promise you they will tell you it started with boat people.
by Roy Orbison on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:55 pm
It is in Gillard’s best interests to wait until it is too late, less her replacement perform well and show her to be the problem and the major mistake.
But actually think is too late now. Labor have well and truly shat in their nest through incompetent leadership/communication. Rudd was in fact far far better, and more importantly the public wanted to listen to him.
Too late, best thing to do is ensure the Coalition don’t get too much advantage.
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:55 pm
ck of his truck, which cost him $152. The service station attendant (no self service in my t
Me too connie, but have pick and chose i go to our regular who stilll serves u
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:55 pm
confessions
I am very well ty.
I think the fuel companies arn,t stupid enough to blame any increase on the carbon tax as they will be one of the most closely monitored organisations. Saying that, they put prices up and down to suit themselves all the time anyway so they don,t need a excuse.
by Joe6pack on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Yes that is right. They wont look at Europe, Asia and North America as being of any significance. It was Australia not getting it right that bought the whole world down.
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 2, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Centre,
It seems to me that Labor is attacking the Greens for the asylum non-progress so violently partly because they cannot say publicly that if it was not for the Greens then Labor would not have put a price on carbon.
I’ve long maintained, and I believe the evidence backs me up, that Labor have never intended to take real action on climate change.
We only have action (only good if it is a first step) because it was the price the Greens demand for supporting Gillard in the lower house. So Gillard’s big lie is that the carbon tax is the solution to climate change.
by Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH) on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Ruddwatch is in and I’m out!
by zoidlord on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:00 pm
joe6pack – Well done. You should ring Ch7 and say you want your truck on the news and tell them the carbon price didn’t stop you buying it.
I’d rather see positive stories like yours. Perhaps I’m lucky that we can’t get FTA reception.
by BH on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:02 pm
zoidlord
Just avert your eyes and you will be OK
by poroti on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Thomas @1133,
I doubt that the rest of world will blame Australia (though, now I come to think about it, we really should be up their with the USA for blame).
But I do think it appropriate for future Australian’s to ask what their past leaders did. So cursed be our leaders, but mainly by future Australians.
by Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH) on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Bludgers you may be right about the media’s coverage of the carbon tax, but you were not complaining when the shoe was on the other foot and the media was doing the exact same thing to the coalition over the introduction of the GST.
This is how politics works in this country. Putting your energy into trying to get the media to give better coverage, or into trying to get your political opponents to be less opportunistic and dishonest, or into trying to get the public to be less stupid is a waste of time and energy.
A successful politician accepts the system as it is and devises a strategy to use that system to their advantage. And the system CAN be used to the advantage of the centre-left. It just takes a leader with a certain set of skills and abilities. Unfortunately for Labor that leader is lacking. But blaming the rest of the world for that isn’t going to help.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:05 pm
From memory the two strongest points against the CPRS from the Greens were their non negotiable demands for CO2 reductions of no less than 25% and that petrol was to be included.
It cost Labor one leader in Kevin Rudd. It can’t cost the Party another.
Labor should put the Greens LAST on their how to vote cards.
by Centre on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:05 pm
I think in 300 years time the documentary shown on the History channel will mention
The European finance problems
Obama
Middle East – Egypt & Syria
Rise of China
Climate Change will be a mare footnote if mentioned at all.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:05 pm
J6P:
The ACCC is also going to crack down on rorters. The next few months will be interesting.
by confessions on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Labor has had a policy to price carbon emissions since 2006/7. That never changed.
by confessions on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:07 pm
@M/1134
Actually they been attacking both Greens and Coalition on AS issue.
Oakshott Bill was meant to be circuit breaker between the AS-WAR.
Unfortunately The 150 idiot MP’s act like little children who all should be tossed out.
by zoidlord on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)
Posted Monday, July 2, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Hi, I am interested to know what the greens position would have been if labor had have said no.
What would they have done? Labor says no, Libs says no, what could they do?
by Joe6pack on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Centre, From memory Labor never negotiated with the Greens on the CPRS.
And from reading Crikey it is clear that the locked-in Labor faithful still have no idea of why the Greens voted against the CRPS.
I’ll give you a clue – what did the Greens mean by “locked in failure”?
by Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH) on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:08 pm
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:09 pm
n Posted Monday, July 2, 2012 at 6:55 pm | Permalink
My Say, Thanks for the feedback. However, I hate to break this
Well ifyou look at tbe break down of figures , you will see
Its w a and yes qld
Now qlders if tneir brains click on , will realise havi g another lnp gov will nearly wipe them off them off map
Yes the tv news in some channells disgusti g but they can not talk abo ut tbe carbon price
E ery night, this po,icy is tbe last hard one, if tbe mining tax goes to court yes on tne news
But tbats diccere t people now seem to agree with that one,
The g st from memory was similar, . No one wanted that,howard spent heaps on that horrid add re chains i hated that add. Small shop owners angry , new tiills to be bought
Heaps day before shops sold out.
How stupid where we, the difference may be tbe media, u know never ever the gst
Was t
That discussed dont t know
But new po,icies will dawn this yeat that will not be conflicting, thi gs to help more
Lets hope, hopefully things that media cannot find fault with
Any one agree
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:09 pm
The Greens voted no because they wanted a higher target, with no assistance to those industries that pollute
Basically the Greens wanted the Government to say a big stuff up to the La Trobe, Hunter, Illawarra, Gladstone and the other regions of Australia that don’t suit the Greens lifestyle choices.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 2, 2012 at 7:11 pm