Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
B K – give Mirrabella a miss. She didn’t cover herself in glory when Simon S fell ill. She looked as tho he was going to give her a dose of something
http://twitpic.com/a31iy7
by BH on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Cracking performance from Combet on Q and A. Mirabella had nothing to say.
Too bad nobody sees it.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Mick Collins 1564
_____________
I have no information…nor do you ..on how Liberal voters in Melb will vote in the absence of a Lib on the ballot paper
Going on their hostility to Labor re carbon tax at the moment ..even in state election..I doubt many will vote ALP
Morgan says that many will vote for Stephen Mayne..who says he will preferemce the Greens…that is all we can know..and a handy” bridge “for the Lib voters
The polls say Mayne will get 7-8 %
Make of that what you will…
Your rosy optimism isn’t shared by the Labor candidate from what I hear …
we’ll soon know
by deblonay on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm
You don’t need medical training to know that unconscious people should not be left in that position.
by This little black duck on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm
This Little Black Duck,
Of course you know that the Paris-Roubaix cycle classic is predominantly over the old cobblestones and is great fun to watch as a result. The riders see it as a bit of a challenge too.
by C@tmomma on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm
More importantly Simon appears to be okay which I think is more important than how certain pollies reacted.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Bemused,
We need them to hold on in tas for a while
I wrote to nick mckim
And ask him if he was distancing himself from his feds
I quite like him ,
Something different about him i t h i n k. Hope i am right
Never heard back did not expect to at least he knows
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Time to give Morpheus a cuddle. Good night, all.
by Boerwar on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm
I seem to recall a newspaper having something to say on the matter.
by William Bowe on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Sophie looked disgusted with Simon. Perhaps she thought it was a stunt.
by Dee on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Victoria – I’ll wait for that one to play out in court, we don’t have her side of the story yet , she does seem to have questions to answer though
overall – it’s a hell of a lot better when people play the ball not the player imo
by womble on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Lenore has put Abbott on notice that she will scrutinise his figures before the next election.
by BK on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Little Black Duck, Very true, the only action anyone should have taken was to ensure that the airways were clear and that is done by tilting the head back.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:50 pm
And anyone bagging Mirabella for her “reaction” to Simon fainting needs to cease. You can’t judge someone’s reaction to an incident like that. I don’t know how I would have reacted.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:51 pm
gloryconsequence Posted Monday, July 2, 2012 at 10:48 pm | Permalink
Cracking performance from Combet on Q and A. Mirabella had nothing to say.
Too bad nobody sees it.
Well last i read 800 th watched it when julia was on
Words spreads people educate each other , do t be so negative
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:51 pm
mexicanbeemer @ 1596
Well I have handled exactly that sort of situation when I was driving by a man who collapsed. My last medical (first aid) training was about 40 years ago.
I have also had to perform CPR.
If something happens you jump in and do what you can.
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:52 pm
C@tmomma,
There are challenges and there are challenges. Then there are sore bums and legs; not to mention the relocation of various internal organs.
by This little black duck on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:52 pm
bemused
I am agreeing with you a lot lately!!! What is going on?
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:53 pm
I present sophie’s finest photo of tonight.
http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2012/07/02/1226415/089391-simon-sheikh.jpg
by rummel on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:53 pm
e Posted Monday, July 2, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
Sophie looked disgusted with Simon. Perhaps she thought it was a stunt.
Yes dee she is so used to tone stunts that would be why
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:54 pm
A lot of people were on the twitter stream for QandA. So I expect a lot more were watching passively.
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Graeme Morris defending Steve Lewis as a fine journalist sums it up.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:54 pm
A very steely-eyed Combet said that he was very much looking forward to the outcome of the Ashby/Lewis court case.
by BK on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Ducky,
I failed!
by Space Kidette on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Bemused 1593 on this we are in furious agreement.
by Rossmore on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm
I said in the Satuday Weekend article on Mirabella that she lacks basic human empathy.
If you didn’t understand what I meant then, you know now!!
by zoomster on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm
BK
As am I. You know how impatient I have been.
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Glory
I think she thought at first it was a stunt judging by the look on her face.
by Dee on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Garnaut refusing to talk about Abbott Direct Action Plan.
Still managing to slam it as more expensive option.
Lateline
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm
zoomster
I dont know Mirabella personally, but I have observed enough of her to know she is a nasty piece of work
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Spacey,
There’s always next week. iTroll should be worth a good tweet or two, or three.
by This little black duck on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm
I wonder whether our pollies get resuscitation training?
Everyone should get it, you can arrange it through St John’s ambulance, so it would make sense for pollies to be up to date.
Just saying…
by Mod Lib on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Conservatives will not vote Green, pure and simple.
It’s not rocket science, even for someone stuck in the campus politics of the 70′s.
Even the few conservatives that might vote Mayne will still preference the ALP.
Oh, and the vote will have nothing to do with Federal issues. Its simplistic nonesense to pretend otherwise
by Mick Collins on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm
The political player was shown up on Q&A tonight because when she was put on the spot (surprisingly by Tony Jones) and had to move away from the usual slogans, Mirrabella absolutely fumbled. Abbott does the same so it’s no wonder he walks away from pressers when they get hard.
Combet was much superior all round and Lenore Taylor was more than fair in all her comments.
by BH on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm
victoria @ 1617
I don’t know victoria, what are you agreeing with now?
Accepting the return of Kev?
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:57 pm
my say
Spot on.
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Those pictures should be plastered all over the place. I’m sure twitter is on to it.
by This little black duck on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:57 pm
You’ve got to admit the comment that there wasn’t a will on the table was the reason for her indifference was pretty funny.
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Combet is a thoroughly decent man.
by BK on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Mick
I do not agree. However we will see. If you are right Labor will win the by election.
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:58 pm
I hope that photo was taken right when it happen and that was Sophie first response and that she then at least tapped Tony on the shoulder or moved to ensure Simon was okay and if possible clear the airways. if not then that is poor form
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:58 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:58 pm
bemused
Re your comments at 1615.
Vote 1 Combet for me
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Zoomster – I saw exactly what you meant tonight. Even as they were leading Sheik out Mirrabella had a look of disdain on her face. Combet was all concern. Superman.
by BH on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm
BK
Did you get the feeling there is a lot more, other than what he mentioned was available via the website?
by Dee on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm
It’s good to see Direct Action is being looked at more closely – will be great watching it unravel
If you’re going to take action on climate change why not use a simple tax….
or words to that effect
by womble on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Combet has gravitas and credibility. He also has a wicked sense of humour but tonight wasn’t the night to show it. A real Labor man.
by Rossmore on Jul 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Sorry all you guys,
I think you have all found a pretty girl and fallen hard. Lenore is a professional fence sitter.
by Space Kidette on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Labor will not win “support” for the carbon tax. People never “supported” the GST – they just felt that Howard’s overall proposal was better than Beazley’s promise to repeal it.
Labor need to switch their strategy to Abbott’s Direct Action. Now. They won’t “sell the carbon tax” so that all of a sudden people support it. They need to expose Direct Action as a worse alternative. Doesn’t help with the media not doing their job, but MPs need to repeat it.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:00 pm