Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Ugh, more dodgy NSW news: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/no-limit-to-state-jobs-cleanout-20120702-21dex.html
by rishane on Jul 3, 2012 at 12:58 am
Labor is totally fucked. It couldn’t be more rooted than it is now.
Yet people such as you want the issue of leadership not talked about, even when Labor has rooted in the polls for ages and the leader given mobs of time to show that she can turn it around, with zero success.
If the leadership is not a valid issue of discussion now one wonders when in your mind it would be. I suspect you will allow it to be a valid topic of discussion when Abbott is PM.
It is beyond belief that anybody could think ‘don’t mention the leadership’ when it is probably the most important issue facing Labor right NOW.
I can guarantee with you and your kind that even if the polls were 20/80 for the past 12 months you would STILL be saying the same crap.
And KRAP would most likely thrash the living daylights out of GALP.
I wouldn’t be so proud of caucus votes you quote. All that is representative of is the current choice of the factional mafia bosses of which gillard is the toy, and sit in the PM’s chair simply because she best protects their power.
It is supporters like you with the church of Gillardtology that is destroying Labor.
Jeezu, bring on K.R.A.P anything would be better than the crap served up now.
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 3, 2012 at 12:58 am
The leadership is a valid issue for discussion.
Whether it can be said to warrant being discussed for anywhere between 6-18 hours everyday is a separate question.
by Burgey on Jul 3, 2012 at 1:42 am
Agreed. And i would add that maybe, it shouldn’t become the focus at the slightest provocation as it has been?
by imacca on Jul 3, 2012 at 1:47 am
For Kevin, the peoples princess
I love the ground under his feet, and the air over his head, and everything he touches and every word he says. I love all his looks, and all his actions and him entirely and all together.
We love you Kevin Rudd
-ShowsOn
-Thomas Paine.
-Thornleigh Labor Man
by Seasprite on Jul 3, 2012 at 2:00 am
@1755
I see ShowsOn more as a pragmatist than an idolator. Shit!, I’ve done it now….
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 2:03 am
WE LUVS YA TOO, SHOWS. Sh!te, I’ve done it now…
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 3, 2012 at 2:09 am
SEASPRITE EATS SNAILS AND ENJOYS IT!
by ShowsOn on Jul 3, 2012 at 2:20 am
IMO this has been the comment of the evening so far…
@1557 C@tmomma
A ‘Unicorn Utopia’. Filing that one away.
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 2:26 am
Tory Shepherd in the Adelaide Advertiser
Never thought I’d hear it from a Tory.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/shepherd-dodgy-reasons-for-opposing-the-carbon-tax/story-fn34ojzj-1226415009684
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 2:38 am
I know I’m feverish from the flu, and Sudafeded to the max, but I think something has interfered with the confluence of the Universes today.
There is not a single anti Labor article highlighted on the SMH front Web page, Gerard Henderson has an article up that I completely agree with re that daffodil Assange, and there is not one mention of the carbon price or “tax”.
Yes I know it’s a schimera of my fevered state of confusion, but I’ll take it as window of what might be in another world far, far away.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 3, 2012 at 3:59 am
I went down Bob’s track today to get to Boranup beach on Hamelin Bay and really, while you are doing that and catching a big Salmon in the surf I pity those who don’t.
I was hoping for a Tailor though.
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 4:12 am
http://www.westernadvocate.com.au/news/local/news/general/cobb-vows-to-axe-carbon-tax/2610815.aspx
Have Put this on file and await to see the back pedal before the election.
by Schnappi on Jul 3, 2012 at 5:08 am
my Say you may hever read this, it being posted so early, but no, I mean you can get a case for your ipad that has a keyboard built in, so you can sit in your lounge chair and type. it connects to your ipad vua bluetooth
by Just Saying’ on Jul 3, 2012 at 5:25 am
Puff at 1205
Well as it happens I agree; Abbott should ge staked out over an ant nest and I would pay all of my carbon compensation and that of many fellow Australians to watch
by Just Saying’ on Jul 3, 2012 at 5:29 am
@justsaying’ like the way things are????
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 5:54 am
I don’t think this furthers the cause. Please have a bit of a think.
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:18 am
Yes, it brings out the Keane observation that Labor is doing well at the policy level but not the politics. The coalition are working the politics well but not policy.
It does confirm my view that Stockdale had ventured out of hyperbole into standup comedy when he claimed that every single coalition frontbencher had outperformed their government ministerial counterpart.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:19 am
As the current voting system coerces an effective preference for one of the major parties on on pain of rendering the vote informal*, there is no place for those Greens (or anyone else currently effectively preferencing the ALP) wanting to ensure their vote is counted but to the parties of the coalition.
I suspect many would simply accept informal voting, as I have, since preferencing the coalition is unthinkable for most of us.
* exceptions would be Denison, New England (provided Windsor doesn’t retire), Lyne (provided Oakeshott stands), Melbourne …
by Fran Barlow on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:41 am
grey, years ago we used to go to the big overhanging rock at the end of Cosy Corner, near Augusta.
As well as fishing all night we would bring a crab net a long pole with a groove at the end, and a lot of rope.
We would bait the net, drop it off the rock at the end of the pole, and pull it up every twenty minutes or so.
We caught heaps of crays in the deep cold water, usually ten or twelve each night, including a few big southerners weighing in at three to four kilos.
Those were the days …
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:43 am
Sure picked a bad day to give up glue siffing.
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:44 am
ABC reporting that Simon Sheikh had a combination of influenza and overwork as causes for his collapse.
by shellbell on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:48 am
Just Saying
Bought one for $39.95 free deliverry, problem does not work.
by Schnappi on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:50 am
I wonder who those in labor gave emerson the go ahead to do that song and dance
because it was a brilliant move
overnight people couldnt stop talking about how they didnt know abbott claim the lies about the roast and whyalla, rscpca
If emerson didnt do what he did , the media wouldnt have focus on his press conference and people wouldnt have watched it in full
Emerson may have woken up people
by Meguire Bob on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:51 am
Good morning all.
This photo says it all about the delightful Sophie.
https://twitter.com/mariekehardy/status/219761755264516096/photo/1
It deserves the caption ‘Hope it’s not catching!’
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:52 am
Media coverage of the issues is gradually improving. It is a slow process but as Combet has said, it’s very hard to keep up the hyperbole against the evidence.
Last night Grey listed an example from an erstwhile right-winger on The Advertiser. There’s no magical turnaround, but once it dawns on people that the opposition campaign is full of sh-t, it will lead to a more realistic attitude.
A politically damaged government committed to doing the right thing and still delivering on the key economic factors of growth, low inflation, low interest rates and low unemployment beats the hell out of the alternative of slogans.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:54 am
I hink thats why Evan last night was wailing and gnashing his teeth about it, Bob.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:54 am
Bugger Fulvio, Fran picked that moment..
I’ve fished Cosy Corner and elephant rock, hooked something there that just breezed me, too much power., I live near Margs, (struggletown) and often get out to the spots, and hey!, you are right, we use a Hawke cat to drop the pots, heaps more stable than a tinny. As we grow older risk taking is less but it is always worth it. No point otherwise.
You are more than welcome down here should you wish to have a fish.
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:56 am
yeah Fulvio @ 1776
i agree
Emerson got his message through about the lies of the carbon price
And the lies about $100 for a roast and prices going to be that high
points out the stupid comment about whyalla, and the other places which were going to be gone on july 1
People had to listen to those comments
by Meguire Bob on Jul 3, 2012 at 6:58 am
I got the Belkin one for $99 and it works well
by Just Saying’ on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:00 am
Reporting on spin:
1. Emma Alberici on Lateline — Her conversation with Ross Garnaut. Alberici ((repeatedly) Carbon Tax) ; Garnaut ((repeatedly) Carbon Pricing)
2. Newsradio, Emma Chillingerian (sp?): “Mixed reaction on carbon tax)” from “most businesses either thought it wouldn’t affect them much or weren’t sure”. Hmmm
by Fran Barlow on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:03 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-03/priests-failed-to-pass-on-sexual-assault-admission-to-police/4106100
have to agree with Rupert when he tweets there is something creepy even evil about these people.
by castle on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:10 am
All I am saying is that we are not vegetarians.
No spin there.
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:11 am
This photo says it all about the delightful Sophie.
https://twitter.com/mariekehardy/status/219761755264516096/photo/1
Assessing him for her backyard shed.
by castle on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:11 am
castle:
He ain’t old enough.
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:12 am
but he is vulnerable
by castle on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:15 am
morning bludgers
a lot of catching up to do – out last night will have to watch q & a on iview – great work by bob carr to facilitate the release of melinda taylor – fran kelly interviewing her mum tried hard to get her to criticise carr… typical. imo bob carr is the best fm we have ever had.
by Lyne Lady on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:17 am
Today show gave a big thumbs up to Emmo’s song, aussies love nothing more than a bloke trying to sing knowing he can’t sing but having a go and bonus was he got the message out about Tone’s scare campaign about Whyalla being wiped off the map.
by castle on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:22 am
Hang out with the PM, for those who might want to.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/want-to-hang-out-with-the-prime-minister-heres-how-20120630-219g5.html
by Schnappi on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:25 am
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/at-impasse.html#comment-form
PBers (including myself) have noticed this of Abbott since the leadership challenge. He is also sounding whinier and looking older. The unhinged behaviour (running from parliament for eg) only exaccerbates this.
I’ve said previously that if recent history is any guide, Abbott will be replaced in December this year. If Elder is right that the momentum is with the govt, and that Abbott is being slowly ground down, it will most certainly happen. Bring it on I say. I can’t wait to see him toppled.
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:27 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
This is not a good look.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-03/glaxosmithkline-fined-over-healthcare-fraud/4106096
The highlight of the 4C program was the pontificating squirming of Pell.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-03/glaxosmithkline-fined-over-healthcare-fraud/4106096
As usual Peter Martin writes an article fully based on facts. And he calls himself a journalist!!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pay-rises-tax-cuts-from-today-20120701-21axw.html
Katherine Murphy with a reasonable contribution.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-tries-to-play-with-abbotts-mind-20120701-21aw9.html
A very funny David Pope cartoon.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg on the current standing of politicians.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Mary-Jo’s woes deepen.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/mary-jos-legal-team-demands-payment/story-e6frea6u-1226415029012
The Adelaide Advertiser’s Tory Shepherd will cop a hell of a pasting from the shockjocks’ audience over this. She often comes up with good, progressive articles.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/shepherd-dodgy-reasons-for-opposing-the-carbon-tax/story-fn34ojzj-1226415009684
A very clever David Rowe effort.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
by BK on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:28 am
I thought she was found guilty, but a conviction wasn’t recorded?
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:32 am
just watching q & a on iview – no wonder poor old simon almost passed out – having to sit next to sophie would make anyone violently ill.
by Lyne Lady on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:32 am
fran interviewing herself on breakfast right now!!!
by Lyne Lady on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:35 am
Think today is d day for clive and brough to nominate for lilley and fisher.
by Schnappi on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:40 am
Confessions
That is my recollection but sometimes the court can find an offence is proven without any reference to guilt and then not convict.
by shellbell on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:41 am
Jeez, what a stunning wrap for Bob Carr from that lawyer’s mum on RN just now. Saying everything he did was perfect and she couldn’t thank him enough for going to Libya himself and getting her out.
Well done him.
by Burgey on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:42 am
And from the Land of the Free -
Don’t you just LOVE those compassionate Repug Governors!
http://www.americablog.com/2012/07/floridas-gop-governor-to-refuse.html
Orange Man Boehner makes it even more odious.
http://occupyamerica.crooksandliars.com/diane-sweet/speaker-boehner-refuses-cover-people-p
Rupert Murdoch on the case of Scientology and Time Cruise. Could be interesting.
http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/rupert-murdoch-war-scientogolists-weird
A lone judicial voice in Misssissippi. He won;t last long!
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/judge-issues-temporary-restraining-or
by BK on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:43 am
shellbell:
It also could’ve been that she was found guilty of assault but not for stealing the groceries. I distinctly recall the reporting at the time being a guilty finding, but no conviction recorded.
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:43 am
She was stealing sardines for ShowsOn, I thought everybody knew that.
The ones in sild salad oil not the springwater ones.
by grey on Jul 3, 2012 at 7:44 am