Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Bemused
I will keep a copy of this, and throw it back in you face in the near future, governments of all descriptions have had the same polling figures MID TERM, and recovered to win the next term!.
by 1934pc on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:03 am
Lots of people respond exactly as Sophie did when a medical emergency happens. Not many are as good as Combet though.
The medical care was terrible BTW. He should have been laid down. Sitting him up or walking him around was worse than doing nothing.
by Diogenes on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:05 am
A couple of years ago a guy at a restaurant in our good town died of a heart attack in a restaurant during peak dinner time. He was on the floor next to the table. In those circumstances would you:
(1) keep eating?
(2) stop eating but stay?
(3) leave?
(4) complain about the delays in the service?
(5) worry about how the bill would be split?
by Boerwar on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:10 am
Our little kitten had a seizure on Sunday night – now ok.
Interesting in terms of reaction of family. My oldest was inconsolable especially when our little kitten had to stay overnight. Next down looked at other hospitalised pets to help inform any decision about a replacement if the need arose.
Youngest saw opportunity to play computer games while others were distracted.
by shellbell on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:13 am
by gloryconsequence on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:13 am
I thought that October would be the ideal time to switch to Rudd.
After the last couple of days, I now think the ideal time would be sooner.
I’m partly swayed by Mumble’s comment this morning
by spur212 on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:14 am
New York has around 450 ‘cooling centres’ open. If you don’t have aircon you can go and get cool and not die of the heat.
These places must be saving thousands of lives atm, so a good public health response.
by Boerwar on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:16 am
boerwar
None of the above. I would recoil in horror and push the man away from me
by victoria on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:17 am
All I’ll say about the Sophie Mirabella incident on Q&A last night is that I just got handed my arsk in a sling by my 18yo who chided me for making a snarky comment about Mrs Mirabella’s reaction to Simon Sheikh collapsing onto the desk.
Basically, he pointed out to me in no uncertain terms that I can’t say anything about her reaction because how would I have reacted in the same situation?
Which I had to admit that, even though I was in the medical area of employment myself, I made the conscious decision to not apply for Medicine for the exact reason that I quail at the sight of blood and human damage. Or was not of a mind to cause any by way of surgery.
Even in my chosen field of Pharmacy(nothing much exciting happens there
), on the odd occasion someone did collapse in the shop and needed attention, it usually was one of the girls who jumped in to do the First Aid thing, my feet generally ended up being frozen to the spot in horror. I also feared that what I may do may make matters worse not better. Even though I had done a First Aid course for a Semester at Uni.
Still, I do think Mrs Mirabella’s face said ‘Distaste’ rather than ‘Concern’ or ‘Shock’.
by C@tmomma on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:17 am
spur. there is always a third way…. you need to open your mind to other opportunities.
by middle man on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:17 am
The bagging of Mirabella is pretty low IMO.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:18 am
My wife, in laws and I all went to an engagement party years ago.
As we approached there was the blaring of sirens and when we turned into the street there were ambulances outside the engagement house where the balcony had collapsed.
Fortunately most serious injury was a fractured pelvis.
Hosts insisted we stay while 1/2 a dozen guests were transported away. We did – I even got a bit tipsy.
A news helicopter buzzed over to which we all raised our glasses. Cue headline in Sunday rag next day:
“Revellers make merry while guests in hospital”
by shellbell on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:18 am
poroti – that is why I think Gillard is an honest person and is policy driven and not politically astute as PM. Abbott would have laughed and said ‘good idea’ but Julia just told Darwin (huge beer consumption) that she and Tim are not the same as Darwinians – don’t drink beer much.
Her honesty came first – political saving second.
by BH on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:19 am
PC1934 You need to acknowledge that your “SIX people in every ONE HUNDRED ” is wrong. It is six in fifty six (assuming the current figure is 56-44)
by Haydn on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:20 am
shellbell
In the case above the diners kept dining, for which they also attracted contumely.
by Boerwar on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:22 am
middle man
My mind is very open. I was willing to change it around late April, early May
by spur212 on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:23 am
NT News has a pretty funny cartoon
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:24 am
gloryconsequence@2006,
I have noticed that all of Abbott & Co.’s arguments about the effects the Carbon Pricing system will have on the economy, jobs etc., are couched in mealy-mouthed, highly qualified terms, such as “It will make everyone’s job less secure.”
What’s that supposed to mean at the end of the day & how can it be proven one way or the other anyway? But it sure sounds portentous and will allow Abbott & Co. to keep scaring the population witless from now till the election no doubt.
by C@tmomma on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:24 am
Is that right? Maybe the fear campaign is already slowing down, then. They have already retreated from “industries will shut down” to “businesses will shut down” to “prices will go up”. This one looks like “businesses won’t close down but wouldn’t it be terrible if they did?”
From catastrophe to disaster to discomfort to hypothetical discomfort. Thus goes the fear campaign. With interested parties tut-tutting on the sidelines at anyone who dares ridicule the fear-mongering.
by Aguirre on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
C@tmomma – OK, so you’re Sophie, frozen to the spot, or unsure what to do.
Is your next reaction, while others are helping, to sneak a peak at your opponents notes? To me, that’s more telling. Always looking for an angle, regardless of circumstances, it shows an active mind looking at possibilities. Hardly frozen or concerned.
by Leroy on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
Leroy
I am with you. I am not going to apologise for being so nasty about Miss Sophie. She deserves all the criticism she gets
by victoria on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:29 am
I think it was Mod Lib, commenting on QandA, who said it was biased towards Labor.
The evidence is, I assume, that Tony J actually pulled Mirabella up for one of her contemptuous speeches, asking for an explanation; that Combet told Graeme Morris his prevarication on the reality of AGW was “rubbish”, and that the audience laughed at Mirabella’s answers and clapped Combet.
I understand that the audience is chosen according to the latest poll figures, so that it isn’t biased in the “balanced” sense, but in line with what the ABC sees as reality. So 60% conservative?
Therefore the loud laughter at a couple of Sophie remarks must have been simply a reaction against the nonsense she was regurgitating.
For a Labor supporter like me, it was such a relief to have Jones question something by the Coal.
by lizzie on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:30 am
Aguirre
The libs can continue with the fear campaign, but sooner or later it is going to get old
by victoria on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:30 am
I wish people would get off the back of such a fine MP who continuously and politely demonstrates compassion, deep understanding of complex issues and concern for fellow man.
by BK on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:31 am
That was what made me concerned about SM. It wasn’t that she did nothing but the look of ‘distaste’ was evident as they walked SimonS away – a few minutes after. By that time I would have expected her to have a more of a look of concern. She is a pollie and supposed to be concerned for people, not herself.
by BH on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:32 am
If Victoria is on the money and Combet is ‘leader in waiting’, who for Deputy? I’d imagine Swan will stand aside to concentrate his efforts on Lilley (code for good of the party). Combet/Roxon would be good value.
I’m hesitant with pulling the trigger on Combet just yet. If Labor don’t think they’ll get over the line Bob Carr is the better option to stem the losses.
by trawler on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:33 am
BK. i think you mean fellow ‘older’ men…
by middle man on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:33 am
BK
I do sincerely apologise, not.
by victoria on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:33 am
It’s getting bloody old already Victoria, certainly to my eyes.
by smithe on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:34 am
trawler. i think Carr would be open to the ‘johnny come lately’ meme. hasn’t even faced a federal vote yet.
by middle man on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:35 am
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/07/03/coalition-talking-points-all-the-government-can-do-is-mock/
Game for today. Read through these, and see how many pop up in today’s interviews.
by Leroy on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:35 am
smithe
To my eyes too. That was the point of Emmo’s silly antic.
by victoria on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:35 am
Abbott stunting on ABC24
by BK on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:36 am
Leroy
Hmmm….Who is continually leaking in the coalition?
by victoria on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:36 am
i’m not suggesting Gillard go or Rudd come back or any such thing. nor am i seriously suggesting it be Combet.
i just think IF they were to go down that road surely someone who is seen as unifying and not weighed down with the Rudd/Gillard baggage would be the best bet.
by middle man on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:37 am
i like this leak that the Libs have sprung!
by middle man on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:38 am
Abbott has a captive fisherman spruiking his lack of mathematical prowess with respect to small business.
Shallow!
by BK on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:38 am
Abbott on ABC24 from Darwin
This carbon tax is going to be terrible for jobs. Dump this toxic tax to help families.
The incoming CLP NT Government will be against this toxic tax.
Big New Tax on Everything gets another run.
Fishing Industry bloke – “We don’t like this tax”
Some young kid working in fishing – “Costs are gonna go up”
by gloryconsequence on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:39 am
Abbott reminds me of chicken little and the boy who cried wolf all rolled into one. How boringment
by victoria on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:40 am
When, oh when, is Abbott going to be properly taken to task on this crap??
by BK on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:40 am
Leroy – Hockey today mentioned weak and divided Government, families, and slammed Emerson for mocking the carbon tax.
HockeyLeaks?
by gloryconsequence on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:40 am
@NBCNews: Facebook rolls out same-sex icons for gay marriage http://t.co/9Q0VGxvi
by guytaur on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:41 am
zoomster @ 1996
This is a crazy idea that seems to have it’s followers on PB and elsewhere (not saying you are one of them).
The reality is, if you get the votes, you win the seats.
Seats currently held reflect the votes at the previous election and have NO INFLUENCE on seats won at the next election. They are entirely determined by votes cast at that election. You get the votes, you win the seats.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:41 am
Sophie Mirabella Shows Her Humanity
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:41 am
BK. he won’t be. ever.
by middle man on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:42 am
Abbott bringing up cattle exports as an “extraordinary failure”
by gloryconsequence on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:42 am
I loved the way Tony-look at me-Jones at least took SM on last night over the costs of the Tories PPL plan. Great Big New Tax, indeed.
There’s hope for the lad yet.
Naturally, she didn’t have an answer.
by smithe on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:43 am
Abbott – Emerson juvenile, carbon tax debate should be argued by adults in adult terms.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:43 am
bemused
that’s actually my point!!
Using past polling data to predict future election results has some validity, but must be used with extreme caution.
by zoomster on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:44 am
Rudd benefited from the biggest scare campaign since the GST – Workchoices, and it was a very effective scare campaign. Built on more solid foundations that the GST and current one, but it was a scare campaign nonetheless.
by middle man on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:44 am