Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
William mentioned earlier that PM were doing a piece on carbon pricing. I caught it on News Radio when it was repeated about an hour later. I’m pretty sure it’s close to the only mention CT got all day on News Radio, at least during the stretches I was listening to it. SB-Y and the death in Afghanistan seemed to be dominating the news cycle there.
Anyway, the piece started out all right. They did a number of price checks on a basket of items last week and today for comparison. No change. None at the greengrocer or the butcher either. They said they weren’t intending to raise their prices either, not even as an adjustment for inflation with the new financial year coming in.
But they rounded it off with Hockey visiting the area (coincidentally) and he was out spreading his message of cheer. Apparently the reason the prices didn’t go up is because they haven’t got their electricity bills yet. And to close the piece, any message for the government? asks Hockey to the greengrocer who sees no reason to put his prices up. “Stop the Carbon Tax” comes the reply. Make sense of that if you can.
I think the CT is about to exit the news cycle completely. If there’s nothing new to say about it, there’s no interest in it. We had the “Here comes the Carbon Tax!” lead-up, which sustained some interest. Now it’s here, and there aren’t any big price rises to talk about. So they can talk , but people are going to say “Huh?” from here on.
by Aguirre on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:14 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Ah yes, because just like the Senate, FF are in with a chance of winning a seat here … oh wait.
by Jackol on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:15 pm
…Bloody Carbon Tax!
Maybe JoHo has been applying his famous research skills again. Didn’t he attempt to disparage Swan’s World’s Best Finance Minister award by pointing out that a Nigerian and a Rumanian had also won it?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Pegasus @ 2597
You will have to read yesterdays posts to get the point.
Greens are simply a parasitic organism seeking to feed on the ALP. I gave Greens the benefit of the doubt for some time, but recent events have had a wonderfully clarifying effect.
I would be uncomfortable in Melbourne if there were more than 15 candidates.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Labor aren’t doing a very good job of that if you look at the state of the parties around Australia.
by Diogenes on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Aguirre:
On Friday I put in a stores order for some special stationery at work. The stores officer made some glib joke at the time about beating the caaaarbon tax.
She delivered my order today, saying they’d given her a new catalogue for the new financial year, and the things our office orders most of hadn’t actually gone up in price.
Did Abbott ever go to a stationers on his Talk Australia Down tour over the last 18mths?
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Dee
So obvious that Coalition puts everything through a political filter. Ridiculous and very ignorant.
by lizzie on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm
@Dio/2605
Obviously Greens not very good at destroying Coalition either, they are the greens biggest threat, not Labor.
by zoidlord on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Irrelevant.
Just shows Labor is willing to preference a right wing conservative candidate well above a progressive candidate simply to maximise its chances of winning.
Whatever it takes
Who will Labor get in bed with at the next federal election in order to maximise its electoral chances?
by Pegasus on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm
SK
Media lawyers are in a class of their own!
by shellbell on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:23 pm
LSL,
I don’t think Abbott’s problem is with the hard right of his party. It was this group that put him in the job in late 2009 when the rebelled against Turnbull and the ETS. Without an obvious contender from the Hard right in any new leadership contest, I don’t think they will abandon Abbott.
Furthermore, the more recent dissent in the Opposition has come from people like Turnbull (ETS & NBN), J. Bishop (Foreign Aid), Robb (Superannuation) and Hockey (Surplus). These people are not right-wing crazies, but they have at one time been potential candidates for the leadership. I suspect this is the reason for their silent (but conspicuous) dust fights with Abbott, despite the large poll lead.
In any future Liberal Leadership ballot drafting the realists to vote against Abbott will be the easy part. The hard right won’t go so easily.
by Scrutineer on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:23 pm
Puff
not a lawyer (started Arts/Law but found it too dull and boring) – but will give you the bush lawyers opinion.
Wilkie has a thing for whistleblowers, being one himself. Mostly, the whistles are blown to journalists – and often the sources wish to keep their actions secret for fear of retribution.
Wilkie understood this personally, as when he revealed intelligence that the Saddam Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq did not exist, and Howard and Downer knew this but still lied about it and went to war.
So what did Howard do to Wilkie? On the public record, but harassed him to the point his marriage broke up, ASIO and AFP questioning, lost his job with a never to be employed again stamp on his file etc
So the new Act protects journalists from revealing their sources, with some conditions for public interest and “normal business” of journalism, so illegal activities would not be covered. Like any new law this has not been tested by the courts, so anything we might think or say may well be worthless.
Acts override common law, but not the Constitution. The Australian Constitution is silent of freedom of speech (the US 5th Amendment does not exist here). Common law is the cases which have been adjudicated in like jurisdictions on similar principles. There is probably a bucketload of cases on journalists privilege.
This can only help Murdoch as he will drag complaints through the courts, claim the high moral ground (which amazingly will be echoed by 70% of the Australian press) and have an extra layer of protection for the “sources” which dot his organs stories
Hope this helps
by sprocket_ on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:24 pm
All we can do is focus on the problem the Noalition and Greens cause Australia and fight the best we can. In a democracy sometimes the people deserve an appalling govt and sometimes they deserve an appalling senate. If the people of Australia go to the next election and decide they want a dreadful govt democracy says they can have it.
by WeWantPaul on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Bemused
If Labor in Victoria is STILL putting FF ahead of the Greens how do they expect to get votes from younger people?
by daretotread on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Interview with Mega George
http://www.kingstribune.com/current-issue/1540-interview-with-geroge-megalogenis
It’s separate to the other KT article I posted earlier today which also mentions him.
http://www.kingstribune.com/current-issue/1537-journalism-is-not-dead
by Leroy on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:27 pm
bemused
I read them.
Ditto.
I gave Labor the benefit of the doubt for some time, but recent events have had a wonderfully clarifying effect.
Casting an informal vote instead of preferencing Anna Burke is under serious consideration.
If this is what I decide, I will then persuade as many people as I can to do the same.
by Pegasus on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Pegasus: I don’t care where Labor put the Greens on the ticket as long as they are above any other party that has a chance of winning.
Family First #6, Greens #7, Liberal #8 is fine by me.
by Danny Lewis on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:27 pm
You are arguing with a meme Pegasus. Bemused, Zoomster and a few others here are mere vehicles for, in this case, the “offshore processing” meme.
The Greens have always opposed involuntary rendition, punitive detention of the vulnerable and as in this case, refugee trading — surely a form of human trafficking/people smuggling — whatever bureacratic appelation is attached to it.
Regrettably, the ALP noddies are as devoted to their own spin as the Abbottistas are with carbon “tax”/GBNT.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Pegasus @ 2609
And the Greens have shown their hand as being prepared to vote with a right wing opposition in the Senate to frustrate an effective action the government was supporting.
So where’s the difference?
Centre is correct. Greens = Loons.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:28 pm
oops: bureaucratic; appellation
by Fran Barlow on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:29 pm
On what kind of a PM Abbott would be, think GW Bush.
On the US, this case is a shocker. The US are trying to extradite a Brit who has never been to the US for internet copyright offenses and the UK are going to send him.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jun/29/richard-odwyer-160000?newsfeed=true
by Diogenes on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Interesting that NSW amended their evidence act at about the same time and to same effect to protect journalist’s sources. The only other state that has a modern evidence act, Tasmania, did not.
ACT did.
by shellbell on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:30 pm
daretotread
IMO, a proportion of disgusted Labor voters and moderate liberals may vote Greens instead of Labor.
by Pegasus on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:30 pm
It seems to me that the federal GReens are much more extremist and inflexible since Bob BRown has retired. His retirement was always going to be a test of support for the minor party, given he largely stamped his own imprint upon it.
The high visibility of juvenile activist types like SHY at the expense of sensible, rational Greens like Ludlum only exacerbate this perception.
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Diogenes
tend to agree – basically do nothing, but doing a few very, very bad things (cause he’s so stupid). For example, any wars going Abbott will be in it – cut the Budget to the point of induced recession, yep, Abbott’s your man.
by sprocket_ on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Vox populi, vox dei.
The same people voted in Howard four times.
by Diogenes on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Pegasus: are you serious? You want to waste your vote entirely rather than support a good centrist member who isn’t quite as left of centre as you want her to be?
Bloody hell. You Greens need a serious reality check. How about you Google countries of the world that don’t have universal suffrage …
Talk about #firstworldproblems
by Danny Lewis on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:31 pm
rosemour @ 2154
I agree 100%. Clearly the Puff Adder was speaking absolute crap which was rightly mocked by many in the audience but she managed to constantly insert comments like ‘$100 billion debt, waste, incompetence and so on’. This constant repetition of alleged Government waste and incompetence is the reason the LNP are regarded as better economic managers etc and the Government is on the nose. Combet and others need to forcefully rebut this crap the instant it is uttered.
As unlikely as it seems Tony Jones was far more effective in exposing her crap and inconsistencies.
by CO on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:33 pm
daretotread @ 2614
Are you expecting Labors preferences to be counted? It is symbolic only.
And stop insulting the intelligence of young people by implying they are all too stupid to see the Greens for what they are.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Danny,
It’s all or nothing, you know that.
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Leroy:
I’ve enjoyed some of the KT articles I’ve read recently.
I find I’m engaging with the msm less and less these days in favour of the blogosphere.
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Hello,
I am in a very good mood so I will pass on this pearl of wisdom from a old person from dulong today.
He has lived through WW2. Korea, Vietnam, Cold War, kuwait,Iraq. Etc.
Seen jet planes, television,man on the moon,colour tv, push button phones, Internet, mobile phones etc.
LIB and Labor Govts.
We are still here.
by Joe6pack on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Sprocket
Thanks.
If mordochian activities happen to be not ‘normal’ it could get interesting. But yes, it will probably end up as a chase through the court system.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Pegasus @ 2616
I hate to sound like Frank, but “enjoy a Liberal Government”.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Joe6pack
Have you got a pic of the new truck (or a similar one.) you can share?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Dodgy Knees
Not to mention the election and re-election of Senor Arbusto.
by poroti on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Fran Barlow
Indeed.
I stop at one post for the lurkers and then move on to comment on what I am interested in, rather than having my time wasted arguing the toss about semantics, red herrings, etc.
by Pegasus on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Again if people are stupid enough to fall for what I consider transparent, stupid and down right insulting rubbish the Libs spew out (and much as I disliked Howard passionately I could understand why / that others did like him, right up until the interest rate scare campaign that I think played a large part in tipping that election in his favor and morons who voted for him deserved Serfchoices).
Every chance he will have house and senate with our only hope a High Court that is very activist (unlikely). So probably much more executive power than Bush.
Lots of Libs I know assume that once elected he will effectively be controlled by other people and so will suddenly be ‘good’. Not sure I’m holding out that much hope.
by WeWantPaul on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:38 pm
“and the pies in Port Douglas are to die for“
A complete myth. I don’t know what dog food tastes like (although I will likely find out with the demise of the NBN via Tone and Delta Electricity via the carbon tax) but I imagine it is something like whatever was cowering in the pastry of the pie I bought in Port Douglas. It tasted like it had already been eaten once.
In fact, just about everything is a myth in Queensland. The place is basically full of either imported failures who couldn’t make it in the other states or home grown hillbillies who would starve if they tried to live somewhere else. It rains, it floods, it gets so hot your underpants stick to your legs (*) and the roads, once one gets out of the shadows of Brisbane, are rutted goat tracks. The trains are one gauge up from Hornby model sets and the Gold Coast is the prostitution and syringe capital of, well, just about anywhere.
Queensland gave us the Brisbane Broncos, Greg Norman, arch animal annoyer Steve Irwin, Chris Sandow, Russ Hinze, Jackie MacDonald, Aggro, Joh Bananas and of course, the current pair of preening narcissists, Rudd and Newman. It is the only place I have ever been to where the traffic lights operated exactly as they would at a drag strip. Thankfully they are gone but I can imagine the wails of the gun-totin’, two fisted, drinkin’, fightin’, fishin’ and fuckin’ Queensland he-men blaming it in the Communists in Canberra when it happened.
Hopefully, one day they really will secede. They can take those other paranoids in that outpost of Johannesburg that butts up to the Indian Ocean as well as the Northern Territory. Please.
(*) They don’t really stick to your leg. But they do stick. And cane toads. Did I mention cane toads?
by Roy Orbison on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Can red herrings swim or do they drown and die like refugees?
by WeWantPaul on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Hey Greenies, what about showing some sympathy to the 32m Indonesians who still live in poverty of less than $2 a day.
Some of the AS paid $3000 to $6000 per person to get on board to come here.
by The Finnigans on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:39 pm
stunts R us by George bludger.HaHa
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqy7m9qwSJc&feature=youtu.be
by Gaffhook on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Dio
I am horrified by that case and appalled that the Brits are agreeing to do it. We should offer the young bloke asylum.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Danny Lewis @ 2617
There is no Liberal candidate.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Joe6pack
The best bit of advice about what to get wound up about is to ask .
by poroti on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:39 pm
bemused
Just admit it, UR Frank
I was never swayed by your talk of how “green-friendly” u were….ur utterly exposed as a fair weather ally whose support was dependent on political expediency rather than principles
by Pegasus on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:39 pm
I don’t care how people vote, even if they choose not to vote at all.
What I object to is the expectation that the country somehow owes them something in return. Vote however you like, but don’t whinge about it as if you’ve somehow been robbed, or disenfranchised.
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Diogenes @ 2621
[On the US, this case is a shocker. The US are trying to extradite a Brit who has never been to the US for internet copyright offenses and the UK are going to send him.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jun/29/richard-odwyer-160000?newsfeed=true
Hasn’t the current ALP Government given into US bullying and passed similar laws to criminalise copyright breaches and allow extradition to US to help protect uncompetitive US industries?
by swamprat on Jul 3, 2012 at 8:40 pm