Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@Thomas Paine/2846
Rudd used same tactics against Kim Beazley.
Rudd Challenged Beazely, Beazely didn’t resign.
If your going to be a nuisance to this blog, then use correct factoid.
by zoidlord on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:33 pm
I was in an office once that had the last ever tea lady and she was being sacked because of corporate efficiency dividends. The following joke appeared on the notice board:
Two lions escaped from the Taronga Zoo. One was recaptured almost immediately but the second lion was not recaptured for several months. The first lion asked the second lion, ‘How could you last in Sydney for this long without being caught?’
‘Easy.’ I popped into the first Government department building I came to, went up a couple of flights of steps, and hid in an empty room. Whenever I was hungry, I popped out, caught a public servant, dragged it into the empty room and then ate it. No-one noticed. Then I made my fatal mistake.’
‘What mistake was that?’ asked the first lion.
‘I ate the tea lady.’
by Boerwar on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:34 pm
No doubt chimaera has various obscure scientific meanings, but its meaning as a literary figure of speech is as I quoted: “A mere wild fancy, an unfounded conception.” Can we move on?
by Psephos on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:34 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:34 pm
NO NO NO
There is a massive gulf between criminal and ‘praise’.
by WeWantPaul on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:34 pm
On a completely non-political note
a) apparently the director of the new Spiderman movie has the surname “webb”. I love it when this happens.
b) I was surprisingly amused by Ninja Warriors and later Unbeatable Banzuke the other night. In the first of these, some awesomely talented American called Levi Meeuwenberg showed truly astonishing “parcours” skill to get through a very difficult obstacle course in 104seconds. He wasn’t even all that apparently “ripped”, though he was doubtless very strong. It was poetry in motion to watch. I’m not sure why something like this isn’t in the Olympics, but it has, IMHO, a way better claim than several things that come straight to mind.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Psephos
Are you sure you are on the right blog? You would be right at home with the Tea Party mob.
You may not care about smelling like a four day old dead fish when o/s just being an Oz person, but I for one would.
You may have noticed but while a lot of countries may not take refugees – and I take your word at face value on this, what does happen, is the poorest nations on earth take on hundreds of thousands of refugees as they are unluckily stuck next door to where they come from. But hey, don’t let this bother you my fine fellow citizen
by Tricot on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Finns,
No probs, just changed my will.
by This little black duck on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:36 pm
2837
It is my genuinely held view. I challenge your to rebut any or every part of it.
An elected world federal government is the fairest way to run the world. It, if done properly, would virtually wipe out war, tax havens, migration obstruction and a host of other ills.
by Tom the first and best on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Ahhh sweet fond memories … the Adam we all remember and love
by WeWantPaul on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Dio,
I haven’t really got a clue what I’m talking about, it was just a good opportunity to call you a smartarse.
by Jake on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Psephos,
Your idea of moving on is just a mere chimera as there are many on this blog still debating the leadershit crap.
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Is there ever a bad opportunity?
by WeWantPaul on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Psephos,
You’ll be pleased to know it’s zero degrees in West Belconnen.
We haven’t changed in four years, we have found eternal youth / middle age / elderliness …
That’s 273 degrees, Boerwar.
by This little black duck on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Tricot, I am at home in the right wing of the Labor Party: the wing which actually listens to what the Australian people are saying. And one of the many things they are saying, and have always said, is that they don’t like illegal immigration. And they are quite right not to. What we are seeing with boat arrivals is an organised racket to game our immigration system, and to play on the ignorance and gullibility of (apparently) the entire Australian left. One of the reasons I’m leaving Canberra is that I cannot stand having to watch that blubbering idiot Sarah Hanson-Young carrying on about “the world’s most vulnerable people,” meaning the boaties, who can afford to pay about $20,000 for their passage to Australia, while millions of people are sitting in refugee camps with little hope of resettlment. I feel physically sick every time I hear her whining voice.
by Psephos on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:40 pm
SK @ 2861
Yes, those with no interest in a crushing defeat and an Abbott govt with a record majority.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:40 pm
aint that the truth SK!
by middle man on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:41 pm
My computer says it’s minus 2 in Forrest. (I am still physically in Canberra.)
by Psephos on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:43 pm
psephos,
According to SHY it is ‘vuwlnerable’.
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Psephos @ 2864
Well I can certainly agree with that.
The Greens now stand exposed for what they really are. And it ain’t pretty.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Boerwar,
Shouldnt that be Brrrrr?
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:44 pm
I’ve heard of this SHY character, is she significant in anyway? Isn’t she like a green?
by WeWantPaul on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:44 pm
@bemused/2865
Yup, it’s what happened with LNP in QLD.
Guess what happened with Greens/Katter and Labor? they can’t do shit about what Newman is doing to the state of Queensland.
Federal Politics talking about Rudd is crap compared to what’s happening in the States like Queensland after the election.
Newman has free rain to raise taxes, get rid of programs, increase fee’s, sell assists and so on.
by zoidlord on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:45 pm
I’m guessing the list of countries that refuse to take refugees wouldn’t put us in very good company.
by Diogenes on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:45 pm
My temperature thing says it is 16.5 degrees and I have donned the thermolactyls. I wouldn’t survive Canberra
by shellbell on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:47 pm
I had a good deal for respect for Bob Brown, and I do also for Milne, annoying though she can be. Penny Wright seems quite sensible too. Rhiannon is of course an unreconstructed communist, but even that I can have some respect for. Ludlum is very far left but a perfectly OK person to deal with. I haven’t had anything to do with Waters. But I just can’t stand Hanson-Young with her whining and blubbering and her total refusal to engage with reality.
by Psephos on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:48 pm
I didn’t say we should refuse to take refugees. I said we should take lots of genuine refugees, and refuse to take wealthy Iranians and Pakistanis pretending to be refugees.
by Psephos on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:49 pm
A bit like some of the signatories to the UN refugee convention.
by Jake on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Phes
Nice to see you,
Hope u can now tell us the goss,
Do u still have your site
Yes some dont get the rudd thig, and a few dont know where you worked
by my say on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Forgot to add “smartarse”. Sorry about that.
by Jake on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:50 pm
I see the Green bashing continues. Not only does the right wing imitate the Coalition with off shore processing. It now is imitating the Coalition rhetoric.
So phesos. I will say to you what I say to the Coalition people. Return illegal immigrants to the country they came from. All ten percent of them. The rest turn out to be genuine refugees.
by guytaur on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Psephos @ 2875
By your analysis there, it seems SH-Y is calling the shots for the Greens.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:51 pm
If anyone is interested, I’m reading a really good book pertinent to this topic called “The White Divers of Broome”. It’s about the government in 1912 trying to enforce the White Australia policy on the pearl industry in Broome which was dominated by the Japenese, Chinese, Malays etc. They brought in British naval divers to replace the Asiatics.
Needless to say, it didn’t end well for the government or the British divers.
http://www.amazon.com/The-White-Divers-Broome-ebook/dp/B003R50AQE/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1341319829&sr=8-2&keywords=white+divers+of+broome
by Diogenes on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Oh really? You poor sods.
Here’s what Jeremy Sear had to say on twitter a few moments ago:
by Jake on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm
SK
You really do have a cruel streak.
By my calculations, Psephos is on the the south side of the Lake which is really only fit for asylum seekers. If it is already minus two there, we are in for a bloody stinker of a night. Typical pre El Nino winter, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Bemused,
You don’t think Milne over rode the SHY deal?
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm
How is that pertinent? I haven’t seen anyone advocating a return to White Australia.
by Psephos on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:54 pm
bemused
When is that plane leaving for Jakarta to pick up the first load of AS seekers to save them from drowing.
There is not one. So. do not pretend you have a higher regard as a party for deaths at sea than the Greens do. Saying so is just pure hypocrisy from Labor supporters.
by guytaur on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Dio
Since you are over that way…
The Great Emu War to End All Emu Wars:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emu_War
by Boerwar on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Boerwar,
Two words. Gold. Coast.
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:55 pm
So tell me, old timers, are the Possum and the Greensborough Growler still regulars here?
by Psephos on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:57 pm
SK
I have two first cuzzes in the Gold Coast. And they don’t torture me about it.
by Boerwar on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:58 pm
2886
White people are people are disproportionately in the two groups most privileged by Australia having migration obstruction laws and enforcement thereof (Australian Citizens and those able to get Australian visas).
by Tom the first and best on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Possum hardly eve. GG has bursts, the last one of these being in this last week.
by Boerwar on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:59 pm
GG is. Poss, no.
by confessions on Jul 3, 2012 at 10:59 pm
guytaur @ 2887
The fact that you keep asking such a stupid questions proves you are an idiot. Learn how to spell ‘drowning’ and use a question mark.
Well duh… simply compounding stupidity.
Rubbish, the greens voted for business as usual i.e. a continuation of the deaths.
Green projection at it’s worst.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Boerwar,
They are just not trying hard enough.
Look, I am compassionate, send your dog up. I promise his bowl will not freeze!
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:00 pm
I agree with you that those who come on boats are a lot better off financially, socially and medically than those who have come from camps in Kenya and Thailand through humanitarian settlement processes. However, they are all refugees (once they have been processed and found to have a well-founded fear of persecution).
Some of the asylum seekers arriving by boat have pretty horrendous stories to tell as well, although they are more of upper and middle classes of their respective countries.
by Mod Lib on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Psephos
Poss has booted up his own blog and does more regular entries these days. He is on twitter most days as @pollytics.
by Space Kidette on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:01 pm
SK @ 2885
By Psephos’s analysis it would seem not.
by bemused on Jul 3, 2012 at 11:01 pm