Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
There is mention Clive might come to the Gold Coast –
by Space Kidette on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:04 am
In case no one has posted earlier.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/brough-rues-slipper-scandal-while-palmer-pitch-swan-dives-20120703-21fiq.html
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:04 am
victoria
It isn’t, of course. But the right wing defence being mounted is that she didn’t know what to do. Which isn’t exactly what’s needed from someone who potentially will be running the country.
by zoomster on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:06 am
As of yesterday the whole Crikey site appears on the right hand side of my screen. I can only see half of it and have to scroll across to make the whole page visible. It’s never done that before and no other website is doing it.
by Son of foro on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:07 am
lizzie
According to wiki gaming the system is..
by poroti on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:07 am
How many in the Coalition have accepted free accommodation at Palmer’s resort?
by Dee on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:08 am
@SwannyDPM: Disappointing for Coolum community that @CliveFPalmer is sacking staff – not what community needs
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:08 am
zoomster
All Miss Sophie had to do was quietly ask “r u okay” and see what response she got. Then she would have an idea if help was required
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:09 am
Son of foro
I clicked ‘compatability view’ (next to the refresh thingy) and it fixed itself.
by zoomster on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:11 am
poroti
Thanks for that. I have been slowly realising that many on PB are using “gaming” in ordinary conversation, so to speak, and thought it might have a special meaning through common usage.
You can tell I don’t have younger generation living with me!
by lizzie on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:13 am
@ange_anderson: @latikambourke He wasn’t driving.. Shaken but ok.. Delivering an address at LGAQ meeting then off the doctor for check up!
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:13 am
I linked the YouTube video in the post on the previous page.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNUJ_lQiqAA&feature=youtube_gdata_player
at 3.13 into the piece.
The only evidence that I have seen in any of the court documents that Lewis was in contact with Ashby is, as it were, second-hand evidence i.e. transcripts, emails etc.
The interview with Hadley is Lewis admitting in public, by himself that he was in contact “for quite some time”.
The inference – considering the new Journalist Shield law that Wilkie amended – is that any promise Lewis made to Ashby was broken by virtue of that interview. You can’t be selectively confidential, when one of the parties who were let into the secret is serial loudmouth Ray Hadley along with half the AM talk-back audience of Australia at the time it was broadcast.
The Wilkie Amendment requires the journalist to prove that he promised the source he would not reveal the source’s identity. Telling Hadley he had been in contact for “quite some time” with Ashby shows that Lewis was prepared to break any promise he may have made to Ashby to a potential audience of hundreds of thousands, and therefore should not be allowed to be relied on in the Federal Court.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:18 am
@JuliaGillard: Speaking at the @McKellInstitute this morning about the #carbonprice and how great reforms endure. JG
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:20 am
zoomster
“Compatibility view” seems to fix. Thanks.
by lizzie on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:20 am
FWIW I am using Google Chrome on a PC and having no problems with Crikey/PB whatsoever.
by BK on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:24 am
A train wreck would have more poetically relevant.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:24 am
@latikambourke: Lulz! Malcolm Turnbull’s YouTube dissecting the Broadband Network’s ‘Community Information Kit.’ http://t.co/Q3lXjfvY
@latikambourke: Fess up @TurnbullMalcolm, how many takes? #straightfaceuntiltheend
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:24 am
I do find that if I try to return to earlier pages, PB shifts to “Mobile”, then sometimes freezes. That seems a bit strange.
by lizzie on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:25 am
IMO, the 4 Corners program looked like it was building the foundations to go after Pell.
He has been subject to abuse allegations but as per usual with church investigations of ‘fellows’ they said the claims were baseless.
And, we must assume innocence unless proven otherwise but his lies exposed about witness statement contents etc… make it all look mightily suspicious
by Dee on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:26 am
BB
That is my take. Lewis admitted to the public that he had been in contact for quite some time with Ashby. He has opened the door himself
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:28 am
vbytujm
by Centre on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:29 am
Similarlky here, I’m using a notepad with Windows 7 and IE 8 and the view is normal.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:29 am
As opposed to effectively ordaining the innocence of the horrid perpetrators!
It is a bloody disgrace!
by BK on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:29 am
Ha! Similarlky … similarly …
by Fran Barlow on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:30 am
Centre
?
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:32 am
Just had a call!
There is gloom and depression enmass at the QAL plant due to the price on carbon.
by Dee on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:32 am
Thanks.
by Son of foro on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:32 am
Firefox on a PC and similarly, no probs.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:32 am
Everybody lean to the left!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:32 am
Only on Thursdays.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:33 am
+1!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:34 am
tlbd
Always enjoy your humour, even if I don’t always acknowledge
by lizzie on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:37 am
BK
I was going to amend that sentence for readability purposes.
Ditto!
by Dee on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:39 am
There is a definite pattern with every Clive fanfare. In the end, no fan and no fare.
by joe2 on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:43 am
Profile of the Greens Senator, Peter Whish-Wilson, by Greg Jericho. I’d judge that this is the Green of the future, if they are to become mainstream.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4107618.html
by lizzie on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:46 am
joe2
Word is Clive wants safe seat of Fairfax
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:46 am
Sofas for Palmer and Gina would be more appropriate.
If shareholder influence was measured in kilos, they’ve already taken Fairfax over.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:50 am
Victoria, Clive is a classic bullshit artist. Any word he utters or others utter about him should be treated with suspicion. He feeds on publicity and will do or say anything to get it.
by joe2 on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:51 am
BB
Haha! I am referring to seat of Fairfax in Qld.
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:51 am
joe2
As pointed out by SK. Clive does a lot of look over there to distract from the dirty goingson in The LNP
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:52 am
@JuliaGillard: PM: “Because we are a Labor Government, when we make changes, we help working Australians to make ends meet.” TeamJG
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:53 am
JG on ABC24
Seems deflated. Strange.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:53 am
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:53 am
@latikambourke: PM Gillard ‘the great reforms endure…when reforms become reality we find out who’s right.’ #carbon
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:54 am
ahh transcript available for PM speech.
@tveedercom: PM: “People often tell me.. while they hear about the mining boom, they don’t see the benefits in their own home” http://t.co/COesgGzw
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:54 am
I think Palmer is an asset the Liberals don’t know how to handle. He may even be a liability. I hope he doesn’t get pre-selected for any seat.
by davidwh on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:57 am
I hope he does get pre-selected for a seat.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:57 am
davidwh
R u channelling Ms Grattan?
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:58 am
Palmer is Australia’s Donald Trump – a fantasist whom no-one takes seriously. Gina Rinehart, on the other hand, is a serious player, and much more dangerous.
by Psephos on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:59 am
For those interested in language telling us about people.
http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2011/09/01/the-secret-life-of-pronouns/
by guytaur on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:59 am