Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Who cares about the Rugby State of Origin, The big news is Daniel Conners and Dustin Martin letting the Tigers down by taking “sleeping pills”
Grrrrrrrrrr
by Mick Collins on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:29 pm
zoomster @ 3884
Hmmm, let me see… carbon price, mining tax, NBN, NDIS. Oh yes, the NDIS has been added to it, but who is to say we would not have got to that with Rudd?
The present leader has largely created her own circumstances and there is little I can do to defend her. She is the Prime Minister which should give her an unsurpassed platform from which to defend herself and her government. But defend is a bit negative and she needs to be more assertive in her leadership.
by bemused on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:29 pm
try… grrrrrrrrr
by middle man on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Bemused
Before I go!
Gillard is not perfect either, as you say, who is?
His ministerial colleagues, I would imagine were probably trying to keep a lid on the shenanigans.
Gillard herself said that she had spent hour long meetings with Rudd discussing the issues he was having with staff and ministerial colleagues because everyone came to her to fix it. He would not give anyone the time of day outside his gang of four.
Instead of addressing those issues he became more hostile to those making the complaints by not signing off on documents they had presented & vilifying colleagues.
This meant departments were paralyzed.
Gillard publically made these statements and Rudd has not denied it.
Anyway Bemused, we must agree to disagree!
Soooo tired!
Good Night!
by Dee on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Mick Collins
Just watching AFL 360, on IQ and Robbo has gone off his tree about Daniel Conners and Dustin Martin
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:32 pm
ANother night of Ruddstoration is more than I need.
‘Night all.
by muttleymcgee on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:32 pm
The referees in Bloody League have more influence on the result than in any other of the codes played here.
This Blue was tackled without the ball.
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Mick,
Was there a punch-and-pass the ball tonight?
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Oh, so Julia’s not perfect, so you’re not going to defend her.
Rudd wasn’t either, as you admit, but you defend him. (What a negative thing for you to do).
One is the leader of your party, the other isn’t.
by zoomster on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:34 pm
OC @ 3897
How do you figure that?
I only let him off the hook completely in one out of four!
I was also quite emphatic that rudeness was unacceptable.
by bemused on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:36 pm
zoomster
Dont bother with bemused. When it comes to Rudd, he is irrational.
by victoria on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:36 pm
@bemused/3901
One man cannot think of all that lol.
Sorry to disappoint.
Infact I have been advocating NBN style Broadband Policy even before Rudd was even Leader even before OPEL was thought off.
by zoidlord on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Bloke kicks behind the defence and his mates stand and admire. Doh!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:36 pm
A book was written about Rudds behavior which you refuse to read.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Party-Thieves-ebook/dp/B004JZYBN4
You should purchase this book and read it Bumused.
by Seasprite on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:36 pm
NSW has no idea about changing the line of attack. Try watching soccer you blokettes!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Dee @ 3903
Goodnight Dee.
I like the way it is possible to disagree with you but remain on good terms.
The problem with a lot of this is that a lot of it comes from partisans. I really would like to hear what Lindsay Tanner has to say.
by bemused on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Tackle low and hard! Difficult, is it?
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:40 pm
This little black duck
by poroti on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Forward pass, sir!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:41 pm
poroti,
Wuzzies everywhere.
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:42 pm
You call that a scrum? Give me strength!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Bloke loses the ball because someone gave him a coat hanger and wins a scrum!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:44 pm
zoidlord @ 3911
Well whoopee do, aren’t you clever!
I doubt you were the first to think about it as it was really only a question of ‘when’ we would give up on copper.
Conroy actually deserves more credit than Rudd, but then he was clearly getting good advice from somewhere. His contribution was to be on top of his portfolio and smart enough to do the political work to bring it to fruition.
by bemused on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:45 pm
She has manifestly failed to lead the country, to be a leader, a departmental head implementing much of the previous PM’s agenda is about the best mark you can give her, but that is about it. She stumble like an idiot on the first day, then continued to do an Downeresque routine of incompetence on Timor, PNG and so on.
The factional roaches raise their heads again, to prosecute the same agenda, but this time for a different reason, to justify themselves after the event. The Australian people have got one message for them and their cult figurehead…get the f out.
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Speaking as someone with no interest in the state of origami or football in general I don’t care who folds in this competition, though I have a slight preference for a QLD win as I live in NSW and hate the idea of BOF getting anything to smile about. Also, the more often QLD wins, the less interest there will be in it down here.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Same at the other end and the hanged one gets a penalty. No wonder this game is held up to ridicule!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:47 pm
@bemused/3922
I have no care in ‘being first’, however, I was merely pointing out that Rudd wasn’t the first to point it out.
No need to get your knickers in a knot.
It seems any type of criticism against Rudd you attack for no apparent reason, and it’s BS.
by zoidlord on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:48 pm
But the old formula will continue to apply. The direct relationship of how poorly Gillard performs and the slagging of Rudd by the factional scum. Rudd’s only problem is Gillard’s poor performance.
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Ref got it wrong, again. Red bloke did not knock on.
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Seasprite @ 3913
‘bumused’ oh how clever!
I have never refused to read that or any other book AFAIR. My biggest problem is finding time to read books. Several are in the queue.
If that one is inexpensive I may download the ebook.
by bemused on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:52 pm
I have to agree with Psephos. My new boss worked in Rudd’s office for three months and says they were the worst of her long career. No decisions were ever made, and the man, she insists, frequently abused those striving their butts off – and working ridiculously long hours – to serve him.
And I say this with a heavy heart, because once I held him in high regard.
Off for an early night!
by Just Saying’ on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Get it right, you blokes. First tackle has to be hard and low.
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Just to note, it was actually the recommendation of the expert panel to cancel the can the original tender process (that was looking into FTTN) for lack of value.
by zoidlord on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:55 pm
Now it’s a game!
by BK on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:55 pm
Let me explain. If you are tackled hard and, therefore, falling, you will not be able to pass the ball accurately.
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Field goal time!
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:56 pm
BK,
I’m quite time rich, especially for bludgers.
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:57 pm
The Blues have not been the better team so far.
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:58 pm
Crikey, 20-20 in the State Of Aubergines.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:58 pm
zoidlord @ 3926
Actually sunshine, I was giving credit to Conroy.
by bemused on Jul 4, 2012 at 9:59 pm
What a terrible kick! Take the tackle on their five and let them work it up.
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:00 pm
What a field goal!!!
by BK on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:00 pm
@bemused/3939
Yes he was the one to be credited, but your original arguement was Rudd thought it all up.
by zoidlord on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Time for the TdF. Bye, League!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:02 pm
zoidlord @ 3942
It was part of the Rudd Govt. agenda picked up and continued, quite rightly, by Gillard. Do pay attention.
by bemused on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:03 pm
SBS is doing: In the last episode …
What a waste of time.
Sybil!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:06 pm
QUEEEENSLAAAANDEEERRR!!!
by It’s Time on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:07 pm
@bemused/3944
No you pay attention, read your post @ 3901,
NEVER MENTIONED ANYONE OTHER THAN RUDD.
You have individual minsters for all their portfolios for a reason.
Senator Conroy is still a minister of Labor Goverment, and has the portfolio of the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy.
He’s actually done ALOT MORE than Helen Coonan of The Howard Ministry.
by zoidlord on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Someone said that BishopJ has seen off two FMs. Who would really have to be her oppo and have to listen to her!
by This little black duck on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:10 pm
QUEENSLANDER
Seven in a row and it just gets better.
by davidwh on Jul 4, 2012 at 10:11 pm