Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
This TdF will be provided by the “gandad” syndrome.
by This little black duck on Jul 5, 2012 at 12:54 am
Abbott being tipped out by Palmer. A triumph of gluttony over a shallow, pathetic passive-aggressive little man. ironic IMHO.
by Rossmore on Jul 5, 2012 at 1:00 am
I’m beginning to warm a little to Palmer.
He knows a deadsh_t When he sees one, and he’s picked Abbott beautifully.
Abbott has tried to bounce the wrong man, and now has an enemy within his own party who is not beholden to him for a job, power or money. Palmer already has all of those, and he knows how to hold a grudge if offended.
The late Line interview oozed a bitter yet controlled determination to revenge himself on Abbott, whatever the price. Calling your party leader a lightweight on National Television, even with a cold smile on your face, is not the action of a man who has any fear of consequences. It is him or Abbott.
Abbott will regret ever speaking to Palmer, let alone trying to stand over him.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 5, 2012 at 1:39 am
Yes Palmer’s well and truly smacking Abbott, but don’t expect the media to make much out of it. He’s their boy. Of course if Rudd so much as farts…
by Dario on Jul 5, 2012 at 1:48 am
Ducky, there is stuff in Evan’s head?
Mucus?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:09 am
The Oz has results of a ReachTel automated phone poll from Dobell, with a sample of 646. After exclusion of the undecided, the results are Liberal 61%, Labor 30% and Greens 6% is not the Labor candidate, or 64%, 21% and 13% if he is (I think it very safe to say that he won’t be).
by William Bowe on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:16 am
Re Palmer’s “Lightweight”remark re Abbott
Fulvio 4151
_____________________
In all fairness to Palmer…I’ll put up the transcript…he made the remark that he was a “heavyweight and Abbott a lightweight “in the context of a later remark about boxing…
He noted Abbott’s Blue from Oxford in that context too
To say he was refering to Abbott as a ightweight in the political sense is really taking Palmer’s remarks out of context and untrue
Good fun…but not true to his larger statement..and rather misleading in the main
See the whole interview from ABC
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3539175.htm
by deblonay on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:21 am
That Dobell poll suggests a 64-36 2PP and a swing of 19% (without Thomson). Which seems rather a lot.
by William Bowe on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:15 am
It’s really is a strang world, we have an inhumane debate with the Liberals and Labor trying to out nasty eath other, and a humane policy.
by fredn on Jul 5, 2012 at 4:21 am
bemused
Posted Thursday, July 5, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink
His post on the issue showes more logic than the pro rudd ramblings i’ve read for months. Any fool can see Rudd will never lead the Labor party again. I would also say, any fool can see if the polls don’t improve Gillard will be replaced. The interesting question is, with who.
by fredn on Jul 5, 2012 at 4:25 am
In my view Psephos is up there with Bushfire Bill. Interesting articulate and well read.
by fredn on Jul 5, 2012 at 4:28 am
Deblonay, every word Palmer used was counted, weighed and scripted. Political double entendre par excellence.
He made sure that he could point to an alternate, usually self deprecating, context and meaning for each barb and insult he threw at Abbott.
His was one of the most measured attacks on a political leader that I can recall hearing. He was enjoying it cold.
And it has a long way to go.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 5, 2012 at 4:30 am
Again today, a SMH web page which is not hysterically anti Labor, in fact, which read objectively is policy neutral or silent, non critical of Labor, and tut tutting of Coalition foibles.
Even Costello’s article is not policy directed or party biased in any way.
Que pasa, hombres?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 5, 2012 at 4:53 am
It’s value is the exclusive economic zone that surrounds it. The detention centre is a complete waste of money. The drain on public funds will end when it is closed.
Don’t blame the island for bad public policy.
by fredn on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:01 am
Guess the sharks will be mighty pleased at this china policy.
vexnews@vexnews
No More Shark Fin Soup At State Banquets, Says China http://bit.ly/MTp30J
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:13 am
Could be abbotts biggest mistake, as palmer not running against swanny, has now let the tiger loose to be in the news everyday, for elsewhere.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-05/palmer-eyes-kennedy-and-fairfax/4110880
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:21 am
Another liberal con, WA’s barnyard of course.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/14136481/barnett-wants-1-8m-to-teach-asylum-kids/
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:23 am
Another wa liberal lie.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/14136274/premiers-no-choice-narrative-debunked/
Sorry about all the posts ,do not know how BK puts all his pastes on one post.
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:26 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Looks like heavy industry thinks carbon pricing will continue.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/big-polluters-convinced-carbon-price-is-here-to-stay-20120704-21hix.html
by BK on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:40 am
OK Don … I’m sufficiently amused …
marginal utility in this context …
Psephos had it that if you rewarded MPs less for getting to be MPs than is the case at present, all of them would be hacks or ideologues, as opposed to now where only most of them were. He didn’t make clear whether the current surfeit of hacks or ideologues could be remedied with even richer rewards for climbing the greasy pole to parliament — a place widely held in the pages of the popular press and some here to be composed of people not doing real jobs anyway.
One could perhaps attribute the values in public goods terms as the two states as follows:
S(nV) the public goods value of the state where the parliament is resourced as it is now and is composed mostly of hacks and ideologues
AND
S(fV) the public goods value of the state where the parliament is resourced rather less well thas it is now and is composed entirely of hacks and ideologues
Although he doesn’t explicitly say so, Psephos probably wants to assert that S(nV) has a greater value than S(fV) and it’s this difference {(S(nV) – S(fV)} that is the marginal utility of the current resourcing policy.
This is highly theoretical of course. To the best of my knowledge, nobody has ever evaluated in countable terms the public goods value of any of our parliaments. Doubtless they make a considerable contribution to the wealth of the nation, but putting a figure on it is pretty hard because there never is going to be a counterfactual or control state with which to compare the health of the nation. Unlike a prvate company, there’s no clear balance sheet with revenue and cost streams and quantifiable product. Even if the budget runs at a surplus, that merely means that on the whole, the commonwealth has succeeded in levying the population more than they expended which doesn’t tell us its public goods value. This difficulty in evaluating the contribution of parliament probably partly explains the tendency to see MPs (along with public servants more generally) as not doing “real jobs” or living in the “real world”.
If we could put a dollar value on the marginal utility of S(nV) above and calculate the marginal costs of the present parliament relative to the less well resourced parliament in S(fV) (and if we assume a causally linear relationship between these realtive costs and (SnV – SfV)) we could work out how much extra value each extra dollar earned us and compare it with spending extra public dollars on some other project.
Historically, the concept of marginal utility has been raised by those wishing to criticise Marxism, so in raising the term I was alluding (too subtly perhaps) to Psephos‘s self-description as being of the right of the ALP.
Is that simpler Don?
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:45 am
Sorry, trigger happy.
Mal Washer nobbled?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/washer-writes-off-mps-group-effort-20120704-21hlq.html
Now Abbott has a closer link to the MOAR.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-backs-brough-selection-bid-20120704-21hkk.html
The carbon price gouging actions will continue to make news. Next week the ACCC will publish complaints received and actions taken to date.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/bakery-roasted-over-bid-to-gouge-20120704-21hiu.html
This stoush is becoming intriguing.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/woolworths-fights-getup-over-pokies-20120704-21gul.html
David Pope on Brumby’s.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
David Rowe on Abbott and Pell.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
by BK on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:53 am
BK,
Abbott had his instructions, stop the carbon pricing before it was introduced. He failed, all the big emitters now have to pay significant sums to reduce their emissions or loose business too competitors. That’s the beauty of an emissions trading scheme. Abbott, having failed is now expected to toe the line by the big emitters and accept the scheme. For all the bluster about repealing it Abbott will have to eat a sh#t sanga or face the wrath of what have been big LNP funders.
by Smaug on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:53 am
morning bludgers…..
well, another day in the trenches…keep warm wherever you are!
finns….
is this new boson anyway related to your wonderful bisons?
by Lyne Lady on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:58 am
The Pope can run but he can’t hide.
http://www.americablog.com/2012/07/pope-fires-bishop-over-administrative.html
by BK on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:58 am
Yes, Smaug, it is evident in that article that the carbon price is already working.
by BK on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:00 am
TLBD:
Apparently, you can be penalised for a false start for moving off the starting block to soon after the starting gun has sounded. Moving off is measured by weight transfer, AIUI. They assume that if your movement is less that some tiny fraction of a second after the gun (I seem to recall 3/10ths) that you must have been guessing rather than reacting.
It sounds harsh, but I suppose if you don’t want races disrupted by people trying to game the start then you probably have to do that. I do recall Andy “Roy” Symonds taking a stunning catch millimeters above the turf at short cover in an ODI where the reaction time from the bat was measured at 0.34s.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:05 am
I’m off to the flatlands for the day. Catch you later.
by BK on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:09 am
SK:
I hope your husband is wearing suitable protective head gear and mouthguards. I wasn’t keen on either of my sons getting involved in football for reasons like this (though soccer was OK).
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:18 am
just watching clive on lateline – wonder what we’d have to do to get one of those mercs??
by Lyne Lady on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:20 am
I can hear music…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/peter-slipper-subpoenaes-lnp-head-bruce-mciver/story-fndckad0-1226417324357
I used to be able to play this song once, on the piano.
It’s called Damage Control.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:20 am
After the QLD final result you can’t dismiss Reachtel polling lightly.
by davidwh on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:26 am
Good Morning Bludgers!
Special weather report for Boerwar: Gold Coast is looking at another beautiful day. Dress code: T-shirt and Shorts Agenda: Day on the Beach at Bribie Island!
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:33 am
Fran Barlow,
Highest rates of injury in the world are in Soccer.
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:35 am
Bushfire Bill @4179
Yeah the ashby case was always a threat to abbott leadership, and what he knew
it likely it will turnout as another godwin Gretch despite the coalition supporters claiming it wouldnt damage abbott
Abbott is in the firing line
by Meguire Bob on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:37 am
SK
Please have some mercy for us PBs shivering through another freezing Melbourne winter. Worst time of year for those of us who hate the cold. Amazingly I was talking to a lady the other day who just loves it. Takes all kinds I suppose.
by Darn on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:40 am
Darn,
I grew up in a place that had regular 0 to -2 winter mornings. I remember going to school dressed in a short skirt, bare legs, school shirt and a sloppy joe on those mornings. (How on earth could I even think of doing that!?!)
Now my friends who live their ask me to come in visit and my response is sure – when the temp gets over 21 degrees!
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:45 am
oops ‘in’ = ‘and’
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:46 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
They say Higgs BOSON is the fundamental of the Universe. I say Finns BISON is the fundamental of Australia – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/
by The Finnigans on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:47 am
PB retainers might be interested in this:
Moderation Problems at the Bolt Blog (Professor Quiggin)
re: Carbon price estimates, John Humphrey’s (admitted) flawed analysis and Blot’s self-serving misuse of it …
On a separate issue, “Mel” over at Quiggin’s blog summarises some of the sentiment at Catalepsy following the advent of carbon pricing:
Telling …
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:47 am
oh another spelling howler ‘their’ should be ‘there’. Apologies. Brain is not engaged!
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:48 am
The reported comment by an immigration official that asylum seekers are using the navy like the NRMA will get a massive run from the Libs I suspect.
by Burgey on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:49 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
MOAR …. MOAR …. MOAR .. ROAR … ROAR…. ROAR – Peter Slipper subpoenaes LNP head Bruce McIver – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/peter-slipper-subpoenaes-lnp-head-bruce-mciver/story-fndckad0-1226417324357 #auspol
by The Finnigans on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:50 am
Bushfire Bill,
As they used to say on Laugh In: “Verrry interesting”.
The way I interpret taht story today in The Australian is Rupert having decided to throw Bruce McIver, Clive Palmer and Mal Brough under the bus in order to try(and that’s the operative word considering all the other damaging texts/Sexts?
) to yet come out between Chris Pyne and James Ashby, plus others yet to be put in the frame from the federal Coalition.
Good luck with that one, Rupert. The oligarchs haven’t figured out how to have judges bought and paid for in Australia yet like they do in the United States. And, as I have commented previously, thank the Lord Dog above, we have a federal Labor government in power, even if just barely. So no ability for anyone in the Coalition to sweep the matter off the front page, out of the courts and under the carpet.
Of course the Coalition knew the merde was headed for a fan near them after the first court case. Which is no doubt why we started seeing those stories leak out from the Coalition bunker and into The Australian about Bruce McIver seeking to depose ‘fair dinkum good bloke’ (copyright Tony Abbott in Common Man mode), Alan Stockdale, from the job of Liberal Party President, in a virtual coup. Also the couple of stories about the full-on ding dongs between Abbott and Clive Palmer. Then Clive Palmer beginning his rearguard action in the media with the veiled swipes at Abbott.
This coming battle of the Heavyweights in the Liberal and LNP parties, is going to leave ‘The Thrilla in Manilla’ between Joe Frazier and Muhammad Ali for dead, I reckon. I’m buying popcorn and ringside seats.
Not to mention the fact that Mark Scott at the ABC won’t be able to keep the lid on the Kathy Jackson/Michael Lawler Affair
forever. Simon Cullen is already sniffing around and publishing a little bit here, and a little bit there about it. Probably can also smell a Walkley in it for himself too and wants to be the first cab off the rank with the low down before it blows wide open.
I can’t wait for an enterprising investigative journalist, maybe Wixxy, he seems to be the only one left, to follow the money paying Kathy Jackson’s legal bills to Alan Jones, the Liberal Party and ?
I also wonder about Mark Scott’s connections to the Liberal ‘eminence grise’ Lawler family, seeing as how Sir Peter Lawler, patriarch, was one of Menzies’ Deputy Secretaries.
It’s all enough to warm the cockles of one’s heart during the long, cold Winter Break.
No wonder the Mid Winter Ball of politicians and Press Gallery Courtiers was such a sombre affair this year. Impending lay-offs my butt!
by C@tmomma on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:53 am
I’m one of those people that enjoys the cold weather. On the other hand, days above 35 degrees I just half shut-down from discomfort.
In other news, I was amused to hear radio hosts ridiculing Abbott’s stance on the Carbon price. They slammed Brumby’s and started mocking how evil Carbon Pricing is portrayed to be.
“The Carbon Tax is why NSW lost the State of Origin”
“The Carbon Tax is what killed Bambi’s mum”
“The Carbon Tax invaded Poland and started WW2″
“The Carbon Tax shot JFK”
etc.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:54 am
SK:
That might well be so. I’ll take your word for it.
Still, I’d be very surprised if injuries to the head, brain or central nervous system or spinal column in Soccer per 100,000 participants approached those in Rugby-style football.
I once met someone whose nose was broken by copping a soccer ball in the face and just yesterday my elder son pulled a muscle running over an uneven surface playing Soccer but in the absence of other good data, I’d say Soccer was much less likely to cause a seriously life-altering injury than Rugby-style football, which has scrums and is a full contact sport.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:55 am
Damn, I should use the ‘Preview’ button, but I is too lazee.
Anyway, first paragraph should have been wtte, Rupert has decided to throw McIver, Palmer & Brough under the bus in order to save the Liberal furniture and his Best Boy, Abbott.
by C@tmomma on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:56 am
Von Kirsdarke@4193,
Which radio station was that? JJJ?
by C@tmomma on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:57 am
My response from the ABC:
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:01 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
It is obvious Clive for Canberra, supported by the new white shoes brigade, is on with the best PM money can buy #auspol
by The Finnigans on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:02 am
Hmmm …
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:02 am