Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
libs never like their own very poor economic record placed in comparison to the BISON’s.
But it will be over and over again.
by dave on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:55 pm
http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/thepower50/peta-credlin
great link schannappi i never seen here before,
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Well, we’ll never know now will we Fran?
Courtesy of the Greens.
What we do know is that they’ll keep coming and keep drowning.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Those that do arrive will be processed onshore and those that don’t make it will be processed, in a slightly different way, by the ocean’s food chain offshore.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:59 pm
@GMegalogenis: @JuliaGillard just ran a live blog next door to me. Her Herald Sun comments thread was more civil than mine. Love those polite Melburnians.
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Article advocating the Greens’ position on asylum seekers.
http://theconversation.edu.au/want-to-stop-the-boats-make-refuge-accessible-off-shore-8022
by Pegasus on Jul 5, 2012 at 2:59 pm
smithe
If drowning is your worry get some planes fly them here direct.
Solves the drowning problem.
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:00 pm
by leone on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:00 pm
@Fran Barlow
I was thinking about that but if the government says “once you get sent back to Malaysia you can’t try again” they could surely enforce it by keeping fingerprints/retina scans of those they send back?
by McFly Marty on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:00 pm
McFly Marty @ 4518
Yep, sure, Malaysian citizens are going to be happy being treated as refugees in their own country with the deprivation of rights that entails. But in any event, they will speak Malay or one of the other local languages and their origin will be fairly easily established in most cases.
Similarly Indonesians.
by bemused on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:03 pm
MySay
Credit belongs to below,usuallypost whole ting,bit of a lapse pasting what I was reading,but person below responsible.
Ningbojoe@ningbojoe
It says a lot about the Abbott when his COS Peta Credlin is described as not a policy person. Just a spin merchant. http://bit.ly/NalzYH
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:04 pm
My worry, guytaur, is getting genuine refugees (like those languishing in camps in Africa) rather than a bunch of self-selected moneyed gamers from fuk knows where.
Doesn’t seem to bother you or the rest of the Greens one bit.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Guytaur
Okay. How many thousands are you prepared to fly here direct? Don’t forget there are millions of displaced persons over there, not just a few thousand.
by janice2 on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Re: John Laws. Last Tuesday I and about 600 of my commie mates from the NSW Teacher’s Federation were busing down to Farrer Place in Sydney to blow a few raspberries at Barry O’Farrell and his neocon mates when the bus we were in pulled up at the lights. A light green Rolls Royce with the top down pulled up and in it was John Laws complete with ‘cool’ cap and generally dressed like a 20 y.o. The comrades gave him a lot of attention and also took photos. Lights turn green, and off he goes but unfortunately got the same treatment as our bus pulled up beside him again at the next set of lights. All good fun!!
Laughed at how he tries to pull his hat down over his face.
by philmour on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:07 pm
smithe
If those “gaming” the system are genuine refugees then they lose money and risk life to do so.
However increased funding to the UNHCR is the only practical way to approach this problem. The Greens have continually been calling for such increased funding.
What is ALP policy in this area?
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:07 pm
janice2
That is a different problem to people drowning. Be honest you labor people have caught the Coalition dog whistle on numbers of boats.
This is shown as soon as you mention the only real way to minimise drownings at sea.
It is an easy fix. Just not so if numbers are your real concern.
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:10 pm
I just did some serious enviro-political research. For every 5% increase in the Greens vote in an electorate, the number of native species that arre recorded in that electorate fall by 50%
by bluegreen on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Boerwar, you may be interested in this, if you don’t know about it already:
by C@tmomma on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:13 pm
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/ACCC-hits-back-on-misleading-carbon-price-claims-pd20120705-VW35J?OpenDocument&src=hp2
by dave on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:13 pm
@sunili: RT @ABCthedrum: Compassion, not politics, is what will save lives, says @sarahinthesen8 […]
Entire article = Greens v ALP. #headdesk
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:13 pm
The Greens have been calling for a lot of shite over the years guytaur.
Doesn’t mean they have a practical solution to anything. In fact, so far as I can see, they don’t. All they can come up with are these values-based feel good pronouncements on this and that that may accord with ‘princilpes’ but solve nothing.
They’re the ultimate dreamers.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Bruce McIver subpoenaed. What all communications regarding whether he was trying to find jobs for Ashby and Doane.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-president-subpoenaed-in-slipper-case-20120705-21j68.html
by middle man on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:14 pm
my say
Triedto add that power index to favourites but did not work ,but this link did.
http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:15 pm
grrr stupid brain. i meant to type “Want” all communications…
by middle man on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:15 pm
smithe
The Greens have been called dreamers on issues before. See Carbon Price. We know who has been proved right.
You might not like the only practical solution there is. It does not change that it is the only practical solution there is.
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:16 pm
http://www.abcgonetohell.net/post/26540819082/abc-poster-boy-clive-palmer
by ABC gone to hell on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:17 pm
bluegreen @ 4566
Just catching and found this.
I think I’d need more proof that there is direct cause here
by lizzie on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Mulcaire will name the murdoch people,even though he was ordered to,seems he will cooperate fully.
http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/crystal-ball/who-ordered-phone-hacking-mulcaire-will-tell/201207051518
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:18 pm
But there won’t be thousands arriving each month, as was shown when the Malaysian solution was first introduced and the first few started getting sent back
by Dario on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:20 pm
PM Julia has been bludging today like you guys,answering questions directed to her on Ltd News blog.
What is the question she is most asked?
Why did she say NO carbon tax before the election, then introduce carbon tax after the election.
Bloody Greens!
Victoria if you are there, I have changed my mind.
Labor should move to an ETS asap.
Why?
Because the Greens are against it!
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:21 pm
and numbers are significant, no matter what spin the Greens try and put on it.
The fact is that Australia can’t take an u limited number of refugees. Anyone who says otherwise is a nit wit. Our water resources couldn’t handle it, nor could our society.
Most Labor people are more than happy for us to take our share. And, generally, we have been. Perhaps we could take more, but there’s a huge difference between more and everyone.
The Greens don’t seem to get this. For them it seems it’s all or nothing. And anyone who somehow argues for a fixed or determined refugee intake is some sort of racist.
They’re our ultimate World Peace dreamers.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:21 pm
guytaur& janice2,
The Wee Greens have been forced into putting a figure of 20000 on their utopian refugee/asylum seeker policy.
However, I have to agree with NSW Green Cate Faehrmann, who last night on The Drum stated, wtte: “Asylum Seekers will always get on boats to come to Australia.”
Essentially, she belled the cat on the absurdity of the Wee Greens policy, because, as they would have it, via guytaur, Australia would be transporting a never-ending stream of Asylum Seekers to Australia by plane once the word got out, and, asylum seeker number 20001 would get on a boat anyway. And maybe drown on the way.
Also, I was musing today about the Afghani teenager who told his sob story to Sarah Hanson-Young and made her cry, and whether he was the one the authorities have fingered as being one of the ringleaders of a global People Smuggling ring.
by C@tmomma on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:22 pm
I think your looking for any reason for it not to work, rather than at reality
It’s supply and demand. If the asylum seekers start hearing that others who have forked out $10k to get on a boat have lost all their money and are back in Malaysia, they’ll start reassessing their options.
by Dario on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:22 pm
smithe
LOL still trying to claim On Shore processing equals unlimited numbers are we?
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:22 pm
To be clear then the Greens focus is on rewarding people who have made it to Indonesia already, not poorer refugees in places like Africa?
by roaldan1000 on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Off to the Orthodontist. catch you on the other side.
by C@tmomma on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:23 pm
roaldan
I see you have the Coalition talking points on refugees down pat. As if the effort to reach Indonesia is without cost and trial.
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:25 pm
davidwh @ 4522
It is simply a falsehood that the Fraser Govt inherited a mess.
by bemused on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:26 pm
@watermelon_man: I hope Abbott is intending to privatise those life savers. Smacks of socialism rescuing people for free. Make em pay before you rescue I say
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:26 pm
It should be a criminal offence with a sentence of beheading for any one associating the Greens with practical solution.
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Centre
You have been in the US too long. No death penalty in Australia.
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Guytaur
Get your head out of your behind. As soon as you are asked to expand your stupid statement “to just fly them here” into whether you are asking Australia to accept an open ended deal you come up with accusations that we “Labor people” are not concerned about drownings.
My point is there are millions over there who will flock to an open door aeroplane ride to Oz. So you give ? thousands the free ride and those left behind opt for the boats. So how many thousands are you saying Oz should ferry here by plane?
by janice2 on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:35 pm
guytaur
Yes there should be the death penalty for horrific crimes of murder committed that are proven beyond any doubt.
Ask yourself, do the Greens support it?
Answer = opposite of what they think. You can’t go wrong
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:36 pm
P
That’s odd. The article does not advocate the status quo of drownings chosen by the Greens Party the other week.
Someone needs to line up the Greens Party talk with the Greens Party walk. Or is it vice versa?
by Boerwar on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Centre
I see you have come to your senses!!
by victoria on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Dave, I admire your excellent rebuttal of davidwh’s well practiced willful blindness to the world leading economic performance of the Labor government. I read most of the posters on this blog but not davidwh,he is either economically illiterate or wilfully blind to whats there right in front of his eyes.
The latter serves its purpose.
by Bill B. on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:37 pm
It doesn’t matter because by the time one whole loop has taken place, the program will be abandoned or overtaken (the IMP agents can hope) by a new regime in Canberra. The IMP agents would simply flood the system until it collapsed under its own political weight. It would likewise be quite hard to deal with minors in that way, since they are, err … minors.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:38 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/telstra-accused-of-next-g-web-stalking-20120705-21ivs.html
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Perhaps that’s why the Libs work so hard on demonising the Whitlam Government, even now. Though frankly, I think JG should take it as a compliment when Abbott and co pull out that ‘as bad or worse than Whitlam’ crap.
by rishane on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Janice 2
It is not me accusing others of wanting people to drown. I just say those that loosely go throwing such fallacious statements out there can put up by getting planes to fly people so they are not at a risk of drowning.
No more no less.
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 3:40 pm