Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
If I’ve got the Greens policy right, we’ll tell them there’s a limit and they just won’t come. I’m not sure if they have a provision for the possibility that they get on boats and come anyway.
What I’m getting from the Greens is that they’re against so many things that what’s left doesn’t allow for a workable solution. Probably hasn’t occurred to them yet that that’s why a perfect solution hasn’t been found yet. There has to be some give somewhere. If we all stand around saying, “well that’s what I believe and I won’t budge,” the boats keep coming and the drownings still happen.
Guytaur’s “put them on planes” proposal fails to do two things – 1. Explain how that’s supposed to discourage others from coming on boats as well; 2. Explain how we’re going to deal with the ones who do come on boats. If the total AS out there were numbered in the 10,000 range, it might look viable for them to try for the plane option. But they’re not – the number is way, way more than that.
by Aguirre on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:45 pm
No, ce sera “Tours des Frances”
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:45 pm
GetUP! Founder back at work and getting messages across.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sheikh-says-tv-collapse-a-great-irony/story-e6freuy9-1226417877258
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Julia Gillard@JuliaGillard
Nominations for the @ausoftheyear opened today. If you know an extraordinary Australian, nominate them here http://www.australianoftheyear.org.au/pages/page4.asp JG
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:47 pm
@abcgrandstand: One of Cadel Evans’ Tour lieutenants has reportedly testified against Lance Armstrong in his doping trial: http://t.co/GRbg4W5e #cycling
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Eureka!
I found the solution for the AS problem. We get Pell to hunt down that Moses dude and get him to permanently part the red seas!
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Excuse me? The ALP voted to change the status quo.
by Aguirre on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Think I will nominate Craig Emerson as local hero,for services to singing.
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Who to believe? Malcolm the Gretcher of Tony the fibber if it is not written down? Maybe both of them are porking each other?
by ruawake on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Well he sings a hell of a lot better than he dances.
by davidwh on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Aquirre
Hope you have come up to Oakeshott proposal.
Read all of that post. Those two sentences by themselves lose their meaning as the whole post makes clear.
It is like peace negotiations for Israel and Palestine. Both want change. However the status quo still rules.
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:52 pm
They voted FOR their bill to change the status quo and then
They voted AGAINST the coalition bill (i.e., amendment) to change the status quo
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Schnappi,
Now Gina is selling her shares we coud nominate ger for services to the media!
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:52 pm
looks like Lance Armstrong is in the merde.
Good suggestion about getting hold of Moses, SK. Problem is that he’d have to part the Indian Ocean. He’s going to need some of that stuff Lance has allegedly been using to get that job done, I reckon.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:53 pm
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/opinion/a-carbon-tax-sensible-for-all.xml
by lizzie on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:55 pm
smithe,
Do you have Lance’s number?
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:55 pm
It was a private member’s bill belonging to Mr Oakshott.
by ruawake on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:56 pm
http://inside.org.au/what-has-the-bali-process-got-to-do-with-it/
The amendments to the Migration Act rejected by the Senate would have reduced the incentive for the federal government to pursue refugee protection through the Bali Process regional cooperation framework, writes Savitri Taylor.
by Pegasus on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Space Kidette
For above and beyond the call of self aggrandisement,and how not to make money with your own.
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:56 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:57 pm
The yanks will be heartbroken if their hero turns out to be a doper.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 5:58 pm
We should have listened to John Safran.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Safran_vs_God
by Diogenes on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Yes, I have about 30 seconds to spare – I’ll go through them thoroughly!
by Sohar on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:01 pm
leone – could be. Perhaps giving up the booze has made him nastier than ever but his comments about the PM are beyond the pale. Try to see it and let me know what you think.
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:01 pm
@ABCNews24: #TheDrum on @abcnews24 starts now, with @BernardKeane @timwilsoncomau, @LobbyGleeso + @DoctorKarl on #Higgsboson #auspol
by guytaur on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:03 pm
lizzie
Kaboom goes the Coal’s claim about us having the “biggest carbon tax in the world”
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:03 pm
I will so do very carefully, while the toilet is flushing.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:04 pm
ruawake
81% were for the NBN in that article.
Another article a bit earlier caught out abbott as well.
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/05/03/cooked-books-abbott-misleads-on-nbn/
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:05 pm
http://inside.org.au/after-the-tears/
by Pegasus on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Personally BH I think Humprhies has long passed his use by date. He was funny in the seventies, but the whole palaver is getting rather old now.
He just doesn’t know when to stop.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:06 pm
lizzie – that British Columbia piece is good. Perhaps Oz journos could take the time to find out about it.
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:07 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:07 pm
david
I think it was a time when Cadel Evans came third or even fourth. All the people above him turned out to be drug cheats (assuming Armstrong gets done). I think Contador was one of them.
by Diogenes on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:09 pm
PB very painful to read on my iPad now William. It comes up with the comments squeezed into a impossibly narrow strip in the middle, sandwiched between the ass. When you use two fingers to expand the comments column it sits on top of the left hand side ads; is unstable when you scroll; and inexplicably, some of the comments and sometimes, the page numbers, are too blurry to read.
If this keeps up, I’ll want me money back!
by Just Saying’ on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Smithe – agree with you. We saw his first show and a couple of others but that was enough. He’s obviously looking for something to hit the airwaves to get some publicity.
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Just Saying’
Oooh sounds uncomfortable
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:14 pm
Has anyone bothered to read the notes. I gave it a miss but what is Grattan saying here?
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:14 pm
BH,
I don’t know. does anyone know what she waffles on about?
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Newslimited is so full of crap.
As usual, nothing in the body of the article to indicate prices will “skyrocket”.
http://www.news.com.au/travel/australia/australian-hotel-prices-to-rise/story-e6frfq89-1226418066545
by joe2 on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:19 pm
BH
I believe she is saying “TONY HAS POLICIES ! ” .Although we know they have only one policy an omni NO policy.
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:19 pm
I feel sorry for Amanda Clack – you get a Design degree from CSU and you end up as a Graphic Designer for the Liberal Party, nothing wrong with that except what tools do they give her? Microsoft Word.
by ruawake on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Thanks – I’ve passed this on. If anyone could provide a screenshot showing the latter problem in particular, it will be gratefully received at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.
by William Bowe on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:20 pm
But do Apple have a money back guarantee?
by joe2 on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Last week when the political debate got hot on asylum seekers Sarah Hansen Young’s Facebook page showed many comments disagreeing with the Greens policy and their blocking the Bali ammendment. Within one day the page was replaced by a Wikepedia entry.
Earlier this week the page was restored- but after a few more critical comments its gone again.
by Catalyst on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:22 pm
What a lucky girl is Frances!
by muttleymcgee on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:23 pm
g
That ‘too’ is fine with me g. It shows that in your secret heart you know that the Greens Party stuck with the drownings status quo. Fair enough. It is the simple truth. Labor wanted change, BTW. It was the Greens Party and the Coalition that voted for status quo.
Their call. Their accountability.
by Boerwar on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:26 pm
With a dump that big it beats me how her seat is still in place.
http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/rinehart-sells-off-fairfax-shares/story-fnda1bsz-1226418105555
by joe2 on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Correction:
‘It was the Greens Party and the Coalition and the ALP that voted for status quo.
Their call. Their accountability.”
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Diog, more than interesting, could be expensive if you are careful.
Apple tried to be cute with the trademark name iPAD, which was registered by a Chinese company in 2000. Now they have paid $60m to settle because the Chinese company applied to stop Apple from selling iPAD in China as well as export from China.
by The Finnigans on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:31 pm
Fiona , thank you
Good one to book mark
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:33 pm