Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
SK @4755
It might be more effective to tell asylum seekers that Pell will be responsible for managing child care arrangements while their claims are assessed.
by Jolyon Wagg on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Little extract from leaked documents,does not say must on media policy.
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Screenshot on route, William. mtc later this evening
by Just Saying’ on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:38 pm
I can’t believe these scientists missed a golden opportunity by naming this new thing the “God particle”. They should have learned from the Australian scientists who named a new snake the “Monty Python”!
These nerds should have taken the opportunity to call them Midi-chlorians not God particles!
http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Midi-chlorian
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Naughty, naughty. They voted for both notions. The Morrison amendment sought to stick to the Nauru only option. The original motion, supported by the House, would have changed the status quo. Morrison’s motion might have, too, but the successful House motion would at least have allowed both.
The reality is that the coalition do not want to lose this issue as something to hit Labor over the head with. They’re not prepared to risk Malaysia working.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:40 pm
WHEN WILL THIS THREAD END!?
by ShowsOn on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Has Mod Lib said sorry for erroneously asserting that no one drowned after the Pacific Non-Solution started?
by ShowsOn on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:43 pm
GD:
I am not denying the fact that the Coalition voted against the bill which would have enabled both Malaysia and Nauru. They did. They did that because they will not support rendition.
What I was saying with my post is that the Government could have voted for the Coalition bill which would have changed the “status quo” but they didn’t.
Hence, when people post “Coalition voted to maintain status quo” I add the correction “and ALP”.
Your post does not include anything that goes against my argument.
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:43 pm
ShowsOn:
Have you ever provided that post of mine so that your contention can be tested?
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:44 pm
The Government murdered again on boats on channel 7 news. Although Riley gave a fair report it included deadly the grabs of Pyne saying that the Navy is being treated like the NRMA and Abbott saying turning back the boats worked -and would have been appropriate in the current case. I think many fair-minded voters will actually agree that this last lot should have been loaded onto the naval boat and taken back to the much closer Indonesia.
by CO on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Joylon,
True. Even the residents are afraid of him!
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:45 pm
The Coalition Alternative
The Coalition will renew the commitment to mutual obligation in order to:
Break the cycle of idleness and habits of apathy that can develop in those on welfare and
allow people to ‘give back’ in return for welfare assistance;
Give people new experiences, including positive work experiences, sometimes for the first
time in their lives; and
Make welfare a disincentive for those who just want to bludge.
The Coalition will review the operations of Job Services of Australia to ensure that:
Job service providers are rewarded for placing people into employment quickly;
Training is used only for job seekers who are really likely to find employment as a result; and
People are helped back into the workforce as quickly as possible. Early intervention needs to
encompass job search support and activities that keep the newly unemployed ‘job-ready’.
We will require job seekers to undertake mutual obligation activity after 3 months. This will actively
help build their work skills while contributing back to the society which supports them.
The Coalition will also introduce a Job Commitment bonus. Young Australians aged 18 to 30 who
have been unemployed for twelve months or more and are on NewStart Allowance or Youth
Allowance will receive a $2,500 Job Commitment Bonus if they get a job and remain off welfare for a
period of 12 months. The Coalition will provide a further Job Commitment Bonus of $4,000 to these
jobseekers if they remain in a job and off welfare for a period of 24 months.
The Coalition will introduce a $3,250 Seniors Employment Incentive Payment for employers that hire
mature workers aged 50 or older.
The Coalition will make Work for the Dole mandatory for those under 50 who have been receiving
unemployment benefits for more than 6 months. Reasonably fit working age people should be
working, preferably for a wage but if not for the dole.
The Coalition will suspend welfare payments of young people in areas where there are unskilled,
unfilled jobs. This would send a clear signal to people that the Government is serious about people
needing to engage in work. It is unreasonable that in areas where employers are desperate for low-skilled employees, capable job seekers remain on income support payments.
Quarantining to the necessities of life half the welfare payments of all long term unemployed.
Quarantining welfare income is justified because taxpayers have a right to insist that their money is
not wasted.
CONFIDENTIAL – NOT-FOR-DISTRIBUTION IN THIS FORMAT – (Speaker Notes current as at 1 July 12)
68
17. Energy and Resources
Labor has destroyed Australia’s reputation as a safe and reliable investment desti
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:46 pm
Wonder what people will do to survive under abbott,if they are going to burgle anyone hope they target is liberal pollies.
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Can’t you read this Tory nonsense in the privacy of yo r own home schnappi?
It’s worse than those interminable Greens cut and pastes we’ve been getting rammed down our throats.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:50 pm
What a load of horse-dung. This is PB you are commenting on, not the Play School Groupies blog.
The Coalition voted against it for one reason and one reason only, to smurf-up the ALP government.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:51 pm
I won’t be heartbroken, but it will be a disappointment to find Armstrong was a drug cheat. I was pretty ambivalent about cycling until I watched Armstrong destroy the peloton on a NC mountain finish about 10 years ago. It was just one of the most amazing individual sporting feats I’d ever seen. He was riding against some absolute freaks and he made them look like chumps.
I love watching le Tour now thanks to that one early morning watching Lance doing his thing. I’ll still love it, but it will be a real shame to find out that performance wasn’t all it seemed at the time.
by ratsak on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:53 pm
@Scnappi/4811
Thats really stressing to read, and down right degrading and down right (can’t remember the word targeting certain groups of people etc).
by zoidlord on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Schnappi
The Liberals cannot get rid of the Dole Bludger mentality.
by ruawake on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Just saw pyne and abbottt , we shoud not allow them to get away with talking about nauru and howard we have to mention nauru when we speak becauce abnott gets the last say
Live in the past of course 5 years since johnny.
Is he in his mid 70 by now
Sbs calking a carbon tax still
Lovley memories f tony baging things in factories
New zealand have one john key here
They have to reduce there, i guess its becauce their ecomny is not good
Sad really all their problems
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Discriminatory?
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Schnappi
Usual Tory policy of showing how manly they are by bashing the weak and powerless. Downward Envy-R-Us.Like Tones UK “Nasty Party” mate Cameron this year, he of “we are all in this together” fame, cutting taxes for people earning over £ 1 million pounds per annum and cutting benefits to pensioners. Oh and a 20% VAT for pies and pasties but still zero on caviar
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:57 pm
How come Pyne gets a guernsey in the news segment but no-one from the government?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:57 pm
CO
Let me get this straight. The Australian Navy takes a group of people who are not Indonesian citizens and dumps them on the Indonesian coast. Yep, I’m sure that would work….. Maybe not quite an act of war but certainly one which would create a very serious diplomatic incident and probably poison relations with Indonesia for years. Do people who post on this blog ever consider the consequences of their confident “solutions”?
by ajm on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Zero VAT on caviar in the UK?
Says it all, really.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Smithe i dont mind
Lurkers here to learn how bad the policies are pb shoul d be a teaching educational area
For people tooo lazy to click on
We can teach liberals to. They csn see how backward liberal policy is
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Right on, Puff. Morrison made his intentions plain, including apparently opposing Labor even if they had implemented Nauru.
It’s noble talk about opposing rendition (where’s Jaundiced these days?), but it’s really getting into semantics to pretend that Nauru is anything but that anyway.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 5, 2012 at 6:59 pm
by Aguirre on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:00 pm
ABC radio news did not report what the President of Indonesia or The PM of Australia had to say, they just ran with Abbott’s tourism and teaching speech.
Why bother with elections?
by ruawake on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Of course the Tories love rendition.
They want to tow the boats back don’t they?
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:01 pm
BH
Barry Humphries said that it is common perception that performers are lefties, which many are, but I am the exception.
He is a right wing nut!
by Dee on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Aguirre
Announced to a huge cheer from redneck radioland and all the “homeless” One Nation bigots.
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:03 pm
He’s actually said this?
If so, it pretty well puts the lie to all that guff about human rights concerns.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Barry Humphries is just pissed off because we haven’t given him a knighthood
by swamprat on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:06 pm
d probably poison relations with Indonesia for years. Do people who post on this blog ever consider the consequences of their confident “solutions”? AJM POSTED
Has it occurred to people the diplomatic situations
Who knows
in tbe future, there could be some kind of war
Even when we have gone, we need good neighbours
Do some people understand the population that sits just above us o the map,
Neighbours are important
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:06 pm
There is no way the RAN would fire on an unarmed boat full of people. How long is the Liberal Party going to put up with this joke of a man as their leader? Oh yeah, for as long as they think they can get onto the government benches.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:08 pm
http://inagist.com/all/220705235872657410/
Read the second tweet down
Thats all i could find
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Both ABC and SBS made big deal of Pyne’s statement that Labo(u)r is using the Navy as an NRMA? Why do they give priority to such an inane statement??
Media… do we need them?
by swamprat on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Dee
What would you expect after decades swanning around with all the Received Pronunciation chaps and chapesses ?
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:10 pm
I never ever thought anything Barry Humphries did was funny. As a woman, I thought his Dame Edna stuff was an insult. I am not surprised to find out he is right-wing.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Well if Abbott is now advocating firing on the AS boats he’s got a screw loose.
No one could advocate such a policy seriously and expect to be elected PM of Australia. It is a disgraceful suggestion.
And if it was said in jest, then he’s a dickhead.
by smithe on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:11 pm
How come SBS showed so much of Abbott and Pyne but a few seconds of Swannie?
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Firing on inmocent people”
It coul d cauce a war in the area has any one thought of that.
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:12 pm
More humane than pointing a Puff Adder at them!
by BK on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:13 pm
smithe – heard Abbott earlier today say that the Navy used to board the boats (in Howard’s day), take the fuel and then turn them back to Indonesia so they had no fuel to get to Oz waters. I hadn’t realised that. Nice!!
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Puff, Smithe,
I wouldn’t worry too much about RAbbott firing on Asylum Seekers. Under a RAbbott govt they will have cut services to the bone and the only thing the Navy could fire is blanks!
by Space Kidette on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:15 pm
swamprat
I’d rather Labor using the navy as the NMRA rather than the Mad Monk’s using them as the NRA !!!
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Hot in Melbourne.
https://twitter.com/aussexparty/status/220748285634289664/photo/1
by joe2 on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:15 pm
I think it’s been pretty well known for a long time that Barry Humphries is a right winger. Born in Kew to a well to do family – Camberwell Grammar, Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne University. Not a real surprise.
by ajm on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:16 pm
ajm @ 4822
And people wonder why the Government is stuffed on this issue. This boat rang for help when it was still in sight of the Indonesian coast. If our naval vessel was the closest (understand it was returning from Singapore) it seems reasonable that with the agreement of the Indonesian Government it could have picked them up (ie save them from the floundering vessel) in Indonesian waters and taken them back to Indonesia. I recall that at the time of the initial report there was some suggestion that this may happen.
Whatever you think about International Conventions or relations with Indonesia there is a substantial proportion of the Australian that will not cop the NRMA situation and will vote to stop it. Abbott is continuing to score big-time off this without raising a sweat.
by CO on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:16 pm
The context of that Abbott quote is that, in the presser today when he was asked what if the boat was told to turn around and they refused to, he would do what Howard did.
In essence, he would have the RAN force the boat to turn around by any means possible.
by Aguirre on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:17 pm