Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I think Australia “needs” Abbott at the same time all extreme right wing State governments ……. so that they learn … but will the ALP have the capacity to actually be different?
It is sort of the choice between irrational capitalists and rational capitalists .. no matter what happens capitalists get elected.
by swamprat on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Well twert sbs
I watched it to no wonder only 35 th people o n av,
But jason clare was on
I have written to him just now
Or pollies have to realise they the media will always have abnott reply re nauru
We have to let the publuc know why nauru is out,
May be pollies like jason who is very good
Do not realise they dont get the last say so we must cover the luberals talking points
Bedore they do . Sickening but true
The opp. Givment does:-)
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:18 pm
I thought we told the Greens to not align themselves up with Coalition, while I think all 3 parties are a joke, The AS / Welfare / NBN needs to be resolved.
Tony Abbott is VERY SERIOUS about firing on AS Boats because it’s exactly what Howard did at some point – http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2001/s412083.htm
PETER REITH, DEFENCE MINISTER: At 7 am Australian EST, four warning shots were fired well in front of the boat, together with a short burst of automatic fire.
And can only be done in a Minority Goverment with bipartisan support with an expert panel.
by zoidlord on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:19 pm
BH
The people smugglers have learnt from that – now they make sure the boats are unseaworthy so even this option is closed off.
by ajm on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:19 pm
It will be played up bigtime tonight, Friday, Sat, early Sun for newspolling. I reckon Angus Houston’s experience with Tampa, Reith and kids overboard may rule out any chance of the that stuff being included in his report.
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Well twert sbs I
Well tweet abc, / sbs
Go to their face book sites tweet them
Embarress them think it works better than letters to mangement
Evrry one sees tweetsby the way does abnott know how to tweet
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Oh Hockey, where are you?
The law of the sea is to help those in distress.
Putting a boat at risk by taking the fuel would be illegal, wouldn’t it?
by Dee on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:23 pm
When will a newspaper have the courage to print a banner headline “Libs intend to murder boatpeople”?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:23 pm
CO
This is a real “came down in the last shower” argument. First, they wouldn’t agree and second Australia isn’t going to ask them and risk the refusal. Get real people!
by ajm on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:24 pm
I went looking for a very old article I once read on Barry Humphries’ Edna character criticising him on grounds of his anti-suburburban elitism and attacks on women. Couldn’t find it, but did see this which even in an article praising him by including him in a list, contains some of the same criticisms. His elitism is of an old Conservative kind (less obvious back in the day, but always there) rather than the left leaning kind, but otherwise he fitted in well with that generation of artists/intellectuals who cleared off to the UK and elsewhere in the 50s, 60s & 70s, but managed to keep critising the country they’d long left behind when interviewed by overseas media, as if they still understood it.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/12/22/1071941653292.html
by Leroy on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Forget the Carbon Tax.
It seems that power copanies can spend as much as they like on “infrastructure”.
Under regulation guidelines, the regulator only ticks-off the expenditure to see if the sums add up.
They have no input into whether the actual new infrastructure is needed.
Every dollar spent by “poles and wires” companies is returned to them with an obscene dividend, collected from consumers, guaranteed by state government laws.
The companies can charge whatever they like for their electricity, based on whatever they choose to spend.
Bottom line: There’s a lot of stuff being built that is simply not needed, and we’re paying for it.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/goldplating-the-power-grid-20120705-21iv5.html
Yet the “poles and wires” companies whinge about the Carbon Tax, which is a miniscule proportion of their bills, compared to the reimbursed (with interest) cost of the unnecessary infrastructure they build. This money goes directly onto their bottom lines in the “profits” column. In effect they are writing their own blank cheques, with state governments patting them on the back for a job well done.
With any luck, and a few spare shekels spent on glossy advertising campaigns moaning about carbon pricing, their overcharging can be buried in Abbott-inspired hysteria over the Carbon Tax.
What a nice little earner.
The companies make a motza, the state governments get gold-plated poles and wires that they can sell off later on, and the public – chumps as always – pay through the nose, thinking it’s the federal government that’s doing all the harm.
Bonus points for getting rid of Gillard and her “toxic tax”.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:26 pm
ajm – Immigration seems to be right. Nauru won’t work again in the same way as before.
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Arrrggggghhhhh ! A-Pac “The 2012 John Howard Lecture” at the Menzies Research Centre.
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:30 pm
ajm:
Yep – if “…when safe to do so…” isn’t a great big hint to people smugglers, I dont know what is. And we still don’t know what the Coalition plan is for when the boats aren’t safe to turn around.
by Aguirre on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:31 pm
A sad as it may seem, millions of Australian will cheer this. It’s just what they think should happen.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Roos crews are really having a bad trot with their myrmidons being told to Fess up.
They are such a lovely bunch one feels really sorry for them in a way.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/murdoch_post_chimpanzee_cartoon.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
by Gaffhook on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:34 pm
7.5 continuing the Get Pell agenda.
by This little black duck on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:35 pm
4783
PB very painful to read on my iPad now William. It comes up with the comments squeezed into a impossibly narrow strip in the middle, sandwiched between the ass. When you use two fingers to expand the comments column it sits on top of the lef JUST SAYING
It seems crickey have gone down tbe road of compatability
If you go to tools
One sees compatability with a tick
Unde r that
Sites with comoatsbility, in mine crickey was there no idea how.
Any way do t type o pollbludger, go to top copy and paste in box
Here in lies the problem you then post on the computer and it goes side ways,
But i just turned of f the compatility tick
Then i just realised after i turned off the computer
The tanlet serms to be ok now
Up u till 30 mi n ago i coukd not past and copy
Hope this helps
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Good news?
Record temperatures for the 4th of July over much of the US north-east. This, at a time when millions are still without power because of storm damage. New York alone has over 400 cooling centres (places where the citizens can go to stop dying of AGW). Out south-west, tens of thosands of the citizenry are straggling back to see whether their homes burned down. In western Kansas corn crops are teetering on the edge of heat/drought destruction.
Last year, 1% of USA citizens changed their mind about AGW for every $10 billion worth of climate-related disasters. So, another $US350 billion worth of climate-related disasters and it will be 100% who reckon that there has got to be something in AGW after all.
If they can’t think it through, they can do the lived experience and put 2+2 together.
by Boerwar on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:36 pm
I see the ABC showed the Dame Edna piece about the PM but it was only 1/2 of what was shown on Sky. Then his comment that Edna was jealous of the PM. He’s made the right decision about retiring – it’s past time.
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Should have been.stop the abbott gunboats.
NEW MEDIA Gusface@GenGusface
STOP THE GUNBOATS
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:38 pm
The wording for pollbludger in the compatability
Comes up polbludger 20% wtte
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Dee – just saw your post. I did know he was a RWer and thought he controlled it pretty well on Q&A a few weeks ago.
Betcha Tony Jones has him back on the program now and shows the Dame Edna rant. He loved using the Germaine Greer piece and still refers to it at times.
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Why aren’t you watching the next Wikileaks Documents Release Press Conference?
A lot more interesting than John Howard, and yes, no msm are reporting this.
Just google a link, something in Sweden, expressen (dot) se – tv
by warwick on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:39 pm
You would think that both those actions would be illegal, what if they accidentally hit the boat and killed them, who was opposition leader at the time, Kim? maybe he didn’t have the ticker to stand up to Howard on asylum seekers?
by Seasprite on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Must say,
Just saying my sc reen now moves all over the place
But i have noticed they took notice and moved the add on left of screen
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Murder does affect the psyches of the murderers badly.
IMHO, defence uniforms mostly would mutiny before they would massacre unarmed people in open boats at sea.
Rightly so.
by Boerwar on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Oh that’s nice. Just what we need. Australia’s international reputation up in smoke after decades of effort trying to build it up.
I can imagine the scandal that would erupt if Abbott ordered the Navy to open fire on a boat and sink it. Sure that’s his problem solved, no more of what he sees as subhuman political tools spreading their diseases to his pure nation, no refugee would dare approach here if they know that they’d be murdered.
Then again, I think there’s a few things in the UN human rights convention against shooting at refugees. If Abbott becomes PM, the rest of us would learn what the civilized world thinks of a murderous racist regime.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Brief update on Wikileaks Conference – go to Ustream and its Frontline Club, like the previous conferences.
by warwick on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:41 pm
The white trash bogans are in for a big surprise if Abbott gets in, they seem to be his biggest supporters.
by Seasprite on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Where did they put the fuel in the ocean or a tin
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Wonder what houston and the others will make of abbotts gunboat policy,no wonder abbott said he does not need a commitee as he is deranged, and wants no one making suggestions that might work.
by Schnappi on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:46 pm
poroti – OH is watching another channel but I understand that John Faulkner is speaking at it. His piece on Howard in 2006 was bookmarked by me for future reference so if Faulkner is peaking in favour of Howard I will be wondering why.
http://t.co/LqyYEc9v
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:47 pm
BH
Don’t think so.Sheepen Shagger PM was “da man” from what I saw. Tones was there to give King Rat hisself a foot massage.
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Boerwar @ 4707
How about using full names or at least meaningful abbreviations?
Single letters are confusing or ambiguous far too often.
by bemused on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:52 pm
b
Whoa. realized I might have been talking to somebody else!
meant ‘bw’. So,
bw
Memo to self: put ‘gc’ when gloryconsequences, and ‘g’ when guytaur.
by Boerwar on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:55 pm
LETS ASK the navy to comment on this during tbe horrible hpward years alksorts of storie
About things un mentionable here.
Why woul d they send the boats back re fuel
If they took to much out the boat would sink
What hockkey cried about, the 13 year old , yet taking fuel out of a boat they would drown
So much for his fake tears
We must insist the navy comment to see if this is so
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:58 pm
by Dee on Jul 5, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Thanks poroti – Faulkner must be speaking elsewhere. He’s always worth listening to.
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Nice little double ontong by Clarke and Dawe. Seems the Noaltion is the BrownEdge team. Mirabella didn’t stop to help the rider from the GetUp team who crashed the other night; Combet of the Alp team did
by This little black duck on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:03 pm
BH
I was a Faulkner Fan and could not imagine him sullying himself by having ANYTHING to do with the Menzies Foundation.
by poroti on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:06 pm
osted Thursday, July 5, 2012 at 7:41 pm | Permalink
VON KERSDRAKE
Ive tried googling abnott sayi g this
It terrified me
We coukd end up being at war
People here arr much to dismissing and calm about this
Franklly if i was the m moderator
And saw stuff like this id be sending emails off to check out and tel the ministry
Mr smith and sen carr need to comment and take controll of this situation and dreadful talk like that
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Looks as tho PMJG’s live bit on the Herald Sun was successful today
by BH on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Brilliant Julia
Some of the questions put to the PM by Monkey supporters could have been better articulated by an 11 year old.
Still, by far the question most frequently asked to the PM was why she lied?
Real answer: Because we unfortunately fell for unelectable Green lunacy.
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:38 pm
BB that article r electricity companies is complete shiite. While there is an element of wanting to build more as it adds to their assert base that’s why the regulator is there to stop that. While I only scantly know of that particular case there r aspects of the story that r not mentioned. Ie that the resident bought their houses cheap across from an ugly terminal station and now see the opportunity to make a lot of money by getting it moved. Irrespective of what the article claims i believe the move would b very expensive (much more than the upgrade) and we would all have to pay for it while their property values doubled. So never discount self interest! Particularly shoddy journalism from fair fax (again).
by virtualkat on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Anyone got a link to the alleged Abbott comment other than an Auspoll comment?
by davidwh on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Wow, getting out of the car this evening was cold.
The Greens, they probably expect you to ride a bike instead of driving in this kind of weather?
Oh that’s right, global warming is actually due to start real soon so we are all going to boil to death.
LUNATICS!
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:42 pm
DavidWH
I’ve been looking but no success so far!
by Dee on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:46 pm
No worries for those rail workers unions to show Anna a trick or two for wanting to sell a bit of railway knowing that Cando and Clive will look after them.
Now these dumb arses will lose their jobs and no doubt they will vote Cando in again at the next election.
The mind boggles
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com.au/
by Gaffhook on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:52 pm
Centre Posted Thursday, July 5, 2012 at 8:38 pm | Permalink
Brilliant Julia
Some of the questions put to the PM by Monkey supporters could have been better articulated by an 11 year old.
Still, by far the question most frequentlyCENTRE
Well my qustion at about 1.50 never got a look in,
Realy some of the questions
I think my daughters grade 5 would of ask better questions.
by my say on Jul 5, 2012 at 8:52 pm