Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Perhaps “Basement flat” when the next Newspoll comes out?
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Yes, the Greens, like climate change, have gambled again!
Gambled that their deranged lunacy, like action on climate change
would receive magnificent acclaim and acceptance by the electorate. But the truth is deranged lunacy will never be accepted by the majority of the voting public.
Let’s look at the real life gamble that the Grens have taken with boatpeople.
They had two choices;
(1) accept Oakshott’s bill thereby effectively neutralising “boats” as an election issue which could ONLY act to serve in the best interests of the very people they try to protect, or
(2) reject Oakshott’s bill thereby continuing to make “boats” as an election issue which can ONLY serve in Abbott’s best interests and thus NOT in the best interests of the very people they try to protect.
The Greens chose (2)
People will think twice before ever electing again another loudmouthed minority protest group to the parliament!
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Yes, fascinating stuff: the parasite subdues the fear reaction in mice, by inverting it. What a mouse would normally fear – like the smell of cat urine – actually makes it less fearful due to this inversion process. Also rewires its sexual neurology at the same time, making cat’s piss actually smell sexy to male rats.
Result: rat gets attracted to cats, gets caught by a cat and eaten. Parasite then infests cat (the only animal where it can reproduce) and life goes on.
The infestation in humans is implicated in the researcher as causing more reckless behaviour, thus increasing car accidents (for example), with perhaps hundreds of thousands of deaths per year attributable to it.
Also exacerbates schizophrenia iin those already susceptible. One third of patients with schizophrenia have brain shrinkage 100% associated with the parasite.
Seems to be associated linearly with the rate of suicides in female humans.
The article goes on to say that there are thousands of other parasites – some don’t even have names – that may cause other effects on behaviour.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/03/how-your-cat-is-making-you-crazy/8873/2/
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:47 pm
“One too many times” if another sitting PM gets rolled?
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:47 pm
I don’t think even Emerson would make fun of the issue of whether or not the Coalition would use Australia’s armed forces to threaten and/or kill asylum seekers.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:48 pm
If its safe to do so then in terms of equity then is there so much difference between sending refugees back to Malaysia or Indonesia? Having said that and given the nature of these boats and their over-crowding its unlikely they can be considered safe under most circumstances.
by davidwh on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Night My Say!
Good idea, I am off too
by Dee on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:49 pm
The MSM and others may roll their eyes and shake their heads at Mr Emerson but he seems to have put the brakes on the coalition and its own attempts to stunt its way through the week with its attack on carbon pricing.
It is very possible they had to put some of their own ideas back in the bottom drawer once they reacted to his singing in such a pious manner.
Perhaps we should judge his success by what we do not see this week from the opposition.Their approach seems to be pretty bland and limp.
by Doyley on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Rex Douglas, I expect the issue to damage the Greens.
Abbott’s refusal to compromise on “boats” will cost him some ground, but NOT enough for him to see the issue as a loser for himself
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:54 pm
I liked Emmo’s singing tactic, it cut through.
The more effective the tactic, the louder they’re rivals squeel.
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:58 pm
so slipper still hasn’t fronted the AFP
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-05/afp-still-waiting-to-interview-slipper/4113080
by middle man on Jul 5, 2012 at 9:59 pm
The ALP should keep it up if you think it has proven a successful tactic.
From my perspective, any week in which the Opposition is not the story, is a good week for the Opposition.
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:00 pm
The more effective the tactic, the louder their rivals squeel.
The typo was really intentional as what I said was worth repeating.
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Aguirre@4750
Now who is making the perfect the enemy of the good?
Of course it’s possible that some people will break ranks and make a run for it. Humans are not entirely predictable. No solution can be perfect but that’s not the same as saying that no solution can be ethically robust. Social arrangements become warranted when they optimise outcomes — minimising suffering and maximising the potential for effective insight and therefore autonomy for the maximum number of people. One may differ on which arrangements will most likely predispose that, but that is as perfect as it gets i.e. imperfect, uncertain and contested. You do what you reasonably can with the resources of human insight, skill and material available or that you can contrive in time and hope that you’ve chosen best.
Nowhere in life do we demand perfection in public policy. We’d like it of course, but we know that as long as there are things to learn there are mistakes to be made or risked. On our roads, every day, people are killed or injured driving motor vehicles. Do we rend our clothes in pain and declare: Enough! No more! ‘Tis not so sweet as ’twas before! Of course not.
Do we demand that all motor vehicles be removed from the roads? Perhaps motor dealers — dealers in death and injury surely — should be suppressed? Too radical?
Perhaps the risk of death should be minimised by urging all but those with compelling needs to drive themselves should be in buses or planes or trains where premature death and injury from mishap are statistically far less likely. No, we don’t say that. That’s still too radical.
Ok, we know that more people die on the roads during the holiday season. This largely reflects the unfamiliarity of drivers with conditions and fatigue, along with speed and alcohol and the interaction of motor vehicles with long haul heavy vehicles. So do we discourage people from getting into cars on long weekends and during the holidays? Of course not. The government supports local tourism, notwithstanding that people will die on the roads or be seriously injured. We don’t demand perfection. We do what we can. Personally, I fancy we could do better, but it still wouldn’t be perfect and that’s just too bad.
We Greens are not bound to provide anyone with a warranty that 100% of deaths at sea will be foreclosed. All we need to show is that our solution would in total, meet the tests above — abating misery and empower the marginalised, rather more than any other solution available to us now. If you lot in the ALP have such a thing, let us hear it, but if all you have is high dudgeon and disgust that we didn’t help you win an unethical contest with your rightwing rivals, then you have no business at all being in charge of public policy.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Thommo isn’t very popular in his electorate.
Ouch.
by Diogenes on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:03 pm
There you go, I will even cut and paste it to give it another go!
I completely agree with you Centre, it has been a resounding success.
Suggest to your ALP friends to keep doing it please! Don’t be put off by the laughter from the Coalition, just keep going (you guys know best after all, as is evident by the public reaction to you at the moment!)
Hehe
I am norty aint I?
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:03 pm
“Break on through to the other side” (of 32% PV) … ?
by Jake on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:03 pm
diogs. the power of the meeja right there.
by middle man on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:05 pm
“The Green Door” (is permanently locked) … ?
by Jake on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Mod Lib,
It was done once and then put away.
Have not seen too much screaming and shouting from the libs since it was done apart from one or two “blood oaths. “
by Doyley on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:05 pm
We agree on one thing then, keep the opposition out of the headlines.
LOSER!
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Not surprised it was put away. Doesn’t quite fit with what you and Centre are trying to tell us – you know, about how brilliant it was!!!!
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:07 pm
You know what they say old friend: sticks and stones…sticks and stones
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Have your school holidays started yet Mod Lib?
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Fran. You can write whatever you like on ethics or morals but in the end I don’t think the majority of Australians could give a rats toss bag about asylum seekers and I’ll go further and say that they probably wouldn’t be all that concerned if an Australian ship fired a shot across the bow of these boats. The simple fact is that the majority of Australians just don’t want these people here however unethical or immoral that may be.
by enjaybee on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Have I misread this post? You are referring to the ALP when you talk abiout “people they try to protect” aren’t you? Or did I misunderstand?
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:10 pm
You could have gotten more mileage out of that insult if you had said:
“Have your Special school holidays started yet Mod Lib?”
Why, oh why do I help?????
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:11 pm
I’m obviously talking about the Greens, do you agree?
You Moron!
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:13 pm
Mm
But but but , what about those HUGE stories broken by Vexnews and IA?
by Diogenes on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:14 pm
So the Greens had the choice of supporting Oaky’s bill to protect the Greens?
Huh?
Now your post is even more confusing than before….
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:14 pm
enjaybee. spot on.
and as one of the major parties the ALP has to ask itself does it vacate the AS debate, and just hand it to the Libs and in the same act hand them ongoing electoral advantage.
is that the best thing the ALP do for the country. I say no it isn’t.
hence they need to work hard at finding the balance between deterent, and the maintenance of human rights and protections. i believe both can be achieved simultaneously.
I hope the committee does too.
by middle man on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Nop
I’m happy with that
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:16 pm
BW@4704 said:
This is an attempt to win an argument by equivocation. It seems as if there are choices –but are they choices, or are they merely the appearance of choice.
The idea of choice implies rational and informed decision-making. For the choice to be free, all technically feasible options must be on the table. Only then can the failure of a party to choose the best of them be criticised.
If someone for example, were to urge someone to commit a murder, offering them a choice of dates and methods and perhaps even victims, and the person were to stand on principle and decline, would one criticise him for failing to cut a deal? Suppose the urger threatened to kill specified people if the person didn’t commit the murder? Let’s say rather than choose one of the options, the person contacted the police letting them know as much as they did and then fled, only to find out later that the specified persons were killed. Would we say that the person being blackmailed into murder had been a purist and was accountable for more deaths? That would be outrageous.
That’s how matters stand here. There were no ethically sound choices available. A far better technically feasible choice was available but the major parties would not grant it and they are the majority. Accordingly, responsibility for this policy lies with them, not us. Give us a policy we can support and we will support it, but we won’t be party to refugee capture and storage and refugee trading. That’s something the major parties need to sort through without our help.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm
exactly Diog… I laugh when I hear of sacked reporters starting up ‘new media’ enterprises as a competitor… yeah right. the old order might be going broke, but its still completely dominant.
by middle man on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm
bed time.
by middle man on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Mod Lib,
You are a simple inarticulated moron.
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:18 pm
A corker from Andrew Elder
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/nobbled.html
by victoria on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Mod Lib,
I cannot judge what people think about it just as you cannot unless we go out and talk to everyone.
We, as individuals, will never know if it was a success or not in cutting through to the public and there is no point in trying to argue either way. It is all ” I think, you think ” which gets a bit childish after one or two posts.
My observation was after it was done the intensity of the shrill brigade seems to have waned. To me that is a good result.
Time to move on.
by Doyley on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Mm
The reality is that the population get bugger all of their political information from independent blogs.
by Diogenes on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:20 pm
My observation was after the Carbon Tax was introduced, we had a Minister gloating, dancing and singing and the Opposition looking serious and disturbed while the public talked about how expensive it was to get by these days and wondering how much prices were going up.
If you think that is good for the government, then so be it.
Who knows, perhaps you are right and it worked a treat. Would be strange for this government to have communicated well, but there is always a first time I guess!
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Shellbell …. re the Tour starting in Belgium
__________
You are not I gather much of a Tour fan or you would not have asked that question
We’ve watched it for nearly 20 years
One of the great events on SBS
It often starts in countries near France…once the first stages ran from London to the Channel…the tour often visit other countries. too….last year they crossed the Pyrennes into Spain for several days and have done the same in Italy and Switzerland and once into Germany near Strasburg.. and also into Luxemburg too
One of the great sporting events and a triumph of French technology with it’s wonderful photography
Crossing borders makes it a more European event
of course the French have seldom had a winner in all the years we have watched..the major winner have been Indurain(Spanish)5 times… and Armstrong US) 7 times’
by deblonay on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:22 pm
I have joints, what are you talking about?
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:22 pm
BTW that Reachtel poll has KAP only getting 2% of the vote in Dobell.
by Diogenes on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Only Grattan could try and spin another leaked Liberal document into a positive for Abbott. Truly incredible.
by Dario on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Dario
I just linked piece from Elder giving Grattan a serve. Gold
by victoria on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Have you noticed any significant increases in prices Mod Lib?
Let me rephrase that; have you noticed that something has actually cost you more money to buy than before the start of the carbon price, Mod Lib
by Centre on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Its interesting he didn’t manage to scrape off some of the fleeing ALP vote (like he did in the recent Qld election where he took as much if not more from the ALP than LNP).
by Mod Lib on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Ha ha just watching replay of AFL program. They showed Miss Sophie on qanda being reviled by Simon collapsing. They were very unimpressed Sophie!
by victoria on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:29 pm
ml
I believe centre’s point is that you are smoking them.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Rex Douglas 4937
I am afraid he will – part of his attraction to the rednecks is his dog-whistle that he is anti-immigrant (particularly muslim). The reference to Howard’s policy, the threat to fire on boats, complaining about illegals, the NRMA etc are all very deliberately used.
Labor’s only hope is ‘to stop the boats’ ASAP.
by CO on Jul 5, 2012 at 10:31 pm