Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@Micael/495
Fudge Bucket! Hog Wash! There is nothing wrong with the NBN and no you won’t pay higher prices for NBN!
Fibre is the right technology for Australia due to the distance and FTTN and other technologies won’t give us the same value for money.
by zoidlord on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:22 am
bluegreen: She can resign
by McFly Marty on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:22 am
Lets not be defeatist
A policy that the Vic ALP put forward had massive resonance and nearly helped them pull the election off.
Remember the school camp program. I got people talking and left the oppn floundering.
It came from outside the bureacracy was innovative and interesting. Its time Gillard started finding a series of new things.
by bluegreen on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:23 am
From past experience, every female leader has been rubbished in the past, ALSO men do nor like a woman in charge, they get enough of that AT HOME!.
by 1934pc on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:24 am
Fran Kelly may be a low flyer, her inaccuracy in reporting of factual policy matters is not unusual.
Hardly a day goes by without someone having to point that she is wrong in fact. Fran does her “O.K. O.K. O.K.” over the top of the person pointing this out and moves right along. Kelly usually reports in a way that denigrates Labor and promotes the coalition.
Ignorance nor naivety are satisfactory explanations for a senior professional journalist. She is a shill for her choose side, plain and simple.
The ABC was salted with Coalition shills during the Howard era and we live with the consequence of that now.
Opinion polls demonstrate that our disgracefully biased media can make a significant number of Australians believe almost anything.
Bruce Guthrie, ex News Ltd editor stated that journalists were not told what to write, it was understood that they knew what they had to write. Crap journalists writing crap and serving sectional interest over the national interest.
They have worked hard at earning their place, were the dogs piss, at the bottom of the totem pole of respected professions.
by Bill B. on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:25 am
Mithrandir @ 499
Very droll
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:25 am
bemused
I am a woman, and I can see that the PM being female is a hinderance. My daughters are both doing very well in their world. As you know my older daughter is studying electrical engineering and his the only girl in her course. I do not constrain their thoughts at all. It is the reality of what the PM faces.
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:25 am
regarding our female premiers. which of them took charge in a ‘healthy’ position? Bligh’s position wasn’t bad, but the govt was lloking long in the tooth, and polling suggested they should have lost her first election. KK was handed a grenade…
by middle man on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:26 am
1934pc @ 503
Rubbish!
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:27 am
mm
True
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:28 am
victoria @ 506
You listen to confessions too much. Oh, and maybe kezza too.
Forgot you had 2 daughters. I have 2 grand-daughters. I will mentor them to accept no limits and that gender is not an issue.
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:30 am
Do you think Julie Bishop being forced to admit to Hugh Riminton this morning that a Coalition government would indeed take back Pension increases from all pensioners, handed over to them due to putting a price on Carbon pollution, will be a game changer?
Hugh said he had to try really hard to get her to admit that is what they will do, but admit it she did.
Also Sophie Mirabella is being too cute by half, but factually correct in so far as the Coalition is concerned, when she states that the Price on Carbon is ‘bad for the environment’, as they are running with the line that CO2 Emissions will increase by 8% by 2020. Ergo, as a result of CO2 being bad for the environment, if you accept that(which not all in the Coalition accept), then, ipso facto, more emissions= ‘bad for the environment’, by that reckoning.
Of course it’s disingenuous as hell to say it because the aim of putting a Price on Carbon is to bend the curve of increasing CO2 emissions downward over time. However the actuality of the thing has never got in the way of cherry-picking useful facts from the totality of the policy for the Coalition.
A very large number of them these days are lawyers and journalists after all.
by C@tmomma on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:32 am
middle man @ 507
That is true, except I can’t remember WA when Carmen Lawrence took over. She mis-handled the Easton affair which didn’t help her.
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:32 am
bemused
I listen to myself. I have lived long enough to have observed and exoerienced life as a woman!
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:33 am
c@tmomma
The coalition do bullshit really well, and it appears that a fair chunk of the msm are aiding and abetting
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:34 am
But I can’t say that JG had a bad start. For all the talk on here regarding the change of PM’s, in the weeks after taking over she posted a 55-45 newspoll. But then that was before three key things happened… 2 of her own doing and 1 of anothers doing. But it’s all in the past now.
by middle man on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:35 am
You know something is bad when you end up on the same side as Rupert Murdoch.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/murdochs-take-on-cruise-holmes-divorce/story-e6freuz0-1226414257084
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:36 am
bemused. i can’t help with Lawrence either. not sure what her position was.
by middle man on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:36 am
Bem,used
Name me an Australian one that didn’t?.
by 1934pc on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:37 am
@SenatorWong: I’m going all out today, entering the digital age. Check out my new website – http://t.co/gmDxinBB
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:37 am
guytaur
I am with Rupert on this one too!!!
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:38 am
victoria @ 513
Then you must have noticed how the number of female political leaders in the world has increased remarkably and how spectacularly successful some have been.
You may also have noticed things like how news readers and reporters on TV have gone from being all stodgy males to being around 50% female. You must have noticed the increase in the number of women who are prominent in all walks of life.
As a male I have noticed and applaud it.
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:38 am
As a Queenslander, I am afraid I concur with Victoria about the PM’s sex being a hinderance to her up here. I can only comment from what I hear from my friends and colleagues – mostly in the 25 to 50 year old age group. They won’t vote for a female PM. Hell, one young woman won’t vote for her because of her earlobes. Really.
Bligh won because the opposition was terrible – as some one up thread mentioned – Flegg and the Borg on day one of the campaign could not say who would be premier should they win. Downhill from there.
by hugh moran on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:39 am
bemused
Yeah I noticed the G20. Two female leaders out of 20. Remember we make up 50% of the population. Also remember last time JG was directed to the bus for the wives of the leaders.
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:40 am
@delimiterau: Qld dumps whole of government email project: http://t.co/RFttr8uD
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:42 am
Was he together with James looking at their reflection in a window?
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:42 am
1934pc @ 518
Oh, you will always be able to point to the “convoy of no consequence” set to show they have been rubbished, but in the more normal population they are not rubbished because of their gender.
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:43 am
Warning : Just received an phone call guess whose voice was at the other End
Message from Abbott
Telling the Residence of the household, they will be paying the carbon tax every time they talk on the phone,sleep,eat,drink ,etc
The only way to stop it is to vote for Liberals
this is lame if Abbott is starting to use this tactic
by Meguire Bob on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:43 am
Tricot
‘Bluntly, nobody likes taxes. Nobody likes a new tax. The Oz electorate does not like the CT. It has not liked any tax that I can think of in the past 50 years.’
Exactly. So how did Gillard bugger this up to the extent she has given that the carbon scheme isn’t even a tax.
How did she so badly manage the communication on this?
And why dosen’t she defend herself when she’s called a lier?
Smile and waddle. Smile and waddle.
That’ll work.
by rosemour on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:44 am
TH
Funny! But i have to say that katie holmes has looked like a zombie since she hooked up with TCruise. What the heck did they do to her?!!!
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:44 am
@Tadlette: Leaked cables show Howard refused offer for Gitmo detainee to return home, had him charged w/war crime instead http://t.co/tRVgzCmx @NOH8ER
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:44 am
MB
For real??
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
@edyong209: Watching Rupert Murdoch take on Scientology is a little like watching Alien vs. Predator. http://t.co/Wn3I2Q8T
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
(ted Monday, July 2, 2012 at 11:32 am | Permalink
{Do you think Julie Bishop being forced to admit to Hugh Riminton this morning that a Coalition government would indeed take back Pension increases from all pensioners, handed over to them due to putting a price on Carbon pollution, will be a game changer?
Hugh said he had to try really hard to get her to admit that is what they will do, but admit it she}
This is very bad for business now as our generation will not spend ,
So will he take back tne extras from now so u have to pay it back ,
So eti es you get hope when a question like this is ask then it fades
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
@527
What planet do you live on?
This shit’ll work a treat.
The average Australian is as dumb as a stump.
A dumb, ignorant, semi literate stump.
by rosemour on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:46 am
Yeah victoria
its a recorded message , should have hung up as soon as i heard his voice
by Meguire Bob on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:46 am
Bemused
That!, is not an answer!.
by 1934pc on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:46 am
victoria @ 523
Those 2 are in mighty powerful positions.
JG did the right thing and laughed off the bus incident. It just showed that when is not well known outside Australia and it was not a calculated insult but an ill-informed presumption.
by bemused on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:46 am
Men may be used to being nagged by the women in their lives but they accept it from mothers, wives, daughters but not from politicians. And when it comes to mono-tonal nagging no one is worse than the PM. Seriously she needs to stop lecturing Australians in that mono-tonal nag if she wants people to start listening to her again.
by davidwh on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:47 am
MB
They are called robocalls. Strange that they have resorted to this tactic
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:47 am
lol rosemour @ 527
you are probably right
by Meguire Bob on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:47 am
bemused
Yes up there with the White House a few years ago using the NZ flag instead of the Australian one.
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:48 am
Victoria agree
The phone number is recorded as private number or no number available
by Meguire Bob on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:49 am
When it becomes evidently clear the problem is Gillard (and right now there’s still stuff in the air, although I’m 90% convinced) things will get better
by spur212 on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:49 am
Can someone tell me why is it necessary that Charities are allowed to ring on private/unlisted numbers? If I was ringing up every business in QLD asking for a job every so often, the Employers would get pissed?
by zoidlord on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:50 am
MB
It’s a sign this excuse for a human being is getting desperate and unhinged.
by 1934pc on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:50 am
On the robocalls. You may remember episodes of the Simpson’s highlighting the use of those.
They are really hated by punters. The voter targeted most of the time ends up voting against the party and message used by the Robocallers.
The only question here is has it reached the same saturation point that voters are reacting the same way as their counterparts in the US.
by guytaur on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:50 am
‘They are called robocalls. Strange that they have resorted to this tactic’
Why is it strange?
It’ll work for crap sake don’t you get it.
They’re doiong it because it works.
Hello ALP hello out there…anyone from the ALP???
See how it’s done.
Here’s an idea. Copy Abbott. You might cut through. Can’t hurt.
by rosemour on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:50 am
hugh moran
The question was asked how does Qld improve for Labor, and my response was to have a male leader. Does not matter who, just that the leader be male. Sadly, I believe that is what would improve Qld’s support for Labor. The only other thing that may help is the Ashby/Slipper matter blowing up for the LNP in Qld
by victoria on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:50 am
http://www.smh.com.au/national/us-did-howard-a-favour-20110820-1j3k3.html
Thanks for this reminder
by my say on Jul 2, 2012 at 11:51 am