Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Good Morning Bludgers!
Another day of blue skies and sunshine here but unfortunately no beach for the cherubs and I today.
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:20 am
BB
That was my’ ver first thought
When i read about mr ‘overland
Liberals here my be no bettrr the newman
by my say on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:24 am
Thingee on the tele last night about Coles using bread products imported frozen and sold in their stores. Is it known whether the frozen product that Brumbys use is Australian or foreign made?
by PoK on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:28 am
Remember I posted the letter from my butcher pushing the BS on how high the carbon price would lift electricity bills.
Check out this follow up:
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:29 am
Yeah – but where are the fines – the only thing these grubs understand. Instead they agree *not to do it again*.
FFS – Taxpayers pick up the cost for all the *process etc* and nuthin happens.
by dave on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:35 am
Good morning.
SK:
I’ve missed the stuff about your butchers. Are they really packing up because of carbon pricing?
Seems a little unhinged to me.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:38 am
Its also just two days after abbott told everyone he would “Never Ever use megaphone diplomacy on the Indonesians” – then he turn around and did precisely that.
Not a mention of it in the media.
by dave on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:39 am
I’m soon heading off to the flatlands for another full day. I’ll have to keep an ear on the news for some MOAR from the courts this morning.
Enjoy the day Bludgers!
by BK on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:41 am
ugh … Let’s hope the new owners have a vision that includes the correct use of the apostrophe. If you’re going to butcher carcasses for a living and therefore predispose the degradation of the environment, surely orthodox syntax is not too much for which to hope.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:42 am
Confessions,
No, they were selling out to new owners but he sends out regular funny emails but of late they were getting very political (pro LNP). The last one he sent out was on how the carbon price was going to inflate the electricity bills (at very inflated LNP style rates). I posted that here.
I, and I suspect many others, sent in emails saying thanks but I support a carbon price and I won’t be spending my money in businesses that don’t. I also added that owners who politicised their businesses stood to lose half of their customers.
Seems possible to me the new owners may have thought so too.
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:43 am
osted Friday, July 6, 2012 at 8:28 am | Permalink
Thingee on the tele last night about Coles using bread products imported frozen and sold in their stores. Is it known whether the frozen product that Brumbys use is Australian or foreign made? 51
POK
Thats why i make my own bread. In bread machine
Buy the SOUTH australian LUDEKE, brand, flour from sa.
Think the spelling of the name not quite correct. , but BK will gell us
Wonderful product.
by my say on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:45 am
Hope clive does this everyday.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/clive-palmer-bob-katter-set-for-political-showdown-at-next-election/story-fncynkc6-1226418510249
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:46 am
SK:
Ta.
Good point about owners who politicise their businesses. One of the real estate agents here is very political, and consequently no locals will use his agency. Dumb.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:47 am
…whatever his employer tells him to.
by Son of foro on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:48 am
It must be Newspoll weekend this weekend because the OO is carrying Ruddstoration nonsense from Richo.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:49 am
Think ive just resigned from pollbludger
I woul never pass ms ‘s frans exams
Seems proper english is just more important than anything.
Try a sweet beautifful child who is having problems holding a pen
Through low muscle tone , thats her mothers goal for her,
Not bloody syntax
by my say on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:50 am
Did abbott tell palmer to rack off and win a seat the tories don’t already have if he really wants to enter the Parliament ?
by dave on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:54 am
FB @4399 yesterday and Guytaur
My question yesterday was simply “how many ASs have to drown before Greens’ “principles” are modified to match reality?”
Guytaur reposted several response “I’ve told you the answer” without giving any answer.
FB writes another 650 words of rhetoric.
“facile”, to quote FB.
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:55 am
Wasn’t it *Gillard Gooone* by 30 June 2012 as his last big call? Call number 200 at that.
by dave on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:56 am
confessions
Yep, leadership nonsense, plus the boats.
At least new twist with Admiral Abbott manning the Gunboats.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:56 am
confessions
Yep, leadership nonsense, plus the boats.
At least new twist with Admiral Abbott manning the Gunboats.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:56 am
FB @5108
I rest my case about your rhetoric.
Again “principle” rules supreme, in this case so called “syntax” (sic)
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:58 am
dave
Nah, just told clive he has to door knock,and stand at bus stations.
Something I doubt abbott has ever done.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:59 am
My Say @ 5115
Don’t take too much notice of FB.
Apostrophes are a matter of punctuation, not syntax.
FB’s vocabulary is a bit wanting in this regard.
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:00 am
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/nobbled.html
Andrew Welder very critical of Grattan’s attitude and poor journalism.
I am in a very angry mood this morning after listening to news of the refusal of the Coal even to take part in any round table on AS. I don’t have any solution, myself, but at least Pyne and Co could engage. But no, they are determined to have the govt fail so that they can continue their attacks, just as they refused to engage with the C’tte on CC.
by lizzie on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:01 am
Abbott says Bye Bye Baby.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/14147941/kids-highlight-policy-hypocrisy/
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:04 am
Retired Admiral Chris Barrie provided some
Interesting views and insights on the idea of towing back boats on RN Breakfast this morning. It was a good interview.
by Burgey on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:05 am
Actually had a comment posted in a Barrie Cassidy article.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-06/cassidy-palmer-vs-coalition/4112812
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:08 am
ABC 774 reports that The Age on Twitter reports that the Herald Sun’s editor is no longer the editor.
by triton on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:09 am
confessions
do you really think leadership speculation is merely a product of the msm?
this is the type of blame shifting and paranoia that has been a feature of JG from day one – she has yet to take responsibility for gaffs and erros (esp ascendancy) but first to point finger like many here to anyone to explain the low polls. Now she has nowhere to turn. Where will the party go in several months?
by geoffrey on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:11 am
Actually back some years ago abbott looked like he was in trouble getting re-elected and he actually had to do some work – for example seeking votes, support at red traffic lights from his *captured* audience at a major intersection in the Manly area – for people who know Sydney it was the intersection of Manly and Sydney Roads at Balgowlah.
But he has been safe in his seat for years now.
by dave on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:11 am
by triton on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:11 am
Speaks for its self.
[Meanwhile, Ecuador’s foreign minister said sexual assault allegations in Sweden against Julian Assange are laughable, but no ruling has been made on the WikiLeaks founder’s asylum application.
“Personally, (I think) this is hilarious,” Ecuadoran chief diplomat Ricardo Patino said, explaining Assange “is charged because his condom broke”.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/technology/wikileaks-publishing-millions-of-syria-emails-as-ecuador-says-assange-charges-hilarious/story-e6frfro0-1226418005096#ixzz1znCgqYa3
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:12 am
MY say
Syntax refers to the structure of language. Clumsy or incorrect structure can change the meaning, as we all hear constantly in radio news bulletins read/written by young reporters especially.
eg “a man was shot by police walking down the street”
The “walking down the street” is of course misplaced and reports that it was the police walking down the street.
FB’s syntax from her post:
“surely orthodox syntax (sic) is not too much for which to hope.”
would be in a simpler form and structure thus: “surely it is not too much to hope for orthodox syntax(sic)”
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:13 am
Faine on 774 confirms the news re HS editor.
by triton on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:14 am
FB
But,but,but… is syntax really more important than asylum seeker drownings?
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:15 am
psyclaw
What’s the “(sic)” for there?
by triton on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:16 am
in other words richardson, the fallibly bespoken self anointed lord of labor’s demise, in this instance is right … “THE revelation in Newspoll, published in this newspaper on Monday, further demonstrated just how deep a hole Julia Gillard has dug for herself and her government. To be polling 22 per cent in Queensland is the most graphic demonstration imaginable of the annihilation to come.”
apart from leadership change what is the good news?
.
by geoffrey on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:16 am
Not sure if people are aware but refirigeration gasses went up substantially from July 1 much higher than the level attributed to the $23mt on CO2 emissions. According to the government it was to be around 75% however suppliers have been raising their prices by much higher % than this. This factor will impact on any business who relier heavily on refrigeration of chilled and frozen products and would include business like butchers and fishos. I hear one fisho in Darwin who claimed his refrigeration gas supplier had raised their prices by 375% which means the cost to replace refrigeration gasses went up from $5k to $20k.
It is accepted that refrigeration gasses have a much greater greenhouse effect than CO2 however the reality is that this will impact on business reliant on refrigeration to operate their business.
Not all the stories will be rubbish and easy to dismiss as spin.
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:17 am
‘The Australian’ reports this morning that the AFP have yet to interview Mr Slipper on the cabcharge charges.
This might mean that the AFP is interviewing other people rather than just following a clabcharge electronic or paper trail.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:17 am
My Say: do you mean Lauke flour?
Their mill is very close to where I used to live and their flour is certainly used by all of the Barossa’s famous bakeries
by Danny Lewis on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:18 am
Surely removing fuel from boats in heavy seas is equivalent to manslaughter?
by lizzie on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:20 am
DWH
I assume you are referring to stories such as, ‘CO2 is weightless.’ and ‘Climate science is crap’ and ‘The temperature are the same’.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:20 am
Boer. On RN last night I heard an AFP officer or spokesperson describe it as Mr Slipper has not yet made himself available to us… or something along those lines. it was clear they had wanted to have it done by now… not sure why he’s delaying them.
by middle man on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:21 am
Geoffrey @ 5129
Obviously you did not read Psephos’s first hand, insider’s account of how JG became leader, posted here the other night.
Sounds like you prefer Alan Jones’s account.
Here is Psephos’s comment @ 3828
I said somewhere above that I worked for Feeney. There was no “plot”, and hence no plotter-in-chief. There was a Caucus panic when Rudd’s polling collapsed and lots of people began to think they’d lose their seats. Shorten, Feeney, Arbib and Farrell acted as they did because they were the leaders of the majority faction in Caucus, and because Caucus was demanding that something be done. It all blew up in a week. If there had been an actual plot, he would have been deposed months earlier. But there was no candidate until Gillard was persuded on the Wednesday morning that she had to act.
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:22 am
you would think so Lizzie. surely criminal in some way.
by middle man on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:22 am
Scnappi
Indeed.
Memo to self: Stay well away from Ecuador.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:23 am
lizzie
Sometimes when things are too bad to be true, they are too bad to be true. Do we have evidence that removing fuel was done? I remain sceptical.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:24 am
Boerwar
Me too , rather go to Peru.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:24 am
Reported on the ABC this morning that the FR has published more information on Slipper expenses that apparently he spent around $600 in one day on taxi rides from Budrim to Brisbane airport and return on a day he didn’t travel by plane. People are still digging around.
Haven’t got the FR yet but will check out the article later.
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:25 am