Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
smithe
As I said earlier, i daresay Commonwealth and slipper lawyers have a strategy in place. I am hoping anyway!!
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:10 pm
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:11 pm
So, someone has leaked the Liberal Party hymn sheet…
The leaks continue. They have kept admirable party discipline since the ascension of Mr Abbott as LOTO. Will he be able to hold it all together until the election? Or will the bile ooze between the cracks and create a damburst?
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:12 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/i-should-not-have-to-comply-insists-journalist-lewis-20120706-21l83.html
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Did anyone here hear an interview on NewsRadio yesterday around 4PM with someone who seemed to be the Mayor of Christmas Island? He took a swing at both Pyne and Abbott over their remarks on the Navy-as-NRMA and “turning around the boats”. He said the people of Christmas Island were coping well with the influx and merely cautioned that adeqauate resources needed to be maintained. He sounded remarkably levelheaded.
Can anyone supply a link?
by Fran Barlow on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Boerwar
Saw a tweet exchange from Andrew Elder with someone yesterday. The leaks suggest issues within the LNP. Elder said something about JBishop being next leader if Abbott is rejected.
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Must have been a shibboleth (probably Victorian Era) because Mum & one of my teachers were addicted to saying, The opposite (antonym) of “I can” is “I won’t”.
I confess to having used it myself. Frequently.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:15 pm
The Oz has some more info on proceedings (no paywall):
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/ashby-conspiracy-claims-backfire/story-fndckad0-1226418811018
by trawler on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:16 pm
BW:
Not me BW. I’ve never denied being a red. As you should recall, a denied being “a doctrinaire red”.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:17 pm
trawler
Why has it backfired is my question?
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:18 pm
bw
You also continue this dog whistle. People are drowning due to actions by Labor, Greens and LNP parties. Not forgetting of course primarily the actions of AS and the smugglers.
Labor is as much to blame as is are the other parties except the LNP parties who are the ones ramping this issue up to exploit for political purposes.
Lets wait for the committees to work out solutions.
I think you will agree this was a brilliant move by Gillard. It highlights to the voters that yes the Coalition are playing games with peoples lives.
Not an accusation you can level against Labor or the Greens.
by guytaur on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Rex Douglas
Maybe. I haven’t heard. All I know is that she comes across as a genuine leftie on The Wrap.
bemused
Cassandra Wilkinson would sort them up, except she’s based in Sydney. Although she seems more centre than left, and might even agree with the IPA half the time (such as on car industry assistance) I think she would give them a damn good thrashing for some of their more extreme positions.
by triton on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:18 pm
I wonder if Ashby could try an subpoena all communication between Slipper and Albanese?
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Would the last moderate leaving the liberal Party please switch on the lights.
by Bill B. on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:20 pm
DTT has had a long rant this morning about how the government should be softening the impact on small/medium businesses.
Ok, firstly, this process has been underway for a very long time. The legislation has been locked in for, what, a year now? To suddenly wake up on July 1 and say “omgz I never realised that X or Y or Z about my business is going to cost me some money what am I going to do all of a sudden to fix it up, why doesn’t the government HELP ME” is a bit sad.
Secondly, as many others have pointed out, including – very clearly on Q&A and other places – the Prime Minister herself, the design of the system is such that there are increased costs, and those costs are expected to be passed on by businesses. Consumers get compensation, not the regular businesses, to deal with the increased prices.
The whinge response is “but we can’t pass costs on”. Well, that’s great because it’s basically unproveable/impossible to disprove, so it’s a great line if you just want to whinge. But even if you haven’t got your act together in the large amount of lead up time, and even if you can’t afford to improve your energy/refridgerant/whatever efficiency, the increased costs for most businesses are on the order of the 1%, maybe 2 or 3% in exceptionally intensive businesses. Other costs, like fuel/transport costs, exchange rate fluctuations, loan interest rates etc all vary over time in unpredictable ways, frequently with much greater headline cost impacts than those from the carbon price, and businesses just have to deal with those, but THIS one has to be softened or whatever. Give me a break.
All the evidence I’ve seen so far is that the carbon price is doing exactly what it was designed to do – provide a modest cost readjustment leading to some encouragement for rebalancing GHG emitting behaviours. It hasn’t been severe and the impact economy-wide should be small currently. I’m sure there are some businesses that were struggling who may be pushed over the edge, but small/medium businesses have a very high failure/turnover rate anyway. It’s a tough gig, no doubt, and the people who start up small businesses are brave souls who should be applauded, but let’s not pretend that small businesses don’t go broke every day of the week in the best of times.
by Jackol on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Jackol
DTT has been ranting about the increased cost to small business for ages now.
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:21 pm
davidwh
What illegal conduct have Albo and slipper engaged in?
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:22 pm
And then the GFC happened. Coincidence?
by Son of foro on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Did brough and doane put in what was asked of them ,or will they do what ashby has done.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:24 pm
I’ve just received this from Bickfords – a reponse to my complaint about Bickfords allowing Tony Abbott to use their company for one of his stunts. Those who also complained would have the same.
No mention of the buckets of government funding they received to allow them to reduce their water and energy usage, of course.
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:24 pm
The Finnigans @ 5330
Agree 100% however even if they do condemn Abbott as they should his support will go up with a big boost to the redneck vote
by CO on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:26 pm
This is all very well, but I don’t trust any message saying “click on here for help”. I keep getting them from Banks (Comm, ANZ, Westpac) when I don’t even have an online account with them (usually after I have received an email via hotmail). So I just delete.
by lizzie on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:26 pm
The justice hearing the case made more sense in the article above than all the other allegations and material published and posted elsewhere.
victoria the ruling was very clear. As Slipper’s legal team and Albanese raised the possibility of criminal conspiracy they have provided Ashby with a get-out reason for not providing the information requested. It was a pretty intelligent move by Ashby’s legal team.
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:26 pm
victoria 5365 I was only kidding.
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:27 pm
guytaur
Dog whistling is saying something by pretending to say something else in order to send a secret signal to some potential supporters that you are at one with them. The reason for the secrecy is because the unspoken, dog whistled, position is on the nose.
So, not me.
BTW, I appreciate that you are one Greens Party supporter who acknowledges publicly that the Greens Party are partially accountable for drownings.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Ratsak
You do NOT know what you are talking about.
Take a medium sized to small local grocery store – with drinks fridge, large freezer, dairy case. Electricity use will be about 200,000 KWH which say 4000 per week which means extra cost is $92 per week or $13 per day (just a little less than one hour of staff time – more if they employ school kids). The point is that this additional amount comes directly out of the pocket of the owner, assuming they cannot pass it on. So the owner could be taking a pay cut of $92 per week.
Now most small local retailers probably have no more than 20 customers per hour and not large numbers of items – so 100 items sold per hour – which means that each item needs to go up 1 cent if the full cost is passed on. Will work IF Coles and Woolies drop their prices
BUT for the large stores their costs are probably 5 times more but their through put is more like 200 customers per hour each buying 100 items, so the increase for them will be 5/200/100 which means each item needs only to go up 0.025 of a cent.
Get it!!
by daretotread on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Actually Slipper is under investigation for alleged criminal activity.
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:29 pm
So the Court says that Albo and Slipper shouldn’t have hit the headlines with Ashby and tells the parties to seek mediation to try to resolve it.
Does that mean that none of the text messages involving LNP, etc. will come out?
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:30 pm
All what the Australian article has shown, is there is big doubt to ashby story, and defending involvement of the liberals and lewis
Slipper and commonwealth hasnt backfired at all
by Meguire Bob on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:30 pm
5362 – david – he could, but how would it be relevant?
by Burgey on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Leonie@ 3569
I’ve just received this from Bickfords – a reponse to my complaint about Bickfords allowing Tony Abbott to use their company for one of his stunts. Those who also complained would have the same.
Yes, an identical e-mail has just landed in my in-box.
by Brian Mc on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:30 pm
He can try anything he likes. Won’t change much. It’s pretty clear what has gone on here.
by Jake on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:31 pm
lizzie -
Yes, I had the same reaction reading that article.
I’m pretty sure a lot of those pop up messages you got on websites saying “Your computer or network might be infected” were actually gateways for viruses themselves, or at least just click bait for dodgy products, like those “Ordinary mum found cure for cancer that the government doesn’t want you to know about” ads.
Anyway, the article did at least provide a link to a .gov.au site which is presumably legit.
by Jackol on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:31 pm
By the way
The business that first alerted me to the impact of electricity cost on the business viability closed its doors this week.
by daretotread on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:31 pm
bw
I acknowledge only that the Greens are partially accountable for drownings in the limited sense that applies to the Labor Party. If it does not apply to the Labor Party it does not apply to the Greens.
That simple. No high moral ground for anyone here.
by guytaur on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Ashby has accused slipper of an criminal offense ie cabcharge fraud if there is doubt to his story, he and others including lewis and those in the liberals could be charged and face imprisonment for making false accusation
by Meguire Bob on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:32 pm
lizzie
Very wise. If you want to check just go to this government site
http://www.dns-ok.gov.au/ it automatically tells you if you are infected ot not.
by poroti on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:33 pm
DavidWH
If Ashby is not providing material because it may incriminate him in relation to a possible conspiracy to remove the speaker of the House, I’d say it opens the door for a judicial inquiry into this matter.
by gough1 on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:34 pm
BH 5377 basically yes. Personally I think the civil action was pretty soft to begin with however the contacts between Ashby, Brough and Lewis just murky the situation even more. A mediated result is the logical course of action.
I know some people want Slipper’s head and others want a Liberal conspiracy so logic may not prevail.
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Logic, and the evidence, is pointing at a Liberal conspiracy.
by Jake on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:36 pm
DTT – so what you are saying is that a small corner store has a higher cost base than Coles or Woolies. OMGZ someone call Alan Kohler and let him know.
Smaller stores don’t have economies of scale. Therefore they are impacted by higher costs more than bigger stores are.
We get that.
It’s also the case that corner stores sell things at higher prices than Coles or Woolies do – their business model already has to deal with that – they have an advantage in location or connection with the community or something along those lines. Whatever advantage they had in the past that allowed them to compete with Coles and Woolies will still be there with the carbon price. So, why assume that these costs can’t be passed on?
And as ratsak has been pointing out, you keep talking about absolute figures ($92 per week! $13 per day!) that are just meaningless out of context.
by Jackol on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:37 pm
gough using a tactic as a defence is not an admission of guilt so it would really depend on the strengths and weaknesses of each sides position. The point about what happened today is that by inferring a criminal conspiracy it provided Ashby with a genuine tactic to achieve his aim of wanting to see what the other side has before responding.
Basically I think each sides legal teams are playing tactical ping pong at present and we shouldn’t be confident about any assumptions we make at this point in the proceedings. It will just continue to play out.
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:38 pm
If lewis goes the does not incriminate line
The case most likely be thrown out on the 23rd of july
by Meguire Bob on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:38 pm
if the evidence is there the ALP need to push hard on this.
conspiracy the remove the 3rd (i think) highest office in the country? its wrong. and it wouldn’t matter which party was behind it.
by middle man on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Well it’s not a good move losing customers then, is it?
by Son of foro on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:39 pm
The government should then go after lewis, ashby under new guidlines
by Meguire Bob on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Ta, Victoria. How delicious it is! I must have MOAR!
Considering a defendant’s (esp the Commonwealth’s) *right of discovery – inc those thousands of texts – if Lewis thinks refusing the subpoena is a way to conceal the truth, he is, imo, wasting his time.
After the very well-publicised ways Rudd, the Commonwealth & Federal Police acted during Utegate, my mind still boggles at the utter stupidity of the DT’s and Ashby’s legal teams’ – as well as all those Lib legal eagles’ (esp L Bishop & G Brandis SC) – letting Ashby involve the Commonwealth and, ipso facto, the Federal Police.
*I’m assuming that the court involved allows the defendant/s discovery; but I haven’t checked for the specific court in question, so it may not.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Could it be another case of – Houston we have a problem
(Coincidentally, I was having a read through the Apollo 13 transcripts just this week. Very interesting.)
by Darn on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:42 pm
What the Greens don’t wish to acknowledge is that this country is deep down to its core…..Racist. That’s the elephant in the room. The individual Australians’ propensity for racism. It’s inherent, it’s taught and it’s rampant. BB gave a pretty good explanation of it earlier. All the good intensions and the odious, confected tears of Hanson-Young, Hockey and others wont change that.
Abbott, Hockey and company know every time an illegal boat is shown on nations tv screens the pictures reinforce the simmering racism that is always there. They play it to the hilt. Should they be roundly despised for their veiws?….of course they should. Are they?….no. Quite the opposite. Tones looking after us. Got our best interests at heart. Good old Tone. I can’t stress this enough…..this will cost the progressives in this country Labor, Green and eveyone else, Government.
You need to understand that people in bowling clubs, RSL clubs, caravan parks, small business, country pubs, cafes and everywhere that citizens congregate, people who would class themselves as decent, fair minded, salt of the earth Australians dont give a toss about ” some illegal mussos ” drowning in the Java Sea. They shouldn’t have been there in the first place ….should they? Thats the price they are paying for jumping the queue!
Every boat entrenches that racism. Can you imagine what is going to happen should the Government, as the Greens wish, start flying them in. The stick Abbott, Morrison and the shock jocks weild just got a lot larger and much more dangerous….and just think of the rorts. The trashy tabloid tv programmes would organise permanent crews at both the departure and arrival lounges.
The only winners out of all this are the opposition. It shouldn’t be a contest but it is. It’s a contest because the Government of the day is not being allowed to govern. To implement a policy, that imv, takes the explosive racism out of the equation.
The saddest thing about all this?
That there are friends, neighbours, workmates, people you meet in the day to day course of your life that just believe, emphatically, that a ‘ few dead mussos’ floating in the Java Sea aren’t all that important. The Greens apparently agree with them.
by Ian on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:42 pm
The point of the carbon price is that it motivates business owners to make a choice. Reduce energy use and save money, or continue paying higher prices. They can do this by getting energy efficient equipment, which is what the revenue raised by the Carbon price goes toward. That’s what people conveniently forget, they think that the revenue raised by the carbon price goes directly into Julia Gillard’s pocket or goes toward getting new furniture for the ALP head offices or something.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 6, 2012 at 12:42 pm