Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
DTT
Still you bullshit. Until you provide the TOTAL costs of business of your mythical business you are spinning crap.
Even your own numbers that stink like they’ve been pulled out out of your arse show exactly how small the impact will be. If your mythical firm is indeed facing an extra electricity cost of $92 per week, then assuming your other numbers of 100 items sold per hour and assuming this shop is only open 46 hours a week (not many hours for a grocery store) then raising the price of each item by 2c will cover the cost. ie on your own dodgy numbers the cost impact is less than half the value of the smallest coin in circulation. Your mythical customers are apparently going to abandon this shop for the difference of 10c on their average shop.
Your 100 items per hour are obviously averaging far more than $2 each or you’re expecting us to believe a shop grossing $200 per hour (less than $500k per year) is using 4MWh of power a week. So the cost impact as I and everyone else has noted is far less than 1%.
Of course all of this is even before we get to your fanciful claims of a small grocery store using 4MWh of power each week. That is 24kW of power continuously each hour, every hour all day, every day of the week. That is 100amps continuous draw at 240v. There is a damn lot of power being wasted if your grocery store with a drinks fridge (600w for a large 3 door unit), large freezer (1.5 kW for a 2 door unit) and dairy case (1.5 kW) is drawing anything like a continuous 24kW 24hrs a day 7 days a week. I’ve designed reasonably large clubs with gaming rooms full of pokies, cool rooms, bars and bistros that draw far far less power. If they really were grossing only $500,000 yet were churning through 200 MWh of power a year it’s no wonder they went out of business – and it had nothing to do with the miniscule impact of the Carbon Price.
Like I said, your don’t know what you’re talking about, your numbers are made up and even then just prove my point that the effects are miniscule. Unless you want to provide the real impact of the price rise against the firm’s real total business costs (not just made up rubbish) you’re just engaged in FUD and embarrassing yourself.
by ratsak on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:30 pm
DDT – it comes down to choice. Choose the location and business after having done thorough research as to whether the business will work. Mediocre outcome – don’t start the business. If you do – don’t scream when it goes down the tubes.
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Pasted as was paywalled.
Tweet this
COALITION orders turning back asylum boats could be legally disobeyed by the Australian navy or subject to High Court challenge, an international law expert says.
Australian National University law professor Don Rothwell said there was no firm legal basis for turning asylum boats around.
“There is nothing under Australian law which would permit a lawful order to be given to an officer or an Australian government official to seize and take control of these vessels and the persons on these vessels and to take them to a place beyond Australia,” Professor Rothwell told The Australian Online.
He said under the Howard government there was very little understanding of the practice’s legal basis.
“In the 10 years since the Howard government implemented these policies the Australian Defence Force has become much more rigid in terms of insisting on the lawfulness of orders that are given to it,” Professor Rothwell said.
.
. .
“There is the prospect that members of the Australian Defence Force may refuse such an order given to them.
“In addition to this … the potential for the policy be challenged in the courts is very high.”
Tony Abbott said today he believed the navy would be able to successfully turn around boats if the Coalition implemented the policy in government.
“It’s been done before and it can be done again,” the Opposition Leader told the Nine Network.
“The navy was professional enough to do it before and I don’t think it has lost any of its professionalism between then and now.”
Mr Abbott said it would still be up to individual navy commanders to decide if it was safe to turn boats around.
“It’s got to be the judgment of the commanders on the spot but where it can safely be done it ought to be an option,” he said.
Former navy and defence chief Chris Barrie said the policy was unwise and potentially dangerous. “I do worry about the idea that this will work,” the retired Admiral Barrie told ABC radio.
“We’ve seen already examples of boats being set on fire and other accidents.
“The problem about the policy is it drives people to very desperate measures, and I don’t think that is something we should promote.”
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by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:42 pm
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/rineharts-reach/295/
by Leroy on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:46 pm
It’s a high burden to get a matter summarily dismissed or permanently stayed. It isn’t easy. It may well be the matter is not permanently stayed but is then heard and dismissed when all the evidence is heard anyway.
If the case goes to a full hearing Ashby HAS to present his case, and the case will be subject to scrutiny. He who accuses must prove, and all that.
So, even if the application to permanently stay is not successful, you can bet a lot, if not all, of this stuff will be aired at the final hearing of the case anyway.
by Burgey on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Our NBN @OurNBN
NBN benefits for mining http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/429788/how_australia_resources_companies_can_mine_nbn_potential/
Expand
by zoidlord on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Appears Downer backs the PM on Malaysia.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/pm-disappointed-in-oppn-over-boat-group/story-e6frf7kf-1226419046352
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Heard Downer on radio about an hour ago – supports Malaysia in a round-about way.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Response from Bickford’s Cordials regarding an email I sent re: Abbott’s presser there on Wednesday:
by gloryconsequence on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Abbott dodging scutiny of his boat policy.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/oppn-yet-to-commit-to-asylum-policy-group/story-e6frfku9-1226418545348
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:58 pm
I’m just reading Bernard Keanes’ piece today re the leaked Lib Policy notes.
So Brandis has said today that the support for aboriginal recognition in the constitutional amendments shouldn’t be forthcoming unless it is introduced by an Abbot led Govt.
What planet does this mob really live on!
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 2:59 pm
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:02 pm
gloryconsequence
Notice the bickford replies does not acknowledge the reasons why people cpmplained, like letting abbott get political mileage with his fraudulent stunts.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:02 pm
gloryc, leone and others. I got the same reply from Bickfords. Have bought their lime juice cordial since forever so I sent back a note to ask why they had made no mention of the Federal Labor grants already received to clean up energy and water.
Bet there’s no response to that.
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:03 pm
BH
I’ve done the same. I’m not really expecting a reply.
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:04 pm
wow. Brumby’s boss has quit. That’s gotta be seen as a deterrent to the managers of other companies.
by middle man on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:05 pm
I’m wondering if anyone here could answer something.
recently I was talking to a women that works in Real Estate and we were discussing Maternity Leave as she has started planning her wedding and she asked .
Was it right that Tony Abbots purposed scheme would allow her and other women to take six months off on full pay and for those women in sales like employment, would the six months include the usually earn commissions or was it only the base salary.
P.S she isn’t a fan of Tony and no one she asked seemed to know the answer.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Onya, leone. We try to engender as much support as we can for local grocers, fruiterers, butchers etc who go out of their way to “value add” to their lines.
The home-made stuff, esp heat & eats, are sure-fire winners & getting too damned popular: my local makes a great fruit-salad – once always available, now seemingly never so when I want a couple of tubs! A fruiterer stocks local honeys and “old fashioned” lollies made by small factory in a near-by town – wicked chocolate coated honeycomb with y’r actual “really truly” chocolate and HONEY (most aren’t, esp with honey). The same shop sells heat & eats from town restaurants: Italian, Indian, Chinese, as well as fruit & jelly trifles like my late mum used to make. Several butchers have their own/ family properties and smoke houses, and one’s “continental” small-goods (inc venison) are so good people come from afar to buy them … always great meat to get cryopacked before trips to visit rellies & friends in the Deep South.
As the pundits tell Bizpeople Think globally; buy locally.
PS keep a lookout for the Soot Eefrikan BBQ salt in tall orange plastic shakers. Better than McCormacks at a fraction of the price!
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:06 pm
mexi… do you seriously think they have thought that far ahead??
by middle man on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Nah. Tone will make him Minister of Baking.
by Son of foro on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Be many more stories of abbotts leaked policies.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/07/06/the-coalitions-leaked-policy-notes-what-you-found/
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Middle Man – Hopefully someone has for there are many Women in sales employment that in six months can in a good market earn in commissions their base salary.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:10 pm
leone
Aha ! Tones was right when he said this “toxic tax” will cause job losses
by poroti on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Random thought on carbon pricing:
I had been wondering why the government was rumoured to be talking about bring the floating price for the ETS forward.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me – they will wear the flak from the people who don’t believe we should be doing anything regardless, it adds to business uncertainty, hardly lets Julia Gillard off any “lie” accusations, etc etc.
But then I wondered if the government may be thinking of or aware of boosting the reduction target.
The 5% on 1990 level was always the baseline minimum. I saw an article somewhere recently (Crikey maybe) that the conditions (related to international action) for going to a higher target (15% or whatever) could well already exist or be very close to existing.
If the target is lifted, the number of permits issued each year is going to have to be tightened significantly, and then the least-cost way of dealing with that is to have a floating price, and the current low international price of permits would become irrelevant soon enough.
It’s hard to see the domestic political case for lifting the target in the current climate, but … it might make sense, and I’d be crossing my fingers that this is in fact the case.
by Jackol on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Some moire tweets on the Brumbys issue -
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:15 pm
@Tzarimas: Sounds good enough for me! *imagining now* RT @OMGFacts: Researchers found that imagining doing exercises actually increases muscle strength
by guytaur on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:16 pm
What’s with Coalition’s obsession with Bakeries?
First it was the Costing’s on Nauru AS Policy, now it was some boss dude at Brumby’s company ?
by zoidlord on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Well, well. Acknowledgement that the Liberal Party flyers are not helpful
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:18 pm
OPT
Will do with the salt.
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Well it took six days for a job lose from the massive big huge giant tax
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:19 pm
How the Greens are commenting on ALP in Melb.
@AdamBandt: In Melb, Labor is preferencing the anti-gay climate deniers Family First ahead of the Greens http://t.co/IcpBZfYR
by guytaur on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Steve Gibbons@SteveGibbonsMP
@lyndalcurtis @TonyAbbottMHR Armed forces are NOT controled by Government. Only the Parliament is responsible for directing ADF. #dangerous
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:22 pm
For those wanting to complain some more to Bickfords – give them a serve on Facebook.
http://www.facebook.com/bickfords
Plenty of people have already had a go at them. Some bloke is even going to mail them back two unfinished bottles of cordial in protest. I wouldn’t go quite that far.
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Mexi. my experience of these things is that it’s normal to look at commssions and they’d probably use previous years tax return for income, or perhaps average of earnings in the six months prior to going on leave. i’d be surprised if they based it solely on base pay.
by middle man on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:23 pm
jackol – Fran Kelly spoke to Andrew ? from ANU a few mornings ago. He said that the 5% is almost there with what has already been achieved through reduction in deforestation and other avenues.
Said it will make the Oppn’s DAP plan easier to achieve and they won’t have to do much at all. I guess Abbott will pick up on this shortly.
So you could be right about the discussions. The Govt. may be going to square off with the Greens on an increased target in return for bringing the ETS forward.
I have a feeling the interview was on Monday morning and you may find it on the RN site. I am not much good at finding i/vws otherwise would look for you.
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Our NBN @OurNBN
We need to rethink the NBN rollout for regional Australia ASAP “@danthesouthsfan: The entire central west NSW miss out on fibre optic”
by zoidlord on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:25 pm
And here’s the full story on the Brumbys resignation.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-06/brumbys-boss-quits-over-carbon-tax-letter/4115044
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:27 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-06/former-defence-force-chief-warns-against-turning-boats-back/4114044
Collision ahead!
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:27 pm
mexicanbeemer
LOL – I might steal that observation for a tweet – hope you don’t mind.
by Think Big on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Think Big Cool, just correct the spelling error lose = lost
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:29 pm
BH
I find that sort of attitude a bit heartless. Most small business people are just ordinary people trying to survive. Many are retrenched employees looking to buy themselves a job with a payout.
Many do not know the traps and seek to buy a business roughly in their price range which they can manage. Few have either the money or the skill the “research” as you so smugly suggest.
For most their is an income rather less than a middle or lower range public servant and the owner tells self that “at least they are their own boss” to sort of justify what was probably a poor decision to go into business. Many are older people with very little chance of other types of work anyway.
When I was young and narrow minded I often derided the small business sector as so many do here (fairly standard ALP branch stuff) I have been there and done that. Now having actually BEEN there and DONE that I see it quite differently.
My comment is at least the businesses that try and fail have had a little bit of courage- more than sticking in a paper shuffling job with a boss they despise.
by daretotread on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:30 pm
@BH/5537
I suspect he’ll get some resignations in the Navy in near future…
by zoidlord on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Abbott might be worried about getting a grilling on Insiders for not agreeing to join the cross party talks so he’s making a gesture but the talks have to go his way I guess.
I can’t see Cassidy giving him a hard time on Sunday.
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:31 pm
This confirms what I said a few days ago, that Mr Abbott is (unwittingly) doing a great job of keeping inflation down. After the Brumby’s affair, retailers will be very reluctant to increase their prices lest they be accused of profiteering and blaming the “carbon tax”.
I do feel sorry for the franchisees of Brumby’s (also Donut King and Michel’s Patisserie) who have been placed in a bad position by Retail food Group. It is they who have to face an unhappy buying public. In our area is a Michel’s that is run by a very nice family and it would be unfair to see them suffer any customer backlash from this affair.
by citizen on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Mary Jo $200,000 bill for $92 crime,still has another case to answer,wonder how that will pan out.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-06/mary-jo-fisher-legal-costs-fight/4115008
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:31 pm
@ABCNews24: Professor @ian_hickie is in next looking at Fed. Govt plans to launch new #mentalhealth info website http://t.co/AhggUgUN
by guytaur on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Ovens. To cook the books ?
by dave on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:33 pm
I order you to have an option! Me tough guy!
by Son of foro on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:34 pm
And now for something completely different.
Abu Dhabi has come up with some rules for international tourists. Friendly police will be handing this out to tourists -
http://www.thenational.ae/deployedfiles/thenational/Sound%20and%20Vision/PDFs%20and%20others/proch.torsit.police1.jpg
This is a great idea. I hope Port Macquarie council can do something similar. The request to use only supervised beaches would save lives here if people took a bit of notice of it. As for asking for ‘respectful clothing’ – bring it on!
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:34 pm
This show actually has political satire sometimes.
@rglover702: The variety show lives. Thank God It’s Friday with @Wil_Anderson, @TommyDean_ and @anthonyackroyd @702sydney at 5.10. Music: Bushwackers.
by guytaur on Jul 6, 2012 at 3:35 pm